Builder Incentives JSON Feed
{
"cards": [
{
"address": "815 Liberty Park Drive",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 3.06,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 1.88,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "11 E AZTEC Lane",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "11-e-aztec-lane-belton",
"price": 320000,
"price_per_sqft": 163.18,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1961,
"sqft_delta": 12,
"subdivision": "Morgans Point Resort Sec 5",
"year_built": 2015
},
{
"address": "3632 North Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "3632-north-drive-belton",
"price": 459900,
"price_per_sqft": 237.43,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1937,
"sqft_delta": -12,
"subdivision": "Pine Terrace Sub",
"year_built": 1996
},
{
"address": "3172 Auction Barn Road",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "3172-auction-barn-road-belton",
"price": 290000,
"price_per_sqft": 147.81,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1962,
"sqft_delta": 13,
"subdivision": "Rolling Acres Sec I",
"year_built": 1986
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 11 E AZTEC Lane, 3632 North Drive, 3172 Auction Barn Road, this new-construction card is $3/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 163.18,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 166.24,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Nirmaan Builders LLC",
"city": "Belton",
"closing_credit": 10000,
"dom": 120,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.24,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2772,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 166353,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -41457,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 389,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.24,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2825,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 169522,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -38288,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 442,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.24,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2859,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 182877,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -24933,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 476,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.24,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2699,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 183686,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -24124,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 316,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.24,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2883,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 189204,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -18606,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 500,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.24,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2383,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 207810,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.24,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 702,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 366140,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 158330,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1681,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 16200,
"effective_price": 324000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.24,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 122,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 580,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2699,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 141566,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 183686,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 307800,
"monthly_mi": 154,
"monthly_pi": 1843,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1997,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 5900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 288949
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 324000,
"effective_price": 324000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.24,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 122,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 580,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 702,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 324020,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 366140,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 5900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 64800,
"effective_price": 324000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.24,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 122,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 580,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2383,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 165690,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 207810,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 259200,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1681,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1681,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 5900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 243326
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 16200,
"effective_price": 324000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.24,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 122,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 580,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2883,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 147084,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 189204,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 307800,
"monthly_mi": 154,
"monthly_pi": 2027,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2181,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 5900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 289425
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 11340,
"effective_price": 324000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.24,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 122,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 580,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2859,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 140757,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 182877,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 318132,
"monthly_mi": 146,
"monthly_pi": 2011,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2157,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 5900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 297806
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 324000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.24,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 122,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 580,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2825,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 127402,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 169522,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 324000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2123,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2123,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 5900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 304492
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 324000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.24,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 122,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 580,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2772,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 124233,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 166353,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 330966,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2070,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2070,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 5900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 309462
}
}
},
"id": "00f25e00d203",
"incentive_types": [
"closing_costs",
"preferred_lender",
"price_reduction",
"rate_buydown"
],
"negotiability_score": 100,
"original_price": 339900,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 334000,
"price_cut": 5900,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: closing-cost concession language, preferred-lender requirement, price reduction, rate buydown language.",
"sqft": 1949,
"subdivision": "Liberty Park",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "2041 Stillwell Street",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 17.05,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 10.86,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "1230 Fawn Lily Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1230-fawn-lily-drive-temple",
"price": 245000,
"price_per_sqft": 140.08,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-0-500.csv",
"sqft": 1749,
"sqft_delta": 2,
"subdivision": "Lake Pointe Ph Ii-A1",
"year_built": 2014
},
{
"address": "1404 Rolling Brook Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1404-rolling-brook-drive-temple",
"price": 299000,
"price_per_sqft": 170.95,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1749,
"sqft_delta": 2,
"subdivision": "Hills/Westwood Ph Xi",
"year_built": 2021
},
{
"address": "617 N Beal Street",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "617-n-beal-street-belton",
"price": 275000,
"price_per_sqft": 156.96,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1752,
"sqft_delta": 5,
"subdivision": "Alexander Hanna",
"year_built": 1933
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 1230 Fawn Lily Drive, 1404 Rolling Brook Drive, 617 N Beal Street, this new-construction card is $17/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 156.96,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 174.01,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Sandor Homes",
"city": "Nolanville",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 136,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.01,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2601,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 165185,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -38898,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 365,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.01,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2651,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 168159,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -35924,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 415,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.27,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2507,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 176686,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -27397,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 271,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.01,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2682,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 180690,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -23393,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 446,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.01,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2705,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 186626,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -17457,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 469,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.01,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2236,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 204083,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.01,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 659,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 352640,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 148557,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1577,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 3040,
"down_payment": 15048,
"effective_price": 300960,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.27,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 113,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 539,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2507,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 137561,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 176686,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 285912,
"monthly_mi": 143,
"monthly_pi": 1712,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1855,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 15000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 268402
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 304000,
"effective_price": 304000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.01,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 114,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 545,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 659,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 313120,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 352640,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 15000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 60800,
"effective_price": 304000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.01,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 114,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 545,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2236,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 164563,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 204083,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 243200,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1577,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1577,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 15000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 228306
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 15200,
"effective_price": 304000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.01,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 114,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 545,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2705,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 147106,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 186626,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 288800,
"monthly_mi": 144,
"monthly_pi": 1902,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2046,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 15000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 271559
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 10640,
"effective_price": 304000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.01,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 114,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 545,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2682,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 141170,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 180690,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 298494,
"monthly_mi": 137,
"monthly_pi": 1887,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2023,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 15000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 279423
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 304000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.01,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 114,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 545,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2651,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 128639,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 168159,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 304000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1992,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1992,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 15000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 285697
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 304000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.01,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 114,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 545,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2601,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 125665,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 165185,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 310536,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1942,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1942,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 15000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 290359
}
}
},
"id": "983637fe3d20",
"incentive_types": [
"closing_costs",
"preferred_lender",
"price_reduction",
"rate_buydown"
],
"negotiability_score": 100,
"original_price": 319000,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 304000,
"price_cut": 15000,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: closing-cost concession language, preferred-lender requirement, price reduction, rate buydown language.",
"sqft": 1747,
"subdivision": "Warriors Legacy Ph 2-B",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "1978 Rosson Street",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 14.76,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 9.4,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "1230 Fawn Lily Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1230-fawn-lily-drive-temple",
"price": 245000,
"price_per_sqft": 140.08,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-0-500.csv",
"sqft": 1749,
"sqft_delta": 2,
"subdivision": "Lake Pointe Ph Ii-A1",
"year_built": 2014
},
{
"address": "1404 Rolling Brook Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1404-rolling-brook-drive-temple",
"price": 299000,
"price_per_sqft": 170.95,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1749,
"sqft_delta": 2,
"subdivision": "Hills/Westwood Ph Xi",
"year_built": 2021
},
{
"address": "617 N Beal Street",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "617-n-beal-street-belton",
"price": 275000,
"price_per_sqft": 156.96,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1752,
"sqft_delta": 5,
"subdivision": "Alexander Hanna",
"year_built": 1933
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 1230 Fawn Lily Drive, 1404 Rolling Brook Drive, 617 N Beal Street, this new-construction card is $15/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 156.96,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 171.72,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Sandor Homes",
"city": "Nolanville",
"closing_credit": 15000,
"dom": 226,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 171.72,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2567,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 154012,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -38386,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 360,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 171.72,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2616,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 156947,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -35451,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 409,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 171.72,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2647,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 169312,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -23086,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 440,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 171.72,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2499,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 170061,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -22337,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 292,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 171.72,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2670,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 175171,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -17227,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 463,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 171.72,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2207,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 192398,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 171.72,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 650,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 339000,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 146602,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1557,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 15000,
"effective_price": 300000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 171.72,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 112,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 537,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2499,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 131061,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 170061,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 285000,
"monthly_mi": 142,
"monthly_pi": 1707,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1849,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 4000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 267546
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 300000,
"effective_price": 300000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 171.72,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 112,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 537,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 650,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 300000,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 339000,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 4000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 60000,
"effective_price": 300000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 171.72,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 112,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 537,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2207,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 153398,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 192398,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 240000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1557,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1557,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 4000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 225302
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 15000,
"effective_price": 300000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 171.72,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 112,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 537,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2670,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 136171,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 175171,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 285000,
"monthly_mi": 142,
"monthly_pi": 1877,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2020,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 4000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 267986
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 10500,
"effective_price": 300000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 171.72,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 112,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 537,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2647,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 130312,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 169312,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 294566,
"monthly_mi": 135,
"monthly_pi": 1862,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1997,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 4000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 275746
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 300000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 171.72,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 112,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 537,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2616,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 117947,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 156947,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 300000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1966,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1966,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 4000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 281937
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 300000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 171.72,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 112,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 537,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2567,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 115012,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 154012,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 306450,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1917,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1917,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 4000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 286539
}
}
},
"id": "498a2e08f5eb",
"incentive_types": [
"closing_costs",
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"preferred_lender",
"price_reduction",
"rate_buydown"
],
"negotiability_score": 100,
"original_price": 319000,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 315000,
"price_cut": 4000,
"rate": "4.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: closing-cost concession language, limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, preferred-lender requirement, price reduction, rate buydown language.",
"sqft": 1747,
"subdivision": "Warriors Legacy Ph 2-B",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "2017 Stillwell Street",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 15.02,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 10.18,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "3632 North Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "3632-north-drive-belton",
"price": 459900,
"price_per_sqft": 237.43,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1937,
"sqft_delta": -1,
"subdivision": "Pine Terrace Sub",
"year_built": 1996
},
{
"address": "20 W Nugent Avenue",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "20-w-nugent-avenue-temple",
"price": 285900,
"price_per_sqft": 147.22,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1942,
"sqft_delta": 4,
"subdivision": "",
"year_built": 1942
},
{
"address": "2611 Settlers Oak Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "2611-settlers-oak-drive-belton",
"price": 285000,
"price_per_sqft": 147.52,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1932,
"sqft_delta": -6,
"subdivision": "Hubbard Branch Add Ph",
"year_built": 2021
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 3632 North Drive, 20 W Nugent Avenue, 2611 Settlers Oak Drive, this new-construction card is $15/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 147.52,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 162.54,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Sandor Homes",
"city": "Nolanville",
"closing_credit": 15000,
"dom": 264,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 162.54,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2695,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 161712,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -40306,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 378,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 162.54,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2747,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 164794,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -37224,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 430,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 162.54,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2779,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 177778,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -24240,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 462,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 162.54,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2624,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 178565,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -23453,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 307,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 162.54,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2803,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 183929,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -18089,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 486,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 162.54,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2317,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 202018,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 162.54,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 682,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 355950,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 153932,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1635,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 15750,
"effective_price": 315000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 162.54,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 118,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 564,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2624,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 137615,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 178565,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 299250,
"monthly_mi": 150,
"monthly_pi": 1792,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1942,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 5000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 280923
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 315000,
"effective_price": 315000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 162.54,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 118,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 564,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 682,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 315000,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 355950,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 5000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 63000,
"effective_price": 315000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 162.54,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 118,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 564,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2317,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 161068,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 202018,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 252000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1634,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1634,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 5000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 236567
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 15750,
"effective_price": 315000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 162.54,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 118,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 564,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2803,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 142979,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 183929,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 299250,
"monthly_mi": 150,
"monthly_pi": 1971,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2120,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 5000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 281386
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 11025,
"effective_price": 315000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 162.54,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 118,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 564,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2779,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 136828,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 177778,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 309295,
"monthly_mi": 142,
"monthly_pi": 1955,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2097,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 5000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 289534
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 315000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 162.54,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 118,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 564,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2747,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 123844,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 164794,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 315000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2064,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2064,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 5000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 296034
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 315000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 162.54,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 118,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 564,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2695,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 120762,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 161712,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 321772,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2013,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2013,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 5000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 300866
}
}
},
"id": "516a1535687e",
"incentive_types": [
"closing_costs",
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"preferred_lender",
"price_reduction",
"rate_buydown"
],
"negotiability_score": 100,
"original_price": 335000,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 330000,
"price_cut": 5000,
"rate": "4.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: closing-cost concession language, limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, preferred-lender requirement, price reduction, rate buydown language.",
"sqft": 1938,
"subdivision": "Warriors Legacy PH 2-B",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "1974 Rosson Street",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 7.83,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 5.0,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "400 Downing Street",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "400-downing-street-belton",
"price": 300000,
"price_per_sqft": 156.66,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-14-2026-mls-templebelton.csv",
"sqft": 1915,
"sqft_delta": 0,
"subdivision": "Norman Place Sub Unit",
"year_built": 1963
},
{
"address": "516 Weeping Willow Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "516-weeping-willow-drive-temple",
"price": 266000,
"price_per_sqft": 138.83,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1916,
"sqft_delta": 1,
"subdivision": "Windmill Farms Ph One",
"year_built": 2009
},
{
"address": "2705 Crystal Ann Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "2705-crystal-ann-drive-temple",
"price": 330000,
"price_per_sqft": 172.14,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1917,
"sqft_delta": 2,
"subdivision": "The Plains At Riverside Ph",
"year_built": 2018
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 400 Downing Street, 516 Weeping Willow Drive, 2705 Crystal Ann Drive, this new-construction card is $8/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 156.66,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 164.49,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Sandor Homes",
"city": "Nolanville",
"closing_credit": 15000,
"dom": 247,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.49,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2695,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 161712,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -40306,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 378,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.49,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2747,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 164794,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -37224,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 430,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.49,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2779,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 177778,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -24240,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 462,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.49,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2624,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 178565,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -23453,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 307,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.49,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2803,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 183929,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -18089,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 486,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.49,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2317,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 202018,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.49,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 682,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 355950,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 153932,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1635,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 15750,
"effective_price": 315000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.49,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 118,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 564,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2624,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 137615,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 178565,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 299250,
"monthly_mi": 150,
"monthly_pi": 1792,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1942,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 9000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 280923
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 315000,
"effective_price": 315000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.49,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 118,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 564,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 682,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 315000,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 355950,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 9000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 63000,
"effective_price": 315000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.49,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 118,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 564,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2317,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 161068,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 202018,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 252000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1634,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1634,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 9000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 236567
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 15750,
"effective_price": 315000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.49,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 118,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 564,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2803,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 142979,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 183929,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 299250,
"monthly_mi": 150,
"monthly_pi": 1971,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2120,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 9000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 281386
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 11025,
"effective_price": 315000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.49,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 118,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 564,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2779,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 136828,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 177778,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 309295,
"monthly_mi": 142,
"monthly_pi": 1955,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2097,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 9000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 289534
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 315000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.49,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 118,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 564,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2747,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 123844,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 164794,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 315000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2064,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2064,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 9000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 296034
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 315000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.49,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 118,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 564,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2695,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 120762,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 161712,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 321772,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2013,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2013,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 9000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 300866
}
}
},
"id": "0bb16ce107ba",
"incentive_types": [
"closing_costs",
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"preferred_lender",
"price_reduction",
"rate_buydown"
],
"negotiability_score": 100,
"original_price": 339000,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 330000,
"price_cut": 9000,
"rate": "4.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: closing-cost concession language, limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, preferred-lender requirement, price reduction, rate buydown language.",
"sqft": 1915,
"subdivision": "Warriors Legacy Ph 2-B",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "4027 Prairie Drive",
"apr": "6.23%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 63.58,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 43.54,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "4114 Birch Boulevard",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "4114-birch-boulevard-temple",
"price": 310000,
"price_per_sqft": 146.02,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2123,
"sqft_delta": 0,
"subdivision": "Ramblewood 1st Unit",
"year_built": 1970
},
{
"address": "2711 Forest Trail",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "2711-forest-trail-temple",
"price": 256000,
"price_per_sqft": 120.75,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2120,
"sqft_delta": -3,
"subdivision": "Forest Hills 1st Ext",
"year_built": 1966
},
{
"address": "3314 Long Fellow Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "3314-long-fellow-drive-belton",
"price": 425000,
"price_per_sqft": 200.47,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2120,
"sqft_delta": -3,
"subdivision": "DAWSON RIDGE AMENDING PLAT",
"year_built": 2020
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 4114 Birch Boulevard, 2711 Forest Trail, 3314 Long Fellow Drive, this new-construction card is $64/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 146.02,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 209.6,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Nolanville",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 181,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 209.6,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3807,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 241795,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -56939,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 534,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 209.6,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3880,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 246149,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -52585,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 607,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 207.51,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3670,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 258629,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -40105,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 397,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 209.6,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3926,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 264490,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -34244,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 653,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 209.6,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3960,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 273180,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -25554,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 687,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 209.6,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3273,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 298734,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 209.6,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 964,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 516188,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 217454,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -2309,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 4450,
"down_payment": 22027,
"effective_price": 440540,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 207.51,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 165,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 789,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3670,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 201359,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 258629,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 418513,
"monthly_mi": 209,
"monthly_pi": 2507,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2716,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 29932,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 392882
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 444990,
"effective_price": 444990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 209.6,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 167,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 797,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 964,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 458340,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 516188,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 29932,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 88998,
"effective_price": 444990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 209.6,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 167,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 797,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3273,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 240885,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 298734,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 355992,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2309,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2309,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 29932,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 334190
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 22250,
"effective_price": 444990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 209.6,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 167,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 797,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3960,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 215332,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 273180,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 422740,
"monthly_mi": 211,
"monthly_pi": 2784,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2996,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 29932,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 397504
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 15575,
"effective_price": 444990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 209.6,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 167,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 797,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3926,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 206642,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 264490,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 436930,
"monthly_mi": 200,
"monthly_pi": 2762,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2962,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 29932,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 409015
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 444990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 209.6,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 167,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 797,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3880,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 188300,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 246149,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 444990,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2916,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2916,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 29932,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 418198
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 444990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 209.6,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 167,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 797,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3807,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 183947,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 241795,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 454557,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2843,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2843,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 29932,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 425023
}
}
},
"id": "4cb5c7f43c02",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"preferred_lender",
"price_reduction",
"rate_buydown"
],
"negotiability_score": 100,
"original_price": 474922,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 444990,
"price_cut": 29932,
"rate": "2.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, preferred-lender requirement, price reduction, rate buydown language.",
"sqft": 2123,
"subdivision": "Bella Charca Phase 12",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "5031 Fence Line Trail",
"apr": "6.23%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 59.29,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 41.03,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "2612 Laguna Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "2612-laguna-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 300000,
"price_per_sqft": 134.41,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 2232,
"sqft_delta": 2,
"subdivision": "Skipcha Mt. Est",
"year_built": 2009
},
{
"address": "821 Kendra Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "821-kendra-drive-temple",
"price": 322000,
"price_per_sqft": 144.52,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2228,
"sqft_delta": -2,
"subdivision": "Canyon Ridge Ph III",
"year_built": 2017
},
{
"address": "2631 Cedar Glen Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "2631-cedar-glen-drive-belton",
"price": 380000,
"price_per_sqft": 170.56,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2228,
"sqft_delta": -2,
"subdivision": "Hubbard Branch Add Ph",
"year_built": 2021
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 2612 Laguna Drive, 821 Kendra Drive, 2631 Cedar Glen Drive, this new-construction card is $59/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 144.52,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 203.81,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Nolanville",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 138,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 203.81,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3889,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 246963,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -58155,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 546,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 203.81,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3963,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 251409,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -53709,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 620,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 201.77,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3749,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 264157,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -40961,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 406,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 203.81,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4010,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 270143,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -34975,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 667,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 203.81,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4044,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 279018,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -26100,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 701,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 203.81,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3343,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 305118,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 203.81,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 985,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 527220,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 222102,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -2358,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 4545,
"down_payment": 22498,
"effective_price": 449955,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 201.77,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 169,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 806,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3749,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 205663,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 264157,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 427457,
"monthly_mi": 214,
"monthly_pi": 2560,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2774,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 50057,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 401279
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 454500,
"effective_price": 454500,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 203.81,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 170,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 814,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 985,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 468135,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 527220,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 50057,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 90900,
"effective_price": 454500,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 203.81,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 170,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 814,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3343,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 246033,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 305118,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 363600,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2358,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2358,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 50057,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 341332
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 22725,
"effective_price": 454500,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 203.81,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 170,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 814,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4044,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 219933,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 279018,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 431775,
"monthly_mi": 216,
"monthly_pi": 2844,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3060,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 50057,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 405999
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 15908,
"effective_price": 454500,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 203.81,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 170,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 814,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4010,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 211058,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 270143,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 446268,
"monthly_mi": 205,
"monthly_pi": 2821,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3025,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 50057,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 417756
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 454500,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 203.81,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 170,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 814,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3963,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 192324,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 251409,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 454500,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2978,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2978,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 50057,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 427135
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 454500,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 203.81,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 170,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 814,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3889,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 187878,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 246963,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 464272,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2904,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2904,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 50057,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 434106
}
}
},
"id": "3a32bf26fc41",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"preferred_lender",
"price_reduction",
"rate_buydown"
],
"negotiability_score": 100,
"original_price": 504557,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 454500,
"price_cut": 50057,
"rate": "2.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, preferred-lender requirement, price reduction, rate buydown language.",
"sqft": 2230,
"subdivision": "Bella Charca Phase 12",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "5022 Pheasant Drive",
"apr": "6.23%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 68.04,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 41.0,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "910 Ridgeoak Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "910-ridgeoak-drive-belton",
"price": 549000,
"price_per_sqft": 216.23,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-0-500.csv",
"sqft": 2539,
"sqft_delta": -1,
"subdivision": "The Ranch At Woodland Trails P",
"year_built": 2015
},
{
"address": "5338 Fenton Lane",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "5338-fenton-lane-belton",
"price": 339000,
"price_per_sqft": 132.99,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2549,
"sqft_delta": 9,
"subdivision": "Three Creeks Ph II",
"year_built": 2017
},
{
"address": "3917 Walden Creek Crossing",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "3917-walden-creek-crossing-harker-heights",
"price": 420000,
"price_per_sqft": 165.94,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 2531,
"sqft_delta": -9,
"subdivision": "The Colony Ph Two",
"year_built": 2007
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 910 Ridgeoak Drive, 5338 Fenton Lane, 3917 Walden Creek Crossing, this new-construction card is $68/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 165.94,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 233.98,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Nolanville",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 131,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 233.98,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5085,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 322934,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -76045,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 714,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 233.98,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5182,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 328748,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -70231,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 811,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 231.64,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4902,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 345417,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -53562,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 531,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 233.98,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5244,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 353245,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -45734,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 873,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 233.98,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5288,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 364851,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -34128,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 917,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 233.98,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4371,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 398979,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 233.98,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1288,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 689404,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 290425,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -3083,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 5943,
"down_payment": 29419,
"effective_price": 588371,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 231.64,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 221,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1054,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4902,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 268929,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 345417,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 558952,
"monthly_mi": 279,
"monthly_pi": 3348,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3627,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 1500,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 524721
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 594314,
"effective_price": 594314,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 233.98,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 223,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1065,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1288,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 612143,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 689404,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 1500,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 118863,
"effective_price": 594314,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 233.98,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 223,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1065,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4371,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 321718,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 398979,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 475451,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3084,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3084,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 1500,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 446333
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 29716,
"effective_price": 594314,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 233.98,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 223,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1065,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5288,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 287590,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 364851,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 564598,
"monthly_mi": 282,
"monthly_pi": 3718,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4001,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 1500,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 530893
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 20801,
"effective_price": 594314,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 233.98,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 223,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1065,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5244,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 275984,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 353245,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 583549,
"monthly_mi": 267,
"monthly_pi": 3688,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3956,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 1500,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 546266
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 594314,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 233.98,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 223,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1065,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5182,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 251487,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 328748,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 594314,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3894,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3894,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 1500,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 558531
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 594314,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 233.98,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 223,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1065,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5085,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 245673,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 322934,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 607092,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3797,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3797,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 1500,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 567646
}
}
},
"id": "4d56a2954250",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"preferred_lender",
"price_reduction"
],
"negotiability_score": 100,
"original_price": 595814,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 594314,
"price_cut": 1500,
"rate": "4.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, preferred-lender requirement, price reduction.",
"sqft": 2540,
"subdivision": "Bella Charca",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "1644 Hunt Dr.",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": -27.98,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": -9.84,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "1250 E Creekview Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "1250-e-creekview-drive-salado",
"price": 910000,
"price_per_sqft": 295.84,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 3076,
"sqft_delta": -84,
"subdivision": "Hidden Spgs Sec One",
"year_built": 2021
},
{
"address": "2422 Smith Bluff Road",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "2422-smith-bluff-road-salado",
"price": 575000,
"price_per_sqft": 176.6,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 3256,
"sqft_delta": 96,
"subdivision": "Mill Creek Sec 14",
"year_built": 1986
},
{
"address": "6409 Three Forks Road",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "6409-three-forks-road-belton",
"price": 899000,
"price_per_sqft": 284.31,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 3162,
"sqft_delta": 2,
"subdivision": "A0012 Bc A Menchaca",
"year_built": 1978
}
],
"favorable": true,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 1250 E Creekview Drive, 2422 Smith Bluff Road, 6409 Three Forks Road, this new-construction card is $28/sqft cheaper on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 284.31,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 256.33,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": null,
"city": "Salado",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 214,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 256.33,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6931,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 440132,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -103643,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 973,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 256.33,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 7063,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 448056,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -95719,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 1105,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 253.77,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6681,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 470774,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -73001,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 723,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 256.33,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 7147,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 481443,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -62332,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 1189,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 256.33,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 7208,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 497261,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -46514,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 1250,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 256.33,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5958,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 543775,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 256.33,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1755,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 939600,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 395825,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -4203,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 8100,
"down_payment": 40095,
"effective_price": 801900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 253.77,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 301,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1437,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6681,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 366527,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 470774,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 761805,
"monthly_mi": 381,
"monthly_pi": 4563,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4943,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 15000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 715150
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 810000,
"effective_price": 810000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 256.33,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 304,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1451,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1755,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 834300,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 939600,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 15000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 162000,
"effective_price": 810000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 256.33,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 304,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1451,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5958,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 438475,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 543775,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 648000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 4203,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4203,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 15000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 608315
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 40500,
"effective_price": 810000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 256.33,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 304,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1451,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 7208,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 391961,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 497261,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 769500,
"monthly_mi": 385,
"monthly_pi": 5068,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 5453,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 15000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 723563
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 28350,
"effective_price": 810000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 256.33,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 304,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1451,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 7147,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 376143,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 481443,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 795329,
"monthly_mi": 365,
"monthly_pi": 5027,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 5392,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 15000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 744515
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 810000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 256.33,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 304,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1451,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 7063,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 342756,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 448056,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 810000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 5308,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 5308,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 15000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 761231
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 810000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 256.33,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 304,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1451,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6931,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 334832,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 440132,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 827415,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 5176,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 5176,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 15000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 773654
}
}
},
"id": "eb7f0470426a",
"incentive_types": [
"fixed_rate",
"lender_credit",
"preferred_lender",
"price_reduction",
"rate_buydown"
],
"negotiability_score": 100,
"original_price": 825000,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 810000,
"price_cut": 15000,
"rate": "3.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: fixed-rate incentive, lender-credit language, preferred-lender requirement, price reduction, rate buydown language.",
"sqft": 3160,
"subdivision": "Mill Creek Meadows",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "1212 Peppermint Drive",
"apr": "6.23%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 6.8,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 4.0,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "2001 S 9th Street",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "2001-s-9th-street-temple",
"price": 146000,
"price_per_sqft": 99.39,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-14-2026-mls-templebelton.csv",
"sqft": 1469,
"sqft_delta": 0,
"subdivision": "Hollywood Add",
"year_built": 1952
},
{
"address": "828 Starlight Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "828-starlight-drive-temple",
"price": 249828,
"price_per_sqft": 170.18,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-14-2026-mls-templebelton.csv",
"sqft": 1468,
"sqft_delta": -1,
"subdivision": "Windmill Farms Ph II",
"year_built": 2011
},
{
"address": "5918 Blackstone Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "5918-blackstone-drive-temple",
"price": 279000,
"price_per_sqft": 189.8,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1470,
"sqft_delta": 1,
"subdivision": "Wyndham Hill Additio",
"year_built": 2018
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 2001 S 9th Street, 828 Starlight Drive, 5918 Blackstone Drive, this new-construction card is $7/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 170.18,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 176.98,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Temple",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 123,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.98,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2225,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 141271,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -33267,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 313,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.98,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2267,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 143815,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -30723,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 355,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 175.21,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2144,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 151107,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -23431,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 232,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.98,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2294,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 154531,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -20007,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 382,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.98,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2313,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 159608,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -14930,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 401,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.98,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1912,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 174538,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.98,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 563,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 301588,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 127050,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1349,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 2600,
"down_payment": 12870,
"effective_price": 257390,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 175.21,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 97,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 461,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2144,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 117646,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 151107,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 244520,
"monthly_mi": 122,
"monthly_pi": 1464,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1587,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 3000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 229545
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 259990,
"effective_price": 259990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.98,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 97,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 466,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 563,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 267790,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 301588,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 3000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 51998,
"effective_price": 259990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.98,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 97,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 466,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1912,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 140740,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 174538,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 207992,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1349,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1349,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 3000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 195254
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 13000,
"effective_price": 259990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.98,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 97,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 466,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2313,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 125810,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 159608,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 246990,
"monthly_mi": 123,
"monthly_pi": 1627,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1750,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 3000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 232246
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 9100,
"effective_price": 259990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.98,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 97,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 466,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2294,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 120733,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 154531,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 255281,
"monthly_mi": 117,
"monthly_pi": 1614,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1731,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 3000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 238971
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 259990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.98,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 97,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 466,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2267,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 110016,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 143815,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 259990,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1704,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1704,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 3000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 244336
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 259990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.98,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 97,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 466,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2225,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 107473,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 141271,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 265580,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1661,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1661,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 3000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 248324
}
}
},
"id": "70f4c7e3bf7a",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"preferred_lender",
"price_reduction",
"rate_buydown"
],
"negotiability_score": 100,
"original_price": 262990,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 259990,
"price_cut": 3000,
"rate": "2.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, preferred-lender requirement, price reduction, rate buydown language.",
"sqft": 1469,
"subdivision": "Oak Ridge",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "1105 Peppermint Drive",
"apr": "6.23%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 6.8,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 4.0,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "2001 S 9th Street",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "2001-s-9th-street-temple",
"price": 146000,
"price_per_sqft": 99.39,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-14-2026-mls-templebelton.csv",
"sqft": 1469,
"sqft_delta": 0,
"subdivision": "Hollywood Add",
"year_built": 1952
},
{
"address": "828 Starlight Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "828-starlight-drive-temple",
"price": 249828,
"price_per_sqft": 170.18,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-14-2026-mls-templebelton.csv",
"sqft": 1468,
"sqft_delta": -1,
"subdivision": "Windmill Farms Ph II",
"year_built": 2011
},
{
"address": "5918 Blackstone Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "5918-blackstone-drive-temple",
"price": 279000,
"price_per_sqft": 189.8,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1470,
"sqft_delta": 1,
"subdivision": "Wyndham Hill Additio",
"year_built": 2018
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 2001 S 9th Street, 828 Starlight Drive, 5918 Blackstone Drive, this new-construction card is $7/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 170.18,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 176.98,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Temple",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 162,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.98,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2225,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 141271,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -33267,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 313,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.98,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2267,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 143815,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -30723,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 355,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 175.21,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2144,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 151107,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -23431,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 232,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.98,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2294,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 154531,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -20007,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 382,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.98,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2313,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 159608,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -14930,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 401,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.98,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1912,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 174538,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.98,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 563,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 301588,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 127050,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1349,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 2600,
"down_payment": 12870,
"effective_price": 257390,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 175.21,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 97,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 461,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2144,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 117646,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 151107,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 244520,
"monthly_mi": 122,
"monthly_pi": 1464,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1587,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 7362,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 229545
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 259990,
"effective_price": 259990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.98,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 97,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 466,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 563,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 267790,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 301588,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 7362,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 51998,
"effective_price": 259990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.98,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 97,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 466,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1912,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 140740,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 174538,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 207992,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1349,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1349,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 7362,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 195254
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 13000,
"effective_price": 259990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.98,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 97,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 466,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2313,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 125810,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 159608,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 246990,
"monthly_mi": 123,
"monthly_pi": 1627,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1750,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 7362,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 232246
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 9100,
"effective_price": 259990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.98,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 97,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 466,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2294,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 120733,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 154531,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 255281,
"monthly_mi": 117,
"monthly_pi": 1614,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1731,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 7362,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 238971
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 259990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.98,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 97,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 466,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2267,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 110016,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 143815,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 259990,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1704,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1704,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 7362,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 244336
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 259990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.98,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 97,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 466,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2225,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 107473,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 141271,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 265580,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1661,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1661,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 7362,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 248324
}
}
},
"id": "6e16df3d4f3c",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"preferred_lender",
"price_reduction",
"rate_buydown"
],
"negotiability_score": 100,
"original_price": 267352,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 259990,
"price_cut": 7362,
"rate": "2.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, preferred-lender requirement, price reduction, rate buydown language.",
"sqft": 1469,
"subdivision": "Oak Ridge",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "1518 Flatland Trail",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 29.13,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 19.05,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "111 N 5th Street",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "111-n-5th-street-temple",
"price": 179900,
"price_per_sqft": 119.53,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1505,
"sqft_delta": 0,
"subdivision": "Temple Original",
"year_built": 1927
},
{
"address": "4708 Oxford Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "4708-oxford-drive-temple",
"price": 230000,
"price_per_sqft": 152.93,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1504,
"sqft_delta": -1,
"subdivision": "Stratford Place Ph V",
"year_built": 1994
},
{
"address": "5209 Foxhill Road",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "5209-foxhill-road-temple",
"price": 268999,
"price_per_sqft": 178.62,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1506,
"sqft_delta": 1,
"subdivision": "West Ridge Ph Ix",
"year_built": 2008
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 111 N 5th Street, 4708 Oxford Drive, 5209 Foxhill Road, this new-construction card is $29/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 152.93,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 182.06,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Jerry Wright Homes",
"city": "Temple",
"closing_credit": 10000,
"dom": 341,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 182.06,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2344,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 140664,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -35060,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 329,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 182.06,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2389,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 143345,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -32379,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 374,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 182.06,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2417,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 154638,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -21086,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 402,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 182.06,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2283,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 155323,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -20401,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 268,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 182.06,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2438,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 159989,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -15735,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 423,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 182.06,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2015,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 175724,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 182.06,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 594,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 309620,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 133896,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1421,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 13700,
"effective_price": 274000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 182.06,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 103,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 491,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2283,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 119703,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 155323,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 260300,
"monthly_mi": 130,
"monthly_pi": 1559,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1689,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 13900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 244358
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 274000,
"effective_price": 274000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 182.06,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 103,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 491,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 594,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 274000,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 309620,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 13900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 54800,
"effective_price": 274000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 182.06,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 103,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 491,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2015,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 140104,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 175724,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 219200,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1422,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1422,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 13900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 205776
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 13700,
"effective_price": 274000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 182.06,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 103,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 491,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2438,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 124369,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 159989,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 260300,
"monthly_mi": 130,
"monthly_pi": 1714,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1844,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 13900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 244761
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 9590,
"effective_price": 274000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 182.06,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 103,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 491,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2417,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 119018,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 154638,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 269037,
"monthly_mi": 123,
"monthly_pi": 1700,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1824,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 13900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 251848
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 274000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 182.06,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 103,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 491,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2389,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 107725,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 143345,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 274000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1795,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1795,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 13900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 257503
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 274000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 182.06,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 103,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 491,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2344,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 105044,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 140664,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 279891,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1751,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1751,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 13900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 261705
}
}
},
"id": "8a6ba443fff7",
"incentive_types": [
"builder_concession",
"closing_costs",
"preferred_lender",
"price_reduction",
"rate_buydown",
"title_policy_survey"
],
"negotiability_score": 100,
"original_price": 297900,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 284000,
"price_cut": 13900,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: builder concession language, closing-cost concession language, preferred-lender requirement, price reduction, rate buydown language, title policy or survey language.",
"sqft": 1505,
"subdivision": "Prairie Ridge",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "1807 Bear Grass Ridge Road",
"apr": "6.23%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 19.15,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 14.23,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "2505 Canyon Creek Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "2505-canyon-creek-drive-temple",
"price": 249900,
"price_per_sqft": 134.57,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1857,
"sqft_delta": 3,
"subdivision": "Cliffs Of Canyon Creek Ph I",
"year_built": 1983
},
{
"address": "3811 River Oaks Circle",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "3811-river-oaks-circle-temple",
"price": 237900,
"price_per_sqft": 128.59,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1850,
"sqft_delta": -4,
"subdivision": "The Oaks",
"year_built": 1981
},
{
"address": "5921 Stanford Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "5921-stanford-drive-temple",
"price": 289000,
"price_per_sqft": 156.47,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1847,
"sqft_delta": -7,
"subdivision": "Alta Vista I",
"year_built": 2013
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 2505 Canyon Creek Drive, 3811 River Oaks Circle, 5921 Stanford Drive, this new-construction card is $19/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 134.57,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 153.72,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Temple",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 216,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 153.72,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2438,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 154856,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -36466,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 342,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 153.72,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2485,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 157644,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -33678,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 389,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 152.18,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2351,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 165637,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -25685,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 255,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 153.72,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2514,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 169391,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -21931,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 418,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 153.72,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2536,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 174956,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -16366,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 440,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 153.72,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2096,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 191322,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 153.72,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 617,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 330588,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 139266,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1479,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 2850,
"down_payment": 14107,
"effective_price": 282140,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 152.18,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 106,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 506,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2351,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 128959,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 165637,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 268033,
"monthly_mi": 134,
"monthly_pi": 1605,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1739,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 29003,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 251618
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 284990,
"effective_price": 284990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 153.72,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 107,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 511,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 617,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 293540,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 330588,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 29003,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 56998,
"effective_price": 284990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 153.72,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 107,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 511,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2096,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 154273,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 191322,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 227992,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1479,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1479,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 29003,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 214029
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 14250,
"effective_price": 284990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 153.72,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 107,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 511,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2536,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 137907,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 174956,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 270740,
"monthly_mi": 135,
"monthly_pi": 1783,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1918,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 29003,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 254578
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 9975,
"effective_price": 284990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 153.72,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 107,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 511,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2514,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 132342,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 169391,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 279828,
"monthly_mi": 128,
"monthly_pi": 1769,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1897,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 29003,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 261950
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 284990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 153.72,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 107,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 511,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2485,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 120595,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 157644,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 284990,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1867,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1867,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 29003,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 267831
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 284990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 153.72,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 107,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 511,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2438,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 117807,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 154856,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 291117,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1821,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1821,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 29003,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 272202
}
}
},
"id": "807ec8cf8024",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"preferred_lender",
"price_reduction"
],
"negotiability_score": 100,
"original_price": 313993,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 284990,
"price_cut": 29003,
"rate": "4.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, preferred-lender requirement, price reduction.",
"sqft": 1854,
"subdivision": "Ridge at Knob Creek",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "8905 Ponderosa Pine Road",
"apr": "6.23%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 3.39,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 2.02,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "1223 Kiskadee Branch Branch",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "1223-kiskadee-branch-branch-temple",
"price": 299000,
"price_per_sqft": 179.58,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1665,
"sqft_delta": -1,
"subdivision": "Lake Pointe",
"year_built": 2018
},
{
"address": "10409 Orion Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "10409-orion-drive-temple",
"price": 263000,
"price_per_sqft": 158.05,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-0-500.csv",
"sqft": 1664,
"sqft_delta": -2,
"subdivision": "Windmill Farms Ph III",
"year_built": 2011
},
{
"address": "7909 McCulloch Road",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "7909-mcculloch-road-temple",
"price": 279000,
"price_per_sqft": 167.67,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-14-2026-mls-templebelton.csv",
"sqft": 1664,
"sqft_delta": -2,
"subdivision": "Pea Rdg Ph 1",
"year_built": 2020
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 1223 Kiskadee Branch Branch, 10409 Orion Drive, 7909 McCulloch Road, this new-construction card is $3/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 167.67,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 171.06,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Temple",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 161,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 171.06,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2438,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 154856,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -36466,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 342,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 171.06,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2485,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 157644,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -33678,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 389,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 169.35,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2351,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 165637,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -25685,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 255,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 171.06,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2514,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 169391,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -21931,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 418,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 171.06,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2536,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 174956,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -16366,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 440,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 171.06,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2096,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 191322,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 171.06,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 617,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 330588,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 139266,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1479,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 2850,
"down_payment": 14107,
"effective_price": 282140,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 169.35,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 106,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 506,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2351,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 128959,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 165637,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 268033,
"monthly_mi": 134,
"monthly_pi": 1605,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1739,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 18680,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 251618
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 284990,
"effective_price": 284990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 171.06,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 107,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 511,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 617,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 293540,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 330588,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 18680,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 56998,
"effective_price": 284990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 171.06,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 107,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 511,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2096,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 154273,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 191322,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 227992,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1479,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1479,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 18680,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 214029
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 14250,
"effective_price": 284990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 171.06,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 107,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 511,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2536,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 137907,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 174956,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 270740,
"monthly_mi": 135,
"monthly_pi": 1783,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1918,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 18680,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 254578
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 9975,
"effective_price": 284990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 171.06,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 107,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 511,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2514,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 132342,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 169391,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 279828,
"monthly_mi": 128,
"monthly_pi": 1769,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1897,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 18680,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 261950
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 284990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 171.06,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 107,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 511,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2485,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 120595,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 157644,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 284990,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1867,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1867,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 18680,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 267831
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 284990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 171.06,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 107,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 511,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2438,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 117807,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 154856,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 291117,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1821,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1821,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 18680,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 272202
}
}
},
"id": "a15f0f426c6b",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"preferred_lender",
"price_reduction",
"rate_buydown"
],
"negotiability_score": 100,
"original_price": 303670,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 284990,
"price_cut": 18680,
"rate": "4.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, preferred-lender requirement, price reduction, rate buydown language.",
"sqft": 1666,
"subdivision": "Mesa Ridge",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "2302 Healy Drive",
"apr": "6.23%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 16.87,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 11.7,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "7204 Rickey Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "7204-rickey-drive-temple",
"price": 260000,
"price_per_sqft": 139.34,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1866,
"sqft_delta": 3,
"subdivision": "Waco Road West Sub",
"year_built": 2005
},
{
"address": "313 Ruggles Loop",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "313-ruggles-loop-temple",
"price": 269000,
"price_per_sqft": 144.16,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1866,
"sqft_delta": 3,
"subdivision": "Bellaire North Sec 6",
"year_built": 1976
},
{
"address": "815 Cross Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "815-cross-drive-temple",
"price": 325000,
"price_per_sqft": 174.17,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1866,
"sqft_delta": 3,
"subdivision": "Wyndham Hill Additio",
"year_built": 2018
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 7204 Rickey Drive, 313 Ruggles Loop, 815 Cross Drive, this new-construction card is $17/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 144.16,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 161.03,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Temple",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 203,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 161.03,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2567,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 163006,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -38385,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 360,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 161.03,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2616,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 165941,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -35450,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 409,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 159.41,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2474,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 174355,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -27036,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 267,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 161.03,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2647,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 178306,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -23085,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 440,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 161.03,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2669,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 184164,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -17227,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 462,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 161.03,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2207,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 201391,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 161.03,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 650,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 347988,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 146597,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1557,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 3000,
"down_payment": 14850,
"effective_price": 296990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 159.41,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 111,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 532,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2474,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 135746,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 174355,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 282140,
"monthly_mi": 141,
"monthly_pi": 1690,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1831,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 13347,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 264861
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 299990,
"effective_price": 299990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 161.03,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 112,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 537,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 650,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 308990,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 347988,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 13347,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 59998,
"effective_price": 299990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 161.03,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 112,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 537,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2207,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 162393,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 201391,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 239992,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1557,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1557,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 13347,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 225294
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 15000,
"effective_price": 299990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 161.03,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 112,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 537,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2669,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 145166,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 184164,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 284990,
"monthly_mi": 142,
"monthly_pi": 1877,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2019,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 13347,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 267977
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 10500,
"effective_price": 299990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 161.03,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 112,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 537,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2647,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 139307,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 178306,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 294556,
"monthly_mi": 135,
"monthly_pi": 1862,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1997,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 13347,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 275737
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 299990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 161.03,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 112,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 537,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2616,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 126942,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 165941,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 299990,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1966,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1966,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 13347,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 281928
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 299990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 161.03,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 112,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 537,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2567,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 124008,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 163006,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 306440,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1917,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1917,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 13347,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 286529
}
}
},
"id": "ec4329e8daab",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"preferred_lender",
"price_reduction",
"rate_buydown"
],
"negotiability_score": 100,
"original_price": 313337,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 299990,
"price_cut": 13347,
"rate": "2.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, preferred-lender requirement, price reduction, rate buydown language.",
"sqft": 1863,
"subdivision": "Mesa Ridge",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "1102 College Avenue",
"apr": "6.23%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": -29.28,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": -16.04,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "1503 E Calhoun Avenue",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1503-e-calhoun-avenue-temple",
"price": 184900,
"price_per_sqft": 157.23,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1176,
"sqft_delta": 2,
"subdivision": "Highland Terrace Annex Ph I",
"year_built": 1999
},
{
"address": "1607 Ridgeway Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1607-ridgeway-drive-temple",
"price": 214000,
"price_per_sqft": 182.59,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1172,
"sqft_delta": -2,
"subdivision": "Oak Hills Sec Two Ph Tw",
"year_built": 1988
},
{
"address": "1319 N 12th Street",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1319-n-12th-street-temple",
"price": 215000,
"price_per_sqft": 183.45,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1172,
"sqft_delta": -2,
"subdivision": "Patterson Add Ph One",
"year_built": 1996
}
],
"favorable": true,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 1503 E Calhoun Avenue, 1607 Ridgeway Drive, 1319 N 12th Street, this new-construction card is $29/sqft cheaper on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 182.59,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 153.31,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Troy",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 122,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 153.31,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1540,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 97802,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -23030,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 216,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 153.31,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1569,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 99562,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -21270,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 245,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 151.78,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1485,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 104611,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -16221,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 161,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 153.31,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1588,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 106981,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -13851,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 264,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 153.31,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1602,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 110496,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -10336,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 278,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 153.31,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1324,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 120832,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 153.31,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 390,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 208788,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 87956,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -934,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 1800,
"down_payment": 8910,
"effective_price": 178190,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 151.78,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 67,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 319,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1485,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 81446,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 104611,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 169280,
"monthly_mi": 85,
"monthly_pi": 1014,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1098,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 21000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 158913
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 179990,
"effective_price": 179990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 153.31,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 67,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 322,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 390,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 185390,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 208788,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 21000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 35998,
"effective_price": 179990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 153.31,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 67,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 322,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1324,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 97433,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 120832,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 143992,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 934,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 934,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 21000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 135174
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 9000,
"effective_price": 179990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 153.31,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 67,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 322,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1602,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 87098,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 110496,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 170990,
"monthly_mi": 85,
"monthly_pi": 1126,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1212,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 21000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 160783
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 6300,
"effective_price": 179990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 153.31,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 67,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 322,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1588,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 83583,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 106981,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 176730,
"monthly_mi": 81,
"monthly_pi": 1117,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1198,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 21000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 165439
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 179990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 153.31,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 67,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 322,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1569,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 76164,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 99562,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 179990,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1179,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1179,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 21000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 169153
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 179990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 153.31,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 67,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 322,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1540,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 74403,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 97802,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 183860,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1150,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1150,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 21000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 171914
}
}
},
"id": "7d8072638bfb",
"incentive_types": [
"closing_costs",
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"preferred_lender",
"price_reduction"
],
"negotiability_score": 100,
"original_price": 200990,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 179990,
"price_cut": 21000,
"rate": "4.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: closing-cost concession language, limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, preferred-lender requirement, price reduction.",
"sqft": 1174,
"subdivision": "College Park",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "3202 Salt Fork Drive",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": -3.33,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": -2.16,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "903 Cliffside Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "903-cliffside-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 250000,
"price_per_sqft": 159.24,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1570,
"sqft_delta": -4,
"subdivision": "Tanglewood North Second Unit",
"year_built": 1979
},
{
"address": "1703 Quarry Trail",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1703-quarry-trail-harker-heights",
"price": 212500,
"price_per_sqft": 136.92,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1552,
"sqft_delta": -22,
"subdivision": "Fawn Valley Rep Blks 1-2",
"year_built": 1995
},
{
"address": "2010 Shadow Ridge Road",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "2010-shadow-ridge-road-harker-heights",
"price": 238500,
"price_per_sqft": 154.47,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1544,
"sqft_delta": -30,
"subdivision": "Whitten Place",
"year_built": 1993
}
],
"favorable": true,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 903 Cliffside Drive, 1703 Quarry Trail, 2010 Shadow Ridge Road, this new-construction card is $3/sqft cheaper on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 154.47,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 151.14,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Victory Homes",
"city": "Killeen",
"closing_credit": 12000,
"dom": 372,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 151.14,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2036,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 122131,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -30441,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 286,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 151.14,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2074,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 124459,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -28113,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 324,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 151.14,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2099,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 134265,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -18307,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 349,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 151.14,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1982,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 134859,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -17713,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 232,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 151.14,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2117,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 138910,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -13662,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 367,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 151.14,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1750,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 152572,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 151.14,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 515,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 268827,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 116255,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1235,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 12000,
"down_payment": 11895,
"effective_price": 237900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 151.14,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 89,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 426,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1982,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 103932,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 134859,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 226005,
"monthly_mi": 113,
"monthly_pi": 1354,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1467,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 9100,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 212164
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 12000,
"down_payment": 237900,
"effective_price": 237900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 151.14,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 89,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 426,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 515,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 237900,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 268827,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 9100,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 12000,
"down_payment": 47580,
"effective_price": 237900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 151.14,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 89,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 426,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1750,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 121645,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 152572,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 190320,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1234,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1234,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 9100,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 178664
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 12000,
"down_payment": 11895,
"effective_price": 237900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 151.14,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 89,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 426,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2117,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 107983,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 138910,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 226005,
"monthly_mi": 113,
"monthly_pi": 1488,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1601,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 9100,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 212513
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 12000,
"down_payment": 8326,
"effective_price": 237900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 151.14,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 89,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 426,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2099,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 103338,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 134265,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 233591,
"monthly_mi": 107,
"monthly_pi": 1476,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1584,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 9100,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 218667
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 12000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 237900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 151.14,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 89,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 426,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2074,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 93532,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 124459,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 237900,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1559,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1559,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 9100,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 223576
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 12000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 237900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 151.14,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 89,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 426,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2036,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 91204,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 122131,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 243015,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1520,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1520,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 9100,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 227225
}
}
},
"id": "24ca24889a3c",
"incentive_types": [
"closing_costs",
"price_reduction",
"rate_buydown"
],
"negotiability_score": 98,
"original_price": 259000,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 249900,
"price_cut": 9100,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: closing-cost concession language, price reduction, rate buydown language.",
"sqft": 1574,
"subdivision": "Goodnight Ranch Add",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "3200 Salt Fork Drive",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": -19.02,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": -11.71,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "1705 Lynx Circle",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1705-lynx-circle-harker-heights",
"price": 269900,
"price_per_sqft": 162.39,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1662,
"sqft_delta": 2,
"subdivision": "Country Trails Add 6th Ph",
"year_built": 1992
},
{
"address": "2006 Longmeadow Road",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "2006-longmeadow-road-harker-heights",
"price": 314900,
"price_per_sqft": 191.31,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1646,
"sqft_delta": -14,
"subdivision": "Whitten Place",
"year_built": 1988
},
{
"address": "712 End O Trail",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "712-end-o-trail-harker-heights",
"price": 268000,
"price_per_sqft": 159.9,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1676,
"sqft_delta": 16,
"subdivision": "Sun Meadows Ph One",
"year_built": 1986
}
],
"favorable": true,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 1705 Lynx Circle, 2006 Longmeadow Road, 712 End O Trail, this new-construction card is $19/sqft cheaper on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 162.39,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 143.37,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Victory Homes",
"city": "Killeen",
"closing_credit": 12000,
"dom": 195,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 143.37,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2036,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 122183,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -30453,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 285,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 143.37,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2075,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 124511,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -28125,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 324,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 143.37,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2100,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 134321,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -18315,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 349,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 143.37,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1983,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 134915,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -17721,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 232,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 143.37,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2118,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 138969,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -13667,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 367,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 143.37,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1751,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 152636,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 143.37,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 516,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 268940,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 116304,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1235,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 12000,
"down_payment": 11900,
"effective_price": 238000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 143.37,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 89,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 426,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1983,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 103975,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 134915,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 226100,
"monthly_mi": 113,
"monthly_pi": 1354,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1467,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 15000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 212253
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 12000,
"down_payment": 238000,
"effective_price": 238000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 143.37,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 89,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 426,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 516,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 238000,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 268940,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 15000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 12000,
"down_payment": 47600,
"effective_price": 238000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 143.37,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 89,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 426,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1751,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 121696,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 152636,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 190400,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1235,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1235,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 15000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 178739
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 12000,
"down_payment": 11900,
"effective_price": 238000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 143.37,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 89,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 426,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2118,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 108029,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 138969,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 226100,
"monthly_mi": 113,
"monthly_pi": 1489,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1602,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 15000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 212602
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 12000,
"down_payment": 8330,
"effective_price": 238000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 143.37,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 89,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 426,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2100,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 103381,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 134321,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 233689,
"monthly_mi": 107,
"monthly_pi": 1477,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1584,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 15000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 218759
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 12000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 238000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 143.37,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 89,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 426,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2075,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 93571,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 124511,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 238000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1560,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1560,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 15000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 223670
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 12000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 238000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 143.37,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 89,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 426,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2036,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 91243,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 122183,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 243117,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1521,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1521,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 15000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 227321
}
}
},
"id": "bedd0c87ba83",
"incentive_types": [
"closing_costs",
"price_reduction",
"rate_buydown"
],
"negotiability_score": 98,
"original_price": 265000,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 250000,
"price_cut": 15000,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: closing-cost concession language, price reduction, rate buydown language.",
"sqft": 1660,
"subdivision": "Goodnight Ranch Add",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "6003 Dorado Drive",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 16.91,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 11.2,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "416 Canoe Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "416-canoe-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 270000,
"price_per_sqft": 150.92,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1789,
"sqft_delta": 14,
"subdivision": "Skipcha Mountain Estates Ph",
"year_built": 2004
},
{
"address": "709 Bighorn Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "709-bighorn-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 288000,
"price_per_sqft": 163.54,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1761,
"sqft_delta": -14,
"subdivision": "Skipcha Mountain Estates Ph",
"year_built": 2005
},
{
"address": "922 Ashwood Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "922-ashwood-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 179000,
"price_per_sqft": 99.89,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1792,
"sqft_delta": 17,
"subdivision": "Wildewood Acres",
"year_built": 2000
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 416 Canoe Drive, 709 Bighorn Drive, 922 Ashwood Drive, this new-construction card is $17/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 150.92,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 167.83,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Lagan Construction",
"city": "Killeen",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 215,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 167.83,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2549,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 161871,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -38117,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 358,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 167.83,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2597,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 164785,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -35203,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 406,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.15,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2457,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 173140,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -26848,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 266,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 167.83,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2628,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 177064,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -22924,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 437,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 167.83,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2651,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 182881,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -17107,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 460,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 167.83,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2191,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 199988,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 167.83,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 645,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 345564,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 145576,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1546,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 2979,
"down_payment": 14746,
"effective_price": 294921,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.15,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 111,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 528,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2457,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 134801,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 173140,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 280175,
"monthly_mi": 140,
"monthly_pi": 1678,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1818,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 22000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 263016
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 297900,
"effective_price": 297900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 167.83,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 112,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 534,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 645,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 306837,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 345564,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 22000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 59580,
"effective_price": 297900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 167.83,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 112,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 534,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2191,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 161261,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 199988,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 238320,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1546,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1546,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 22000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 223725
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 14895,
"effective_price": 297900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 167.83,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 112,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 534,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2651,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 144154,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 182881,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 283005,
"monthly_mi": 142,
"monthly_pi": 1864,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2005,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 22000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 266110
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 10427,
"effective_price": 297900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 167.83,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 112,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 534,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2628,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 138337,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 177064,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 292504,
"monthly_mi": 134,
"monthly_pi": 1849,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1983,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 22000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 273816
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 297900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 167.83,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 112,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 534,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2597,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 126058,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 164785,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 297900,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1952,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1952,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 22000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 279964
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 297900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 167.83,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 112,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 534,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2549,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 123144,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 161871,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 304305,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1903,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1903,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 22000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 284533
}
}
},
"id": "290105e37848",
"incentive_types": [
"closing_costs",
"exclusive_savings",
"price_reduction",
"rate_buydown"
],
"negotiability_score": 98,
"original_price": 319900,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 297900,
"price_cut": 22000,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: closing-cost concession language, limited incentive language, price reduction, rate buydown language.",
"sqft": 1775,
"subdivision": "Levy Xing",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "3718 Oglala Trail",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 77.67,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 74.3,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "1017 S 47th Street",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "1017-s-47th-street-temple",
"price": 153250,
"price_per_sqft": 104.54,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-0-500.csv",
"sqft": 1466,
"sqft_delta": -1,
"subdivision": "Bellview",
"year_built": 1950
},
{
"address": "828 Starlight Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "828-starlight-drive-temple",
"price": 249828,
"price_per_sqft": 170.18,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-14-2026-mls-templebelton.csv",
"sqft": 1468,
"sqft_delta": 1,
"subdivision": "Windmill Farms Ph II",
"year_built": 2011
},
{
"address": "2001 S 9th Street",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "2001-s-9th-street-temple",
"price": 146000,
"price_per_sqft": 99.39,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-14-2026-mls-templebelton.csv",
"sqft": 1469,
"sqft_delta": 2,
"subdivision": "Hollywood Add",
"year_built": 1952
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 1017 S 47th Street, 828 Starlight Drive, 2001 S 9th Street, this new-construction card is $78/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 104.54,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 182.21,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Cory Herring Homes",
"city": "Temple",
"closing_credit": 11500,
"dom": 320,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 182.21,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2287,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 137224,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -34203,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 321,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 182.21,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2331,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 139839,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -31588,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 365,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 182.21,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2358,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 150857,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -20570,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 392,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 182.21,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2227,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 151525,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -19902,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 261,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 182.21,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2379,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 156077,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -15350,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 413,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 182.21,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1966,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 171427,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 182.21,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 579,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 302049,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 130622,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1387,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 11500,
"down_payment": 13365,
"effective_price": 267300,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 182.21,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 100,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 479,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2227,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 116776,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 151525,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 253935,
"monthly_mi": 127,
"monthly_pi": 1521,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1648,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 100,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 238383
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 11500,
"down_payment": 267300,
"effective_price": 267300,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 182.21,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 100,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 479,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 579,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 267300,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 302049,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 100,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 11500,
"down_payment": 53460,
"effective_price": 267300,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 182.21,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 100,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 479,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1966,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 136678,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 171427,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 213840,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1387,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1387,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 100,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 200744
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 11500,
"down_payment": 13365,
"effective_price": 267300,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 182.21,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 100,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 479,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2379,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 121328,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 156077,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 253935,
"monthly_mi": 127,
"monthly_pi": 1672,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1799,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 100,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 238776
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 11500,
"down_payment": 9356,
"effective_price": 267300,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 182.21,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 100,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 479,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2358,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 116108,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 150857,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 262459,
"monthly_mi": 120,
"monthly_pi": 1659,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1779,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 100,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 245690
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 11500,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 267300,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 182.21,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 100,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 479,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2331,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 105090,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 139839,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 267300,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1752,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1752,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 100,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 251206
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 11500,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 267300,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 182.21,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 100,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 479,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2287,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 102475,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 137224,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 273047,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1708,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1708,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 100,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 255306
}
}
},
"id": "bed46dc50394",
"incentive_types": [
"builder_concession",
"closing_costs",
"price_reduction",
"rate_buydown"
],
"negotiability_score": 98,
"original_price": 278900,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 278800,
"price_cut": 100,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: builder concession language, closing-cost concession language, price reduction, rate buydown language.",
"sqft": 1467,
"subdivision": "Prairie Ridge",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "1020 Peppermint Drive",
"apr": "5.775%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 30.2,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 22.44,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "2505 Canyon Creek Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "2505-canyon-creek-drive-temple",
"price": 249900,
"price_per_sqft": 134.57,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1857,
"sqft_delta": 3,
"subdivision": "Cliffs Of Canyon Creek Ph I",
"year_built": 1983
},
{
"address": "3811 River Oaks Circle",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "3811-river-oaks-circle-temple",
"price": 237900,
"price_per_sqft": 128.59,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1850,
"sqft_delta": -4,
"subdivision": "The Oaks",
"year_built": 1981
},
{
"address": "5921 Stanford Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "5921-stanford-drive-temple",
"price": 289000,
"price_per_sqft": 156.47,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1847,
"sqft_delta": -7,
"subdivision": "Alta Vista I",
"year_built": 2013
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 2505 Canyon Creek Drive, 3811 River Oaks Circle, 5921 Stanford Drive, this new-construction card is $30/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 134.57,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 164.77,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Temple",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 149,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.77,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2614,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 165995,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -39089,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 367,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.77,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2664,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 168983,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -36101,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 417,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 163.13,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2520,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 177551,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -27533,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 273,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.77,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2695,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 181575,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -23509,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 448,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.77,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2718,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 187541,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -17543,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 471,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.77,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2247,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 205084,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.77,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 662,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 354368,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 149284,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1585,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 3055,
"down_payment": 15122,
"effective_price": 302435,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 163.13,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 113,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 542,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2520,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 138235,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 177551,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 287313,
"monthly_mi": 144,
"monthly_pi": 1721,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1864,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 14630,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 269717
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 305490,
"effective_price": 305490,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.77,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 115,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 547,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 662,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 314655,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 354368,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 14630,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 61098,
"effective_price": 305490,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.77,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 115,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 547,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2247,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 165370,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 205084,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 244392,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1585,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1585,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 14630,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 229425
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 15274,
"effective_price": 305490,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.77,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 115,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 547,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2718,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 147827,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 187541,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 290216,
"monthly_mi": 145,
"monthly_pi": 1911,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2056,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 14630,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 272890
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 10692,
"effective_price": 305490,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.77,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 115,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 547,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2695,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 141862,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 181575,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 299957,
"monthly_mi": 137,
"monthly_pi": 1896,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2033,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 14630,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 280793
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 305490,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.77,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 115,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 547,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2664,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 129270,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 168983,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 305490,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2002,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2002,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 14630,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 287097
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 305490,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.77,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 115,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 547,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2614,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 126281,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 165995,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 312058,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1952,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1952,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 14630,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 291782
}
}
},
"id": "44346bcb1b7f",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"price_reduction"
],
"negotiability_score": 98,
"original_price": 320120,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 305490,
"price_cut": 14630,
"rate": "4.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, price reduction.",
"sqft": 1854,
"subdivision": "Oak Ridge",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "1410 Flatland Trail",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 2.81,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 1.66,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "1607 Black Kettle Trail",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "1607-black-kettle-trail-temple",
"price": 268000,
"price_per_sqft": 150.82,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1777,
"sqft_delta": 0,
"subdivision": "Prairie Ridge Ph I",
"year_built": 2021
},
{
"address": "2036 Clear Sky Court",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "2036-clear-sky-court-temple",
"price": 349990,
"price_per_sqft": 196.73,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1779,
"sqft_delta": 2,
"subdivision": "Mesa Rdg Ph II",
"year_built": 2022
},
{
"address": "5805 Butterfly Ct.",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "5805-butterfly-ct-temple",
"price": 299500,
"price_per_sqft": 168.83,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1774,
"sqft_delta": -3,
"subdivision": "Bentwood Phase IV",
"year_built": 2009
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 1607 Black Kettle Trail, 2036 Clear Sky Court, 5805 Butterfly Ct., this new-construction card is $3/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 168.83,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 171.64,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Jerry Wright Homes",
"city": "Temple",
"closing_credit": 10000,
"dom": 325,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 171.64,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2610,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 156579,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -39026,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 367,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 171.64,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2659,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 159562,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -36043,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 416,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 171.64,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2691,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 172134,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -23471,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 448,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 171.64,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2541,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 172896,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -22709,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 298,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 171.64,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2714,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 178090,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -17515,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 471,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 171.64,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2243,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 195605,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 171.64,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 661,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 344650,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 149045,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1582,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 15250,
"effective_price": 305000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 171.64,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 114,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 546,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2541,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 133246,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 172896,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 289750,
"monthly_mi": 145,
"monthly_pi": 1735,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1880,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 14900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 272005
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 305000,
"effective_price": 305000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 171.64,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 114,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 546,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 661,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 305000,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 344650,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 14900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 61000,
"effective_price": 305000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 171.64,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 114,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 546,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2243,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 155955,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 195605,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 244000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1583,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1583,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 14900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 229057
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 15250,
"effective_price": 305000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 171.64,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 114,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 546,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2714,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 138440,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 178090,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 289750,
"monthly_mi": 145,
"monthly_pi": 1908,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2053,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 14900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 272453
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 10675,
"effective_price": 305000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 171.64,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 114,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 546,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2691,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 132484,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 172134,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 299476,
"monthly_mi": 137,
"monthly_pi": 1893,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2030,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 14900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 280342
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 305000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 171.64,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 114,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 546,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2659,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 119912,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 159562,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 305000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1999,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1999,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 14900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 286636
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 305000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 171.64,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 114,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 546,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2610,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 116929,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 156579,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 311558,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1949,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1949,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 14900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 291314
}
}
},
"id": "be4727edca2a",
"incentive_types": [
"closing_costs",
"price_reduction",
"rate_buydown"
],
"negotiability_score": 98,
"original_price": 329900,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 315000,
"price_cut": 14900,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: closing-cost concession language, price reduction, rate buydown language.",
"sqft": 1777,
"subdivision": "Prairie Ridge",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "2809 McKinney Court",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 34.19,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 25.67,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "5318 Whistle Stop Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "5318-whistle-stop-drive-temple",
"price": 265000,
"price_per_sqft": 141.03,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1879,
"sqft_delta": -3,
"subdivision": "Echo Village Ph Two",
"year_built": 2004
},
{
"address": "5153 Goliad Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "5153-goliad-drive-temple",
"price": 250000,
"price_per_sqft": 132.56,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1886,
"sqft_delta": 4,
"subdivision": "Tanglewood",
"year_built": 1993
},
{
"address": "4001 Trailwood Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "4001-trailwood-drive-temple",
"price": 250000,
"price_per_sqft": 133.19,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1877,
"sqft_delta": -5,
"subdivision": "Trailwood",
"year_built": 1981
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 5318 Whistle Stop Drive, 5153 Goliad Drive, 4001 Trailwood Drive, this new-construction card is $34/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 133.19,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 167.38,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Jerry Wright Hms",
"city": "Temple",
"closing_credit": 10000,
"dom": 161,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 167.38,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2695,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 161712,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -40306,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 378,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 167.38,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2747,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 164794,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -37224,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 430,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 167.38,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2779,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 177778,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -24240,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 462,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 167.38,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2624,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 178565,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -23453,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 307,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 167.38,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2803,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 183929,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -18089,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 486,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 167.38,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2317,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 202018,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 167.38,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 682,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 355950,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 153932,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1635,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 15750,
"effective_price": 315000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 167.38,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 118,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 564,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2624,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 137615,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 178565,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 299250,
"monthly_mi": 150,
"monthly_pi": 1792,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1942,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 14900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 280923
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 315000,
"effective_price": 315000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 167.38,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 118,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 564,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 682,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 315000,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 355950,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 14900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 63000,
"effective_price": 315000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 167.38,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 118,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 564,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2317,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 161068,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 202018,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 252000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1634,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1634,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 14900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 236567
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 15750,
"effective_price": 315000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 167.38,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 118,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 564,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2803,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 142979,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 183929,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 299250,
"monthly_mi": 150,
"monthly_pi": 1971,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2120,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 14900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 281386
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 11025,
"effective_price": 315000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 167.38,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 118,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 564,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2779,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 136828,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 177778,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 309295,
"monthly_mi": 142,
"monthly_pi": 1955,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2097,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 14900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 289534
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 315000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 167.38,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 118,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 564,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2747,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 123844,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 164794,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 315000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2064,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2064,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 14900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 296034
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 315000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 167.38,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 118,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 564,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2695,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 120762,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 161712,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 321772,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2013,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2013,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 14900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 300866
}
}
},
"id": "b3390bd93ca1",
"incentive_types": [
"closing_costs",
"price_reduction",
"rate_buydown"
],
"negotiability_score": 98,
"original_price": 339900,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 325000,
"price_cut": 14900,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: closing-cost concession language, price reduction, rate buydown language.",
"sqft": 1882,
"subdivision": "County View Add",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "1005 Nacogdoches Drive",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 26.42,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 19.13,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "601 W Zenith Avenue",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "601-w-zenith-avenue-temple",
"price": 269700,
"price_per_sqft": 138.1,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1953,
"sqft_delta": -3,
"subdivision": "D H Buchanan Add Second S",
"year_built": 1963
},
{
"address": "2010 S 49th Street",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "2010-s-49th-street-temple",
"price": 230000,
"price_per_sqft": 117.29,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1961,
"sqft_delta": 5,
"subdivision": "Skyline",
"year_built": 1962
},
{
"address": "1503 Fiddle Wood Way",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "1503-fiddle-wood-way-temple",
"price": 299999,
"price_per_sqft": 153.77,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1951,
"sqft_delta": -5,
"subdivision": "Prairie Rdg Ph II",
"year_built": 2022
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 601 W Zenith Avenue, 2010 S 49th Street, 1503 Fiddle Wood Way, this new-construction card is $26/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 138.1,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 164.52,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Jerry Wright Homes,",
"city": "Temple",
"closing_credit": 10000,
"dom": 150,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.52,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2753,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 165203,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -41176,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 386,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.52,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2806,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 168351,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -38028,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 439,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.52,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2839,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 181615,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -24764,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 472,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.52,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2681,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 182419,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -23960,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 314,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.52,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2863,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 187900,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -18479,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 496,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.52,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2367,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 206379,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.52,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 697,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 363634,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 157255,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1670,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 16090,
"effective_price": 321800,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.52,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 121,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 577,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2681,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 140585,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 182419,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 305710,
"monthly_mi": 153,
"monthly_pi": 1831,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1984,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 13200,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 286987
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 321800,
"effective_price": 321800,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.52,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 121,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 577,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 697,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 321800,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 363634,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 13200,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 64360,
"effective_price": 321800,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.52,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 121,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 577,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2367,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 164545,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 206379,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 257440,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1670,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1670,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 13200,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 241674
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 16090,
"effective_price": 321800,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.52,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 121,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 577,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2863,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 146066,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 187900,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 305710,
"monthly_mi": 153,
"monthly_pi": 2013,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2166,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 13200,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 287460
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 11263,
"effective_price": 321800,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.52,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 121,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 577,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2839,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 139781,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 181615,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 315971,
"monthly_mi": 145,
"monthly_pi": 1997,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2142,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 13200,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 295784
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 321800,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.52,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 121,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 577,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2806,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 126517,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 168351,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 321800,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2109,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2109,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 13200,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 302425
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 321800,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.52,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 121,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 577,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2753,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 123369,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 165203,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 328719,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2056,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2056,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 13200,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 307360
}
}
},
"id": "09eac3ba293d",
"incentive_types": [
"closing_costs",
"price_reduction",
"rate_buydown"
],
"negotiability_score": 98,
"original_price": 345000,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 331800,
"price_cut": 13200,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: closing-cost concession language, price reduction, rate buydown language.",
"sqft": 1956,
"subdivision": "County View Add",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "1721 Paint Horse Trail",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 17.2,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 10.96,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "1800 Ridgewood Court",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "1800-ridgewood-court-harker-heights",
"price": 399000,
"price_per_sqft": 199.7,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1998,
"sqft_delta": 2,
"subdivision": "Woodridge Estates",
"year_built": 2021
},
{
"address": "402 Cottonwood Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "402-cottonwood-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 230000,
"price_per_sqft": 115.46,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1992,
"sqft_delta": -4,
"subdivision": "Meadow Acres 1st Ext Rep L",
"year_built": 1976
},
{
"address": "217 W Mockingbird Lane",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "217-w-mockingbird-lane-harker-heights",
"price": 315000,
"price_per_sqft": 156.95,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 2007,
"sqft_delta": 11,
"subdivision": "Meadow Acres 1st Ext",
"year_built": 1976
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 1800 Ridgewood Court, 402 Cottonwood Drive, 217 W Mockingbird Lane, this new-construction card is $17/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 156.95,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 174.15,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "King Signature Homes",
"city": "Harker Heights",
"closing_credit": 15000,
"dom": 343,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.15,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2974,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 178448,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -44477,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 417,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.15,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3031,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 181849,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -41076,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 474,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.15,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3067,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 196176,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -26749,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 510,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.15,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2896,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 197045,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -25880,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 339,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.15,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3093,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 202964,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -19961,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 536,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.15,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2557,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 222925,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.15,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 753,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 392788,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 169863,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1804,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 17380,
"effective_price": 347600,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.15,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 130,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 623,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2896,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 151857,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 197045,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 330220,
"monthly_mi": 165,
"monthly_pi": 1978,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2143,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 27300,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 309996
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 347600,
"effective_price": 347600,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.15,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 130,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 623,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 753,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 347600,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 392788,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 27300,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 69520,
"effective_price": 347600,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.15,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 130,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 623,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2557,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 177737,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 222925,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 278080,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1804,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1804,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 27300,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 261050
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 17380,
"effective_price": 347600,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.15,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 130,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 623,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3093,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 157776,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 202964,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 330220,
"monthly_mi": 165,
"monthly_pi": 2175,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2340,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 27300,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 310507
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 12166,
"effective_price": 347600,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.15,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 130,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 623,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3067,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 150988,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 196176,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 341304,
"monthly_mi": 156,
"monthly_pi": 2157,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2314,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 27300,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 319498
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 347600,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.15,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 130,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 623,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3031,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 136661,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 181849,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 347600,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2278,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2278,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 27300,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 326671
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 347600,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.15,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 130,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 623,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2974,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 133260,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 178448,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 355073,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2221,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2221,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 27300,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 332003
}
}
},
"id": "50233a7269ae",
"incentive_types": [
"closing_costs",
"lender_credit",
"preferred_lender",
"price_reduction"
],
"negotiability_score": 95,
"original_price": 389900,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 362600,
"price_cut": 27300,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: closing-cost concession language, lender-credit language, preferred-lender requirement, price reduction.",
"sqft": 1996,
"subdivision": "THE VILLAGE AT NOLAN HEIGHTS",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "1717 Paint Horse Trail",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 38.59,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 28.76,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "2112 Modoc Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "2112-modoc-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 249900,
"price_per_sqft": 114.06,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 2191,
"sqft_delta": 15,
"subdivision": "Skipcha Mountain Estates Ph",
"year_built": 1999
},
{
"address": "2111 Chinaberry Circle",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "2111-chinaberry-circle-harker-heights",
"price": 290000,
"price_per_sqft": 134.2,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 2161,
"sqft_delta": -15,
"subdivision": "Oakridge Terraace",
"year_built": 1978
},
{
"address": "818 Terra Cotta Court",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "818-terra-cotta-court-harker-heights",
"price": 360000,
"price_per_sqft": 167.6,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 2148,
"sqft_delta": -28,
"subdivision": "Tuscany Meadows Ph 1",
"year_built": 2015
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 2112 Modoc Drive, 2111 Chinaberry Circle, 818 Terra Cotta Court, this new-construction card is $39/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 134.2,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 172.79,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "King Signature Homes",
"city": "Harker Heights",
"closing_credit": 15000,
"dom": 322,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.79,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3217,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 193028,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -48111,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 451,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.79,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3278,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 196706,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -44433,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 512,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.79,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3317,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 212205,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -28934,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 551,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.79,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3133,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 213144,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -27995,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 367,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.79,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3346,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 219547,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -21592,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 580,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.79,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2766,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 241139,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.79,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 815,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 424880,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 183741,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1951,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 18800,
"effective_price": 376000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.79,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 141,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 674,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3133,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 164264,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 213144,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 357200,
"monthly_mi": 179,
"monthly_pi": 2139,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2318,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 34000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 335324
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 376000,
"effective_price": 376000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.79,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 141,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 674,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 815,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 376000,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 424880,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 34000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 75200,
"effective_price": 376000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.79,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 141,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 674,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2766,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 192259,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 241139,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 300800,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1951,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1951,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 34000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 282378
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 18800,
"effective_price": 376000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.79,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 141,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 674,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3346,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 170667,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 219547,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 357200,
"monthly_mi": 179,
"monthly_pi": 2353,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2531,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 34000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 335876
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 13160,
"effective_price": 376000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.79,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 141,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 674,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3317,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 163325,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 212205,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 369190,
"monthly_mi": 169,
"monthly_pi": 2334,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2503,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 34000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 345602
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 376000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.79,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 141,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 674,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3278,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 147826,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 196706,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 376000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2464,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2464,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 34000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 353361
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 376000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.79,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 141,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 674,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3217,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 144148,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 193028,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 384084,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2402,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2402,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 34000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 359128
}
}
},
"id": "df671043e206",
"incentive_types": [
"closing_costs",
"lender_credit",
"preferred_lender",
"price_reduction"
],
"negotiability_score": 95,
"original_price": 425000,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 391000,
"price_cut": 34000,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: closing-cost concession language, lender-credit language, preferred-lender requirement, price reduction.",
"sqft": 2176,
"subdivision": "THE VILLAGE AT NOLAN HEIGHTS",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "4031 Prairie Drive",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 48.3,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 33.42,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "2612 Laguna Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "2612-laguna-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 300000,
"price_per_sqft": 134.41,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 2232,
"sqft_delta": 2,
"subdivision": "Skipcha Mt. Est",
"year_built": 2009
},
{
"address": "821 Kendra Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "821-kendra-drive-temple",
"price": 322000,
"price_per_sqft": 144.52,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2228,
"sqft_delta": -2,
"subdivision": "Canyon Ridge Ph III",
"year_built": 2017
},
{
"address": "2631 Cedar Glen Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "2631-cedar-glen-drive-belton",
"price": 380000,
"price_per_sqft": 170.56,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2228,
"sqft_delta": -2,
"subdivision": "Hubbard Branch Add Ph",
"year_built": 2021
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 2612 Laguna Drive, 821 Kendra Drive, 2631 Cedar Glen Drive, this new-construction card is $48/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 144.52,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 192.82,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Nolanville",
"closing_credit": 20000,
"dom": 204,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 192.82,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3679,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 220745,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -55019,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 516,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 192.82,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3749,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 224952,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -50812,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 586,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 192.82,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3794,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 242675,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -33089,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 631,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 192.82,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3582,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 243749,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -32015,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 419,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 192.82,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3826,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 251072,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -24692,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 663,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 192.82,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3163,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 275764,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 192.82,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 932,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 485889,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 210125,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -2231,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 20000,
"down_payment": 21500,
"effective_price": 429990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 192.82,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 161,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 770,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3582,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 187850,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 243749,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 408490,
"monthly_mi": 204,
"monthly_pi": 2446,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2651,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 32296,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 383473
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 20000,
"down_payment": 429990,
"effective_price": 429990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 192.82,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 161,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 770,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 932,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 429990,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 485889,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 32296,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 20000,
"down_payment": 85998,
"effective_price": 429990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 192.82,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 161,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 770,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3163,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 219866,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 275764,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 343992,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2231,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2231,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 32296,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 322925
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 20000,
"down_payment": 21500,
"effective_price": 429990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 192.82,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 161,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 770,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3826,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 195173,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 251072,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 408490,
"monthly_mi": 204,
"monthly_pi": 2690,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2895,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 32296,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 384105
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 20000,
"down_payment": 15050,
"effective_price": 429990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 192.82,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 161,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 770,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3794,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 186776,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 242675,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 422202,
"monthly_mi": 194,
"monthly_pi": 2669,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2862,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 32296,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 395227
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 20000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 429990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 192.82,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 161,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 770,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3749,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 169053,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 224952,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 429990,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2818,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2818,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 32296,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 404101
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 20000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 429990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 192.82,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 161,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 770,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3679,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 164846,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 220745,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 439235,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2747,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2747,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 32296,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 410696
}
}
},
"id": "f42b723bc344",
"incentive_types": [
"closing_costs",
"exclusive_savings",
"preferred_lender",
"price_reduction"
],
"negotiability_score": 95,
"original_price": 482286,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 449990,
"price_cut": 32296,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: closing-cost concession language, limited incentive language, preferred-lender requirement, price reduction.",
"sqft": 2230,
"subdivision": "Bella Charca Phase 12",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "2042 Gray Fox Drive",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 58.12,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 41.09,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "6006 Ambrose Circle",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "6006-ambrose-circle-temple",
"price": 357999,
"price_per_sqft": 115.15,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 3109,
"sqft_delta": 2,
"subdivision": "Alta Vista II",
"year_built": 2014
},
{
"address": "2123 Grizzly Trail",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "2123-grizzly-trail-harker-heights",
"price": 440000,
"price_per_sqft": 141.43,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 3111,
"sqft_delta": 4,
"subdivision": "Country Trails Add 16th P",
"year_built": 2004
},
{
"address": "6110 Wooded Creek Cove",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "6110-wooded-creek-cove-temple",
"price": 599999,
"price_per_sqft": 192.74,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-0-500.csv",
"sqft": 3113,
"sqft_delta": 6,
"subdivision": "The Creeks At Deerfield",
"year_built": 2007
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 6006 Ambrose Circle, 2123 Grizzly Trail, 6110 Wooded Creek Cove, this new-construction card is $58/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 141.43,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 199.55,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Nolanville",
"closing_credit": 10000,
"dom": 248,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 199.55,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5305,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 327186,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -79330,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 745,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 199.55,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5406,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 333251,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -73265,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 846,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 199.55,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5470,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 358806,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -47710,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 910,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 199.55,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5165,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 360354,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -46162,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 605,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 199.55,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5517,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 370913,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -35603,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 957,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 199.55,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4560,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 406516,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 199.55,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1343,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 709488,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 302972,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -3217,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 31000,
"effective_price": 619990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 199.55,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 232,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1111,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5165,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 279756,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 360354,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 588990,
"monthly_mi": 294,
"monthly_pi": 3528,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3822,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 68427,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 552919
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 619990,
"effective_price": 619990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 199.55,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 232,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1111,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1343,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 628890,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 709488,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 68427,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 123998,
"effective_price": 619990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 199.55,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 232,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1111,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4560,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 325917,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 406516,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 495992,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3217,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3217,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 68427,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 465616
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 31000,
"effective_price": 619990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 199.55,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 232,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1111,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5517,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 290314,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 370913,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 588990,
"monthly_mi": 294,
"monthly_pi": 3879,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4174,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 68427,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 553829
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 21700,
"effective_price": 619990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 199.55,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 232,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1111,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5470,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 278207,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 358806,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 608760,
"monthly_mi": 279,
"monthly_pi": 3848,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4127,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 68427,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 569867
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 619990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 199.55,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 232,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1111,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5406,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 252652,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 333251,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 619990,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 4063,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4063,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 68427,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 582661
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 619990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 199.55,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 232,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1111,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5305,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 246587,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 327186,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 633320,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3961,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3961,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 68427,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 592170
}
}
},
"id": "06b361df3a0d",
"incentive_types": [
"closing_costs",
"exclusive_savings",
"preferred_lender",
"price_reduction"
],
"negotiability_score": 95,
"original_price": 698417,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 629990,
"price_cut": 68427,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: closing-cost concession language, limited incentive language, preferred-lender requirement, price reduction.",
"sqft": 3107,
"subdivision": "Bella Charca Phase 11",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "6642 King Oaks Boulevard",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 29.0,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 13.78,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "1250 E Creekview Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "1250-e-creekview-drive-salado",
"price": 910000,
"price_per_sqft": 295.84,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 3076,
"sqft_delta": -6,
"subdivision": "Hidden Spgs Sec One",
"year_built": 2021
},
{
"address": "1708 Meadow Crest Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "1708-meadow-crest-drive-salado",
"price": 600000,
"price_per_sqft": 197.17,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 3043,
"sqft_delta": -39,
"subdivision": "Mill Crk Spgs Ph X",
"year_built": 2021
},
{
"address": "7511 N Lakeview Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "7511-n-lakeview-drive-salado",
"price": 640000,
"price_per_sqft": 210.39,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 3042,
"sqft_delta": -40,
"subdivision": "The Woods Of Salado",
"year_built": 1994
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 1250 E Creekview Drive, 1708 Meadow Crest Drive, 7511 N Lakeview Drive, this new-construction card is $29/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 210.39,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 239.39,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Salado",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 123,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 239.39,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6313,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 400907,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -94407,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 886,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 239.39,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6433,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 408125,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -87189,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 1006,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 237.0,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6085,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 428819,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -66495,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 658,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 239.39,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6510,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 438537,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -56777,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 1083,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 239.39,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6565,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 452945,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -42369,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 1138,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 239.39,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5427,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 495314,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 239.39,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1599,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 855863,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 360549,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -3828,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 7378,
"down_payment": 36522,
"effective_price": 730435,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 237.0,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 274,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1309,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6085,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 333863,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 428819,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 693913,
"monthly_mi": 347,
"monthly_pi": 4156,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4503,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 1977,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 651416
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 737813,
"effective_price": 737813,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 239.39,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 277,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1322,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1599,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 759947,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 855863,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 1977,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 147563,
"effective_price": 737813,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 239.39,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 277,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1322,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5427,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 399398,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 495314,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 590250,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3828,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3828,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 1977,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 554102
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 36891,
"effective_price": 737813,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 239.39,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 277,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1322,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6565,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 357029,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 452945,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 700922,
"monthly_mi": 350,
"monthly_pi": 4616,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4967,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 1977,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 659079
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 25823,
"effective_price": 737813,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 239.39,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 277,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1322,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6510,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 342621,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 438537,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 724449,
"monthly_mi": 332,
"monthly_pi": 4579,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4911,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 1977,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 678164
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 737813,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 239.39,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 277,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1322,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6433,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 312210,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 408125,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 737813,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 4835,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4835,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 1977,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 693390
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 737813,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 239.39,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 277,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1322,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6313,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 304992,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 400907,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 753676,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 4714,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4714,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 1977,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 704706
}
}
},
"id": "eb8f81638a07",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"preferred_lender",
"price_reduction"
],
"negotiability_score": 95,
"original_price": 739790,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 737813,
"price_cut": 1977,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, preferred-lender requirement, price reduction.",
"sqft": 3082,
"subdivision": "King Oaks",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "1735 Bear Grass Ridge Road",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 7.11,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 4.39,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "7405 Buffalo Grass Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "7405-buffalo-grass-drive-temple",
"price": 247000,
"price_per_sqft": 181.48,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1361,
"sqft_delta": 1,
"subdivision": "Villages/Westfield Ph II",
"year_built": 2020
},
{
"address": "4714 Buckskin Trail",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "4714-buckskin-trail-temple",
"price": 220000,
"price_per_sqft": 162.0,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1358,
"sqft_delta": -2,
"subdivision": "Stratford Place Ph I",
"year_built": 1989
},
{
"address": "4413 Lone Star Trail",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "4413-lone-star-trail-temple",
"price": 197000,
"price_per_sqft": 144.11,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1367,
"sqft_delta": 7,
"subdivision": "Canyon Creek Ph IV",
"year_built": 1986
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 7405 Buffalo Grass Drive, 4714 Buckskin Trail, 4413 Lone Star Trail, this new-construction card is $7/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 162.0,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 169.11,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Temple",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 131,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 169.11,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1968,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 124970,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -29429,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 276,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 169.11,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2005,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 127220,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -27179,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 313,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 167.42,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1897,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 133671,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -20728,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 205,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 169.11,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2029,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 136700,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -17699,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 337,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 169.11,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2047,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 141191,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -13208,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 355,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 169.11,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1692,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 154399,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 169.11,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 498,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 266788,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 112389,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1194,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 2300,
"down_payment": 11384,
"effective_price": 227690,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 167.42,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 85,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 408,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1897,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 104071,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 133671,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 216306,
"monthly_mi": 108,
"monthly_pi": 1295,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1404,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 35070,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 203058
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 229990,
"effective_price": 229990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 169.11,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 86,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 412,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 498,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 236890,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 266788,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 35070,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 45998,
"effective_price": 229990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 169.11,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 86,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 412,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1692,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 124500,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 154399,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 183992,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1193,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1193,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 35070,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 172724
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 11500,
"effective_price": 229990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 169.11,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 86,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 412,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2047,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 111293,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 141191,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 218490,
"monthly_mi": 109,
"monthly_pi": 1439,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1548,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 35070,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 205447
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 8050,
"effective_price": 229990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 169.11,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 86,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 412,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2029,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 106801,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 136700,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 225824,
"monthly_mi": 104,
"monthly_pi": 1427,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1531,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 35070,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 211396
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 229990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 169.11,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 86,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 412,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2005,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 97322,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 127220,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 229990,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1507,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1507,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 35070,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 216143
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 229990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 169.11,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 86,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 412,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1968,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 95072,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 124970,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 234935,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1470,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1470,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 35070,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 219670
}
}
},
"id": "79dd72d3267a",
"incentive_types": [
"closing_costs",
"exclusive_savings",
"preferred_lender",
"price_reduction"
],
"negotiability_score": 95,
"original_price": 265060,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 229990,
"price_cut": 35070,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: closing-cost concession language, limited incentive language, preferred-lender requirement, price reduction.",
"sqft": 1360,
"subdivision": "Ridge at Knob Creek",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "2923 Atascosa Drive",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 56.86,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 38.93,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "10008 Smock Mill Lane",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "10008-smock-mill-lane-temple",
"price": 215000,
"price_per_sqft": 146.06,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1472,
"sqft_delta": -1,
"subdivision": "Windmill Farms Ph III",
"year_built": 2013
},
{
"address": "8516 Westway Cove",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "8516-westway-cove-temple",
"price": 279000,
"price_per_sqft": 189.54,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1472,
"sqft_delta": -1,
"subdivision": "Westwood Dev Ph I",
"year_built": 2002
},
{
"address": "3002 Glenwood Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "3002-glenwood-drive-temple",
"price": 199900,
"price_per_sqft": 135.89,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1471,
"sqft_delta": -2,
"subdivision": "Shady Hill",
"year_built": 1964
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 10008 Smock Mill Lane, 8516 Westway Cove, 3002 Glenwood Drive, this new-construction card is $57/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 146.06,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 202.92,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": null,
"city": "Temple",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 707,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 202.92,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2557,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 162414,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -38246,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 358,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 202.92,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2606,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 165338,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -35322,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 407,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 200.89,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2465,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 173722,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -26938,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 266,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 202.92,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2637,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 177658,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -23002,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 438,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 202.92,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2660,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 183495,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -17165,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 461,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 202.92,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2199,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 200660,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 202.92,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 648,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 346724,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 146064,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1551,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 2989,
"down_payment": 14796,
"effective_price": 295911,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 200.89,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 111,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 530,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2465,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 135253,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 173722,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 281115,
"monthly_mi": 141,
"monthly_pi": 1684,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1824,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 6100,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 263899
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 298900,
"effective_price": 298900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 202.92,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 112,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 536,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 648,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 307867,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 346724,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 6100,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 59780,
"effective_price": 298900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 202.92,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 112,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 536,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2199,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 161803,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 200660,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 239120,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1551,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1551,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 6100,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 224476
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 14945,
"effective_price": 298900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 202.92,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 112,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 536,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2660,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 144638,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 183495,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 283955,
"monthly_mi": 142,
"monthly_pi": 1870,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2012,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 6100,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 267004
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 10462,
"effective_price": 298900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 202.92,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 112,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 536,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2637,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 138801,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 177658,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 293486,
"monthly_mi": 135,
"monthly_pi": 1855,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1990,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 6100,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 274735
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 298900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 202.92,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 112,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 536,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2606,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 126481,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 165338,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 298900,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1959,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1959,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 6100,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 280904
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 298900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 202.92,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 112,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 536,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2557,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 123557,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 162414,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 305326,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1910,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1910,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 6100,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 285488
}
}
},
"id": "480eb2cb4072",
"incentive_types": [
"closing_costs",
"preferred_lender",
"price_reduction"
],
"negotiability_score": 95,
"original_price": 305000,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 298900,
"price_cut": 6100,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: closing-cost concession language, preferred-lender requirement, price reduction.",
"sqft": 1473,
"subdivision": "County View Add",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "1006 College Avenue",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": -42.05,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": -23.03,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "1503 E Calhoun Avenue",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1503-e-calhoun-avenue-temple",
"price": 184900,
"price_per_sqft": 157.23,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1176,
"sqft_delta": 2,
"subdivision": "Highland Terrace Annex Ph I",
"year_built": 1999
},
{
"address": "1607 Ridgeway Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1607-ridgeway-drive-temple",
"price": 214000,
"price_per_sqft": 182.59,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1172,
"sqft_delta": -2,
"subdivision": "Oak Hills Sec Two Ph Tw",
"year_built": 1988
},
{
"address": "1319 N 12th Street",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1319-n-12th-street-temple",
"price": 215000,
"price_per_sqft": 183.45,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1172,
"sqft_delta": -2,
"subdivision": "Patterson Add Ph One",
"year_built": 1996
}
],
"favorable": true,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 1503 E Calhoun Avenue, 1607 Ridgeway Drive, 1319 N 12th Street, this new-construction card is $42/sqft cheaper on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 182.59,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 140.54,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Troy",
"closing_credit": 5000,
"dom": 143,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 140.54,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1412,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 84801,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -21111,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 198,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 140.54,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1439,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 86415,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -19497,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 225,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 140.54,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1456,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 93216,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -12696,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 242,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 140.54,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1375,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 93628,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -12284,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 161,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 140.54,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1468,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 96438,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -9474,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 254,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 140.54,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1214,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 105912,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 140.54,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 357,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 186538,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 80626,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -857,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 5000,
"down_payment": 8250,
"effective_price": 164990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 140.54,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 62,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 296,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1375,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 72179,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 93628,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 156740,
"monthly_mi": 78,
"monthly_pi": 939,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1017,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 30000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 147141
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 5000,
"down_payment": 164990,
"effective_price": 164990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 140.54,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 62,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 296,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 357,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 165090,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 186538,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 30000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 5000,
"down_payment": 32998,
"effective_price": 164990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 140.54,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 62,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 296,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1214,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 84464,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 105912,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 131992,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 856,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 856,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 30000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 123908
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 5000,
"down_payment": 8250,
"effective_price": 164990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 140.54,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 62,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 296,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1468,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 74989,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 96438,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 156740,
"monthly_mi": 78,
"monthly_pi": 1032,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1111,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 30000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 147384
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 5000,
"down_payment": 5775,
"effective_price": 164990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 140.54,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 62,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 296,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1456,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 71767,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 93216,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 162002,
"monthly_mi": 74,
"monthly_pi": 1024,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1098,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 30000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 151651
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 5000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 164990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 140.54,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 62,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 296,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1439,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 64966,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 86415,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 164990,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1081,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1081,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 30000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 155056
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 5000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 164990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 140.54,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 62,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 296,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1412,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 63352,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 84801,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 168537,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1054,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1054,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 30000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 157587
}
}
},
"id": "afde5ba216b1",
"incentive_types": [
"closing_costs",
"exclusive_savings",
"preferred_lender",
"price_reduction"
],
"negotiability_score": 95,
"original_price": 199990,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 169990,
"price_cut": 30000,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: closing-cost concession language, limited incentive language, preferred-lender requirement, price reduction.",
"sqft": 1174,
"subdivision": "College Park",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "4023 Prairie Drive",
"apr": "6.23%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 39.48,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 23.24,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "1924 Hayes Street",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1924-hayes-street-temple",
"price": 345000,
"price_per_sqft": 169.87,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2031,
"sqft_delta": 1,
"subdivision": "Reserve/Pea Rdg Ph 1",
"year_built": 2021
},
{
"address": "166 Mountain Rose Road",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "166-mountain-rose-road-belton",
"price": 425000,
"price_per_sqft": 209.26,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2031,
"sqft_delta": 1,
"subdivision": "High Crest Ph II",
"year_built": 2017
},
{
"address": "1306 N 15th Street",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1306-n-15th-street-temple",
"price": 210000,
"price_per_sqft": 103.55,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-0-500.csv",
"sqft": 2028,
"sqft_delta": -2,
"subdivision": "Fullview",
"year_built": 1935
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 1924 Hayes Street, 166 Mountain Rose Road, 1306 N 15th Street, this new-construction card is $39/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 169.87,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 209.35,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Nolanville",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 108,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 209.35,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3636,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 230928,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -54379,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 510,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 209.35,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3706,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 235086,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -50221,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 580,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 207.26,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3505,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 247005,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -38302,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 379,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 209.35,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3750,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 252603,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -32704,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 624,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 209.35,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3782,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 260902,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -24405,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 656,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 209.35,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3126,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 285307,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 209.35,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 921,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 492988,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 207681,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -2205,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 4250,
"down_payment": 21037,
"effective_price": 420740,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 207.26,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 158,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 754,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3505,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 192309,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 247005,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 399703,
"monthly_mi": 200,
"monthly_pi": 2394,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2594,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 26461,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 375224
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 424990,
"effective_price": 424990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 209.35,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 159,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 761,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 921,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 437740,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 492988,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 26461,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 84998,
"effective_price": 424990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 209.35,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 159,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 761,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3126,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 230059,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 285307,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 339992,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2205,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2205,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 26461,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 319170
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 21250,
"effective_price": 424990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 209.35,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 159,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 761,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3782,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 205654,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 260902,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 403740,
"monthly_mi": 202,
"monthly_pi": 2659,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2861,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 26461,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 379638
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 14875,
"effective_price": 424990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 209.35,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 159,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 761,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3750,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 197354,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 252603,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 417292,
"monthly_mi": 191,
"monthly_pi": 2638,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2829,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 26461,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 390631
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 424990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 209.35,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 159,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 761,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3706,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 179837,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 235086,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 424990,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2785,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2785,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 26461,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 399402
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 424990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 209.35,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 159,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 761,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3636,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 175679,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 230928,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 434127,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2715,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2715,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 26461,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 405920
}
}
},
"id": "7e4a356de77b",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"price_reduction",
"rate_buydown"
],
"negotiability_score": 94,
"original_price": 451451,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 424990,
"price_cut": 26461,
"rate": "2.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, price reduction, rate buydown language.",
"sqft": 2030,
"subdivision": "Bella Charca Phase 12",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "3110 Salt Fork Drive",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": -10.36,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": -6.51,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "1706 Lynx Circle",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1706-lynx-circle-harker-heights",
"price": 255000,
"price_per_sqft": 155.39,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1641,
"sqft_delta": 29,
"subdivision": "Country Trails Add 6th Ph",
"year_built": 1987
},
{
"address": "2006 Longmeadow Road",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "2006-longmeadow-road-harker-heights",
"price": 314900,
"price_per_sqft": 191.31,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1646,
"sqft_delta": 34,
"subdivision": "Whitten Place",
"year_built": 1988
},
{
"address": "903 Cliffside Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "903-cliffside-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 250000,
"price_per_sqft": 159.24,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1570,
"sqft_delta": -42,
"subdivision": "Tanglewood North Second Unit",
"year_built": 1979
}
],
"favorable": true,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 1706 Lynx Circle, 2006 Longmeadow Road, 903 Cliffside Drive, this new-construction card is $10/sqft cheaper on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 159.24,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 148.88,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Victory Homes LLC",
"city": "Killeen",
"closing_credit": 10000,
"dom": 106,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 148.88,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2053,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 123209,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -30710,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 288,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 148.88,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2093,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 125557,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -28362,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 328,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 148.88,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2117,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 135450,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -18469,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 352,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 148.88,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2000,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 136049,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -17870,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 235,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 148.88,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2136,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 140136,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -13783,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 371,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 148.88,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1765,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 153919,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 148.88,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 520,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 271200,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 117281,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1245,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 12000,
"effective_price": 240000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 148.88,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 90,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 430,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2000,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 104849,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 136049,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 228000,
"monthly_mi": 114,
"monthly_pi": 1366,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1480,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 5000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 214037
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 240000,
"effective_price": 240000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 148.88,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 90,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 430,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 520,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 240000,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 271200,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 5000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 48000,
"effective_price": 240000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 148.88,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 90,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 430,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1765,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 122719,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 153919,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 192000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1245,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1245,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 5000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 180241
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 12000,
"effective_price": 240000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 148.88,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 90,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 430,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2136,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 108936,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 140136,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 228000,
"monthly_mi": 114,
"monthly_pi": 1502,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1616,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 5000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 214389
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 8400,
"effective_price": 240000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 148.88,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 90,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 430,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2117,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 104250,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 135450,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 235653,
"monthly_mi": 108,
"monthly_pi": 1489,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1597,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 5000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 220597
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 240000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 148.88,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 90,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 430,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2093,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 94357,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 125557,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 240000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1573,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1573,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 5000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 225550
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 240000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 148.88,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 90,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 430,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2053,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 92009,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 123209,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 245160,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1533,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1533,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 5000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 229231
}
}
},
"id": "aa03a030883f",
"incentive_types": [
"closing_costs",
"price_reduction",
"rate_buydown"
],
"negotiability_score": 93,
"original_price": 255000,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 250000,
"price_cut": 5000,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: closing-cost concession language, price reduction, rate buydown language.",
"sqft": 1612,
"subdivision": "Goodnight Ranch Add",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "8817 Ponderosa Pine Road",
"apr": "5.691%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 33.71,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 25.05,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "2505 Canyon Creek Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "2505-canyon-creek-drive-temple",
"price": 249900,
"price_per_sqft": 134.57,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1857,
"sqft_delta": 3,
"subdivision": "Cliffs Of Canyon Creek Ph I",
"year_built": 1983
},
{
"address": "3811 River Oaks Circle",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "3811-river-oaks-circle-temple",
"price": 237900,
"price_per_sqft": 128.59,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1850,
"sqft_delta": -4,
"subdivision": "The Oaks",
"year_built": 1981
},
{
"address": "5921 Stanford Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "5921-stanford-drive-temple",
"price": 289000,
"price_per_sqft": 156.47,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1847,
"sqft_delta": -7,
"subdivision": "Alta Vista I",
"year_built": 2013
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 2505 Canyon Creek Drive, 3811 River Oaks Circle, 5921 Stanford Drive, this new-construction card is $34/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 134.57,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 168.28,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Temple",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 85,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 168.28,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2669,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 169527,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -39920,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 374,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 168.28,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2720,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 172579,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -36868,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 425,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.6,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2573,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 181329,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -28118,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 278,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 168.28,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2753,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 185439,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -24008,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 458,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 168.28,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2776,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 191531,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -17916,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 481,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 168.28,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2295,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 209447,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 168.28,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 676,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 361908,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 152461,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1619,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 3120,
"down_payment": 15444,
"effective_price": 308870,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.6,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 116,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 553,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2573,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 141176,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 181329,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 293426,
"monthly_mi": 147,
"monthly_pi": 1757,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1904,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 4550,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 275456
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 311990,
"effective_price": 311990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 168.28,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 117,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 559,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 676,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 321350,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 361908,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 4550,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 62398,
"effective_price": 311990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 168.28,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 117,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 559,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2295,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 168889,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 209447,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 249592,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1619,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1619,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 4550,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 234306
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 15600,
"effective_price": 311990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 168.28,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 117,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 559,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2776,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 150973,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 191531,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 296390,
"monthly_mi": 148,
"monthly_pi": 1952,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2100,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 4550,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 278697
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 10920,
"effective_price": 311990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 168.28,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 117,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 559,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2753,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 144880,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 185439,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 306339,
"monthly_mi": 140,
"monthly_pi": 1936,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2077,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 4550,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 286767
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 311990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 168.28,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 117,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 559,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2720,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 132020,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 172579,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 311990,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2044,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2044,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 4550,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 293205
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 311990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 168.28,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 117,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 559,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2669,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 128968,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 169527,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 318698,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1993,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1993,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 4550,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 297991
}
}
},
"id": "9f7ad638f21b",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"preferred_lender",
"price_reduction",
"rate_buydown"
],
"negotiability_score": 91,
"original_price": 316540,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 311990,
"price_cut": 4550,
"rate": "4.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, preferred-lender requirement, price reduction, rate buydown language.",
"sqft": 1854,
"subdivision": "Mesa Ridge",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "7063 Troyan Ln",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 80.83,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 55.71,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "7853 Old Gate Road",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "7853-old-gate-road-temple",
"price": 399900,
"price_per_sqft": 140.81,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2840,
"sqft_delta": 7,
"subdivision": "North Gate",
"year_built": 2016
},
{
"address": "7026 Troyan Lane",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "7026-troyan-lane-temple",
"price": 739900,
"price_per_sqft": 260.44,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2841,
"sqft_delta": 8,
"subdivision": "Landing/Heritage Oaks",
"year_built": 2023
},
{
"address": "4316 Woodstone Circle",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "4316-woodstone-circle-temple",
"price": 412900,
"price_per_sqft": 145.08,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2846,
"sqft_delta": 13,
"subdivision": "Cliffs Of Canyon Creek Ph I",
"year_built": 2007
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 7853 Old Gate Road, 7026 Troyan Lane, 4316 Woodstone Circle, this new-construction card is $81/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 145.08,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 225.91,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "JDG Homes",
"city": "Temple",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 84,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 225.91,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5476,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 347758,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -81891,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 769,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 225.91,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5580,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 354020,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -75629,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 873,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 223.65,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5279,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 371970,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -57679,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 572,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 225.91,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5647,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 380399,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -49250,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 940,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 225.91,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5695,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 392897,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -36752,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 988,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 225.91,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4707,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 429649,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 225.91,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1387,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 742400,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 312751,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -3320,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 6400,
"down_payment": 31680,
"effective_price": 633600,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 223.65,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 238,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1135,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5279,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 289602,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 371970,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 601920,
"monthly_mi": 301,
"monthly_pi": 3605,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3906,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 550,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 565057
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 640000,
"effective_price": 640000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 225.91,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 240,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1147,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1387,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 659200,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 742400,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 550,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 128000,
"effective_price": 640000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 225.91,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 240,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1147,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4707,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 346449,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 429649,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 512000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3321,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3321,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 550,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 480644
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 32000,
"effective_price": 640000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 225.91,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 240,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1147,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5695,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 309697,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 392897,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 608000,
"monthly_mi": 304,
"monthly_pi": 4004,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4308,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 550,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 571704
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 22400,
"effective_price": 640000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 225.91,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 240,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1147,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5647,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 297199,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 380399,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 628408,
"monthly_mi": 288,
"monthly_pi": 3972,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4260,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 550,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 588259
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 640000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 225.91,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 240,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1147,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5580,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 270820,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 354020,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 640000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 4194,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4194,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 550,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 601466
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 640000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 225.91,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 240,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1147,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5476,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 264558,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 347758,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 653760,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 4089,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4089,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 550,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 611282
}
}
},
"id": "1e55c7e4c0ef",
"incentive_types": [
"closing_costs",
"preferred_lender",
"price_reduction",
"rate_buydown"
],
"negotiability_score": 91,
"original_price": 640550,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 640000,
"price_cut": 550,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: closing-cost concession language, preferred-lender requirement, price reduction, rate buydown language.",
"sqft": 2833,
"subdivision": "The Landing at Heritage Oaks",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "5034 Bella Charca Parkway",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 64.58,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 45.36,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "1808 N Beal Street",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1808-n-beal-street-belton",
"price": 299900,
"price_per_sqft": 129.38,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2318,
"sqft_delta": -1,
"subdivision": "Oakdale",
"year_built": 1967
},
{
"address": "4405 Pawnee Trail",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "4405-pawnee-trail-harker-heights",
"price": 330000,
"price_per_sqft": 142.36,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 2318,
"sqft_delta": -1,
"subdivision": "Broken Arrow Lake Estates Sec",
"year_built": 1971
},
{
"address": "203 Sand Flat Lane",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "203-sand-flat-lane-temple",
"price": 499999,
"price_per_sqft": 215.8,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2317,
"sqft_delta": -2,
"subdivision": "North Lake Estates",
"year_built": 2021
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 1808 N Beal Street, 4405 Pawnee Trail, 203 Sand Flat Lane, this new-construction card is $65/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 142.36,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 206.94,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Hodges Eagle Ridge Builders",
"city": "Nolanville",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 159,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 206.94,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4106,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 260764,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -61406,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 576,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 206.94,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4184,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 265459,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -56711,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 654,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 204.87,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3958,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 278919,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -43251,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 428,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 206.94,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4234,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 285240,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -36930,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 704,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 206.94,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4270,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 294612,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -27558,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 740,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 206.94,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3530,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 322170,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 206.94,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1040,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 556684,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 234514,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -2490,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 4799,
"down_payment": 23755,
"effective_price": 475101,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 204.87,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 178,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 851,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3958,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 217156,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 278919,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 451346,
"monthly_mi": 226,
"monthly_pi": 2703,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2929,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 28000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 423704
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 479900,
"effective_price": 479900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 206.94,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 180,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 860,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1040,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 494297,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 556684,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 28000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 95980,
"effective_price": 479900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 206.94,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 180,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 860,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3530,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 259783,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 322170,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 383920,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2490,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2490,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 28000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 360408
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 23995,
"effective_price": 479900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 206.94,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 180,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 860,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4270,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 232225,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 294612,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 455905,
"monthly_mi": 228,
"monthly_pi": 3003,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3231,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 28000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 428689
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 16796,
"effective_price": 479900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 206.94,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 180,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 860,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4234,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 222853,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 285240,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 471208,
"monthly_mi": 216,
"monthly_pi": 2978,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3194,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 28000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 441102
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 479900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 206.94,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 180,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 860,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4184,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 203072,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 265459,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 479900,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3145,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3145,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 28000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 451006
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 479900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 206.94,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 180,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 860,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4106,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 198377,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 260764,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 490218,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3066,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3066,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 28000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 458366
}
}
},
"id": "915d83dc53f2",
"incentive_types": [
"builder_concession",
"closing_costs",
"price_reduction",
"title_policy_survey"
],
"negotiability_score": 90,
"original_price": 507900,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 479900,
"price_cut": 28000,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: builder concession language, closing-cost concession language, price reduction, title policy or survey language.",
"sqft": 2319,
"subdivision": "BELLA CHARCA PHASE IX",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "3722 Oglala Trail",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 45.75,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 35.81,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "1211 S 17th Street",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "1211-s-17th-street-temple",
"price": 215000,
"price_per_sqft": 127.75,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-14-2026-mls-templebelton.csv",
"sqft": 1683,
"sqft_delta": 0,
"subdivision": "Tal-Coe Place",
"year_built": 1949
},
{
"address": "1415 S 9th Street",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "1415-s-9th-street-temple",
"price": 165000,
"price_per_sqft": 98.1,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1682,
"sqft_delta": -1,
"subdivision": "Rowena",
"year_built": 1950
},
{
"address": "1214 Daffodil Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "1214-daffodil-drive-temple",
"price": 259000,
"price_per_sqft": 153.98,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1682,
"sqft_delta": -1,
"subdivision": "Lake Pointe Ph Ii-A1",
"year_built": 2018
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 1211 S 17th Street, 1415 S 9th Street, 1214 Daffodil Drive, this new-construction card is $46/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 127.75,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 173.5,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": null,
"city": "Temple",
"closing_credit": 12500,
"dom": 315,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 173.5,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2498,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 149905,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -37363,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 350,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 173.5,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2546,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 152761,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -34507,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 398,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 173.5,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2576,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 164797,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -22471,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 428,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 173.5,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2433,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 165526,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -21742,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 285,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 173.5,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2598,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 170499,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -16769,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 450,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 173.5,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2148,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 187268,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 173.5,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 633,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 329960,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 142692,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1515,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 12500,
"down_payment": 14600,
"effective_price": 292000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 173.5,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 110,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 523,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2433,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 127566,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 165526,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 277400,
"monthly_mi": 139,
"monthly_pi": 1661,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1800,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 100,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 260411
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 12500,
"down_payment": 292000,
"effective_price": 292000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 173.5,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 110,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 523,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 633,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 292000,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 329960,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 100,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 12500,
"down_payment": 58400,
"effective_price": 292000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 173.5,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 110,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 523,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2148,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 149308,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 187268,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 233600,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1515,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1515,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 100,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 219294
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 12500,
"down_payment": 14600,
"effective_price": 292000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 173.5,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 110,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 523,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2598,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 132539,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 170499,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 277400,
"monthly_mi": 139,
"monthly_pi": 1827,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1966,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 100,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 260840
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 12500,
"down_payment": 10220,
"effective_price": 292000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 173.5,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 110,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 523,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2576,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 126837,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 164797,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 286711,
"monthly_mi": 131,
"monthly_pi": 1812,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1944,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 100,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 268393
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 12500,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 292000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 173.5,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 110,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 523,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2546,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 114801,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 152761,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 292000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1913,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1913,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 100,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 274419
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 12500,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 292000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 173.5,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 110,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 523,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2498,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 111945,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 149905,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 298278,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1866,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1866,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 100,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 278898
}
}
},
"id": "33f799125c96",
"incentive_types": [
"builder_concession",
"closing_costs",
"price_reduction"
],
"negotiability_score": 90,
"original_price": 304600,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 304500,
"price_cut": 100,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: builder concession language, closing-cost concession language, price reduction.",
"sqft": 1683,
"subdivision": "Prairie Rdg Ph III",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "6018 Parma Lane",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 47.76,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 36.03,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "5153 Goliad Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "5153-goliad-drive-temple",
"price": 250000,
"price_per_sqft": 132.56,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1886,
"sqft_delta": 1,
"subdivision": "Tanglewood",
"year_built": 1993
},
{
"address": "2503 Emerald Dove Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "2503-emerald-dove-drive-temple",
"price": 295000,
"price_per_sqft": 156.33,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1887,
"sqft_delta": 2,
"subdivision": "The Plains At Riverside Ph",
"year_built": 2019
},
{
"address": "1315 S 51st Street",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "1315-s-51st-street-temple",
"price": 199000,
"price_per_sqft": 105.24,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1891,
"sqft_delta": 6,
"subdivision": "Temple Heights",
"year_built": 1950
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 5153 Goliad Drive, 2503 Emerald Dove Drive, 1315 S 51st Street, this new-construction card is $48/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 132.56,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 180.32,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Hodges Eagle Ridge Builders",
"city": "Temple",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 280,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 180.32,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2908,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 184692,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -43492,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 408,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 180.32,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2964,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 188018,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -40166,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 464,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 178.52,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2803,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 197551,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -30633,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 303,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 180.32,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2999,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 202028,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -26156,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 499,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 180.32,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3025,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 208665,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -19519,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 525,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 180.32,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2500,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 228184,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 180.32,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 736,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 394284,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 166100,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1764,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 3399,
"down_payment": 16825,
"effective_price": 336501,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 178.52,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 126,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 603,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2803,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 153806,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 197551,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 319676,
"monthly_mi": 160,
"monthly_pi": 1915,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2074,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 33000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 300098
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 339900,
"effective_price": 339900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 180.32,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 127,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 609,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 736,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 350097,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 394284,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 33000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 67980,
"effective_price": 339900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 180.32,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 127,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 609,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2500,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 183997,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 228184,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 271920,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1764,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1764,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 33000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 255267
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 16995,
"effective_price": 339900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 180.32,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 127,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 609,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3025,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 164478,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 208665,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 322905,
"monthly_mi": 161,
"monthly_pi": 2127,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2288,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 33000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 303629
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 11897,
"effective_price": 339900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 180.32,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 127,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 609,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2999,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 157841,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 202028,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 333744,
"monthly_mi": 153,
"monthly_pi": 2109,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2262,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 33000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 312421
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 339900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 180.32,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 127,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 609,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2964,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 143831,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 188018,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 339900,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2227,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2227,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 33000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 319435
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 339900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 180.32,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 127,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 609,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2908,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 140505,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 184692,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 347208,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2172,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2172,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 33000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 324648
}
}
},
"id": "c44a3e7d741a",
"incentive_types": [
"builder_concession",
"closing_costs",
"price_reduction",
"title_policy_survey"
],
"negotiability_score": 90,
"original_price": 372900,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 339900,
"price_cut": 33000,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: builder concession language, closing-cost concession language, price reduction, title policy or survey language.",
"sqft": 1885,
"subdivision": "BELLA TERRA PHASE II",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "5821 Whippoorwill Road",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 64.6,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 40.82,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "3606 Whispering Oaks",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "3606-whispering-oaks-temple",
"price": 399900,
"price_per_sqft": 160.41,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2493,
"sqft_delta": 12,
"subdivision": "Woodbridge Creek Ph II",
"year_built": 1987
},
{
"address": "2413 Brooklawn Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "2413-brooklawn-drive-temple",
"price": 379900,
"price_per_sqft": 152.26,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2495,
"sqft_delta": 14,
"subdivision": "Elmwood",
"year_built": 1956
},
{
"address": "3807 Whispering Oaks",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "3807-whispering-oaks-temple",
"price": 395000,
"price_per_sqft": 158.25,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2496,
"sqft_delta": 15,
"subdivision": "Woodbridge Creek Ph III",
"year_built": 2000
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 3606 Whispering Oaks, 2413 Brooklawn Drive, 3807 Whispering Oaks, this new-construction card is $65/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 158.25,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 222.85,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Hodges Eagle Ridge Builders",
"city": "Temple",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 210,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 222.85,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4731,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 300431,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -70746,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 664,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 222.85,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4821,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 305840,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -65337,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 754,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 220.63,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4560,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 321347,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -49830,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 493,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 222.85,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4878,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 328629,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -42548,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 811,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 222.85,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4920,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 339426,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -31751,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 853,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 222.85,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4067,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 371177,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 222.85,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1198,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 641364,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 270187,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -2869,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 5529,
"down_payment": 27369,
"effective_price": 547371,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 220.63,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 205,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 981,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4560,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 250189,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 321347,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 520002,
"monthly_mi": 260,
"monthly_pi": 3114,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3374,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 21000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 488156
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 552900,
"effective_price": 552900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 222.85,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 207,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 991,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1198,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 569487,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 641364,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 21000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 110580,
"effective_price": 552900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 222.85,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 207,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 991,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4067,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 299300,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 371177,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 442320,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2869,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2869,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 21000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 415231
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 27645,
"effective_price": 552900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 222.85,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 207,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 991,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4920,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 267549,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 339426,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 525255,
"monthly_mi": 263,
"monthly_pi": 3459,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3722,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 21000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 493899
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 19352,
"effective_price": 552900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 222.85,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 207,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 991,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4878,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 256752,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 328629,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 542886,
"monthly_mi": 249,
"monthly_pi": 3431,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3680,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 21000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 508201
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 552900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 222.85,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 207,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 991,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4821,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 233963,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 305840,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 552900,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3623,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3623,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 21000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 519611
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 552900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 222.85,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 207,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 991,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4731,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 228554,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 300431,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 564787,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3533,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3533,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 21000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 528091
}
}
},
"id": "d2025f67ea4e",
"incentive_types": [
"builder_concession",
"closing_costs",
"price_reduction",
"title_policy_survey"
],
"negotiability_score": 90,
"original_price": 573900,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 552900,
"price_cut": 21000,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: builder concession language, closing-cost concession language, price reduction, title policy or survey language.",
"sqft": 2481,
"subdivision": "HARTRICK CROSSING",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "5909 Whippoorwill Road",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": -24.75,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": -11.19,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "5304 Sunflower Lane",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "5304-sunflower-lane-temple",
"price": 690000,
"price_per_sqft": 225.71,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 3057,
"sqft_delta": 1,
"subdivision": "Wildflower Country Club Ph",
"year_built": 2014
},
{
"address": "705 Haymarket Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "705-haymarket-drive-temple",
"price": 675000,
"price_per_sqft": 221.09,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 3053,
"sqft_delta": -3,
"subdivision": "Hartrick Valley Estates",
"year_built": 2018
},
{
"address": "4012 Creekview Trail",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "4012-creekview-trail-temple",
"price": 424900,
"price_per_sqft": 139.54,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 3045,
"sqft_delta": -11,
"subdivision": "WOODBRIDGE CREEK PHASE III",
"year_built": 2004
}
],
"favorable": true,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 5304 Sunflower Lane, 705 Haymarket Drive, 4012 Creekview Trail, this new-construction card is $25/sqft cheaper on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 221.09,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 196.34,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Hodges Eagle Ridge Builders",
"city": "Temple",
"closing_credit": 20000,
"dom": 123,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 196.34,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5134,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 308024,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -76772,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 721,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 196.34,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5232,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 313893,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -70903,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 819,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 196.34,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5294,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 338624,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -46172,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 881,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 196.34,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4999,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 340123,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -44673,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 586,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 196.34,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5339,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 350341,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -34455,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 926,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 196.34,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4413,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 384796,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 196.34,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1300,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 678000,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 293204,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -3113,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 20000,
"down_payment": 30000,
"effective_price": 600000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 196.34,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 225,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1075,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4999,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 262123,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 340123,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 570000,
"monthly_mi": 285,
"monthly_pi": 3414,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3699,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 79900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 535092
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 20000,
"down_payment": 600000,
"effective_price": 600000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 196.34,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 225,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1075,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1300,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 600000,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 678000,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 79900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 20000,
"down_payment": 120000,
"effective_price": 600000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 196.34,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 225,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1075,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4413,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 306796,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 384796,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 480000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3113,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3113,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 79900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 450603
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 20000,
"down_payment": 30000,
"effective_price": 600000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 196.34,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 225,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1075,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5339,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 272341,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 350341,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 570000,
"monthly_mi": 285,
"monthly_pi": 3754,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4039,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 79900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 535973
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 20000,
"down_payment": 21000,
"effective_price": 600000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 196.34,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 225,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1075,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5294,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 260624,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 338624,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 589132,
"monthly_mi": 270,
"monthly_pi": 3724,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3994,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 79900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 551493
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 20000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 600000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 196.34,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 225,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1075,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5232,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 235893,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 313893,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 600000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3932,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3932,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 79900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 563875
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 20000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 600000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 196.34,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 225,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1075,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5134,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 230024,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 308024,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 612900,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3834,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3834,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 79900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 573077
}
}
},
"id": "fedae2a82148",
"incentive_types": [
"builder_concession",
"closing_costs",
"price_reduction",
"title_policy_survey"
],
"negotiability_score": 90,
"original_price": 699900,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 620000,
"price_cut": 79900,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: builder concession language, closing-cost concession language, price reduction, title policy or survey language.",
"sqft": 3056,
"subdivision": "HARTRICK CROSSING",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "7203 Castlerock Drive",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 118.94,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 104.59,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "8221 Sage Meadow Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "8221-sage-meadow-drive-temple",
"price": 299900,
"price_per_sqft": 111.24,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-14-2026-mls-templebelton.csv",
"sqft": 2696,
"sqft_delta": -12,
"subdivision": "Sage Meadows Ph II",
"year_built": 2004
},
{
"address": "4109 Dove Lane",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "4109-dove-lane-temple",
"price": 310000,
"price_per_sqft": 113.72,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2726,
"sqft_delta": 18,
"subdivision": "Ramblewood 2nd Unit",
"year_built": 1971
},
{
"address": "615 W Royal Avenue",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "615-w-royal-avenue-temple",
"price": 449550,
"price_per_sqft": 164.91,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2726,
"sqft_delta": 18,
"subdivision": "E E Nettles Add",
"year_built": 1950
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 8221 Sage Meadow Drive, 4109 Dove Lane, 615 W Royal Avenue, this new-construction card is $119/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 113.72,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 232.66,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Hodges Eagle Ridge Builders",
"city": "Temple",
"closing_credit": 20000,
"dom": 215,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 232.66,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5391,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 323450,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -80618,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 757,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 232.66,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5494,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 329614,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -74454,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 860,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 232.66,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5559,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 355584,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -48484,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 925,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 232.66,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5249,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 357157,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -46911,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 615,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 232.66,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5606,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 367888,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -36180,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 972,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 232.66,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4634,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 404068,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 232.66,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1365,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 711956,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 307888,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -3269,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 20000,
"down_payment": 31502,
"effective_price": 630050,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 232.66,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 236,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1129,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5249,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 275251,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 357157,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 598548,
"monthly_mi": 299,
"monthly_pi": 3585,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3884,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 39850,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 561891
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 20000,
"down_payment": 630050,
"effective_price": 630050,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 232.66,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 236,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1129,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1365,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 630050,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 711956,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 39850,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 20000,
"down_payment": 126010,
"effective_price": 630050,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 232.66,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 236,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1129,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4634,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 322162,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 404068,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 504040,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3269,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3269,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 39850,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 473171
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 20000,
"down_payment": 31502,
"effective_price": 630050,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 232.66,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 236,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1129,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5606,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 285981,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 367888,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 598548,
"monthly_mi": 299,
"monthly_pi": 3942,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4241,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 39850,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 562816
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 20000,
"down_payment": 22052,
"effective_price": 630050,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 232.66,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 236,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1129,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5559,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 273677,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 355584,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 618638,
"monthly_mi": 284,
"monthly_pi": 3910,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4194,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 39850,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 579113
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 20000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 630050,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 232.66,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 236,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1129,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5494,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 247708,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 329614,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 630050,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 4128,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4128,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 39850,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 592115
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 20000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 630050,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 232.66,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 236,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1129,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5391,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 241544,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 323450,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 643596,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 4026,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4026,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 39850,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 601779
}
}
},
"id": "30e153550f43",
"incentive_types": [
"builder_concession",
"closing_costs",
"price_reduction",
"title_policy_survey"
],
"negotiability_score": 90,
"original_price": 689900,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 650050,
"price_cut": 39850,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: builder concession language, closing-cost concession language, price reduction, title policy or survey language.",
"sqft": 2708,
"subdivision": "Fryers Bend",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "2210 Iron Branch Road",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 57.63,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 33.94,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "4306 Hickory Road",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "4306-hickory-road-temple",
"price": 449000,
"price_per_sqft": 151.28,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2968,
"sqft_delta": 0,
"subdivision": "Willow Ridge Sub Ph",
"year_built": 1982
},
{
"address": "1220 Larkspur Lane",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "1220-larkspur-lane-temple",
"price": 550000,
"price_per_sqft": 186.13,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2955,
"sqft_delta": -13,
"subdivision": "Wildflower Country Club",
"year_built": 2008
},
{
"address": "909 Paint Brush Lane",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "909-paint-brush-lane-temple",
"price": 499900,
"price_per_sqft": 169.8,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2944,
"sqft_delta": -24,
"subdivision": "Wildflower Country Club Pt T",
"year_built": 1995
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 4306 Hickory Road, 1220 Larkspur Lane, 909 Paint Brush Lane, this new-construction card is $58/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 169.8,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 227.43,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Hodges Eagle Ridge Builders",
"city": "Temple",
"closing_credit": 20000,
"dom": 129,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 227.43,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5775,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 347376,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -86370,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 810,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 227.43,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5885,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 353980,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -79766,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 920,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 227.43,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5955,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 381802,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -51944,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 990,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 227.43,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5624,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 383488,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -50258,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 659,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 227.43,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6006,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 394984,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -38762,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 1041,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 227.43,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4965,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 433746,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 227.43,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1462,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 763600,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 329854,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -3503,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 20000,
"down_payment": 33750,
"effective_price": 675000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 227.43,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 253,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1209,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5624,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 295738,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 383488,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 641250,
"monthly_mi": 321,
"monthly_pi": 3840,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4161,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 34900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 601978
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 20000,
"down_payment": 675000,
"effective_price": 675000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 227.43,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 253,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1209,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1462,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 675850,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 763600,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 34900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 20000,
"down_payment": 135000,
"effective_price": 675000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 227.43,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 253,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1209,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4965,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 345996,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 433746,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 540000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3502,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3502,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 34900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 506929
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 20000,
"down_payment": 33750,
"effective_price": 675000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 227.43,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 253,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1209,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6006,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 307234,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 394984,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 641250,
"monthly_mi": 321,
"monthly_pi": 4223,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4544,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 34900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 602969
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 20000,
"down_payment": 23625,
"effective_price": 675000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 227.43,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 253,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1209,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5955,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 294052,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 381802,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 662774,
"monthly_mi": 304,
"monthly_pi": 4189,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4493,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 34900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 620429
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 20000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 675000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 227.43,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 253,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1209,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5885,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 266230,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 353980,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 675000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 4423,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4423,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 34900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 634359
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 20000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 675000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 227.43,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 253,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1209,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5775,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 259626,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 347376,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 689512,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 4313,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4313,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 34900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 644712
}
}
},
"id": "1958a1728c4b",
"incentive_types": [
"builder_concession",
"closing_costs",
"price_reduction",
"title_policy_survey"
],
"negotiability_score": 90,
"original_price": 729900,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 695000,
"price_cut": 34900,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: builder concession language, closing-cost concession language, price reduction, title policy or survey language.",
"sqft": 2968,
"subdivision": "Fryers Bend",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "2119 Iron Branch Road",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 97.36,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 75.92,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "3501 Oak Villa Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "3501-oak-villa-drive-temple",
"price": 415000,
"price_per_sqft": 128.24,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 3236,
"sqft_delta": 9,
"subdivision": "Oak Villa Add",
"year_built": 1982
},
{
"address": "6710 Naples Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "6710-naples-drive-temple",
"price": 798000,
"price_per_sqft": 249.45,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-14-2026-mls-templebelton.csv",
"sqft": 3199,
"sqft_delta": -28,
"subdivision": "Residences At Dantonis Cross",
"year_built": 2016
},
{
"address": "315 Chapel Knoll Road",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "315-chapel-knoll-road-temple",
"price": 378000,
"price_per_sqft": 115.81,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-14-2026-mls-templebelton.csv",
"sqft": 3264,
"sqft_delta": 37,
"subdivision": "Lake Pointe Terrace Ph III",
"year_built": 2022
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 3501 Oak Villa Drive, 6710 Naples Drive, 315 Chapel Knoll Road, this new-construction card is $97/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 128.24,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 225.6,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Hodges Eagle Ridge Builders",
"city": "Temple",
"closing_credit": 20000,
"dom": 197,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 225.6,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6229,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 376175,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -93151,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 874,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 225.6,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6348,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 383297,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -86029,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 993,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 225.6,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6423,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 413304,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -56022,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 1068,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 225.6,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6065,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 415122,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -54204,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 710,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 225.6,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6478,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 427521,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -41805,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 1123,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 225.6,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5355,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 469326,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 225.6,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1577,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 825080,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 355754,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -3778,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 20000,
"down_payment": 36400,
"effective_price": 728000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 225.6,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 273,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1304,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6065,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 320482,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 415122,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 691600,
"monthly_mi": 346,
"monthly_pi": 4142,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4488,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 34900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 649244
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 20000,
"down_payment": 728000,
"effective_price": 728000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 225.6,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 273,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1304,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1577,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 730440,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 825080,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 34900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 20000,
"down_payment": 145600,
"effective_price": 728000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 225.6,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 273,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1304,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5355,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 374686,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 469326,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 582400,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3777,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3777,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 34900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 546732
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 20000,
"down_payment": 36400,
"effective_price": 728000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 225.6,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 273,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1304,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6478,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 332881,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 427521,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 691600,
"monthly_mi": 346,
"monthly_pi": 4555,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4901,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 34900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 650313
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 20000,
"down_payment": 25480,
"effective_price": 728000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 225.6,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 273,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1304,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6423,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 318664,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 413304,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 714814,
"monthly_mi": 328,
"monthly_pi": 4518,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4846,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 34900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 669144
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 20000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 728000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 225.6,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 273,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1304,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6348,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 288657,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 383297,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 728000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 4770,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4770,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 34900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 684168
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 20000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 728000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 225.6,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 273,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1304,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6229,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 281535,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 376175,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 743652,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 4652,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4652,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 34900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 695334
}
}
},
"id": "c5fdfe0103f2",
"incentive_types": [
"builder_concession",
"closing_costs",
"price_reduction",
"title_policy_survey"
],
"negotiability_score": 90,
"original_price": 782900,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 748000,
"price_cut": 34900,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: builder concession language, closing-cost concession language, price reduction, title policy or survey language.",
"sqft": 3227,
"subdivision": "Fryers Bend",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "2013 Stillwell Street",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": -6.4,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": -3.79,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "1602 S 13th Street",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1602-s-13th-street-temple",
"price": 309900,
"price_per_sqft": 137.86,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-14-2026-mls-templebelton.csv",
"sqft": 2248,
"sqft_delta": -1,
"subdivision": "South Park",
"year_built": 1952
},
{
"address": "3428 Waggoner Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "3428-waggoner-drive-belton",
"price": 469000,
"price_per_sqft": 208.72,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2247,
"sqft_delta": -2,
"subdivision": "Dawson Ridge Add",
"year_built": 2021
},
{
"address": "6111 Parma Lane",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "6111-parma-lane-temple",
"price": 379900,
"price_per_sqft": 168.69,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2252,
"sqft_delta": 3,
"subdivision": "Bella Terra Ph II",
"year_built": 2022
}
],
"favorable": true,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 1602 S 13th Street, 3428 Waggoner Drive, 6111 Parma Lane, this new-construction card is $6/sqft cheaper on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 168.69,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 162.29,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": null,
"city": "Nolanville",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 176,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 162.29,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3123,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 198331,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -46703,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 438,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 162.29,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3183,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 201902,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -43132,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 498,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 160.67,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3011,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 212139,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -32895,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 326,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 162.29,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3220,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 216946,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -28088,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 535,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 162.29,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3248,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 224074,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -20960,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 563,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 162.29,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2685,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 245034,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 162.29,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 791,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 423400,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 178366,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1894,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 3650,
"down_payment": 18068,
"effective_price": 361350,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 160.67,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 136,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 647,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3011,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 165164,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 212139,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 343282,
"monthly_mi": 172,
"monthly_pi": 2056,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2228,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 322259
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 365000,
"effective_price": 365000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 162.29,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 137,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 654,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 791,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 375950,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 423400,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 73000,
"effective_price": 365000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 162.29,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 137,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 654,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2685,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 197584,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 245034,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 292000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1894,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1894,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 274117
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 18250,
"effective_price": 365000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 162.29,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 137,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 654,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3248,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 176624,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 224074,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 346750,
"monthly_mi": 173,
"monthly_pi": 2284,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2457,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 326050
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 12775,
"effective_price": 365000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 162.29,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 137,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 654,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3220,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 169496,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 216946,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 358389,
"monthly_mi": 164,
"monthly_pi": 2265,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2430,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 335491
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 365000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 162.29,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 137,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 654,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3183,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 154452,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 201902,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 365000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2392,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2392,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 343024
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 365000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 162.29,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 137,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 654,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3123,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 150881,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 198331,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 372848,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2332,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2332,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 348622
}
}
},
"id": "ab77a8b6b52f",
"incentive_types": [
"closing_costs",
"preferred_lender",
"rate_buydown"
],
"negotiability_score": 88,
"original_price": 365000,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 365000,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: closing-cost concession language, preferred-lender requirement, rate buydown language.",
"sqft": 2249,
"subdivision": "Warriors Legacy Ph 2-B",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "4034 Prairie Drive",
"apr": "5.775%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 51.71,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 30.44,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "1924 Hayes Street",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1924-hayes-street-temple",
"price": 345000,
"price_per_sqft": 169.87,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2031,
"sqft_delta": 1,
"subdivision": "Reserve/Pea Rdg Ph 1",
"year_built": 2021
},
{
"address": "166 Mountain Rose Road",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "166-mountain-rose-road-belton",
"price": 425000,
"price_per_sqft": 209.26,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2031,
"sqft_delta": 1,
"subdivision": "High Crest Ph II",
"year_built": 2017
},
{
"address": "1306 N 15th Street",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1306-n-15th-street-temple",
"price": 210000,
"price_per_sqft": 103.55,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-0-500.csv",
"sqft": 2028,
"sqft_delta": -2,
"subdivision": "Fullview",
"year_built": 1935
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 1924 Hayes Street, 166 Mountain Rose Road, 1306 N 15th Street, this new-construction card is $52/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 169.87,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 221.58,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Nolanville",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 140,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 221.58,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3849,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 244413,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -57555,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 540,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 221.58,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3922,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 248813,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -53155,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 613,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 219.36,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3710,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 261429,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -40539,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 401,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 221.58,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3969,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 267353,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -34615,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 660,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 221.58,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4003,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 276137,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -25831,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 694,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 221.58,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3309,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 301968,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 221.58,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 975,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 521776,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 219808,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -2334,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 4498,
"down_payment": 22265,
"effective_price": 445309,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 219.36,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 167,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 798,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3710,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 203539,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 261429,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 423044,
"monthly_mi": 212,
"monthly_pi": 2534,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2745,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 397135
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 449807,
"effective_price": 449807,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 221.58,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 169,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 806,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 975,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 463301,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 521776,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 89961,
"effective_price": 449807,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 221.58,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 169,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 806,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3309,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 243493,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 301968,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 359846,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2334,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2334,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 337808
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 22490,
"effective_price": 449807,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 221.58,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 169,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 806,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4003,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 217663,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 276137,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 427317,
"monthly_mi": 214,
"monthly_pi": 2814,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3028,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 401807
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 15743,
"effective_price": 449807,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 221.58,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 169,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 806,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3969,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 208879,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 267353,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 441660,
"monthly_mi": 202,
"monthly_pi": 2792,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2994,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 413442
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 449807,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 221.58,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 169,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 806,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3922,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 190338,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 248813,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 449807,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2947,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2947,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 422725
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 449807,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 221.58,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 169,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 806,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3849,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 185938,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 244413,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 459478,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2874,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2874,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 429624
}
}
},
"id": "eb9abc15edc9",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"preferred_lender"
],
"negotiability_score": 88,
"original_price": 445732,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 449807,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": "4.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, preferred-lender requirement.",
"sqft": 2030,
"subdivision": "Bella Charca Phase 12",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "8913 Ponderosa Pine Road",
"apr": "6.23%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 15.18,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 8.92,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "2001 S 9th Street",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "2001-s-9th-street-temple",
"price": 146000,
"price_per_sqft": 99.39,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-14-2026-mls-templebelton.csv",
"sqft": 1469,
"sqft_delta": 0,
"subdivision": "Hollywood Add",
"year_built": 1952
},
{
"address": "828 Starlight Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "828-starlight-drive-temple",
"price": 249828,
"price_per_sqft": 170.18,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-14-2026-mls-templebelton.csv",
"sqft": 1468,
"sqft_delta": -1,
"subdivision": "Windmill Farms Ph II",
"year_built": 2011
},
{
"address": "5918 Blackstone Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "5918-blackstone-drive-temple",
"price": 279000,
"price_per_sqft": 189.8,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1470,
"sqft_delta": 1,
"subdivision": "Wyndham Hill Additio",
"year_built": 2018
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 2001 S 9th Street, 828 Starlight Drive, 5918 Blackstone Drive, this new-construction card is $15/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 170.18,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 185.36,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Temple",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 175,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.36,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2330,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 147955,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -34841,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 327,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.36,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2374,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 150619,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -32177,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 371,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 183.5,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2246,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 158256,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -24540,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 243,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.36,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2402,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 161842,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -20954,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 399,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.36,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2423,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 167159,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -15637,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 420,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.36,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2003,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 182796,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.36,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 590,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 315856,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 133060,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1413,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 2723,
"down_payment": 13478,
"effective_price": 269567,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 183.5,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 101,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 483,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2246,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 123212,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 158256,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 256089,
"monthly_mi": 128,
"monthly_pi": 1534,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1662,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 240405
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 272290,
"effective_price": 272290,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.36,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 102,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 488,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 590,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 280459,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 315856,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 54458,
"effective_price": 272290,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.36,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 102,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 488,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2003,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 147398,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 182796,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 217832,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1413,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1413,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 204491
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 13614,
"effective_price": 272290,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.36,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 102,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 488,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2423,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 131762,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 167159,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 258676,
"monthly_mi": 129,
"monthly_pi": 1704,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1833,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 243233
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 9530,
"effective_price": 272290,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.36,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 102,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 488,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2402,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 126444,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 161842,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 267358,
"monthly_mi": 123,
"monthly_pi": 1690,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1812,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 250277
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 272290,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.36,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 102,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 488,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2374,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 115221,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 150619,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 272290,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1784,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1784,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 255896
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 272290,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.36,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 102,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 488,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2330,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 112557,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 147955,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 278144,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1740,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1740,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 260072
}
}
},
"id": "843a5f755180",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"preferred_lender",
"rate_buydown"
],
"negotiability_score": 88,
"original_price": 272290,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 272290,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": "4.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, preferred-lender requirement, rate buydown language.",
"sqft": 1469,
"subdivision": "Mesa Ridge",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "3206 Privet Drive",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": -0.63,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": -0.42,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "416 Canoe Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "416-canoe-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 270000,
"price_per_sqft": 150.92,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1789,
"sqft_delta": 5,
"subdivision": "Skipcha Mountain Estates Ph",
"year_built": 2004
},
{
"address": "922 Ashwood Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "922-ashwood-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 179000,
"price_per_sqft": 99.89,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1792,
"sqft_delta": 8,
"subdivision": "Wildewood Acres",
"year_built": 2000
},
{
"address": "1126 Mossy Oak Circle",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1126-mossy-oak-circle-harker-heights",
"price": 285000,
"price_per_sqft": 158.69,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1796,
"sqft_delta": 12,
"subdivision": "Enchanted Oaks 1st",
"year_built": 1975
}
],
"favorable": true,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 416 Canoe Drive, 922 Ashwood Drive, 1126 Mossy Oak Circle, this new-construction card is $1/sqft cheaper on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 150.92,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 150.29,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": null,
"city": "Killeen",
"closing_credit": 16000,
"dom": 117,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 150.29,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2294,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 137643,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -34306,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 322,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 150.29,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2338,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 140266,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -31683,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 366,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 150.29,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2366,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 151317,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -20632,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 394,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 150.29,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2234,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 151987,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -19962,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 262,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 150.29,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2386,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 156553,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -15396,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 414,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 150.29,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1972,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 171949,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 150.29,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 581,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 302970,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 131021,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1391,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 16000,
"down_payment": 13406,
"effective_price": 268115,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 150.29,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 101,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 480,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2234,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 117132,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 151987,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 254709,
"monthly_mi": 127,
"monthly_pi": 1525,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1653,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 239110
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 16000,
"down_payment": 268115,
"effective_price": 268115,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 150.29,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 101,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 480,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 581,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 268115,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 302970,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 16000,
"down_payment": 53623,
"effective_price": 268115,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 150.29,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 101,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 480,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1972,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 137094,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 171949,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 214492,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1391,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1391,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 201356
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 16000,
"down_payment": 13406,
"effective_price": 268115,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 150.29,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 101,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 480,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2386,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 121698,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 156553,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 254709,
"monthly_mi": 127,
"monthly_pi": 1678,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1805,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 239504
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 16000,
"down_payment": 9384,
"effective_price": 268115,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 150.29,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 101,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 480,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2366,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 116462,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 151317,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 263259,
"monthly_mi": 121,
"monthly_pi": 1664,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1785,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 246439
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 16000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 268115,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 150.29,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 101,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 480,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2338,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 105411,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 140266,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 268115,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1757,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1757,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 251972
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 16000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 268115,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 150.29,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 101,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 480,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2294,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 102788,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 137643,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 273879,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1713,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1713,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 256084
}
}
},
"id": "94797240b951",
"incentive_types": [
"builder_concession",
"closing_costs",
"preferred_lender",
"rate_buydown"
],
"negotiability_score": 87,
"original_price": 279815,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 284115,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: builder concession language, closing-cost concession language, preferred-lender requirement, rate buydown language.",
"sqft": 1784,
"subdivision": "Goodnight Ranch",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "15987 Charlya Drive",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 71.29,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 53.83,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "1203 Iron Glen Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "1203-iron-glen-drive-temple",
"price": 285000,
"price_per_sqft": 132.43,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2152,
"sqft_delta": 2,
"subdivision": "Lake Pointe Ph III",
"year_built": 2018
},
{
"address": "120 Metheglin Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "120-metheglin-drive-temple",
"price": 549900,
"price_per_sqft": 255.41,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2153,
"sqft_delta": 3,
"subdivision": "North Lake Estates",
"year_built": 2020
},
{
"address": "5707 AMBROSE CR Circle",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "5707-ambrose-cr-circle-temple",
"price": 267999,
"price_per_sqft": 125.06,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2143,
"sqft_delta": -7,
"subdivision": "Alta Vista II",
"year_built": 2017
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 1203 Iron Glen Drive, 120 Metheglin Drive, 5707 AMBROSE CR Circle, this new-construction card is $71/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 132.43,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 203.72,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Lion House Construct",
"city": "Temple",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 215,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 203.72,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3748,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 237997,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -56044,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 526,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 203.72,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3819,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 242282,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -51759,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 597,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 201.68,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3613,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 254567,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -39474,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 391,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 203.72,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3864,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 260336,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -33705,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 642,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 203.72,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3897,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 268889,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -25152,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 675,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 203.72,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3222,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 294041,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 203.72,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 949,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 508080,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 214039,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -2273,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 4380,
"down_payment": 21681,
"effective_price": 433620,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 201.68,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 163,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 777,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3613,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 198196,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 254567,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 411939,
"monthly_mi": 206,
"monthly_pi": 2467,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2673,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 47000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 386711
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 438000,
"effective_price": 438000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 203.72,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 164,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 785,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 949,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 451140,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 508080,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 47000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 87600,
"effective_price": 438000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 203.72,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 164,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 785,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3222,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 237101,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 294041,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 350400,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2273,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2273,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 47000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 328940
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 21900,
"effective_price": 438000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 203.72,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 164,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 785,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3897,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 211949,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 268889,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 416100,
"monthly_mi": 208,
"monthly_pi": 2740,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2948,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 47000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 391260
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 15330,
"effective_price": 438000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 203.72,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 164,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 785,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3864,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 203396,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 260336,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 430067,
"monthly_mi": 197,
"monthly_pi": 2718,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2915,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 47000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 402590
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 438000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 203.72,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 164,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 785,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3819,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 185342,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 242282,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 438000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2870,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2870,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 47000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 411629
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 438000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 203.72,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 164,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 785,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3748,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 181057,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 237997,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 447417,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2799,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2799,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 47000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 418346
}
}
},
"id": "da0dbab8f72a",
"incentive_types": [
"fixed_rate",
"price_reduction"
],
"negotiability_score": 87,
"original_price": 485000,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 438000,
"price_cut": 47000,
"rate": "4.875%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: fixed-rate incentive, price reduction.",
"sqft": 2150,
"subdivision": "Tanglewood",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "1719 Bear Grass Ridge Road",
"apr": "6.23%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 29.93,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 22.24,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "2505 Canyon Creek Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "2505-canyon-creek-drive-temple",
"price": 249900,
"price_per_sqft": 134.57,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1857,
"sqft_delta": 3,
"subdivision": "Cliffs Of Canyon Creek Ph I",
"year_built": 1983
},
{
"address": "3811 River Oaks Circle",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "3811-river-oaks-circle-temple",
"price": 237900,
"price_per_sqft": 128.59,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1850,
"sqft_delta": -4,
"subdivision": "The Oaks",
"year_built": 1981
},
{
"address": "5921 Stanford Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "5921-stanford-drive-temple",
"price": 289000,
"price_per_sqft": 156.47,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1847,
"sqft_delta": -7,
"subdivision": "Alta Vista I",
"year_built": 2013
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 2505 Canyon Creek Drive, 3811 River Oaks Circle, 5921 Stanford Drive, this new-construction card is $30/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 134.57,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 164.5,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Temple",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 84,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.5,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2610,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 165723,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -39025,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 367,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.5,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2659,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 168707,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -36041,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 416,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 162.86,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2516,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 177261,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -27487,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 273,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.5,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2691,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 181278,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -23470,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 448,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.5,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2714,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 187234,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -17514,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 471,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.5,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2243,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 204748,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.5,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 661,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 353788,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 149040,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1582,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 3050,
"down_payment": 15097,
"effective_price": 301940,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 162.86,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 113,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 541,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2516,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 138009,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 177261,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 286843,
"monthly_mi": 143,
"monthly_pi": 1718,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1861,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 34563,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 269276
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 304990,
"effective_price": 304990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.5,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 114,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 546,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 661,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 314140,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 353788,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 34563,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 60998,
"effective_price": 304990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.5,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 114,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 546,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2243,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 165099,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 204748,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 243992,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1583,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1583,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 34563,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 229049
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 15250,
"effective_price": 304990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.5,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 114,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 546,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2714,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 147585,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 187234,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 289740,
"monthly_mi": 145,
"monthly_pi": 1908,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2053,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 34563,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 272444
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 10675,
"effective_price": 304990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.5,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 114,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 546,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2691,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 141629,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 181278,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 299466,
"monthly_mi": 137,
"monthly_pi": 1893,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2030,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 34563,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 280333
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 304990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.5,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 114,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 546,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2659,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 129058,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 168707,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 304990,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1998,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1998,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 34563,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 286627
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 304990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.5,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 114,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 546,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2610,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 126075,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 165723,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 311547,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1949,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1949,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 34563,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 291305
}
}
},
"id": "ffa6c58a8585",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"price_reduction",
"rate_buydown"
],
"negotiability_score": 86,
"original_price": 339553,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 304990,
"price_cut": 34563,
"rate": "2.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, price reduction, rate buydown language.",
"sqft": 1854,
"subdivision": "Ridge at Knob Creek",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "4026 Prairie Drive",
"apr": "5.775%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 10.19,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 4.98,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "3343 Bob White Lane",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "3343-bob-white-lane-belton",
"price": 798000,
"price_per_sqft": 356.73,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2237,
"sqft_delta": -2,
"subdivision": "Apache Point Rev",
"year_built": 1980
},
{
"address": "3306 Spring Canyon Road",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "3306-spring-canyon-road-belton",
"price": 459000,
"price_per_sqft": 204.64,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2243,
"sqft_delta": 4,
"subdivision": "Regatta Oaks Sub",
"year_built": 2013
},
{
"address": "203 Echo Village Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "203-echo-village-drive-temple",
"price": 275000,
"price_per_sqft": 123.1,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2234,
"sqft_delta": -5,
"subdivision": "Echo Village Ph Two",
"year_built": 2004
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 3343 Bob White Lane, 3306 Spring Canyon Road, 203 Echo Village Drive, this new-construction card is $10/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 204.64,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 214.83,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Nolanville",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 82,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 214.83,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4116,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 261362,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -61546,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 578,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 214.83,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4194,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 266068,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -56840,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 656,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 212.68,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3967,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 279559,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -43349,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 429,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 214.83,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4244,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 285894,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -37014,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 706,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 214.83,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4280,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 295287,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -27621,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 742,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 214.83,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3538,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 322908,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 214.83,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1042,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 557960,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 235052,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -2496,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 4810,
"down_payment": 23810,
"effective_price": 476190,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 212.68,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 179,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 853,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3967,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 217654,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 279559,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 452380,
"monthly_mi": 226,
"monthly_pi": 2709,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2936,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 46230,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 424675
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 481000,
"effective_price": 481000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 214.83,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 180,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 862,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1042,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 495430,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 557960,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 46230,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 96200,
"effective_price": 481000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 214.83,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 180,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 862,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3538,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 260378,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 322908,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 384800,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2496,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2496,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 46230,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 361234
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 24050,
"effective_price": 481000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 214.83,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 180,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 862,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4280,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 232757,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 295287,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 456950,
"monthly_mi": 228,
"monthly_pi": 3009,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3238,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 46230,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 429671
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 16835,
"effective_price": 481000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 214.83,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 180,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 862,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4244,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 223364,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 285894,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 472288,
"monthly_mi": 216,
"monthly_pi": 2985,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3202,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 46230,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 442113
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 481000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 214.83,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 180,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 862,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4194,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 203538,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 266068,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 481000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3152,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3152,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 46230,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 452040
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 481000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 214.83,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 180,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 862,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4116,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 198832,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 261362,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 491342,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3073,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3073,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 46230,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 459417
}
}
},
"id": "4c4ef1900b94",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"price_reduction"
],
"negotiability_score": 85,
"original_price": 527230,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 481000,
"price_cut": 46230,
"rate": "4.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, price reduction.",
"sqft": 2239,
"subdivision": "Bella Charca Phase 12",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "1201 Peppermint Drive",
"apr": "6.23%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": -1.62,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": -1.0,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "8915 Sky Crest Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "8915-sky-crest-drive-temple",
"price": 129000,
"price_per_sqft": 77.85,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-14-2026-mls-templebelton.csv",
"sqft": 1657,
"sqft_delta": 0,
"subdivision": "Lake Pointe Terrace Ph I",
"year_built": 2020
},
{
"address": "412 Dandridge Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "412-dandridge-drive-temple",
"price": 289900,
"price_per_sqft": 175.06,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1656,
"sqft_delta": -1,
"subdivision": "Wyndham Hill",
"year_built": 2013
},
{
"address": "3512 Oglala Trail",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "3512-oglala-trail-temple",
"price": 268000,
"price_per_sqft": 161.54,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1659,
"sqft_delta": 2,
"subdivision": "Prairie Rdg Ph 2",
"year_built": 2022
}
],
"favorable": true,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 8915 Sky Crest Drive, 412 Dandridge Drive, 3512 Oglala Trail, this new-construction card is $2/sqft cheaper on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 161.54,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 159.92,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Temple",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 66,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 159.92,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2267,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 143988,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -33907,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 318,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 159.92,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2311,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 146581,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -31314,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 362,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 158.32,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2186,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 154013,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -23882,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 237,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 159.92,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2338,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 157503,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -20392,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 389,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 159.92,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2358,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 162678,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -15217,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 409,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 159.92,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1949,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 177895,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 159.92,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 574,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 307388,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 129493,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1375,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 2650,
"down_payment": 13117,
"effective_price": 262340,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 158.32,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 98,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 470,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2186,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 119909,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 154013,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 249223,
"monthly_mi": 125,
"monthly_pi": 1493,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1617,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 11853,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 233960
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 264990,
"effective_price": 264990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 159.92,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 99,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 475,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 574,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 272940,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 307388,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 11853,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 52998,
"effective_price": 264990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 159.92,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 99,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 475,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1949,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 143446,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 177895,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 211992,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1375,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1375,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 11853,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 199009
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 13250,
"effective_price": 264990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 159.92,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 99,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 475,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2358,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 128229,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 162678,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 251740,
"monthly_mi": 126,
"monthly_pi": 1658,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1784,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 11853,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 236712
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 9275,
"effective_price": 264990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 159.92,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 99,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 475,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2338,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 123054,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 157503,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 260190,
"monthly_mi": 119,
"monthly_pi": 1645,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1764,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 11853,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 243567
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 264990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 159.92,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 99,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 475,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2311,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 112132,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 146581,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 264990,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1736,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1736,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 11853,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 249035
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 264990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 159.92,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 99,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 475,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2267,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 109540,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 143988,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 270687,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1693,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1693,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 11853,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 253100
}
}
},
"id": "520deab50dab",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"preferred_lender",
"price_reduction",
"rate_buydown"
],
"negotiability_score": 85,
"original_price": 276843,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 264990,
"price_cut": 11853,
"rate": "2.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, preferred-lender requirement, price reduction, rate buydown language.",
"sqft": 1657,
"subdivision": "Oak Ridge",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "2534 Cowgirl Trail",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 14.4,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 8.34,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "303 E 20th Avenue",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "303-e-20th-avenue-belton",
"price": 247000,
"price_per_sqft": 158.43,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1559,
"sqft_delta": 4,
"subdivision": "Brookwood Add",
"year_built": 1977
},
{
"address": "1001 N Penelope Street",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "1001-n-penelope-street-belton",
"price": 299000,
"price_per_sqft": 191.67,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1560,
"sqft_delta": 5,
"subdivision": "Belton Original",
"year_built": 1950
},
{
"address": "2704 Kneese Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "2704-kneese-drive-belton",
"price": 267400,
"price_per_sqft": 172.74,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1548,
"sqft_delta": -7,
"subdivision": "Forrest Hill Ph II",
"year_built": 2000
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 303 E 20th Avenue, 1001 N Penelope Street, 2704 Kneese Drive, this new-construction card is $14/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 172.74,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 187.14,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Jubilee Homes",
"city": "Belton",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 368,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 187.14,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2490,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 158121,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -37235,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 350,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 187.14,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2537,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 160968,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -34388,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 397,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.27,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2400,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 169130,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -26226,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 260,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 187.14,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2567,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 172963,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -22393,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 427,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 187.14,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2589,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 178646,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -16710,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 449,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 187.14,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2140,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 195356,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 187.14,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 630,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 337560,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 142204,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1510,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 2910,
"down_payment": 14404,
"effective_price": 288090,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.27,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 108,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 516,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2400,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 131678,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 169130,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 273686,
"monthly_mi": 137,
"monthly_pi": 1639,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1776,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 3000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 256924
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 291000,
"effective_price": 291000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 187.14,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 109,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 521,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 630,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 299730,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 337560,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 3000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 58200,
"effective_price": 291000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 187.14,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 109,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 521,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2140,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 157526,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 195356,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 232800,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1510,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1510,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 3000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 218543
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 14550,
"effective_price": 291000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 187.14,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 109,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 521,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2589,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 140816,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 178646,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 276450,
"monthly_mi": 138,
"monthly_pi": 1821,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1959,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 3000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 259947
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 10185,
"effective_price": 291000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 187.14,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 109,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 521,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2567,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 135133,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 172963,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 285729,
"monthly_mi": 131,
"monthly_pi": 1806,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1937,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 3000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 267474
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 291000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 187.14,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 109,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 521,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2537,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 123138,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 160968,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 291000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1907,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1907,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 3000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 273479
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 291000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 187.14,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 109,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 521,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2490,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 120291,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 158121,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 297256,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1859,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1859,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 3000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 277942
}
}
},
"id": "e8eddee83fb9",
"incentive_types": [
"preferred_lender",
"price_reduction"
],
"negotiability_score": 84,
"original_price": 294000,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 291000,
"price_cut": 3000,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: preferred-lender requirement, price reduction.",
"sqft": 1555,
"subdivision": "Hubbard Branch",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "2528 Cowgirl Trail",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 14.2,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 8.22,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "1001 N Penelope Street",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "1001-n-penelope-street-belton",
"price": 299000,
"price_per_sqft": 191.67,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1560,
"sqft_delta": -2,
"subdivision": "Belton Original",
"year_built": 1950
},
{
"address": "303 E 20th Avenue",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "303-e-20th-avenue-belton",
"price": 247000,
"price_per_sqft": 158.43,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1559,
"sqft_delta": -3,
"subdivision": "Brookwood Add",
"year_built": 1977
},
{
"address": "2704 Kneese Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "2704-kneese-drive-belton",
"price": 267400,
"price_per_sqft": 172.74,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1548,
"sqft_delta": -14,
"subdivision": "Forrest Hill Ph II",
"year_built": 2000
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 1001 N Penelope Street, 303 E 20th Avenue, 2704 Kneese Drive, this new-construction card is $14/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 172.74,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 186.94,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Jubilee Homes",
"city": "Belton",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 351,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 186.94,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2498,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 158665,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -37363,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 350,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 186.94,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2546,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 161521,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -34507,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 398,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.07,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2408,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 169711,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -26317,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 260,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 186.94,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2576,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 173557,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -22471,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 428,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 186.94,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2598,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 179259,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -16769,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 450,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 186.94,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2148,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 196028,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 186.94,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 633,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 338720,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 142692,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1515,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 2920,
"down_payment": 14454,
"effective_price": 289080,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.07,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 108,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 518,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2408,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 132131,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 169711,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 274626,
"monthly_mi": 137,
"monthly_pi": 1645,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1782,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 3000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 257807
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 292000,
"effective_price": 292000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 186.94,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 110,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 523,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 633,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 300760,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 338720,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 3000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 58400,
"effective_price": 292000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 186.94,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 110,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 523,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2148,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 158068,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 196028,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 233600,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1515,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1515,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 3000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 219294
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 14600,
"effective_price": 292000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 186.94,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 110,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 523,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2598,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 141299,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 179259,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 277400,
"monthly_mi": 139,
"monthly_pi": 1827,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1966,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 3000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 260840
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 10220,
"effective_price": 292000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 186.94,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 110,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 523,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2576,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 135597,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 173557,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 286711,
"monthly_mi": 131,
"monthly_pi": 1812,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1944,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 3000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 268393
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 292000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 186.94,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 110,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 523,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2546,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 123561,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 161521,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 292000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1913,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1913,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 3000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 274419
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 292000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 186.94,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 110,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 523,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2498,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 120705,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 158665,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 298278,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1866,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1866,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 3000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 278898
}
}
},
"id": "8897de334d31",
"incentive_types": [
"preferred_lender",
"price_reduction"
],
"negotiability_score": 84,
"original_price": 295000,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 292000,
"price_cut": 3000,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: preferred-lender requirement, price reduction.",
"sqft": 1562,
"subdivision": "Hubbard Branch",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "1313 Shirley Faye Lane",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 4.86,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 2.27,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "2068 Pirtle Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "2068-pirtle-drive-salado",
"price": 449900,
"price_per_sqft": 214.14,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2101,
"sqft_delta": 1,
"subdivision": "Salado Lakeview Fka Cedar Kno",
"year_built": 2012
},
{
"address": "8099 Fm 2484",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "8099-fm-2484-salado",
"price": 389900,
"price_per_sqft": 188.27,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2071,
"sqft_delta": -29,
"subdivision": "Salado Spgs Estates Sec",
"year_built": 1999
},
{
"address": "11010 La Paloma Loop",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "11010-la-paloma-loop-salado",
"price": 584000,
"price_per_sqft": 270.87,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2156,
"sqft_delta": 56,
"subdivision": "La Paloma Sub",
"year_built": 2014
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 2068 Pirtle Drive, 8099 Fm 2484, 11010 La Paloma Loop, this new-construction card is $5/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 214.14,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 219.0,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "White River Homes",
"city": "Salado",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 207,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 219.0,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3935,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 249897,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -58846,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 552,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 219.0,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4010,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 254396,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -54347,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 627,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 216.81,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3793,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 267295,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -41448,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 410,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 219.0,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4058,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 273352,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -35391,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 675,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 219.0,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4092,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 282334,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -26409,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 709,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 219.0,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3383,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 308743,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 219.0,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 996,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 533484,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 224741,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -2387,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 4599,
"down_payment": 22765,
"effective_price": 455301,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 216.81,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 171,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 816,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3793,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 208106,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 267295,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 432536,
"monthly_mi": 216,
"monthly_pi": 2590,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2807,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 10000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 406046
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 459900,
"effective_price": 459900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 219.0,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 172,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 824,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 996,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 473697,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 533484,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 10000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 91980,
"effective_price": 459900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 219.0,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 172,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 824,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3383,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 248956,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 308743,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 367920,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2386,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2386,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 10000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 345388
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 22995,
"effective_price": 459900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 219.0,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 172,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 824,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4092,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 222547,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 282334,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 436905,
"monthly_mi": 218,
"monthly_pi": 2877,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3096,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 10000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 410823
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 16097,
"effective_price": 459900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 219.0,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 172,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 824,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4058,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 213565,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 273352,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 451570,
"monthly_mi": 207,
"monthly_pi": 2854,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3061,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 10000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 422719
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 459900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 219.0,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 172,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 824,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4010,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 194609,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 254396,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 459900,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3014,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3014,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 10000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 432210
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 459900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 219.0,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 172,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 824,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3935,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 190110,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 249897,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 469788,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2939,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2939,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 10000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 439264
}
}
},
"id": "28c83f62e73e",
"incentive_types": [
"preferred_lender",
"price_reduction"
],
"negotiability_score": 84,
"original_price": 469900,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 459900,
"price_cut": 10000,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: preferred-lender requirement, price reduction.",
"sqft": 2100,
"subdivision": "Drakes Landing Phase II",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "221 Cabiness Drive",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 6.16,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 2.73,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "11010 La Paloma Loop",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "11010-la-paloma-loop-salado",
"price": 584000,
"price_per_sqft": 270.87,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2156,
"sqft_delta": 7,
"subdivision": "La Paloma Sub",
"year_built": 2014
},
{
"address": "2068 Pirtle Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "2068-pirtle-drive-salado",
"price": 449900,
"price_per_sqft": 214.14,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2101,
"sqft_delta": -48,
"subdivision": "Salado Lakeview Fka Cedar Kno",
"year_built": 2012
},
{
"address": "1601 Guess Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "1601-guess-drive-salado",
"price": 500000,
"price_per_sqft": 226.04,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2212,
"sqft_delta": 63,
"subdivision": "Chisholm Trail Ph 1",
"year_built": 1996
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 11010 La Paloma Loop, 2068 Pirtle Drive, 1601 Guess Drive, this new-construction card is $6/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 226.04,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 232.2,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "CastleRock",
"city": "Salado",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 258,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 232.2,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4270,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 271143,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -63849,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 600,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 232.2,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4351,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 276025,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -58967,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 681,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 229.88,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4116,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 290020,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -44972,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 446,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 232.2,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4403,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 296592,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -38400,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 733,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 232.2,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4440,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 306337,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -28655,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 770,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 232.2,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3670,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 334992,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 232.2,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1081,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 578840,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 243848,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -2589,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 4990,
"down_payment": 24700,
"effective_price": 494010,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 229.88,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 185,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 885,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4116,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 225799,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 290020,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 469310,
"monthly_mi": 235,
"monthly_pi": 2811,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3045,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 32523,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 440568
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 499000,
"effective_price": 499000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 232.2,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 187,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 894,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1081,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 513970,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 578840,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 32523,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 99800,
"effective_price": 499000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 232.2,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 187,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 894,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3670,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 270122,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 334992,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 399200,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2589,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2589,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 32523,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 374752
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 24950,
"effective_price": 499000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 232.2,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 187,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 894,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4440,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 241467,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 306337,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 474050,
"monthly_mi": 237,
"monthly_pi": 3122,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3359,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 32523,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 445751
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 17465,
"effective_price": 499000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 232.2,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 187,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 894,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4403,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 231722,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 296592,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 489962,
"monthly_mi": 225,
"monthly_pi": 3097,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3321,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 32523,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 458658
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 499000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 232.2,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 187,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 894,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4351,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 211155,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 276025,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 499000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3270,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3270,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 32523,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 468956
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 499000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 232.2,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 187,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 894,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4270,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 206273,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 271143,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 509728,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3188,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3188,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 32523,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 476609
}
}
},
"id": "0f9e1b23ac30",
"incentive_types": [
"preferred_lender",
"price_reduction"
],
"negotiability_score": 84,
"original_price": 531523,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 499000,
"price_cut": 32523,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: preferred-lender requirement, price reduction.",
"sqft": 2149,
"subdivision": "Sanctuary",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "11042 Eagle Walk Boulevard",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 51.09,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 27.3,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "1710 Old Mill Road Unit#12",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "1710-old-mill-road-unit-12-salado",
"price": 389990,
"price_per_sqft": 145.19,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2686,
"sqft_delta": 4,
"subdivision": "The Old Mill Circle",
"year_built": 1977
},
{
"address": "8301 Brewer Lane",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "8301-brewer-lane-salado",
"price": 1100000,
"price_per_sqft": 411.52,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2673,
"sqft_delta": -9,
"subdivision": "E Brewer Surv Abs #61",
"year_built": 2007
},
{
"address": "380 Salado Creek Road",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "380-salado-creek-road-salado",
"price": 499999,
"price_per_sqft": 187.13,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2672,
"sqft_delta": -10,
"subdivision": "",
"year_built": 1998
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 1710 Old Mill Road Unit#12, 8301 Brewer Lane, 380 Salado Creek Road, this new-construction card is $51/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 187.13,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 238.22,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Omicron Custom Homes",
"city": "Salado",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 257,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 238.22,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5467,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 347160,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -81750,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 768,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 238.22,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5571,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 353411,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -75499,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 872,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 235.84,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5270,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 371330,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -57580,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 571,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 238.22,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5637,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 379745,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -49165,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 938,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 238.22,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5685,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 392221,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -36689,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 986,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 238.22,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4699,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 428910,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 238.22,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1384,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 741123,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 312213,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -3315,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 6389,
"down_payment": 31626,
"effective_price": 632510,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 235.84,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 237,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1133,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5270,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 289104,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 371330,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 600884,
"monthly_mi": 300,
"monthly_pi": 3599,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3899,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 6101,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 564085
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 638899,
"effective_price": 638899,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 238.22,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 240,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1145,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1384,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 658066,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 741123,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 6101,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 127780,
"effective_price": 638899,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 238.22,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 240,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1145,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4699,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 345853,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 428910,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 511119,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3315,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3315,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 6101,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 479817
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 31945,
"effective_price": 638899,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 238.22,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 240,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1145,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5685,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 309165,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 392221,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 606954,
"monthly_mi": 303,
"monthly_pi": 3997,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4301,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 6101,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 570721
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 22361,
"effective_price": 638899,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 238.22,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 240,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1145,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5637,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 296688,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 379745,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 627327,
"monthly_mi": 288,
"monthly_pi": 3965,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4253,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 6101,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 587247
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 638899,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 238.22,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 240,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1145,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5571,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 270354,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 353411,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 638899,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 4186,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4186,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 6101,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 600432
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 638899,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 238.22,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 240,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1145,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5467,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 264103,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 347160,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 652635,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 4082,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4082,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 6101,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 610231
}
}
},
"id": "7ad347308cb4",
"incentive_types": [
"preferred_lender",
"price_reduction"
],
"negotiability_score": 84,
"original_price": 645000,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 638899,
"price_cut": 6101,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: preferred-lender requirement, price reduction.",
"sqft": 2682,
"subdivision": "Eagle Ranch",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "1010 College Avenue",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": -28.85,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": -15.8,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "1503 E Calhoun Avenue",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1503-e-calhoun-avenue-temple",
"price": 184900,
"price_per_sqft": 157.23,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1176,
"sqft_delta": 2,
"subdivision": "Highland Terrace Annex Ph I",
"year_built": 1999
},
{
"address": "1607 Ridgeway Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1607-ridgeway-drive-temple",
"price": 214000,
"price_per_sqft": 182.59,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1172,
"sqft_delta": -2,
"subdivision": "Oak Hills Sec Two Ph Tw",
"year_built": 1988
},
{
"address": "1319 N 12th Street",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1319-n-12th-street-temple",
"price": 215000,
"price_per_sqft": 183.45,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1172,
"sqft_delta": -2,
"subdivision": "Patterson Add Ph One",
"year_built": 1996
}
],
"favorable": true,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 1503 E Calhoun Avenue, 1607 Ridgeway Drive, 1319 N 12th Street, this new-construction card is $29/sqft cheaper on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 182.59,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 153.74,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Troy",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 87,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 153.74,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1544,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 98073,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -23095,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 216,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 153.74,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1574,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 99839,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -21329,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 246,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 152.2,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1489,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 104901,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -16267,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 161,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 153.74,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1592,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 107279,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -13889,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 264,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 153.74,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1606,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 110803,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -10365,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 278,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 153.74,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1328,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 121168,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 153.74,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 391,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 209368,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 88200,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -937,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 1805,
"down_payment": 8934,
"effective_price": 178685,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 152.2,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 67,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 320,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1489,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 81672,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 104901,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 169751,
"monthly_mi": 85,
"monthly_pi": 1017,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1102,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 22553,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 159355
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 180490,
"effective_price": 180490,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 153.74,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 68,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 323,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 391,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 185905,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 209368,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 22553,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 36098,
"effective_price": 180490,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 153.74,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 68,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 323,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1328,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 97704,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 121168,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 144392,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 937,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 937,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 22553,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 135549
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 9024,
"effective_price": 180490,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 153.74,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 68,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 323,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1606,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 87339,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 110803,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 171466,
"monthly_mi": 86,
"monthly_pi": 1129,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1215,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 22553,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 161230
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 6317,
"effective_price": 180490,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 153.74,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 68,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 323,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1592,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 83815,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 107279,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 177221,
"monthly_mi": 81,
"monthly_pi": 1120,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1201,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 22553,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 165898
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 180490,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 153.74,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 68,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 323,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1574,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 76375,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 99839,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 180490,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1183,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1183,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 22553,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 169623
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 180490,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 153.74,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 68,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 323,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1544,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 74610,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 98073,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 184371,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1153,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1153,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 22553,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 172391
}
}
},
"id": "506aabf266ed",
"incentive_types": [
"closing_costs",
"exclusive_savings",
"preferred_lender",
"price_reduction"
],
"negotiability_score": 84,
"original_price": 203043,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 180490,
"price_cut": 22553,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: closing-cost concession language, limited incentive language, preferred-lender requirement, price reduction.",
"sqft": 1174,
"subdivision": "College Park",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "8908 Chalk Maple Drive",
"apr": "5.691%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 30.72,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 21.68,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "410 Cheetah Trail",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "410-cheetah-trail-harker-heights",
"price": 317500,
"price_per_sqft": 155.79,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 2038,
"sqft_delta": 8,
"subdivision": "Country Trails Comm Add",
"year_built": 2005
},
{
"address": "110 Stone Canyon Court",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "110-stone-canyon-court-harker-heights",
"price": 250000,
"price_per_sqft": 122.19,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 2046,
"sqft_delta": 16,
"subdivision": "Tanglewood North 4th Unit 1st",
"year_built": 1978
},
{
"address": "400 Cheetah Trail",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "400-cheetah-trail-harker-heights",
"price": 289900,
"price_per_sqft": 141.69,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 2046,
"sqft_delta": 16,
"subdivision": "Country Trails Comm Add",
"year_built": 2004
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 410 Cheetah Trail, 110 Stone Canyon Court, 400 Cheetah Trail, this new-construction card is $31/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 141.69,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 172.41,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Killeen",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 54,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.41,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2995,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 190175,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -44783,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 421,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.41,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3052,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 193599,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -41359,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 478,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 170.68,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2887,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 203415,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -31543,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 313,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.41,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3088,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 208025,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -26933,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 514,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.41,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3114,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 214860,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -20098,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 540,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.41,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2574,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 234958,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.41,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 758,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 405988,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 171030,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1816,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 3500,
"down_payment": 17324,
"effective_price": 346490,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 170.68,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 130,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 621,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2887,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 158371,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 203415,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 329166,
"monthly_mi": 165,
"monthly_pi": 1971,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2136,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 12935,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 309006
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 349990,
"effective_price": 349990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.41,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 131,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 627,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 758,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 360490,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 405988,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 12935,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 69998,
"effective_price": 349990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.41,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 131,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 627,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2574,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 189459,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 234958,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 279992,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1816,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1816,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 12935,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 262844
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 17500,
"effective_price": 349990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.41,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 131,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 627,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3114,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 169361,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 214860,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 332490,
"monthly_mi": 166,
"monthly_pi": 2190,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2356,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 12935,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 312642
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 12250,
"effective_price": 349990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.41,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 131,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 627,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3088,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 162526,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 208025,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 343651,
"monthly_mi": 158,
"monthly_pi": 2172,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2330,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 12935,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 321695
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 349990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.41,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 131,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 627,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3052,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 148100,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 193599,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 349990,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2293,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2293,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 12935,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 328918
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 349990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.41,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 131,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 627,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2995,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 144676,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 190175,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 357515,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2236,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2236,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 12935,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 334286
}
}
},
"id": "f651dc6a4de1",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"preferred_lender",
"price_reduction"
],
"negotiability_score": 81,
"original_price": 362925,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 349990,
"price_cut": 12935,
"rate": "4.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, preferred-lender requirement, price reduction.",
"sqft": 2030,
"subdivision": "Preserve at Thousand Oaks",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "8902 Chalk Maple Drive",
"apr": "6.23%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 19.4,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 14.1,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "713 Bighorn Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "713-bighorn-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 320000,
"price_per_sqft": 137.58,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 2326,
"sqft_delta": 1,
"subdivision": "Skipcha Mountain Estates Ph",
"year_built": 2005
},
{
"address": "4405 Pawnee Trail",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "4405-pawnee-trail-harker-heights",
"price": 330000,
"price_per_sqft": 142.36,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 2318,
"sqft_delta": -7,
"subdivision": "Broken Arrow Lake Estates Sec",
"year_built": 1971
},
{
"address": "916 Mustang Trail",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "916-mustang-trail-harker-heights",
"price": 310000,
"price_per_sqft": 132.76,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 2335,
"sqft_delta": 10,
"subdivision": "Skipcha Mountain Estates Ph",
"year_built": 2005
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 713 Bighorn Drive, 4405 Pawnee Trail, 916 Mustang Trail, this new-construction card is $19/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 137.58,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 156.98,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Killeen",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 54,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 156.98,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3123,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 198326,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -46702,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 438,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 156.98,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3182,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 201896,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -43132,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 497,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 155.42,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3010,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 212133,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -32895,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 325,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 156.98,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3220,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 216940,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -28088,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 535,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 156.98,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3248,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 224068,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -20960,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 563,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 156.98,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2685,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 245028,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 156.98,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 791,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 423388,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 178360,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1894,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 3650,
"down_payment": 18067,
"effective_price": 361340,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 155.42,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 136,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 647,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3010,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 165159,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 212133,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 343273,
"monthly_mi": 172,
"monthly_pi": 2056,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2228,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 19050,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 322250
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 364990,
"effective_price": 364990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 156.98,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 137,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 654,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 791,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 375940,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 423388,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 19050,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 72998,
"effective_price": 364990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 156.98,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 137,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 654,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2685,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 197579,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 245028,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 291992,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1894,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1894,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 19050,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 274110
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 18250,
"effective_price": 364990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 156.98,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 137,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 654,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3248,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 176619,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 224068,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 346740,
"monthly_mi": 173,
"monthly_pi": 2284,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2457,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 19050,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 326041
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 12775,
"effective_price": 364990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 156.98,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 137,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 654,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3220,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 169492,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 216940,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 358379,
"monthly_mi": 164,
"monthly_pi": 2265,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2429,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 19050,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 335482
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 364990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 156.98,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 137,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 654,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3182,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 154448,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 201896,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 364990,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2392,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2392,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 19050,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 343014
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 364990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 156.98,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 137,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 654,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3123,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 150877,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 198326,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 372837,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2332,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2332,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 19050,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 348612
}
}
},
"id": "1c416c7027a7",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"preferred_lender",
"price_reduction"
],
"negotiability_score": 81,
"original_price": 384040,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 364990,
"price_cut": 19050,
"rate": "4.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, preferred-lender requirement, price reduction.",
"sqft": 2325,
"subdivision": "Preserve at Thousand Oaks",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "8904 Chalk Maple Drive",
"apr": "5.691%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 33.56,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 29.83,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "2122 Modoc Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "2122-modoc-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 320000,
"price_per_sqft": 112.52,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 2844,
"sqft_delta": -31,
"subdivision": "Skipcha Mountain Estates Ph",
"year_built": 2005
},
{
"address": "3381 Vineyard Trail",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "3381-vineyard-trail-harker-heights",
"price": 399999,
"price_per_sqft": 143.27,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 2792,
"sqft_delta": -83,
"subdivision": "Tuscany Meadows Ph 1",
"year_built": 2013
},
{
"address": "2408 Catawba Loop",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "2408-catawba-loop-harker-heights",
"price": 309900,
"price_per_sqft": 111.15,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 2788,
"sqft_delta": -87,
"subdivision": "Skipcha Mountain Estates Ph",
"year_built": 2002
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 2122 Modoc Drive, 3381 Vineyard Trail, 2408 Catawba Loop, this new-construction card is $34/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 112.52,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 146.08,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Killeen",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 54,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 146.08,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3594,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 228211,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -53740,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 505,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 146.08,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3662,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 232320,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -49631,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 573,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 144.62,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3464,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 244099,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -37852,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 375,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 146.08,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3706,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 249631,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -32320,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 617,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 146.08,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3737,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 257833,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -24118,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 648,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 146.08,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3089,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 281951,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 146.08,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 910,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 487188,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 205237,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -2179,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 4200,
"down_payment": 20790,
"effective_price": 415790,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 144.62,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 156,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 745,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3464,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 190047,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 244099,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 395000,
"monthly_mi": 198,
"monthly_pi": 2366,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2563,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 29975,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 370810
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 419990,
"effective_price": 419990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 146.08,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 157,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 752,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 910,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 432590,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 487188,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 29975,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 83998,
"effective_price": 419990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 146.08,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 157,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 752,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3089,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 227352,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 281951,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 335992,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2179,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2179,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 29975,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 315415
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 21000,
"effective_price": 419990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 146.08,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 157,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 752,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3737,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 203234,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 257833,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 398990,
"monthly_mi": 199,
"monthly_pi": 2628,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2827,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 29975,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 375172
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 14700,
"effective_price": 419990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 146.08,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 157,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 752,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3706,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 195032,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 249631,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 412383,
"monthly_mi": 189,
"monthly_pi": 2607,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2796,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 29975,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 386036
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 419990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 146.08,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 157,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 752,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3662,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 177721,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 232320,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 419990,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2752,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2752,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 29975,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 394703
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 419990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 146.08,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 157,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 752,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3594,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 173612,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 228211,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 429020,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2684,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2684,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 29975,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 401145
}
}
},
"id": "0cc58697f3e9",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"preferred_lender",
"price_reduction"
],
"negotiability_score": 81,
"original_price": 449965,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 419990,
"price_cut": 29975,
"rate": "4.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, preferred-lender requirement, price reduction.",
"sqft": 2875,
"subdivision": "Preserve at Thousand Oaks",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "9005 Chalk Maple Drive",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 38.73,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 25.01,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "1602 Indian Trail",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1602-indian-trail-harker-heights",
"price": 165000,
"price_per_sqft": 122.04,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1352,
"sqft_delta": -8,
"subdivision": "Comanche Land 1st Unit",
"year_built": 1982
},
{
"address": "4214 Broken Arrow Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "4214-broken-arrow-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 239700,
"price_per_sqft": 174.71,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1372,
"sqft_delta": 12,
"subdivision": "Broken Arrow Lake Estates Sec",
"year_built": 1977
},
{
"address": "1102 Chablis Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1102-chablis-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 214900,
"price_per_sqft": 154.83,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1388,
"sqft_delta": 28,
"subdivision": "The Vineyard",
"year_built": 1994
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 1602 Indian Trail, 4214 Broken Arrow Drive, 1102 Chablis Drive, this new-construction card is $39/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 154.83,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 193.56,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Killeen",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 164,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 193.56,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2252,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 143037,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -33683,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 316,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 193.56,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2295,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 145613,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -31107,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 359,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 191.62,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2171,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 152996,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -23724,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 235,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 193.56,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2323,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 156463,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -20257,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 387,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 193.56,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2342,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 161604,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -15116,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 406,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 193.56,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1936,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 176720,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 193.56,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 570,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 305358,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 128638,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1366,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 2632,
"down_payment": 13030,
"effective_price": 260608,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 191.62,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 98,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 467,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2171,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 119117,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 152996,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 247578,
"monthly_mi": 124,
"monthly_pi": 1483,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1607,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 232415
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 263240,
"effective_price": 263240,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 193.56,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 99,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 472,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 570,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 271137,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 305358,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 52648,
"effective_price": 263240,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 193.56,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 99,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 472,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1936,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 142499,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 176720,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 210592,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1366,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1366,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 197695
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 13162,
"effective_price": 263240,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 193.56,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 99,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 472,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2342,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 127382,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 161604,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 250078,
"monthly_mi": 125,
"monthly_pi": 1647,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1772,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 235149
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 9213,
"effective_price": 263240,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 193.56,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 99,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 472,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2323,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 122242,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 156463,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 258472,
"monthly_mi": 118,
"monthly_pi": 1634,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1752,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 241958
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 263240,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 193.56,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 99,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 472,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2295,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 111391,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 145613,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 263240,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1725,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1725,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 247391
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 263240,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 193.56,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 99,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 472,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2252,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 108816,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 143037,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 268900,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1682,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1682,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 251428
}
}
},
"id": "3b84764b8ee4",
"incentive_types": [
"closing_costs",
"exclusive_savings",
"preferred_lender"
],
"negotiability_score": 80,
"original_price": 263240,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 263240,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: closing-cost concession language, limited incentive language, preferred-lender requirement.",
"sqft": 1360,
"subdivision": "Preserve at Thousand Oaks",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "2533 Tin Barn Bluff",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 5.85,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 3.41,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "5700 Redfish Court",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "5700-redfish-court-belton",
"price": 350000,
"price_per_sqft": 171.48,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2041,
"sqft_delta": -6,
"subdivision": "Three Creeks",
"year_built": 2022
},
{
"address": "4601 Abergavenny Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "4601-abergavenny-drive-belton",
"price": 310000,
"price_per_sqft": 150.49,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2060,
"sqft_delta": 13,
"subdivision": "Three Creeks Ph I",
"year_built": 2015
},
{
"address": "166 Mountain Rose Road",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "166-mountain-rose-road-belton",
"price": 425000,
"price_per_sqft": 209.26,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2031,
"sqft_delta": -16,
"subdivision": "High Crest Ph II",
"year_built": 2017
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 5700 Redfish Court, 4601 Abergavenny Drive, 166 Mountain Rose Road, this new-construction card is $6/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 171.48,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 177.33,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Rocky Creek Homes",
"city": "Belton",
"closing_credit": 10000,
"dom": 176,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 177.33,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3106,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 187544,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -46448,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 436,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 177.33,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3165,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 191095,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -42897,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 495,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 177.33,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3203,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 206058,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -27934,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 533,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 177.33,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3024,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 206964,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -27028,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 354,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 177.33,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3230,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 213146,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -20846,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 560,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 177.33,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2670,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 233992,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 177.33,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 786,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 411380,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 177388,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1884,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 18150,
"effective_price": 363000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 177.33,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 136,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 650,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3024,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 159774,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 206964,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 344850,
"monthly_mi": 172,
"monthly_pi": 2065,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2238,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 5500,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 323730
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 363000,
"effective_price": 363000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 177.33,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 136,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 650,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 786,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 364190,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 411380,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 5500,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 72600,
"effective_price": 363000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 177.33,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 136,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 650,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2670,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 186802,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 233992,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 290400,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1884,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1884,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 5500,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 272615
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 18150,
"effective_price": 363000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 177.33,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 136,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 650,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3230,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 165956,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 213146,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 344850,
"monthly_mi": 172,
"monthly_pi": 2271,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2444,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 5500,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 324263
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 12705,
"effective_price": 363000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 177.33,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 136,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 650,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3203,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 158868,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 206058,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 356425,
"monthly_mi": 163,
"monthly_pi": 2253,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2416,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 5500,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 333653
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 363000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 177.33,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 136,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 650,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3165,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 143905,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 191095,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 363000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2379,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2379,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 5500,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 341144
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 363000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 177.33,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 136,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 650,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3106,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 140354,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 187544,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 370804,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2319,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2319,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 5500,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 346712
}
}
},
"id": "d85e771ba59b",
"incentive_types": [
"closing_costs",
"price_reduction"
],
"negotiability_score": 79,
"original_price": 378500,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 373000,
"price_cut": 5500,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: closing-cost concession language, price reduction.",
"sqft": 2047,
"subdivision": "Hubbard Branch",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "2539 Tin Barn Bluff",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 30.48,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 20.83,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "743 E 13th Avenue",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "743-e-13th-avenue-belton",
"price": 246900,
"price_per_sqft": 118.7,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2080,
"sqft_delta": 0,
"subdivision": "Means 1",
"year_built": 1947
},
{
"address": "2114 Hamilton Lane",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "2114-hamilton-lane-belton",
"price": 305000,
"price_per_sqft": 146.35,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2084,
"sqft_delta": 4,
"subdivision": "Liberty Valley Ph III",
"year_built": 2017
},
{
"address": "508 N Wall Street",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "508-n-wall-street-belton",
"price": 377000,
"price_per_sqft": 180.73,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2086,
"sqft_delta": 6,
"subdivision": "Alexanders Add",
"year_built": 1915
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 743 E 13th Avenue, 2114 Hamilton Lane, 508 N Wall Street, this new-construction card is $30/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 146.35,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 176.83,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Rocky Creek Homes",
"city": "Belton",
"closing_credit": 10000,
"dom": 187,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.83,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3147,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 190152,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -47062,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 442,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.83,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3207,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 193751,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -43463,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 502,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.83,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3245,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 208911,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -28303,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 540,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.83,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3064,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 209829,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -27385,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 359,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.83,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3273,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 216093,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -21121,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 568,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.83,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2705,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 237214,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.83,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 797,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 416948,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 179734,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1908,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 18390,
"effective_price": 367800,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.83,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 138,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 659,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3064,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 162015,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 209829,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 349410,
"monthly_mi": 175,
"monthly_pi": 2093,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2267,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 7000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 328011
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 367800,
"effective_price": 367800,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.83,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 138,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 659,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 797,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 369134,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 416948,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 7000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 73560,
"effective_price": 367800,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.83,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 138,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 659,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2705,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 189400,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 237214,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 294240,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1908,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1908,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 7000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 276220
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 18390,
"effective_price": 367800,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.83,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 138,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 659,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3273,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 168279,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 216093,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 349410,
"monthly_mi": 175,
"monthly_pi": 2301,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2476,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 7000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 328551
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 12873,
"effective_price": 367800,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.83,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 138,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 659,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3245,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 161097,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 208911,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 361138,
"monthly_mi": 166,
"monthly_pi": 2283,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2448,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 7000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 338065
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 367800,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.83,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 138,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 659,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3207,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 145937,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 193751,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 367800,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2410,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2410,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 7000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 345655
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 367800,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.83,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 138,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 659,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3147,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 142338,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 190152,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 375708,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2350,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2350,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 7000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 351296
}
}
},
"id": "434d99102600",
"incentive_types": [
"closing_costs",
"price_reduction"
],
"negotiability_score": 79,
"original_price": 384800,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 377800,
"price_cut": 7000,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: closing-cost concession language, price reduction.",
"sqft": 2080,
"subdivision": "Hubbard Branch",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "1803 Paint Horse Trail",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 51.78,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 37.51,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "1418 Loblolly Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "1418-loblolly-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 295000,
"price_per_sqft": 138.04,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 2137,
"sqft_delta": 6,
"subdivision": "Evergreen Ph I",
"year_built": 2007
},
{
"address": "1701 Elk Trail",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "1701-elk-trail-harker-heights",
"price": 260000,
"price_per_sqft": 122.82,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 2117,
"sqft_delta": -14,
"subdivision": "Country Trails",
"year_built": 1983
},
{
"address": "818 Terra Cotta Court",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "818-terra-cotta-court-harker-heights",
"price": 360000,
"price_per_sqft": 167.6,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 2148,
"sqft_delta": 17,
"subdivision": "Tuscany Meadows Ph 1",
"year_built": 2015
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 1418 Loblolly Drive, 1701 Elk Trail, 818 Terra Cotta Court, this new-construction card is $52/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 138.04,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 189.82,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "King Signature Homes",
"city": "Harker Heights",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 187,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 189.82,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3461,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 219794,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -51758,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 486,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 189.82,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3527,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 223751,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -47801,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 552,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 187.92,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3336,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 235097,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -36455,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 361,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 189.82,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3569,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 240424,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -31128,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 594,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 189.82,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3599,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 248323,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -23229,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 624,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 189.82,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2975,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 271552,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 189.82,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 876,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 469220,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 197668,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -2099,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 4045,
"down_payment": 20023,
"effective_price": 400455,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 187.92,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 150,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 717,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3336,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 183037,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 235097,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 380432,
"monthly_mi": 190,
"monthly_pi": 2278,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2469,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 400,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 357133
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 404500,
"effective_price": 404500,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 189.82,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 152,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 725,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 876,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 416635,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 469220,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 400,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 80900,
"effective_price": 404500,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 189.82,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 152,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 725,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2975,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 218967,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 271552,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 323600,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2099,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2099,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 400,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 303782
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 20225,
"effective_price": 404500,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 189.82,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 152,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 725,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3599,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 195738,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 248323,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 384275,
"monthly_mi": 192,
"monthly_pi": 2531,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2723,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 400,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 361335
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 14158,
"effective_price": 404500,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 189.82,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 152,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 725,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3569,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 187839,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 240424,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 397173,
"monthly_mi": 182,
"monthly_pi": 2510,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2692,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 400,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 371798
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 404500,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 189.82,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 152,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 725,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3527,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 171166,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 223751,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 404500,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2651,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2651,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 400,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 380146
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 404500,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 189.82,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 152,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 725,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3461,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 167209,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 219794,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 413197,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2585,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2585,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 400,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 386350
}
}
},
"id": "f20713978c03",
"incentive_types": [
"lender_credit",
"price_reduction"
],
"negotiability_score": 79,
"original_price": 404900,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 404500,
"price_cut": 400,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: lender-credit language, price reduction.",
"sqft": 2131,
"subdivision": "THE VILLAGE AT NOLAN HEIGHTS",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "8907 Chalk Maple Drive",
"apr": "5.775%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 12.62,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 7.77,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "1705 Lynx Circle",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1705-lynx-circle-harker-heights",
"price": 269900,
"price_per_sqft": 162.39,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1662,
"sqft_delta": 5,
"subdivision": "Country Trails Add 6th Ph",
"year_built": 1992
},
{
"address": "2006 Longmeadow Road",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "2006-longmeadow-road-harker-heights",
"price": 314900,
"price_per_sqft": 191.31,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1646,
"sqft_delta": -11,
"subdivision": "Whitten Place",
"year_built": 1988
},
{
"address": "1706 Lynx Circle",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1706-lynx-circle-harker-heights",
"price": 255000,
"price_per_sqft": 155.39,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1641,
"sqft_delta": -16,
"subdivision": "Country Trails Add 6th Ph",
"year_built": 1987
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 1705 Lynx Circle, 2006 Longmeadow Road, 1706 Lynx Circle, this new-construction card is $13/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 162.39,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 175.01,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Killeen",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 65,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 175.01,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2481,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 157573,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -37105,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 348,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 175.01,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2528,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 160410,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -34268,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 395,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 173.26,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2392,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 168543,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -26135,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 259,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 175.01,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2559,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 172362,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -22316,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 426,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 175.01,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2580,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 178025,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -16653,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 447,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 175.01,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2133,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 194678,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 175.01,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 628,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 336388,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 141710,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1505,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 2900,
"down_payment": 14354,
"effective_price": 287090,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 173.26,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 108,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 514,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2392,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 131221,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 168543,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 272736,
"monthly_mi": 136,
"monthly_pi": 1633,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1770,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 3305,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 256032
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 289990,
"effective_price": 289990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 175.01,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 109,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 520,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 628,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 298690,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 336388,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 3305,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 57998,
"effective_price": 289990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 175.01,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 109,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 520,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2133,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 156979,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 194678,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 231992,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1505,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1505,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 3305,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 217784
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 14500,
"effective_price": 289990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 175.01,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 109,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 520,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2580,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 140327,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 178025,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 275490,
"monthly_mi": 138,
"monthly_pi": 1814,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1952,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 3305,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 259045
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 10150,
"effective_price": 289990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 175.01,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 109,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 520,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2559,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 134664,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 172362,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 284738,
"monthly_mi": 131,
"monthly_pi": 1800,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1930,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 3305,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 266546
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 289990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 175.01,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 109,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 520,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2528,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 122711,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 160410,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 289990,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1900,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1900,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 3305,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 272530
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 289990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 175.01,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 109,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 520,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2481,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 119874,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 157573,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 296225,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1853,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1853,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 3305,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 276978
}
}
},
"id": "71eee616bd9a",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"price_reduction"
],
"negotiability_score": 79,
"original_price": 293295,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 289990,
"price_cut": 3305,
"rate": "4.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, price reduction.",
"sqft": 1657,
"subdivision": "Preserve at Thousand Oaks",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "3011 Privet Drive",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 8.59,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 5.71,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "1711 Lynx Circle",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1711-lynx-circle-harker-heights",
"price": 280000,
"price_per_sqft": 150.54,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1860,
"sqft_delta": 1,
"subdivision": "Country Trails Add 6th Ph",
"year_built": 1993
},
{
"address": "308 Live Oak Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "308-live-oak-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 335000,
"price_per_sqft": 180.89,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1852,
"sqft_delta": -7,
"subdivision": "Highland Oaks Estates Sec",
"year_built": 1973
},
{
"address": "220 W Mockingbird Ln",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "220-w-mockingbird-ln-harker-heights",
"price": 235000,
"price_per_sqft": 126.96,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1851,
"sqft_delta": -8,
"subdivision": "",
"year_built": 1975
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 1711 Lynx Circle, 308 Live Oak Drive, 220 W Mockingbird Ln, this new-construction card is $9/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 150.54,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 159.13,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": null,
"city": "Killeen",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 166,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 159.13,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2531,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 160738,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -37851,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 355,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 159.13,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2579,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 163632,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -34957,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 403,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 157.53,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2440,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 171929,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -26660,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 264,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 159.13,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2610,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 175825,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -22764,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 434,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 159.13,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2632,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 181601,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -16988,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 456,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 159.13,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2176,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 198589,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 159.13,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 641,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 343145,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 144556,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1535,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 2958,
"down_payment": 14643,
"effective_price": 292857,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 157.53,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 110,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 525,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2440,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 133857,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 171929,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 278214,
"monthly_mi": 139,
"monthly_pi": 1666,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1805,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 9000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 261176
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 295815,
"effective_price": 295815,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 159.13,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 111,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 530,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 641,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 304689,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 343145,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 9000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 59163,
"effective_price": 295815,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 159.13,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 111,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 530,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2176,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 160133,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 198589,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 236652,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1535,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1535,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 9000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 222159
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 14791,
"effective_price": 295815,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 159.13,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 111,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 530,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2632,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 143145,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 181601,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 281024,
"monthly_mi": 141,
"monthly_pi": 1851,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1991,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 9000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 264248
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 10354,
"effective_price": 295815,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 159.13,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 111,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 530,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2610,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 137369,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 175825,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 290457,
"monthly_mi": 133,
"monthly_pi": 1836,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1969,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 9000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 271900
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 295815,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 159.13,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 111,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 530,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2579,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 125176,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 163632,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 295815,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1938,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1938,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 9000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 278004
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 295815,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 159.13,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 111,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 530,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2531,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 122282,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 160738,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 302175,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1890,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1890,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 9000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 282541
}
}
},
"id": "aff1b5c07383",
"incentive_types": [
"closing_costs",
"price_reduction"
],
"negotiability_score": 79,
"original_price": 304815,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 295815,
"price_cut": 9000,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: closing-cost concession language, price reduction.",
"sqft": 1859,
"subdivision": "Goodnight Ranch Add",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "5019 Fence Line Trail",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 37.68,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 25.8,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "4114 Birch Boulevard",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "4114-birch-boulevard-temple",
"price": 310000,
"price_per_sqft": 146.02,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2123,
"sqft_delta": 0,
"subdivision": "Ramblewood 1st Unit",
"year_built": 1970
},
{
"address": "2711 Forest Trail",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "2711-forest-trail-temple",
"price": 256000,
"price_per_sqft": 120.75,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2120,
"sqft_delta": -3,
"subdivision": "Forest Hills 1st Ext",
"year_built": 1966
},
{
"address": "3314 Long Fellow Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "3314-long-fellow-drive-belton",
"price": 425000,
"price_per_sqft": 200.47,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2120,
"sqft_delta": -3,
"subdivision": "DAWSON RIDGE AMENDING PLAT",
"year_built": 2020
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 4114 Birch Boulevard, 2711 Forest Trail, 3314 Long Fellow Drive, this new-construction card is $38/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 146.02,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 183.7,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Nolanville",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 221,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 183.7,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3337,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 211910,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -49901,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 468,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 183.7,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3400,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 215725,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -46086,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 531,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 181.86,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3217,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 226663,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -35148,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 348,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 183.7,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3441,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 231800,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -30011,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 572,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 183.7,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3470,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 239416,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -22395,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 601,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 183.7,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2869,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 261811,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 183.7,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 845,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 452388,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 190577,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -2024,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 3900,
"down_payment": 19304,
"effective_price": 386090,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 181.86,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 145,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 692,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3217,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 176471,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 226663,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 366786,
"monthly_mi": 183,
"monthly_pi": 2197,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2380,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 74470,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 344322
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 389990,
"effective_price": 389990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 183.7,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 146,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 699,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 845,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 401690,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 452388,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 74470,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 77998,
"effective_price": 389990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 183.7,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 146,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 699,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2869,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 211112,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 261811,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 311992,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2024,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2024,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 74470,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 292885
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 19500,
"effective_price": 389990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 183.7,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 146,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 699,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3470,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 188717,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 239416,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 370490,
"monthly_mi": 185,
"monthly_pi": 2440,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2625,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 74470,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 348373
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 13650,
"effective_price": 389990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 183.7,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 146,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 699,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3441,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 181101,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 231800,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 382926,
"monthly_mi": 176,
"monthly_pi": 2420,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2596,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 74470,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 358461
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 389990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 183.7,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 146,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 699,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3400,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 165026,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 215725,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 389990,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2555,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2555,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 74470,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 366509
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 389990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 183.7,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 146,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 699,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3337,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 161211,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 211910,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 398375,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2492,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2492,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 74470,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 372491
}
}
},
"id": "05a6f37cdc13",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"price_reduction"
],
"negotiability_score": 79,
"original_price": 464460,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 389990,
"price_cut": 74470,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, price reduction.",
"sqft": 2123,
"subdivision": "Bella Charca Phase 12",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "5027 Fence Line Trail",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 5.27,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 2.58,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "3343 Bob White Lane",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "3343-bob-white-lane-belton",
"price": 798000,
"price_per_sqft": 356.73,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2237,
"sqft_delta": -2,
"subdivision": "Apache Point Rev",
"year_built": 1980
},
{
"address": "3306 Spring Canyon Road",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "3306-spring-canyon-road-belton",
"price": 459000,
"price_per_sqft": 204.64,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2243,
"sqft_delta": 4,
"subdivision": "Regatta Oaks Sub",
"year_built": 2013
},
{
"address": "203 Echo Village Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "203-echo-village-drive-temple",
"price": 275000,
"price_per_sqft": 123.1,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2234,
"sqft_delta": -5,
"subdivision": "Echo Village Ph Two",
"year_built": 2004
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 3343 Bob White Lane, 3306 Spring Canyon Road, 203 Echo Village Drive, this new-construction card is $5/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 204.64,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 209.91,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Nolanville",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 133,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 209.91,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4021,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 255380,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -60137,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 564,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 209.91,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4098,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 259978,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -55539,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 641,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 207.81,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3876,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 273159,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -42358,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 419,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 209.91,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4147,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 279350,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -36167,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 690,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 209.91,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4182,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 288528,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -26989,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 725,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 209.91,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3457,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 315517,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 209.91,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1018,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 545188,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 229671,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -2439,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 4700,
"down_payment": 23264,
"effective_price": 465290,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 207.81,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 174,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 834,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3876,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 212672,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 273159,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 442026,
"monthly_mi": 221,
"monthly_pi": 2647,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2868,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 41000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 414955
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 469990,
"effective_price": 469990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 209.91,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 176,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 842,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1018,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 484090,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 545188,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 41000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 93998,
"effective_price": 469990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 209.91,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 176,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 842,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3457,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 254418,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 315517,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 375992,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2439,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2439,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 41000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 352965
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 23500,
"effective_price": 469990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 209.91,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 176,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 842,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4182,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 227429,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 288528,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 446490,
"monthly_mi": 223,
"monthly_pi": 2941,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3164,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 41000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 419836
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 16450,
"effective_price": 469990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 209.91,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 176,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 842,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4147,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 218251,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 279350,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 461477,
"monthly_mi": 212,
"monthly_pi": 2917,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3128,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 41000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 431993
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 469990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 209.91,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 176,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 842,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4098,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 198879,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 259978,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 469990,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3080,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3080,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 41000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 441692
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 469990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 209.91,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 176,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 842,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4021,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 194281,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 255380,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 480095,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3003,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3003,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 41000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 448901
}
}
},
"id": "dc5711c74eee",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"price_reduction"
],
"negotiability_score": 79,
"original_price": 510990,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 469990,
"price_cut": 41000,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, price reduction.",
"sqft": 2239,
"subdivision": "Bella Charca Phase 12",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "2046 Gray Fox Drive",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 82.49,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 59.96,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "1808 N Beal Street",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1808-n-beal-street-belton",
"price": 299900,
"price_per_sqft": 129.38,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2318,
"sqft_delta": -4,
"subdivision": "Oakdale",
"year_built": 1967
},
{
"address": "713 Bighorn Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "713-bighorn-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 320000,
"price_per_sqft": 137.58,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 2326,
"sqft_delta": 4,
"subdivision": "Skipcha Mountain Estates Ph",
"year_built": 2005
},
{
"address": "4405 Pawnee Trail",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "4405-pawnee-trail-harker-heights",
"price": 330000,
"price_per_sqft": 142.36,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 2318,
"sqft_delta": -4,
"subdivision": "Broken Arrow Lake Estates Sec",
"year_built": 1971
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 1808 N Beal Street, 713 Bighorn Drive, 4405 Pawnee Trail, this new-construction card is $82/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 137.58,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 220.07,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Nolanville",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 137,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 220.07,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4372,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 277663,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -65385,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 613,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 220.07,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4456,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 282662,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -60386,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 697,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 217.87,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4215,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 296995,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -46053,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 456,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 220.07,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4508,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 303725,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -39323,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 749,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 220.07,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4547,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 313704,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -29344,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 788,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 220.07,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3759,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 343048,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 220.07,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1107,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 592760,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 249712,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -2652,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 5110,
"down_payment": 25294,
"effective_price": 505890,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 217.87,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 190,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 906,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4215,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 231229,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 296995,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 480596,
"monthly_mi": 240,
"monthly_pi": 2878,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3119,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 49973,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 451162
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 511000,
"effective_price": 511000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 220.07,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 192,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 916,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1107,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 526330,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 592760,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 49973,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 102200,
"effective_price": 511000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 220.07,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 192,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 916,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3759,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 276618,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 343048,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 408800,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2651,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2651,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 49973,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 383764
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 25550,
"effective_price": 511000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 220.07,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 192,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 916,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4547,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 247274,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 313704,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 485450,
"monthly_mi": 243,
"monthly_pi": 3197,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3440,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 49973,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 456470
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 17885,
"effective_price": 511000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 220.07,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 192,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 916,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4508,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 237295,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 303725,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 501745,
"monthly_mi": 230,
"monthly_pi": 3171,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3401,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 49973,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 469688
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 511000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 220.07,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 192,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 916,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4456,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 216232,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 282662,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 511000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3348,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3348,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 49973,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 480233
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 511000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 220.07,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 192,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 916,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4372,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 211233,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 277663,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 521986,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3265,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3265,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 49973,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 488071
}
}
},
"id": "e54040bb611a",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"price_reduction"
],
"negotiability_score": 79,
"original_price": 560973,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 511000,
"price_cut": 49973,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, price reduction.",
"sqft": 2322,
"subdivision": "Bella Charca Phase 11",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "6919 Cherry Laurel",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": -26.55,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": -9.86,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "3900 Chisholm Trail",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "3900-chisholm-trail-salado",
"price": 525000,
"price_per_sqft": 189.8,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2766,
"sqft_delta": -15,
"subdivision": "The Highlands Of Mill Creek Se",
"year_built": 1996
},
{
"address": "10015 Hodge Canyon Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "10015-hodge-canyon-drive-salado",
"price": 765000,
"price_per_sqft": 269.27,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2841,
"sqft_delta": 60,
"subdivision": "The Woods Of Salado",
"year_built": 1998
},
{
"address": "1410 E Creekview Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "1410-e-creekview-drive-salado",
"price": 1237000,
"price_per_sqft": 434.95,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2844,
"sqft_delta": 63,
"subdivision": "Hidden Springs",
"year_built": 2021
}
],
"favorable": true,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 3900 Chisholm Trail, 10015 Hodge Canyon Drive, 1410 E Creekview Drive, this new-construction card is $27/sqft cheaper on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 269.27,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 242.72,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": null,
"city": "Salado",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 294,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 242.72,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5775,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 366776,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -86370,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 810,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 242.72,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5885,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 373380,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -79766,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 920,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 240.29,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5567,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 392312,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -60834,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 602,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 242.72,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5955,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 401202,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -51944,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 990,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 242.72,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6006,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 414384,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -38762,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 1041,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 242.72,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4965,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 453146,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 242.72,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1462,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 783000,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 329854,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -3503,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 6750,
"down_payment": 33412,
"effective_price": 668250,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 240.29,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 251,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1197,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5567,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 305439,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 392312,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 634838,
"monthly_mi": 317,
"monthly_pi": 3802,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4120,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 62230,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 595958
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 675000,
"effective_price": 675000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 242.72,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 253,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1209,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1462,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 695250,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 783000,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 62230,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 135000,
"effective_price": 675000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 242.72,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 253,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1209,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4965,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 365396,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 453146,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 540000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3502,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3502,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 62230,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 506929
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 33750,
"effective_price": 675000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 242.72,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 253,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1209,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6006,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 326634,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 414384,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 641250,
"monthly_mi": 321,
"monthly_pi": 4223,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4544,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 62230,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 602969
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 23625,
"effective_price": 675000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 242.72,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 253,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1209,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5955,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 313452,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 401202,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 662774,
"monthly_mi": 304,
"monthly_pi": 4189,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4493,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 62230,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 620429
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 675000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 242.72,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 253,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1209,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5885,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 285630,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 373380,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 675000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 4423,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4423,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 62230,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 634359
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 675000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 242.72,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 253,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1209,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5775,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 279026,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 366776,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 689512,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 4313,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4313,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 62230,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 644712
}
}
},
"id": "ed35ac81d131",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"price_reduction"
],
"negotiability_score": 79,
"original_price": 737230,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 675000,
"price_cut": 62230,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, price reduction.",
"sqft": 2781,
"subdivision": "",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "1311 Lone Pine Way",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 27.58,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 20.7,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "3908 Lakecliff Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "3908-lakecliff-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 174900,
"price_per_sqft": 133.21,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1313,
"sqft_delta": 7,
"subdivision": "Cherokee Lane",
"year_built": 1996
},
{
"address": "104 W Beeline Lane",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "104-w-beeline-lane-harker-heights",
"price": 180000,
"price_per_sqft": 141.18,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1275,
"sqft_delta": -31,
"subdivision": "Meadow Acres 1st Ext",
"year_built": 1961
},
{
"address": "1602 Indian Trail",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1602-indian-trail-harker-heights",
"price": 165000,
"price_per_sqft": 122.04,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1352,
"sqft_delta": 46,
"subdivision": "Comanche Land 1st Unit",
"year_built": 1982
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 3908 Lakecliff Drive, 104 W Beeline Lane, 1602 Indian Trail, this new-construction card is $28/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 133.21,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 160.79,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "BFF Construction LLC",
"city": "Killeen",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 69,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 160.79,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1797,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 114103,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -26869,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 252,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 160.79,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1831,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 116157,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -24815,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 286,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 159.18,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1732,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 122047,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -18925,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 187,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 160.79,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1853,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 124813,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -16159,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 308,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 160.79,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1869,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 128913,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -12059,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 324,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 160.79,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1545,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 140972,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 160.79,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 455,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 243588,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 102616,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1090,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 2100,
"down_payment": 10394,
"effective_price": 207890,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 159.18,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 78,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 372,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1732,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 95021,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 122047,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 197496,
"monthly_mi": 99,
"monthly_pi": 1183,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1282,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 8000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 185400
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 209990,
"effective_price": 209990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 160.79,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 79,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 376,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 455,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 216290,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 243588,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 8000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 41998,
"effective_price": 209990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 160.79,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 79,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 376,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1545,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 113673,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 140972,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 167992,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1090,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1090,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 8000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 157704
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 10500,
"effective_price": 209990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 160.79,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 79,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 376,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1869,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 101615,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 128913,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 199490,
"monthly_mi": 100,
"monthly_pi": 1314,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1414,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 8000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 187581
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 7350,
"effective_price": 209990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 160.79,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 79,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 376,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1853,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 97514,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 124813,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 206187,
"monthly_mi": 95,
"monthly_pi": 1303,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1398,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 8000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 193013
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 209990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 160.79,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 79,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 376,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1831,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 88858,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 116157,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 209990,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1376,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1376,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 8000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 197347
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 209990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 160.79,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 79,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 376,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1797,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 86804,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 114103,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 214505,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1342,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1342,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 8000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 200567
}
}
},
"id": "1fa98c9bbc7e",
"incentive_types": [
"lender_credit",
"preferred_lender",
"price_reduction"
],
"negotiability_score": 78,
"original_price": 217990,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 209990,
"price_cut": 8000,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: lender-credit language, preferred-lender requirement, price reduction.",
"sqft": 1306,
"subdivision": "",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "3104 Goblin Drive",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 21.66,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 14.02,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "604 Totem Trail",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "604-totem-trail-harker-heights",
"price": 248000,
"price_per_sqft": 163.91,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1513,
"sqft_delta": 13,
"subdivision": "Skipcha Mountain Estates Ph",
"year_built": 1995
},
{
"address": "1100 Chablis Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1100-chablis-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 220000,
"price_per_sqft": 143.51,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1533,
"sqft_delta": 33,
"subdivision": "The Vineyard",
"year_built": 1994
},
{
"address": "2010 Shadow Ridge Road",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "2010-shadow-ridge-road-harker-heights",
"price": 238500,
"price_per_sqft": 154.47,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1544,
"sqft_delta": 44,
"subdivision": "Whitten Place",
"year_built": 1993
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 604 Totem Trail, 1100 Chablis Drive, 2010 Shadow Ridge Road, this new-construction card is $22/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 154.47,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 176.13,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": null,
"city": "Killeen",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 92,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.13,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2260,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 143554,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -33804,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 317,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.13,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2304,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 146138,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -31220,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 361,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.37,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2179,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 153548,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -23810,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 236,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.13,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2331,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 157028,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -20330,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 388,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.13,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2351,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 162187,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -15171,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 408,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.13,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1943,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 177358,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.13,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 572,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 306460,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 129102,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1371,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 2642,
"down_payment": 13077,
"effective_price": 261548,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.37,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 98,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 469,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2179,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 119547,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 153548,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 248471,
"monthly_mi": 124,
"monthly_pi": 1488,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1612,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 233254
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 264190,
"effective_price": 264190,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.13,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 99,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 473,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 572,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 272116,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 306460,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 52838,
"effective_price": 264190,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.13,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 99,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 473,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1943,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 143013,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 177358,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 211352,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1371,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1371,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 198408
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 13210,
"effective_price": 264190,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.13,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 99,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 473,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2351,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 127842,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 162187,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 250980,
"monthly_mi": 125,
"monthly_pi": 1653,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1778,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 235998
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 9247,
"effective_price": 264190,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.13,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 99,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 473,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2331,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 122683,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 157028,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 259405,
"monthly_mi": 119,
"monthly_pi": 1640,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1759,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 242831
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 264190,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.13,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 99,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 473,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2304,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 111793,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 146138,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 264190,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1731,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1731,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 248283
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 264190,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.13,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 99,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 473,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2260,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 109209,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 143554,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 269870,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1688,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1688,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 252335
}
}
},
"id": "a519872ac7d1",
"incentive_types": [
"closing_costs",
"fixed_rate",
"preferred_lender"
],
"negotiability_score": 78,
"original_price": 264190,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 264190,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: closing-cost concession language, fixed-rate incentive, preferred-lender requirement.",
"sqft": 1500,
"subdivision": "Goodnight Ranch Add",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "4216 Lugard Drive",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 32.68,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 20.87,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "4005 Lakecliff Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "4005-lakecliff-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 239000,
"price_per_sqft": 171.2,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1396,
"sqft_delta": -1,
"subdivision": "Cherokee Lane",
"year_built": 1995
},
{
"address": "304 Blackfoot Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "304-blackfoot-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 219900,
"price_per_sqft": 156.62,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1404,
"sqft_delta": 7,
"subdivision": "Skipcha Mountain Estates Ph",
"year_built": 1988
},
{
"address": "1102 Chablis Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1102-chablis-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 214900,
"price_per_sqft": 154.83,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1388,
"sqft_delta": -9,
"subdivision": "The Vineyard",
"year_built": 1994
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 4005 Lakecliff Drive, 304 Blackfoot Drive, 1102 Chablis Drive, this new-construction card is $33/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 156.62,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 189.3,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": null,
"city": "Killeen",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 94,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 189.3,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2263,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 143695,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -33837,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 318,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 189.3,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2306,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 146282,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -31250,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 361,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 187.41,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2181,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 153700,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -23832,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 236,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 189.3,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2333,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 157182,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -20350,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 388,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 189.3,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2353,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 162346,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -15186,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 408,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 189.3,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1945,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 177532,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 189.3,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 573,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 306762,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 129230,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1372,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 2644,
"down_payment": 13090,
"effective_price": 261806,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 187.41,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 98,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 469,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2181,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 119665,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 153700,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 248716,
"monthly_mi": 124,
"monthly_pi": 1490,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1614,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 500,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 233484
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 264450,
"effective_price": 264450,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 189.3,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 99,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 474,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 573,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 272384,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 306762,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 500,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 52890,
"effective_price": 264450,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 189.3,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 99,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 474,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1945,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 143154,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 177532,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 211560,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1372,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1372,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 500,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 198603
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 13222,
"effective_price": 264450,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 189.3,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 99,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 474,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2353,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 127968,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 162346,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 251228,
"monthly_mi": 126,
"monthly_pi": 1655,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1780,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 500,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 236230
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 9256,
"effective_price": 264450,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 189.3,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 99,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 474,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2333,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 122804,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 157182,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 259660,
"monthly_mi": 119,
"monthly_pi": 1641,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1760,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 500,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 243070
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 264450,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 189.3,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 99,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 474,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2306,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 111903,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 146282,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 264450,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1733,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1733,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 500,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 248528
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 264450,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 189.3,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 99,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 474,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2263,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 109316,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 143695,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 270136,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1690,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1690,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 500,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 252584
}
}
},
"id": "66746aaf0457",
"incentive_types": [
"price_reduction",
"rate_buydown"
],
"negotiability_score": 78,
"original_price": 264950,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 264450,
"price_cut": 500,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: price reduction, rate buydown language.",
"sqft": 1397,
"subdivision": "Yowell Ranch Ph Vii",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "3701 Southern Catalpa Drive",
"apr": "6.23%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 20.31,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 12.51,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "1705 Lynx Circle",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1705-lynx-circle-harker-heights",
"price": 269900,
"price_per_sqft": 162.39,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1662,
"sqft_delta": 5,
"subdivision": "Country Trails Add 6th Ph",
"year_built": 1992
},
{
"address": "2006 Longmeadow Road",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "2006-longmeadow-road-harker-heights",
"price": 314900,
"price_per_sqft": 191.31,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1646,
"sqft_delta": -11,
"subdivision": "Whitten Place",
"year_built": 1988
},
{
"address": "1706 Lynx Circle",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1706-lynx-circle-harker-heights",
"price": 255000,
"price_per_sqft": 155.39,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1641,
"sqft_delta": -16,
"subdivision": "Country Trails Add 6th Ph",
"year_built": 1987
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 1705 Lynx Circle, 2006 Longmeadow Road, 1706 Lynx Circle, this new-construction card is $20/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 162.39,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 182.7,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Killeen",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 92,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 182.7,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2590,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 164501,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -38737,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 363,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 182.7,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2640,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 167462,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -35776,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 413,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 180.88,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2497,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 175954,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -27284,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 270,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 182.7,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2671,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 179941,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -23297,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 444,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 182.7,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2694,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 185853,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -17385,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 467,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 182.7,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2227,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 203238,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 182.7,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 656,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 351178,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 147940,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1571,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 3027,
"down_payment": 14986,
"effective_price": 299713,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 180.88,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 112,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 537,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2497,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 136991,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 175954,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 284727,
"monthly_mi": 142,
"monthly_pi": 1705,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1848,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 267290
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 302740,
"effective_price": 302740,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 182.7,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 114,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 542,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 656,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 311822,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 351178,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 60548,
"effective_price": 302740,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 182.7,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 114,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 542,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2227,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 163881,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 203238,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 242192,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1571,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1571,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 227359
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 15137,
"effective_price": 302740,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 182.7,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 114,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 542,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2694,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 146497,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 185853,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 287603,
"monthly_mi": 144,
"monthly_pi": 1894,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2038,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 270434
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 10596,
"effective_price": 302740,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 182.7,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 114,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 542,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2671,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 140585,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 179941,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 297257,
"monthly_mi": 136,
"monthly_pi": 1879,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2015,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 278265
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 302740,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 182.7,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 114,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 542,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2640,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 128106,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 167462,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 302740,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1984,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1984,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 284512
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 302740,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 182.7,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 114,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 542,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2590,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 125144,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 164501,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 309249,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1934,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1934,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 289156
}
}
},
"id": "2c01aed748c9",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"preferred_lender",
"rate_buydown"
],
"negotiability_score": 78,
"original_price": 302740,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 302740,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": "2.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, preferred-lender requirement, rate buydown language.",
"sqft": 1657,
"subdivision": "Preserve at Thousand Oaks",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "6625 King Oaks Boulevard",
"apr": "5.775%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 13.49,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 6.41,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "1250 E Creekview Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "1250-e-creekview-drive-salado",
"price": 910000,
"price_per_sqft": 295.84,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 3076,
"sqft_delta": -6,
"subdivision": "Hidden Spgs Sec One",
"year_built": 2021
},
{
"address": "1708 Meadow Crest Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "1708-meadow-crest-drive-salado",
"price": 600000,
"price_per_sqft": 197.17,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 3043,
"sqft_delta": -39,
"subdivision": "Mill Crk Spgs Ph X",
"year_built": 2021
},
{
"address": "7511 N Lakeview Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "7511-n-lakeview-drive-salado",
"price": 640000,
"price_per_sqft": 210.39,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 3042,
"sqft_delta": -40,
"subdivision": "The Woods Of Salado",
"year_built": 1994
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 1250 E Creekview Drive, 1708 Meadow Crest Drive, 7511 N Lakeview Drive, this new-construction card is $13/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 210.39,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 223.88,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Salado",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 62,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 223.88,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5904,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 374927,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -88289,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 829,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 223.88,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6016,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 381677,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -81539,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 941,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 221.64,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5691,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 401030,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -62186,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 616,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 223.88,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6088,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 410118,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -53098,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 1013,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 223.88,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6140,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 423592,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -39624,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 1065,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 223.88,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5075,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 463216,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 223.88,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1495,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 800400,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 337184,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -3580,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 6900,
"down_payment": 34155,
"effective_price": 683100,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 221.64,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 256,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1224,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5691,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 312227,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 401030,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 648945,
"monthly_mi": 324,
"monthly_pi": 3887,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4211,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 21349,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 609202
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 690000,
"effective_price": 690000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 223.88,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 259,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1236,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1495,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 710700,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 800400,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 21349,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 138000,
"effective_price": 690000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 223.88,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 259,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1236,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5075,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 373516,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 463216,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 552000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3580,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3580,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 21349,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 518194
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 34500,
"effective_price": 690000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 223.88,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 259,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1236,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6140,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 333892,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 423592,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 655500,
"monthly_mi": 328,
"monthly_pi": 4317,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4645,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 21349,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 616369
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 24150,
"effective_price": 690000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 223.88,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 259,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1236,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6088,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 320418,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 410118,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 677502,
"monthly_mi": 311,
"monthly_pi": 4282,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4593,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 21349,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 634217
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 690000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 223.88,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 259,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1236,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6016,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 291977,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 381677,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 690000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 4521,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4521,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 21349,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 648456
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 690000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 223.88,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 259,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1236,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5904,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 285227,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 374927,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 704835,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 4409,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4409,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 21349,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 659039
}
}
},
"id": "eb1b1b3cd076",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"price_reduction"
],
"negotiability_score": 78,
"original_price": 711349,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 690000,
"price_cut": 21349,
"rate": "4.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, price reduction.",
"sqft": 3082,
"subdivision": "King Oaks",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "3707 Southern Catalpa Drive",
"apr": "5.775%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 33.46,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 21.36,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "604 Totem Trail",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "604-totem-trail-harker-heights",
"price": 248000,
"price_per_sqft": 163.91,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1513,
"sqft_delta": 40,
"subdivision": "Skipcha Mountain Estates Ph",
"year_built": 1995
},
{
"address": "1100 Chablis Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1100-chablis-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 220000,
"price_per_sqft": 143.51,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1533,
"sqft_delta": 60,
"subdivision": "The Vineyard",
"year_built": 1994
},
{
"address": "304 Blackfoot Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "304-blackfoot-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 219900,
"price_per_sqft": 156.62,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1404,
"sqft_delta": -69,
"subdivision": "Skipcha Mountain Estates Ph",
"year_built": 1988
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 604 Totem Trail, 1100 Chablis Drive, 304 Blackfoot Drive, this new-construction card is $33/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 156.62,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 190.08,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Killeen",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 42,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 190.08,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2396,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 152139,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -35826,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 337,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 190.08,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2441,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 154878,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -33087,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 382,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 188.18,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2309,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 162731,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -25234,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 250,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 190.08,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2470,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 166419,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -21546,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 411,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 190.08,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2491,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 171886,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -16079,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 432,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 190.08,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2059,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 187965,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 190.08,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 607,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 324788,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 136823,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1452,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 2800,
"down_payment": 13860,
"effective_price": 277190,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 188.18,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 104,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 497,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2309,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 126696,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 162731,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 263330,
"monthly_mi": 132,
"monthly_pi": 1577,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1709,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 3100,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 247203
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 279990,
"effective_price": 279990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 190.08,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 105,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 502,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 607,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 288390,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 324788,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 3100,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 55998,
"effective_price": 279990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 190.08,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 105,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 502,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2059,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 151566,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 187965,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 223992,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1453,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1453,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 3100,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 210274
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 14000,
"effective_price": 279990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 190.08,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 105,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 502,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2491,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 135488,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 171886,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 265990,
"monthly_mi": 133,
"monthly_pi": 1752,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1885,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 3100,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 250112
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 9800,
"effective_price": 279990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 190.08,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 105,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 502,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2470,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 130020,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 166419,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 274919,
"monthly_mi": 126,
"monthly_pi": 1738,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1864,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 3100,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 257354
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 279990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 190.08,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 105,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 502,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2441,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 118479,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 154878,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 279990,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1835,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1835,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 3100,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 263132
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 279990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 190.08,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 105,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 502,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2396,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 115740,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 152139,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 286010,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1789,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1789,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 3100,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 267427
}
}
},
"id": "1b0df24040e7",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"preferred_lender",
"price_reduction"
],
"negotiability_score": 77,
"original_price": 283090,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 279990,
"price_cut": 3100,
"rate": "4.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, preferred-lender requirement, price reduction.",
"sqft": 1473,
"subdivision": "Preserve at Thousand Oaks",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "1858 Horatio Street",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 3.65,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 2.16,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "1607 Black Kettle Trail",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1607-black-kettle-trail-temple",
"price": 268000,
"price_per_sqft": 150.82,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1777,
"sqft_delta": 0,
"subdivision": "Prairie Ridge Ph I",
"year_built": 2021
},
{
"address": "2036 Clear Sky Court",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "2036-clear-sky-court-temple",
"price": 349990,
"price_per_sqft": 196.73,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1779,
"sqft_delta": 2,
"subdivision": "Mesa Rdg Ph II",
"year_built": 2022
},
{
"address": "5805 Butterfly Ct.",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "5805-butterfly-ct-temple",
"price": 299500,
"price_per_sqft": 168.83,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1774,
"sqft_delta": -3,
"subdivision": "Bentwood Phase IV",
"year_built": 2009
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 1607 Black Kettle Trail, 2036 Clear Sky Court, 5805 Butterfly Ct., this new-construction card is $4/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 168.83,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 172.48,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Jerry Wright Homes",
"city": "Nolanville",
"closing_credit": 15000,
"dom": 142,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.48,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2622,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 157349,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -39218,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 368,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.48,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2672,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 160347,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -36220,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 418,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.48,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2704,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 172981,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -23586,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 450,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.48,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2554,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 173746,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -22821,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 300,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.48,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2727,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 178966,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -17601,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 473,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.48,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2254,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 196567,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.48,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 664,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 346345,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 149778,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1590,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 15325,
"effective_price": 306500,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.48,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 115,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 549,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2554,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 133901,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 173746,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 291175,
"monthly_mi": 146,
"monthly_pi": 1744,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1889,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 273343
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 306500,
"effective_price": 306500,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.48,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 115,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 549,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 664,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 306500,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 346345,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 61300,
"effective_price": 306500,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.48,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 115,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 549,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2254,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 156722,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 196567,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 245200,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1590,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1590,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 230183
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 15325,
"effective_price": 306500,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.48,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 115,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 549,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2727,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 139121,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 178966,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 291175,
"monthly_mi": 146,
"monthly_pi": 1918,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2063,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 273793
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 10728,
"effective_price": 306500,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.48,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 115,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 549,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2704,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 133136,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 172981,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 300949,
"monthly_mi": 138,
"monthly_pi": 1902,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2040,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 281721
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 306500,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.48,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 115,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 549,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2672,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 120502,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 160347,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 306500,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2008,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2008,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 288046
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 306500,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.48,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 115,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 549,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2622,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 117504,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 157349,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 313090,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1958,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1958,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 292747
}
}
},
"id": "d087a5065d74",
"incentive_types": [
"preferred_lender",
"rate_buydown"
],
"negotiability_score": 77,
"original_price": 321500,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 321500,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: preferred-lender requirement, rate buydown language.",
"sqft": 1777,
"subdivision": "Warriors Legacy Ph 2-C",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "6830 Lacey Oak Road",
"apr": "5.775%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": -2.92,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": -1.28,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "8841 Brewer Lane",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "8841-brewer-lane-salado",
"price": 1200000,
"price_per_sqft": 360.04,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 3333,
"sqft_delta": -9,
"subdivision": "",
"year_built": 2000
},
{
"address": "8219 Collins Creek Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "8219-collins-creek-drive-salado",
"price": 750000,
"price_per_sqft": 227.34,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 3299,
"sqft_delta": -43,
"subdivision": "Spring Crk",
"year_built": 2019
},
{
"address": "2422 Smith Bluff Road",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "2422-smith-bluff-road-salado",
"price": 575000,
"price_per_sqft": 176.6,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 3256,
"sqft_delta": -86,
"subdivision": "Mill Creek Sec 14",
"year_built": 1986
}
],
"favorable": true,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 8841 Brewer Lane, 8219 Collins Creek Drive, 2422 Smith Bluff Road, this new-construction card is $3/sqft cheaper on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 227.34,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 224.42,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Salado",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 43,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 224.42,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6417,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 407529,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -95966,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 900,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 224.42,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6539,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 414867,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -88628,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 1022,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 222.17,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6186,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 435902,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -67593,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 669,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 224.42,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6617,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 445780,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -57715,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 1100,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 224.42,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6674,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 460427,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -43068,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 1157,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 224.42,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5517,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 503495,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 224.42,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1625,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 870000,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 366505,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -3892,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 7500,
"down_payment": 37125,
"effective_price": 742500,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 222.17,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 278,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1330,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6186,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 339377,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 435902,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 705375,
"monthly_mi": 353,
"monthly_pi": 4225,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4577,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 9442,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 662176
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 750000,
"effective_price": 750000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 224.42,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 281,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1344,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1625,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 772500,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 870000,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 9442,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 150000,
"effective_price": 750000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 224.42,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 281,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1344,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5517,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 405995,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 503495,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 600000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3892,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3892,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 9442,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 563254
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 37500,
"effective_price": 750000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 224.42,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 281,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1344,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6674,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 362927,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 460427,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 712500,
"monthly_mi": 356,
"monthly_pi": 4693,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 5049,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 9442,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 669966
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 26250,
"effective_price": 750000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 224.42,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 281,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1344,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6617,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 348280,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 445780,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 736416,
"monthly_mi": 338,
"monthly_pi": 4655,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4992,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 9442,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 689366
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 750000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 224.42,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 281,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1344,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6539,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 317367,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 414867,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 750000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 4914,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4914,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 9442,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 704843
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 750000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 224.42,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 281,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1344,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6417,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 310029,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 407529,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 766125,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 4792,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4792,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 9442,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 716347
}
}
},
"id": "179452704468",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"preferred_lender",
"price_reduction"
],
"negotiability_score": 77,
"original_price": 759442,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 750000,
"price_cut": 9442,
"rate": "4.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, preferred-lender requirement, price reduction.",
"sqft": 3342,
"subdivision": "King Oaks",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "727 Liberty Park Drive",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 34.06,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 24.6,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "13273 Estate Trail",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "13273-estate-trail-belton",
"price": 257000,
"price_per_sqft": 138.47,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-0-500.csv",
"sqft": 1856,
"sqft_delta": 7,
"subdivision": "Temple Park Estates",
"year_built": 1983
},
{
"address": "129 Bremond",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "129-bremond-belton",
"price": 89964,
"price_per_sqft": 48.37,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1860,
"sqft_delta": 11,
"subdivision": "Shiloh Terrace Ph One",
"year_built": 2003
},
{
"address": "1419 Loving Trail",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "1419-loving-trail-belton",
"price": 365000,
"price_per_sqft": 195.92,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1863,
"sqft_delta": 14,
"subdivision": "Dawson Ranch Sec I Ph I",
"year_built": 2006
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 13273 Estate Trail, 129 Bremond, 1419 Loving Trail, this new-construction card is $34/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 138.47,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 172.53,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Nirmaan Builders LLC",
"city": "Belton",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 85,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.53,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2729,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 173336,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -40817,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 383,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.53,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2781,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 176457,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -37696,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 435,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 170.8,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2631,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 185404,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -28749,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 285,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.53,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2815,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 189605,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -24548,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 469,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.53,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2839,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 195835,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -18318,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 493,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.53,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2346,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 214153,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.53,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 691,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 370040,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 155887,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1655,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 3190,
"down_payment": 15790,
"effective_price": 315810,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 170.8,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 118,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 566,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2631,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 144348,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 185404,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 300020,
"monthly_mi": 150,
"monthly_pi": 1797,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1947,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 281645
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 319000,
"effective_price": 319000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.53,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 120,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 572,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 691,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 328570,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 370040,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 63800,
"effective_price": 319000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.53,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 120,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 572,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2346,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 172683,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 214153,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 255200,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1655,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1655,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 239571
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 15950,
"effective_price": 319000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.53,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 120,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 572,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2839,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 154365,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 195835,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 303050,
"monthly_mi": 152,
"monthly_pi": 1996,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2147,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 284959
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 11165,
"effective_price": 319000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.53,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 120,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 572,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2815,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 148135,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 189605,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 313222,
"monthly_mi": 144,
"monthly_pi": 1980,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2123,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 293210
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 319000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.53,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 120,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 572,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2781,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 134987,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 176457,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 319000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2090,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2090,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 299793
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 319000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.53,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 120,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 572,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2729,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 131866,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 173336,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 325858,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2038,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2038,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 304686
}
}
},
"id": "dbf3dcec884c",
"incentive_types": [
"closing_costs",
"exclusive_savings",
"preferred_lender",
"rate_buydown"
],
"negotiability_score": 76,
"original_price": 236900,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 319000,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: closing-cost concession language, limited incentive language, preferred-lender requirement, rate buydown language.",
"sqft": 1849,
"subdivision": "Liberty Park",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "4707 Allison Drive",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": -21.11,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": -11.34,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "3632 North Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "3632-north-drive-belton",
"price": 459900,
"price_per_sqft": 237.43,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1937,
"sqft_delta": -1,
"subdivision": "Pine Terrace Sub",
"year_built": 1996
},
{
"address": "2611 Settlers Oak Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "2611-settlers-oak-drive-belton",
"price": 285000,
"price_per_sqft": 147.52,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1932,
"sqft_delta": -6,
"subdivision": "Hubbard Branch Add Ph",
"year_built": 2021
},
{
"address": "3001 RIVER PLACE Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "3001-river-place-drive-belton",
"price": 359000,
"price_per_sqft": 186.11,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1929,
"sqft_delta": -9,
"subdivision": "RIVER PLACE",
"year_built": 1993
}
],
"favorable": true,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 3632 North Drive, 2611 Settlers Oak Drive, 3001 RIVER PLACE Drive, this new-construction card is $21/sqft cheaper on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 186.11,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 165.0,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Tippit Homes",
"city": "Belton",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 294,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 165.0,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2736,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 173754,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -40916,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 384,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 165.0,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2788,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 176883,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -37787,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 436,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 163.35,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2637,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 185851,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -28819,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 285,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 165.0,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2821,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 190063,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -24607,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 469,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 165.0,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2845,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 196307,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -18363,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 493,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 165.0,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2352,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 214670,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 165.0,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 693,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 370933,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 156263,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1659,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 3198,
"down_payment": 15829,
"effective_price": 316572,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 163.35,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 119,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 567,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2637,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 144696,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 185851,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 300743,
"monthly_mi": 150,
"monthly_pi": 1801,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1952,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 282325
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 319770,
"effective_price": 319770,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 165.0,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 120,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 573,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 693,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 329363,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 370933,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 63954,
"effective_price": 319770,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 165.0,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 120,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 573,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2352,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 173100,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 214670,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 255816,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1659,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1659,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 240149
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 15988,
"effective_price": 319770,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 165.0,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 120,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 573,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2845,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 154737,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 196307,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 303782,
"monthly_mi": 152,
"monthly_pi": 2001,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2153,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 285647
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 11192,
"effective_price": 319770,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 165.0,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 120,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 573,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2821,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 148493,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 190063,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 313978,
"monthly_mi": 144,
"monthly_pi": 1985,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2128,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 293918
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 319770,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 165.0,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 120,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 573,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2788,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 135312,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 176883,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 319770,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2095,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2095,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 300517
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 319770,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 165.0,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 120,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 573,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2736,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 132184,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 173754,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 326645,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2043,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2043,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 305422
}
}
},
"id": "919d8edb896d",
"incentive_types": [
"builder_concession",
"closing_costs",
"title_policy_survey"
],
"negotiability_score": 75,
"original_price": 319770,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 319770,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: builder concession language, closing-cost concession language, title policy or survey language.",
"sqft": 1938,
"subdivision": "Three Creeks",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "3202 Privet Drive",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 38.04,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 35.77,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "2612 Laguna Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "2612-laguna-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 300000,
"price_per_sqft": 134.41,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 2232,
"sqft_delta": 1,
"subdivision": "Skipcha Mt. Est",
"year_built": 2009
},
{
"address": "1515 Mountain Laurel",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1515-mountain-laurel-harker-heights",
"price": 236500,
"price_per_sqft": 106.34,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 2224,
"sqft_delta": -7,
"subdivision": "Briarwood Estates Ph Two",
"year_built": 1996
},
{
"address": "1708 Redwood Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1708-redwood-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 225000,
"price_per_sqft": 101.21,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 2223,
"sqft_delta": -8,
"subdivision": "Highland Oaks Estates Sec",
"year_built": 1977
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 2612 Laguna Drive, 1515 Mountain Laurel, 1708 Redwood Drive, this new-construction card is $38/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 106.34,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 144.38,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": null,
"city": "Killeen",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 93,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 144.38,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2756,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 175028,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -41217,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 387,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 144.38,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2809,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 178180,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -38065,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 440,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 142.94,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2657,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 187214,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -29031,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 288,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 144.38,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2842,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 191457,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -24788,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 473,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 144.38,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2866,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 197747,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -18498,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 497,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 144.38,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2369,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 216245,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 144.38,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 698,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 373653,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 157408,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1671,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 3221,
"down_payment": 15945,
"effective_price": 318894,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 142.94,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 120,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 571,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2657,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 145758,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 187214,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 302949,
"monthly_mi": 151,
"monthly_pi": 1814,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1966,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 284396
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 322115,
"effective_price": 322115,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 144.38,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 121,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 577,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 698,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 331778,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 373653,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 64423,
"effective_price": 322115,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 144.38,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 121,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 577,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2369,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 174370,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 216245,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 257692,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1671,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1671,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 241910
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 16106,
"effective_price": 322115,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 144.38,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 121,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 577,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2866,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 155872,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 197747,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 306009,
"monthly_mi": 153,
"monthly_pi": 2015,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2168,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 287741
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 11274,
"effective_price": 322115,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 144.38,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 121,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 577,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2842,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 149582,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 191457,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 316281,
"monthly_mi": 145,
"monthly_pi": 1999,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2144,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 296073
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 322115,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 144.38,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 121,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 577,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2809,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 136305,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 178180,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 322115,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2111,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2111,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 302721
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 322115,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 144.38,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 121,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 577,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2756,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 133154,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 175028,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 329040,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2058,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2058,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 307661
}
}
},
"id": "25935d0fbd83",
"incentive_types": [
"builder_concession",
"closing_costs",
"rate_buydown"
],
"negotiability_score": 74,
"original_price": 322115,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 322115,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: builder concession language, closing-cost concession language, rate buydown language.",
"sqft": 2231,
"subdivision": "Goodnight Ranch",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "2041 Mercer Street",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 17.58,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 11.87,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "2601 Arno Street",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "2601-arno-street-harker-heights",
"price": 345000,
"price_per_sqft": 176.29,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1957,
"sqft_delta": 1,
"subdivision": "Cedarbrook Ridge Ph I Amd",
"year_built": 2018
},
{
"address": "3005 Sun Dance Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "3005-sun-dance-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 277000,
"price_per_sqft": 141.47,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1958,
"sqft_delta": 2,
"subdivision": "Skipcha Mountain Estates Ph",
"year_built": 2003
},
{
"address": "604 Arapaho Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "604-arapaho-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 289900,
"price_per_sqft": 148.06,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1958,
"sqft_delta": 2,
"subdivision": "Skipcha Mountain Estates Ph",
"year_built": 1993
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 2601 Arno Street, 3005 Sun Dance Drive, 604 Arapaho Drive, this new-construction card is $18/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 148.06,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 165.64,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Jerry Wright Homes",
"city": "Nolanville",
"closing_credit": 15000,
"dom": 79,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 165.64,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2772,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 166333,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -41457,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 389,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 165.64,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2825,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 169502,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -38288,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 442,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 165.64,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2859,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 182857,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -24933,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 476,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 165.64,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2699,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 183666,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -24124,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 316,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 165.64,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2883,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 189184,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -18606,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 500,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 165.64,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2383,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 207790,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 165.64,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 702,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 366120,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 158330,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1681,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 16200,
"effective_price": 324000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 165.64,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 122,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 580,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2699,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 141546,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 183666,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 307800,
"monthly_mi": 154,
"monthly_pi": 1843,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1997,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 288949
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 324000,
"effective_price": 324000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 165.64,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 122,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 580,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 702,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 324000,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 366120,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 64800,
"effective_price": 324000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 165.64,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 122,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 580,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2383,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 165670,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 207790,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 259200,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1681,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1681,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 243326
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 16200,
"effective_price": 324000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 165.64,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 122,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 580,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2883,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 147064,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 189184,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 307800,
"monthly_mi": 154,
"monthly_pi": 2027,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2181,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 289425
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 11340,
"effective_price": 324000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 165.64,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 122,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 580,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2859,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 140737,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 182857,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 318132,
"monthly_mi": 146,
"monthly_pi": 2011,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2157,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 297806
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 324000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 165.64,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 122,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 580,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2825,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 127382,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 169502,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 324000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2123,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2123,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 304492
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 324000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 165.64,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 122,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 580,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2772,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 124213,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 166333,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 330966,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2070,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2070,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 309462
}
}
},
"id": "5adfa4b838a1",
"incentive_types": [
"builder_concession",
"preferred_lender",
"rate_buydown",
"title_policy_survey"
],
"negotiability_score": 74,
"original_price": 339000,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 339000,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: builder concession language, preferred-lender requirement, rate buydown language, title policy or survey language.",
"sqft": 1956,
"subdivision": "Warriors Legacy Ph 2-C",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "8903 Chalk Maple Drive",
"apr": "6.23%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 38.73,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 25.01,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "1602 Indian Trail",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1602-indian-trail-harker-heights",
"price": 165000,
"price_per_sqft": 122.04,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1352,
"sqft_delta": -8,
"subdivision": "Comanche Land 1st Unit",
"year_built": 1982
},
{
"address": "4214 Broken Arrow Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "4214-broken-arrow-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 239700,
"price_per_sqft": 174.71,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1372,
"sqft_delta": 12,
"subdivision": "Broken Arrow Lake Estates Sec",
"year_built": 1977
},
{
"address": "1102 Chablis Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1102-chablis-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 214900,
"price_per_sqft": 154.83,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1388,
"sqft_delta": 28,
"subdivision": "The Vineyard",
"year_built": 1994
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 1602 Indian Trail, 4214 Broken Arrow Drive, 1102 Chablis Drive, this new-construction card is $39/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 154.83,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 193.56,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Killeen",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 75,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 193.56,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2252,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 143037,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -33683,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 316,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 193.56,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2295,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 145613,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -31107,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 359,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 191.62,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2171,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 152996,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -23724,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 235,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 193.56,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2323,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 156463,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -20257,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 387,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 193.56,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2342,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 161604,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -15116,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 406,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 193.56,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1936,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 176720,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 193.56,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 570,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 305358,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 128638,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1366,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 2632,
"down_payment": 13030,
"effective_price": 260608,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 191.62,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 98,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 467,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2171,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 119117,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 152996,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 247578,
"monthly_mi": 124,
"monthly_pi": 1483,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1607,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 232415
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 263240,
"effective_price": 263240,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 193.56,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 99,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 472,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 570,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 271137,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 305358,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 52648,
"effective_price": 263240,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 193.56,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 99,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 472,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1936,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 142499,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 176720,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 210592,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1366,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1366,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 197695
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 13162,
"effective_price": 263240,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 193.56,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 99,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 472,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2342,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 127382,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 161604,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 250078,
"monthly_mi": 125,
"monthly_pi": 1647,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1772,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 235149
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 9213,
"effective_price": 263240,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 193.56,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 99,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 472,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2323,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 122242,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 156463,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 258472,
"monthly_mi": 118,
"monthly_pi": 1634,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1752,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 241958
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 263240,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 193.56,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 99,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 472,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2295,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 111391,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 145613,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 263240,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1725,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1725,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 247391
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 263240,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 193.56,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 99,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 472,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2252,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 108816,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 143037,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 268900,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1682,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1682,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 251428
}
}
},
"id": "8aa1cf3f98a5",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"preferred_lender",
"rate_buydown"
],
"negotiability_score": 73,
"original_price": 263240,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 263240,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": "2.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, preferred-lender requirement, rate buydown language.",
"sqft": 1360,
"subdivision": "Preserve at Thousand Oaks",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "2021 Stillwell Street",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 4.15,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 2.44,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "812 Glenstone Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "812-glenstone-drive-temple",
"price": 287000,
"price_per_sqft": 170.33,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1685,
"sqft_delta": 0,
"subdivision": "Wyndham Hill Add Ph V",
"year_built": 2017
},
{
"address": "913 Hander Lane",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "913-hander-lane-belton",
"price": 299000,
"price_per_sqft": 177.45,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1685,
"sqft_delta": 0,
"subdivision": "Legado Estates",
"year_built": 1961
},
{
"address": "2115 Jefferson Court",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "2115-jefferson-court-belton",
"price": 257000,
"price_per_sqft": 152.43,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1686,
"sqft_delta": 1,
"subdivision": "Liberty Valley Ph II",
"year_built": 2013
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 812 Glenstone Drive, 913 Hander Lane, 2115 Jefferson Court, this new-construction card is $4/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 170.33,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 174.48,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Sandor Homes",
"city": "Nolanville",
"closing_credit": 15000,
"dom": 75,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.48,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2516,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 150932,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -37618,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 353,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.48,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2563,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 153808,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -34742,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 400,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.48,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2594,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 165926,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -22624,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 431,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.48,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2449,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 166660,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -21890,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 286,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.48,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2616,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 171667,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -16883,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 453,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.48,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2163,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 188550,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.48,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 637,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 332220,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 143670,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1526,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 14700,
"effective_price": 294000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.48,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 110,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 527,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2449,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 128440,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 166660,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 279300,
"monthly_mi": 140,
"monthly_pi": 1673,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1812,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 262195
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 294000,
"effective_price": 294000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.48,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 110,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 527,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 637,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 294000,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 332220,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 58800,
"effective_price": 294000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.48,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 110,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 527,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2163,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 150330,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 188550,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 235200,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1526,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1526,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 220796
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 14700,
"effective_price": 294000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.48,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 110,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 527,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2616,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 133447,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 171667,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 279300,
"monthly_mi": 140,
"monthly_pi": 1839,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1979,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 262627
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 10290,
"effective_price": 294000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.48,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 110,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 527,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2594,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 127706,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 165926,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 288675,
"monthly_mi": 132,
"monthly_pi": 1825,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1957,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 270231
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 294000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.48,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 110,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 527,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2563,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 115588,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 153808,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 294000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1926,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1926,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 276299
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 294000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.48,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 110,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 527,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2516,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 112712,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 150932,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 300321,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1879,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1879,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 280808
}
}
},
"id": "be52382a550b",
"incentive_types": [
"closing_costs",
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"preferred_lender",
"rate_buydown"
],
"negotiability_score": 73,
"original_price": 309000,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 309000,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": "4.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: closing-cost concession language, limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, preferred-lender requirement, rate buydown language.",
"sqft": 1685,
"subdivision": "WARRIORS LEGACY PHASE 2-",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "2210 Healy Drive",
"apr": "5.775%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 18.87,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 11.09,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "2001 S 9th Street",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "2001-s-9th-street-temple",
"price": 146000,
"price_per_sqft": 99.39,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-14-2026-mls-templebelton.csv",
"sqft": 1469,
"sqft_delta": 0,
"subdivision": "Hollywood Add",
"year_built": 1952
},
{
"address": "828 Starlight Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "828-starlight-drive-temple",
"price": 249828,
"price_per_sqft": 170.18,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-14-2026-mls-templebelton.csv",
"sqft": 1468,
"sqft_delta": -1,
"subdivision": "Windmill Farms Ph II",
"year_built": 2011
},
{
"address": "5918 Blackstone Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "5918-blackstone-drive-temple",
"price": 279000,
"price_per_sqft": 189.8,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1470,
"sqft_delta": 1,
"subdivision": "Wyndham Hill Additio",
"year_built": 2018
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 2001 S 9th Street, 828 Starlight Drive, 5918 Blackstone Drive, this new-construction card is $19/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 170.18,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 189.05,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Temple",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 47,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 189.05,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2376,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 150902,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -35534,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 333,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 189.05,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2421,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 153618,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -32818,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 378,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 187.16,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2291,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 161408,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -25028,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 248,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 189.05,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2450,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 165065,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -21371,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 407,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 189.05,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2471,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 170489,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -15947,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 428,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 189.05,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2043,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 186436,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 189.05,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 602,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 322147,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 135711,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1441,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 2777,
"down_payment": 13747,
"effective_price": 274936,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 187.16,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 103,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 493,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2291,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 125666,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 161408,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 261189,
"monthly_mi": 131,
"monthly_pi": 1564,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1695,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 50,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 245193
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 277713,
"effective_price": 277713,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 189.05,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 104,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 498,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 602,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 286044,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 322147,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 50,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 55543,
"effective_price": 277713,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 189.05,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 104,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 498,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2043,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 150334,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 186436,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 222170,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1441,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1441,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 50,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 208564
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 13886,
"effective_price": 277713,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 189.05,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 104,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 498,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2471,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 134386,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 170489,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 263827,
"monthly_mi": 132,
"monthly_pi": 1738,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1869,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 50,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 248078
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 9720,
"effective_price": 277713,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 189.05,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 104,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 498,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2450,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 128963,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 165065,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 272683,
"monthly_mi": 125,
"monthly_pi": 1724,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1849,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 50,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 255261
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 277713,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 189.05,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 104,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 498,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2421,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 117516,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 153618,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 277713,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1820,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1820,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 50,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 260992
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 277713,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 189.05,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 104,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 498,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2376,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 114799,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 150902,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 283684,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1774,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1774,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 50,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 265252
}
}
},
"id": "f04df63c642a",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"price_reduction"
],
"negotiability_score": 73,
"original_price": 277763,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 277713,
"price_cut": 50,
"rate": "4.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, price reduction.",
"sqft": 1469,
"subdivision": "Mesa Ridge",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "1409 Fossil Trail",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": -30.59,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": -15.3,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "2701 Kinney Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "2701-kinney-drive-belton",
"price": 284900,
"price_per_sqft": 173.3,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-0-500.csv",
"sqft": 1644,
"sqft_delta": 8,
"subdivision": "Forrest Hill Ph I",
"year_built": 1998
},
{
"address": "5307 E Lakeshore Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "5307-e-lakeshore-drive-belton",
"price": 325000,
"price_per_sqft": 199.88,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1626,
"sqft_delta": -10,
"subdivision": "Lakeview",
"year_built": 1986
},
{
"address": "15933 Goliad Loop",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "15933-goliad-loop-belton",
"price": 575000,
"price_per_sqft": 353.63,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1626,
"sqft_delta": -10,
"subdivision": "Tanglewood",
"year_built": 2010
}
],
"favorable": true,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 2701 Kinney Drive, 5307 E Lakeshore Drive, 15933 Goliad Loop, this new-construction card is $31/sqft cheaper on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 199.88,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 169.29,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": null,
"city": "Belton",
"closing_credit": 17000,
"dom": 136,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 169.29,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2370,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 142186,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -35439,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 333,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 169.29,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2415,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 144896,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -32729,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 378,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 169.29,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2444,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 156312,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -21313,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 407,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 169.29,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2307,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 157004,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -20621,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 270,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 169.29,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2465,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 161720,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -15905,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 428,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 169.29,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2037,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 177625,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 169.29,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 600,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 312970,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 135345,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1437,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 17000,
"down_payment": 13848,
"effective_price": 276965,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 169.29,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 104,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 496,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2307,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 120998,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 157004,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 263117,
"monthly_mi": 132,
"monthly_pi": 1576,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1707,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 247003
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 17000,
"down_payment": 276965,
"effective_price": 276965,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 169.29,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 104,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 496,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 600,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 276965,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 312970,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 17000,
"down_payment": 55393,
"effective_price": 276965,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 169.29,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 104,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 496,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2037,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 141620,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 177625,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 221572,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1437,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1437,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 208002
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 17000,
"down_payment": 13848,
"effective_price": 276965,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 169.29,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 104,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 496,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2465,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 125715,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 161720,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 263117,
"monthly_mi": 132,
"monthly_pi": 1733,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1864,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 247409
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 17000,
"down_payment": 9694,
"effective_price": 276965,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 169.29,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 104,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 496,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2444,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 120306,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 156312,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 271948,
"monthly_mi": 125,
"monthly_pi": 1719,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1844,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 254574
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 17000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 276965,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 169.29,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 104,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 496,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2415,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 108890,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 144896,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 276965,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1815,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1815,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 260289
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 17000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 276965,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 169.29,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 104,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 496,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2370,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 106181,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 142186,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 282920,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1770,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1770,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 264537
}
}
},
"id": "ee5a76266f5d",
"incentive_types": [
"closing_costs",
"rate_buydown"
],
"negotiability_score": 72,
"original_price": 293365,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 293965,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: closing-cost concession language, rate buydown language.",
"sqft": 1636,
"subdivision": "Hubbard Branch",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "2545 Tin Barn Bluff",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 17.58,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 10.25,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "5700 Redfish Court",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "5700-redfish-court-belton",
"price": 350000,
"price_per_sqft": 171.48,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2041,
"sqft_delta": -6,
"subdivision": "Three Creeks",
"year_built": 2022
},
{
"address": "4601 Abergavenny Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "4601-abergavenny-drive-belton",
"price": 310000,
"price_per_sqft": 150.49,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2060,
"sqft_delta": 13,
"subdivision": "Three Creeks Ph I",
"year_built": 2015
},
{
"address": "166 Mountain Rose Road",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "166-mountain-rose-road-belton",
"price": 425000,
"price_per_sqft": 209.26,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2031,
"sqft_delta": -16,
"subdivision": "High Crest Ph II",
"year_built": 2017
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 5700 Redfish Court, 4601 Abergavenny Drive, 166 Mountain Rose Road, this new-construction card is $18/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 171.48,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 189.06,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Rocky Creek Homes",
"city": "Belton",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 74,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 189.06,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3311,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 210285,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -49519,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 464,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 189.06,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3374,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 214071,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -45733,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 527,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 187.17,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3192,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 224925,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -34879,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 345,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 189.06,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3414,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 230023,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -29781,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 567,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 189.06,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3444,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 237580,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -22224,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 597,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 189.06,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2847,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 259804,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 189.06,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 838,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 448920,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 189116,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -2009,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 3870,
"down_payment": 19156,
"effective_price": 383130,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 187.17,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 144,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 686,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3192,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 175119,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 224925,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 363974,
"monthly_mi": 182,
"monthly_pi": 2180,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2362,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 341683
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 387000,
"effective_price": 387000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 189.06,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 145,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 693,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 838,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 398610,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 448920,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 77400,
"effective_price": 387000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 189.06,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 145,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 693,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2847,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 209494,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 259804,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 309600,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2008,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2008,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 290639
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 19350,
"effective_price": 387000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 189.06,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 145,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 693,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3444,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 187270,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 237580,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 367650,
"monthly_mi": 184,
"monthly_pi": 2421,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2605,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 345702
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 13545,
"effective_price": 387000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 189.06,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 145,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 693,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3414,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 179713,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 230023,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 379990,
"monthly_mi": 174,
"monthly_pi": 2402,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2576,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 355713
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 387000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 189.06,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 145,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 693,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3374,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 163761,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 214071,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 387000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2536,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2536,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 363699
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 387000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 189.06,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 145,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 693,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3311,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 159975,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 210285,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 395320,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2473,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2473,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 369635
}
}
},
"id": "05847965e48e",
"incentive_types": [
"fixed_rate",
"preferred_lender",
"rate_buydown"
],
"negotiability_score": 72,
"original_price": 387000,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 387000,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": "5.25%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: fixed-rate incentive, preferred-lender requirement, rate buydown language.",
"sqft": 2047,
"subdivision": "Hubbard Branch",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "2214 Healy Drive",
"apr": "6.293%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 16.9,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 11.72,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "7204 Rickey Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "7204-rickey-drive-temple",
"price": 260000,
"price_per_sqft": 139.34,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1866,
"sqft_delta": 3,
"subdivision": "Waco Road West Sub",
"year_built": 2005
},
{
"address": "313 Ruggles Loop",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "313-ruggles-loop-temple",
"price": 269000,
"price_per_sqft": 144.16,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1866,
"sqft_delta": 3,
"subdivision": "Bellaire North Sec 6",
"year_built": 1976
},
{
"address": "815 Cross Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "815-cross-drive-temple",
"price": 325000,
"price_per_sqft": 174.17,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1866,
"sqft_delta": 3,
"subdivision": "Wyndham Hill Additio",
"year_built": 2018
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 7204 Rickey Drive, 313 Ruggles Loop, 815 Cross Drive, this new-construction card is $17/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 144.16,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 161.06,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Temple",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 43,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 161.06,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2567,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 163043,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -38393,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 360,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 161.06,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2616,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 165978,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -35458,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 409,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 159.45,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2475,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 174393,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -27043,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 268,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 161.06,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2647,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 178346,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -23090,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 440,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 161.06,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2670,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 184206,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -17230,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 463,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 161.06,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2207,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 201436,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 161.06,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 650,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 348066,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 146630,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1557,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 3001,
"down_payment": 14853,
"effective_price": 297056,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 159.45,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 111,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 532,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2475,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 135776,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 174393,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 282203,
"monthly_mi": 141,
"monthly_pi": 1690,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1831,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 16928,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 264920
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 300057,
"effective_price": 300057,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 161.06,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 113,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 538,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 650,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 309059,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 348066,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 16928,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 60011,
"effective_price": 300057,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 161.06,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 113,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 538,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2207,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 162429,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 201436,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 240046,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1557,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1557,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 16928,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 225345
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 15003,
"effective_price": 300057,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 161.06,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 113,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 538,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2670,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 145198,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 184206,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 285054,
"monthly_mi": 143,
"monthly_pi": 1877,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2020,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 16928,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 268037
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 10502,
"effective_price": 300057,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 161.06,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 113,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 538,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2647,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 139339,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 178346,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 294622,
"monthly_mi": 135,
"monthly_pi": 1862,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1997,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 16928,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 275799
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 300057,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 161.06,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 113,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 538,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2616,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 126971,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 165978,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 300057,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1966,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1966,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 16928,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 281991
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 300057,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 161.06,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 113,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 538,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2567,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 124035,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 163043,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 306508,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1917,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1917,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 16928,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 286593
}
}
},
"id": "9e23a9fffc0e",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"price_reduction"
],
"negotiability_score": 72,
"original_price": 316985,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 300057,
"price_cut": 16928,
"rate": "5.49%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, price reduction.",
"sqft": 1863,
"subdivision": "Mesa Ridge",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "8821 Ponderosa Pine Road",
"apr": "5.691%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 31.55,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 23.45,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "2505 Canyon Creek Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "2505-canyon-creek-drive-temple",
"price": 249900,
"price_per_sqft": 134.57,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1857,
"sqft_delta": 3,
"subdivision": "Cliffs Of Canyon Creek Ph I",
"year_built": 1983
},
{
"address": "3811 River Oaks Circle",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "3811-river-oaks-circle-temple",
"price": 237900,
"price_per_sqft": 128.59,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1850,
"sqft_delta": -4,
"subdivision": "The Oaks",
"year_built": 1981
},
{
"address": "5921 Stanford Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "5921-stanford-drive-temple",
"price": 289000,
"price_per_sqft": 156.47,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1847,
"sqft_delta": -7,
"subdivision": "Alta Vista I",
"year_built": 2013
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 2505 Canyon Creek Drive, 3811 River Oaks Circle, 5921 Stanford Drive, this new-construction card is $32/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 134.57,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 166.12,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Temple",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 29,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.12,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2635,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 167353,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -39409,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 370,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.12,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2685,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 170366,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -36396,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 420,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.46,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2540,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 179004,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -27758,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 275,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.12,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2717,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 183061,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -23701,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 452,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.12,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2741,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 189076,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -17686,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 476,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.12,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2265,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 206762,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.12,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 667,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 357268,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 150506,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1598,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 3080,
"down_payment": 15246,
"effective_price": 304910,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.46,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 114,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 546,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2540,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 139366,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 179004,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 289664,
"monthly_mi": 145,
"monthly_pi": 1735,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1880,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 6200,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 271925
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 307990,
"effective_price": 307990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.12,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 115,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 552,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 667,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 317230,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 357268,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 6200,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 61598,
"effective_price": 307990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.12,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 115,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 552,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2265,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 166723,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 206762,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 246392,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1598,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1598,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 6200,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 231302
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 15400,
"effective_price": 307990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.12,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 115,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 552,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2741,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 149037,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 189076,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 292590,
"monthly_mi": 146,
"monthly_pi": 1927,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2073,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 6200,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 275124
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 10780,
"effective_price": 307990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.12,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 115,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 552,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2717,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 143022,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 183061,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 302412,
"monthly_mi": 139,
"monthly_pi": 1911,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2050,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 6200,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 283090
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 307990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.12,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 115,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 552,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2685,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 130328,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 170366,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 307990,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2018,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2018,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 6200,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 289446
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 307990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.12,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 115,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 552,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2635,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 127315,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 167353,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 314612,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1968,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1968,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 6200,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 294170
}
}
},
"id": "9916bf458ce2",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"preferred_lender",
"price_reduction"
],
"negotiability_score": 72,
"original_price": 314190,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 307990,
"price_cut": 6200,
"rate": "4.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, preferred-lender requirement, price reduction.",
"sqft": 1854,
"subdivision": "Mesa Ridge",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "618 Campus Street",
"apr": "6.23%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": -21.6,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": -11.83,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "1503 E Calhoun Avenue",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1503-e-calhoun-avenue-temple",
"price": 184900,
"price_per_sqft": 157.23,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1176,
"sqft_delta": 2,
"subdivision": "Highland Terrace Annex Ph I",
"year_built": 1999
},
{
"address": "1607 Ridgeway Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1607-ridgeway-drive-temple",
"price": 214000,
"price_per_sqft": 182.59,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1172,
"sqft_delta": -2,
"subdivision": "Oak Hills Sec Two Ph Tw",
"year_built": 1988
},
{
"address": "1319 N 12th Street",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1319-n-12th-street-temple",
"price": 215000,
"price_per_sqft": 183.45,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1172,
"sqft_delta": -2,
"subdivision": "Patterson Add Ph One",
"year_built": 1996
}
],
"favorable": true,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 1503 E Calhoun Avenue, 1607 Ridgeway Drive, 1319 N 12th Street, this new-construction card is $22/sqft cheaper on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 182.59,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 160.99,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Troy",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 27,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 160.99,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1617,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 102697,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -24184,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 227,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 160.99,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1648,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 104546,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -22335,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 258,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 159.38,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1559,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 109847,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -17034,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 169,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 160.99,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1668,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 112337,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -14544,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 278,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 160.99,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1682,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 116027,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -10854,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 292,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 160.99,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1390,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 126881,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 160.99,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 409,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 219240,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 92359,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -981,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 1890,
"down_payment": 9356,
"effective_price": 187110,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 159.38,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 70,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 335,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1559,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 85523,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 109847,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 177754,
"monthly_mi": 89,
"monthly_pi": 1065,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1153,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 990,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 166868
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 189000,
"effective_price": 189000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 160.99,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 71,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 339,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 409,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 194670,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 219240,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 990,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 37800,
"effective_price": 189000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 160.99,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 71,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 339,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1390,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 102311,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 126881,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 151200,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 981,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 981,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 990,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 141940
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 9450,
"effective_price": 189000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 160.99,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 71,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 339,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1682,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 91457,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 116027,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 179550,
"monthly_mi": 90,
"monthly_pi": 1183,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1272,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 990,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 168831
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 6615,
"effective_price": 189000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 160.99,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 71,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 339,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1668,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 87767,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 112337,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 185577,
"monthly_mi": 85,
"monthly_pi": 1173,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1258,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 990,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 173720
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 189000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 160.99,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 71,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 339,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1648,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 79976,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 104546,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 189000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1238,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1238,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 990,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 177621
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 189000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 160.99,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 71,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 339,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1617,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 78127,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 102697,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 193064,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1208,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1208,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 990,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 180519
}
}
},
"id": "86aa00365880",
"incentive_types": [
"closing_costs",
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"preferred_lender",
"price_reduction"
],
"negotiability_score": 72,
"original_price": 189990,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 189000,
"price_cut": 990,
"rate": "4.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: closing-cost concession language, limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, preferred-lender requirement, price reduction.",
"sqft": 1174,
"subdivision": "College Park",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "2221 Bigtooth Maple Road",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 25.5,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 18.46,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "601 W Zenith Avenue",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "601-w-zenith-avenue-temple",
"price": 269700,
"price_per_sqft": 138.1,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1953,
"sqft_delta": -3,
"subdivision": "D H Buchanan Add Second S",
"year_built": 1963
},
{
"address": "2010 S 49th Street",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "2010-s-49th-street-temple",
"price": 230000,
"price_per_sqft": 117.29,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1961,
"sqft_delta": 5,
"subdivision": "Skyline",
"year_built": 1962
},
{
"address": "1503 Fiddle Wood Way",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "1503-fiddle-wood-way-temple",
"price": 299999,
"price_per_sqft": 153.77,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1951,
"sqft_delta": -5,
"subdivision": "Prairie Rdg Ph II",
"year_built": 2022
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 601 W Zenith Avenue, 2010 S 49th Street, 1503 Fiddle Wood Way, this new-construction card is $26/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 138.1,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 163.6,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Jerry Wright Homes",
"city": "Temple",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 118,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 163.6,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2738,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 173879,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -40946,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 384,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 163.6,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2790,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 177010,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -37815,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 436,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 161.96,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2639,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 185985,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -28840,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 285,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 163.6,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2823,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 190200,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -24625,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 469,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 163.6,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2847,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 196449,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -18376,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 493,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 163.6,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2354,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 214825,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 163.6,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 693,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 371200,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 156375,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1661,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 3200,
"down_payment": 15840,
"effective_price": 316800,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 161.96,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 119,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 568,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2639,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 144801,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 185985,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 300960,
"monthly_mi": 150,
"monthly_pi": 1802,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1953,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 282528
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 320000,
"effective_price": 320000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 163.6,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 120,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 573,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 693,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 329600,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 371200,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 64000,
"effective_price": 320000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 163.6,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 120,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 573,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2354,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 173225,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 214825,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 256000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1660,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1660,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 240322
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 16000,
"effective_price": 320000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 163.6,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 120,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 573,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2847,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 154849,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 196449,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 304000,
"monthly_mi": 152,
"monthly_pi": 2002,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2154,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 285852
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 11200,
"effective_price": 320000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 163.6,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 120,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 573,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2823,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 148600,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 190200,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 314204,
"monthly_mi": 144,
"monthly_pi": 1986,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2130,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 294129
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 320000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 163.6,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 120,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 573,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2790,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 135410,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 177010,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 320000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2097,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2097,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 300733
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 320000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 163.6,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 120,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 573,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2738,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 132279,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 173879,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 326880,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2045,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2045,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 305641
}
}
},
"id": "2877a8c45333",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"rate_buydown"
],
"negotiability_score": 71,
"original_price": 310000,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 320000,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, rate buydown language.",
"sqft": 1956,
"subdivision": "Mesa Ridge",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "1010 Winchester Drive",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 60.29,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 39.57,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "3309 Cottonwood Lane",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "3309-cottonwood-lane-temple",
"price": 330000,
"price_per_sqft": 152.35,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-14-2026-mls-templebelton.csv",
"sqft": 2166,
"sqft_delta": -2,
"subdivision": "Meadow Oaks North",
"year_built": 1975
},
{
"address": "809 Kendra Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "809-kendra-drive-temple",
"price": 349900,
"price_per_sqft": 161.54,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2166,
"sqft_delta": -2,
"subdivision": "Canyon Ridge Ph III",
"year_built": 2017
},
{
"address": "3610 Gila Trl.",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "3610-gila-trl-temple",
"price": 309500,
"price_per_sqft": 142.56,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2171,
"sqft_delta": 3,
"subdivision": "",
"year_built": 1971
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 3309 Cottonwood Lane, 809 Kendra Drive, 3610 Gila Trl., this new-construction card is $60/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 152.35,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 212.64,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "A & G Homes",
"city": "Nolanville",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 325,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 212.64,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3944,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 250495,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -58987,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 553,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 212.64,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4020,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 255005,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -54477,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 629,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 210.51,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3802,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 267934,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -41548,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 411,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 212.64,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4067,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 274006,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -35476,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 676,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 212.64,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4102,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 283009,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -26473,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 711,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 212.64,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3391,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 309482,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 212.64,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 999,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 534760,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 225278,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -2392,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 4610,
"down_payment": 22820,
"effective_price": 456390,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 210.51,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 171,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 818,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3802,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 208604,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 267934,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 433570,
"monthly_mi": 217,
"monthly_pi": 2597,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2813,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 407017
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 461000,
"effective_price": 461000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 212.64,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 173,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 826,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 999,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 474830,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 534760,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 92200,
"effective_price": 461000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 212.64,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 173,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 826,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3391,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 249552,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 309482,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 368800,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2392,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2392,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 346214
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 23050,
"effective_price": 461000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 212.64,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 173,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 826,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4102,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 223079,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 283009,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 437950,
"monthly_mi": 219,
"monthly_pi": 2884,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3103,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 411806
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 16135,
"effective_price": 461000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 212.64,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 173,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 826,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4067,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 214076,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 274006,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 452650,
"monthly_mi": 207,
"monthly_pi": 2861,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3069,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 423730
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 461000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 212.64,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 173,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 826,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4020,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 195075,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 255005,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 461000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3021,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3021,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 433244
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 461000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 212.64,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 173,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 826,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3944,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 190565,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 250495,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 470912,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2946,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2946,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 440314
}
}
},
"id": "f07b32a5be96",
"incentive_types": [
"closing_costs",
"preferred_lender"
],
"negotiability_score": 69,
"original_price": 461000,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 461000,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: closing-cost concession language, preferred-lender requirement.",
"sqft": 2168,
"subdivision": "Bella Charca Ph Ix",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "6750 King Mill Drive",
"apr": "5.775%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 31.34,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 14.9,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "1250 E Creekview Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "1250-e-creekview-drive-salado",
"price": 910000,
"price_per_sqft": 295.84,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 3076,
"sqft_delta": -6,
"subdivision": "Hidden Spgs Sec One",
"year_built": 2021
},
{
"address": "1708 Meadow Crest Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "1708-meadow-crest-drive-salado",
"price": 600000,
"price_per_sqft": 197.17,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 3043,
"sqft_delta": -39,
"subdivision": "Mill Crk Spgs Ph X",
"year_built": 2021
},
{
"address": "7511 N Lakeview Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "7511-n-lakeview-drive-salado",
"price": 640000,
"price_per_sqft": 210.39,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 3042,
"sqft_delta": -40,
"subdivision": "The Woods Of Salado",
"year_built": 1994
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 1250 E Creekview Drive, 1708 Meadow Crest Drive, 7511 N Lakeview Drive, this new-construction card is $31/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 210.39,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 241.73,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Salado",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 18,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 241.73,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6374,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 404813,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -95326,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 894,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 241.73,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6496,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 412101,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -88038,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 1016,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 239.31,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6145,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 432996,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -67143,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 665,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 241.73,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6573,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 442808,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -57331,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 1093,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 241.73,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6629,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 457357,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -42782,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 1149,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 241.73,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5480,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 500139,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 241.73,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1614,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 864200,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 364061,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -3866,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 7450,
"down_payment": 36878,
"effective_price": 737550,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 239.31,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 277,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1321,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6145,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 337115,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 432996,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 700672,
"monthly_mi": 350,
"monthly_pi": 4196,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4547,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 11504,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 657761
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 745000,
"effective_price": 745000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 241.73,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 279,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1335,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1614,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 767350,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 864200,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 11504,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 149000,
"effective_price": 745000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 241.73,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 279,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1335,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5480,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 403289,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 500139,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 596000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3866,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3866,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 11504,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 559499
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 37250,
"effective_price": 745000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 241.73,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 279,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1335,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6629,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 360507,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 457357,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 707750,
"monthly_mi": 354,
"monthly_pi": 4661,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 5015,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 11504,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 665499
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 26075,
"effective_price": 745000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 241.73,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 279,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1335,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6573,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 345958,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 442808,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 731506,
"monthly_mi": 335,
"monthly_pi": 4624,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4959,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 11504,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 684770
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 745000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 241.73,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 279,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1335,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6496,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 315251,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 412101,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 745000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 4882,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4882,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 11504,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 700144
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 745000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 241.73,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 279,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1335,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6374,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 307963,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 404813,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 761018,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 4760,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4760,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 11504,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 711571
}
}
},
"id": "ded5d303cffd",
"incentive_types": [
"closing_costs",
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"preferred_lender",
"price_reduction"
],
"negotiability_score": 69,
"original_price": 756504,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 745000,
"price_cut": 11504,
"rate": "4.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: closing-cost concession language, limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, preferred-lender requirement, price reduction.",
"sqft": 3082,
"subdivision": "King Oaks",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "1409 S 5th Street",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": -18.09,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": -11.17,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "4714 Buckskin Trail",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "4714-buckskin-trail-temple",
"price": 220000,
"price_per_sqft": 162.0,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1358,
"sqft_delta": 3,
"subdivision": "Stratford Place Ph I",
"year_built": 1989
},
{
"address": "4735 Stonehaven Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "4735-stonehaven-drive-temple",
"price": 210000,
"price_per_sqft": 155.67,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1349,
"sqft_delta": -6,
"subdivision": "Echo Vista Add",
"year_built": 2009
},
{
"address": "7405 Buffalo Grass Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "7405-buffalo-grass-drive-temple",
"price": 247000,
"price_per_sqft": 181.48,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1361,
"sqft_delta": 6,
"subdivision": "Villages/Westfield Ph II",
"year_built": 2020
}
],
"favorable": true,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 4714 Buckskin Trail, 4735 Stonehaven Drive, 7405 Buffalo Grass Drive, this new-construction card is $18/sqft cheaper on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 162.0,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 143.91,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": null,
"city": "Temple",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 30,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 143.91,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1668,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 105958,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -24951,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 234,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 143.91,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1700,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 107865,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -23044,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 266,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 142.47,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1608,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 113335,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -17574,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 174,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 143.91,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1720,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 115903,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -15006,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 286,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 143.91,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1735,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 119711,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -11198,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 301,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 143.91,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1434,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 130909,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 143.91,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 422,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 226200,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 95291,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1012,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 1950,
"down_payment": 9652,
"effective_price": 193050,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 142.47,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 72,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 346,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1608,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 88238,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 113335,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 183398,
"monthly_mi": 92,
"monthly_pi": 1098,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1190,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 5000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 172166
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 195000,
"effective_price": 195000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 143.91,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 73,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 349,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 422,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 200850,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 226200,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 5000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 39000,
"effective_price": 195000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 143.91,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 73,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 349,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1434,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 105559,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 130909,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 156000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1012,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1012,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 5000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 146446
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 9750,
"effective_price": 195000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 143.91,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 73,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 349,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1735,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 94361,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 119711,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 185250,
"monthly_mi": 93,
"monthly_pi": 1220,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1313,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 5000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 174191
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 6825,
"effective_price": 195000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 143.91,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 73,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 349,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1720,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 90553,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 115903,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 191468,
"monthly_mi": 88,
"monthly_pi": 1210,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1298,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 5000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 179235
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 195000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 143.91,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 73,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 349,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1700,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 82515,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 107865,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 195000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1278,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1278,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 5000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 183259
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 195000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 143.91,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 73,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 349,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1668,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 80608,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 105958,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 199192,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1246,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1246,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 5000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 186250
}
}
},
"id": "a02e06a7f8dc",
"incentive_types": [
"closing_costs",
"price_reduction",
"rate_buydown"
],
"negotiability_score": 68,
"original_price": 200000,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 195000,
"price_cut": 5000,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: closing-cost concession language, price reduction, rate buydown language.",
"sqft": 1355,
"subdivision": "",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "1315 Lone Pine Way",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 31.24,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 23.45,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "3908 Lakecliff Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "3908-lakecliff-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 174900,
"price_per_sqft": 133.21,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1313,
"sqft_delta": -12,
"subdivision": "Cherokee Lane",
"year_built": 1996
},
{
"address": "1602 Indian Trail",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1602-indian-trail-harker-heights",
"price": 165000,
"price_per_sqft": 122.04,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1352,
"sqft_delta": 27,
"subdivision": "Comanche Land 1st Unit",
"year_built": 1982
},
{
"address": "4214 Broken Arrow Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "4214-broken-arrow-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 239700,
"price_per_sqft": 174.71,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1372,
"sqft_delta": 47,
"subdivision": "Broken Arrow Lake Estates Sec",
"year_built": 1977
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 3908 Lakecliff Drive, 1602 Indian Trail, 4214 Broken Arrow Drive, this new-construction card is $31/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 133.21,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 164.45,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "BFF Construction",
"city": "Killeen",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 114,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.45,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1864,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 118401,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -27881,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 261,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.45,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1900,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 120533,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -25749,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 297,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 162.81,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1797,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 126644,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -19638,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 194,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.45,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1923,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 129514,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -16768,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 320,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.45,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1939,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 133769,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -12513,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 336,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.45,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1603,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 146282,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.45,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 472,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 252764,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 106482,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1131,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 2179,
"down_payment": 10786,
"effective_price": 215721,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 162.81,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 81,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 387,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1797,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 98600,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 126644,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 204935,
"monthly_mi": 102,
"monthly_pi": 1227,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1330,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 192384
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 217900,
"effective_price": 217900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.45,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 82,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 390,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 472,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 224437,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 252764,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 43580,
"effective_price": 217900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.45,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 82,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 390,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1603,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 117955,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 146282,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 174320,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1131,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1131,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 163644
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 10895,
"effective_price": 217900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.45,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 82,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 390,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1939,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 105442,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 133769,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 207005,
"monthly_mi": 104,
"monthly_pi": 1363,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1467,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 194647
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 7627,
"effective_price": 217900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.45,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 82,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 390,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1923,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 101187,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 129514,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 213953,
"monthly_mi": 98,
"monthly_pi": 1352,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1450,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 200284
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 217900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.45,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 82,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 390,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1900,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 92206,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 120533,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 217900,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1428,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1428,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 204780
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 217900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.45,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 82,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 390,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1864,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 90074,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 118401,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 222585,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1392,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1392,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 208123
}
}
},
"id": "2827acbf6178",
"incentive_types": [
"lender_credit",
"preferred_lender"
],
"negotiability_score": 67,
"original_price": 217900,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 217900,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: lender-credit language, preferred-lender requirement.",
"sqft": 1325,
"subdivision": "DOGWOOD ADDITION",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "9011 Chalk Maple Drive",
"apr": "5.775%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 39.79,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 25.7,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "1602 Indian Trail",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1602-indian-trail-harker-heights",
"price": 165000,
"price_per_sqft": 122.04,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1352,
"sqft_delta": -8,
"subdivision": "Comanche Land 1st Unit",
"year_built": 1982
},
{
"address": "4214 Broken Arrow Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "4214-broken-arrow-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 239700,
"price_per_sqft": 174.71,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1372,
"sqft_delta": 12,
"subdivision": "Broken Arrow Lake Estates Sec",
"year_built": 1977
},
{
"address": "1102 Chablis Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1102-chablis-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 214900,
"price_per_sqft": 154.83,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1388,
"sqft_delta": 28,
"subdivision": "The Vineyard",
"year_built": 1994
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 1602 Indian Trail, 4214 Broken Arrow Drive, 1102 Chablis Drive, this new-construction card is $40/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 154.83,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 194.62,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Killeen",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 29,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 194.62,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2265,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 143825,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -33869,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 318,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 194.62,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2308,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 146415,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -31279,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 361,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 192.68,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2183,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 153838,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -23856,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 236,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 194.62,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2335,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 157325,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -20369,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 388,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 194.62,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2355,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 162494,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -15200,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 408,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 194.62,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1947,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 177694,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 194.62,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 573,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 307040,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 129346,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1374,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 2647,
"down_payment": 13102,
"effective_price": 262043,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 192.68,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 98,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 469,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2183,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 119773,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 153838,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 248941,
"monthly_mi": 124,
"monthly_pi": 1491,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1615,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 445,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 233695
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 264690,
"effective_price": 264690,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 194.62,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 99,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 474,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 573,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 272631,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 307040,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 445,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 52938,
"effective_price": 264690,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 194.62,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 99,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 474,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1947,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 143284,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 177694,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 211752,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1373,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1373,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 445,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 198784
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 13234,
"effective_price": 264690,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 194.62,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 99,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 474,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2355,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 128084,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 162494,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 251456,
"monthly_mi": 126,
"monthly_pi": 1656,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1782,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 445,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 236444
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 9264,
"effective_price": 264690,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 194.62,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 99,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 474,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2335,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 122915,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 157325,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 259896,
"monthly_mi": 119,
"monthly_pi": 1643,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1762,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 445,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 243291
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 264690,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 194.62,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 99,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 474,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2308,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 112005,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 146415,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 264690,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1734,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1734,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 445,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 248753
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 264690,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 194.62,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 99,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 474,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2265,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 109416,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 143825,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 270381,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1691,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1691,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 445,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 252813
}
}
},
"id": "f28aa770914e",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"price_reduction"
],
"negotiability_score": 67,
"original_price": 265135,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 264690,
"price_cut": 445,
"rate": "4.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, price reduction.",
"sqft": 1360,
"subdivision": "Preserve at Thousand Oaks",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "1711 Bear Grass Ridge Road",
"apr": "6.23%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 12.99,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 8.02,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "7405 Buffalo Grass Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "7405-buffalo-grass-drive-temple",
"price": 247000,
"price_per_sqft": 181.48,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1361,
"sqft_delta": 1,
"subdivision": "Villages/Westfield Ph II",
"year_built": 2020
},
{
"address": "4714 Buckskin Trail",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "4714-buckskin-trail-temple",
"price": 220000,
"price_per_sqft": 162.0,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1358,
"sqft_delta": -2,
"subdivision": "Stratford Place Ph I",
"year_built": 1989
},
{
"address": "4413 Lone Star Trail",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "4413-lone-star-trail-temple",
"price": 197000,
"price_per_sqft": 144.11,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1367,
"sqft_delta": 7,
"subdivision": "Canyon Creek Ph IV",
"year_built": 1986
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 7405 Buffalo Grass Drive, 4714 Buckskin Trail, 4413 Lone Star Trail, this new-construction card is $13/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 162.0,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 174.99,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Temple",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 12,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.99,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2036,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 129317,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -30452,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 285,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.99,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2075,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 131645,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -28124,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 324,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 173.24,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1963,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 138320,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -21449,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 212,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.99,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2100,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 141455,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -18314,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 349,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.99,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2118,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 146103,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -13666,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 367,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.99,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1751,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 159769,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.99,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 516,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 276068,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 116299,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1235,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 2380,
"down_payment": 11780,
"effective_price": 235610,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 173.24,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 88,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 422,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1963,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 107691,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 138320,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 223830,
"monthly_mi": 112,
"monthly_pi": 1341,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1452,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 17000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 210122
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 237990,
"effective_price": 237990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.99,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 89,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 426,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 516,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 245130,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 276068,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 17000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 47598,
"effective_price": 237990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.99,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 89,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 426,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1751,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 128830,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 159769,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 190392,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1235,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1235,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 17000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 178732
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 11900,
"effective_price": 237990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.99,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 89,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 426,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2118,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 115164,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 146103,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 226090,
"monthly_mi": 113,
"monthly_pi": 1489,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1602,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 17000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 212594
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 8330,
"effective_price": 237990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.99,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 89,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 426,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2100,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 110516,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 141455,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 233679,
"monthly_mi": 107,
"monthly_pi": 1477,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1584,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 17000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 218750
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 237990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.99,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 89,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 426,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2075,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 100707,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 131645,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 237990,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1559,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1559,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 17000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 223661
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 237990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.99,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 89,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 426,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2036,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 98379,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 129317,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 243107,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1521,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1521,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 17000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 227311
}
}
},
"id": "9bd1d3efa360",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"preferred_lender",
"price_reduction",
"rate_buydown"
],
"negotiability_score": 67,
"original_price": 254990,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 237990,
"price_cut": 17000,
"rate": "2.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, preferred-lender requirement, price reduction, rate buydown language.",
"sqft": 1360,
"subdivision": "Ridge at Knob Creek",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "3302 Zephyr Road",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": -11.25,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": -7.84,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "1703 Quarry Trail",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1703-quarry-trail-harker-heights",
"price": 212500,
"price_per_sqft": 136.92,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1552,
"sqft_delta": 2,
"subdivision": "Fawn Valley Rep Blks 1-2",
"year_built": 1995
},
{
"address": "2010 Shadow Ridge Road",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "2010-shadow-ridge-road-harker-heights",
"price": 238500,
"price_per_sqft": 154.47,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1544,
"sqft_delta": -6,
"subdivision": "Whitten Place",
"year_built": 1993
},
{
"address": "1100 Chablis Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1100-chablis-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 220000,
"price_per_sqft": 143.51,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1533,
"sqft_delta": -17,
"subdivision": "The Vineyard",
"year_built": 1994
}
],
"favorable": true,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 1703 Quarry Trail, 2010 Shadow Ridge Road, 1100 Chablis Drive, this new-construction card is $11/sqft cheaper on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 143.51,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 132.26,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": null,
"city": "Killeen",
"closing_credit": 5000,
"dom": 82,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 132.26,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1754,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 106541,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -26230,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 246,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 132.26,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1787,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 108546,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -24225,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 279,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 132.26,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1809,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 116996,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -15775,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 301,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 132.26,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1708,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 117508,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -15263,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 200,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 132.26,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1824,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 120999,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -11772,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 316,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 132.26,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1508,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 132771,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 132.26,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 444,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 232949,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 100178,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1064,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 5000,
"down_payment": 10250,
"effective_price": 204999,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 132.26,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 77,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 367,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1708,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 90858,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 117508,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 194749,
"monthly_mi": 97,
"monthly_pi": 1166,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1264,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 25001,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 182822
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 5000,
"down_payment": 204999,
"effective_price": 204999,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 132.26,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 77,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 367,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 444,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 206299,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 232949,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 25001,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 5000,
"down_payment": 41000,
"effective_price": 204999,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 132.26,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 77,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 367,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1508,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 106122,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 132771,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 163999,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1064,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1064,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 25001,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 153955
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 5000,
"down_payment": 10250,
"effective_price": 204999,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 132.26,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 77,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 367,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1824,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 94349,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 120999,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 194749,
"monthly_mi": 97,
"monthly_pi": 1283,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1380,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 25001,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 183123
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 5000,
"down_payment": 7175,
"effective_price": 204999,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 132.26,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 77,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 367,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1809,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 90346,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 116996,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 201286,
"monthly_mi": 92,
"monthly_pi": 1272,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1365,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 25001,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 188426
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 5000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 204999,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 132.26,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 77,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 367,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1787,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 81896,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 108546,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 204999,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1343,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1343,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 25001,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 192656
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 5000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 204999,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 132.26,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 77,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 367,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1754,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 79891,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 106541,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 209406,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1310,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1310,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 25001,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 195800
}
}
},
"id": "e862909de7fd",
"incentive_types": [
"closing_costs",
"price_reduction"
],
"negotiability_score": 66,
"original_price": 235000,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 209999,
"price_cut": 25001,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: closing-cost concession language, price reduction.",
"sqft": 1550,
"subdivision": "Rose Add 3rd Unit",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "1014 High Plains Drive",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 77.71,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 56.48,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "1808 N Beal Street",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1808-n-beal-street-belton",
"price": 299900,
"price_per_sqft": 129.38,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2318,
"sqft_delta": -4,
"subdivision": "Oakdale",
"year_built": 1967
},
{
"address": "713 Bighorn Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "713-bighorn-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 320000,
"price_per_sqft": 137.58,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 2326,
"sqft_delta": 4,
"subdivision": "Skipcha Mountain Estates Ph",
"year_built": 2005
},
{
"address": "4405 Pawnee Trail",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "4405-pawnee-trail-harker-heights",
"price": 330000,
"price_per_sqft": 142.36,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 2318,
"sqft_delta": -4,
"subdivision": "Broken Arrow Lake Estates Sec",
"year_built": 1971
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 1808 N Beal Street, 713 Bighorn Drive, 4405 Pawnee Trail, this new-construction card is $78/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 137.58,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 215.29,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Hodges Eagle Ridge Builders",
"city": "Nolanville",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 91,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 215.29,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4277,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 271632,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -63964,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 600,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 215.29,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4359,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 276522,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -59074,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 682,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 213.14,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4123,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 290543,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -45053,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 446,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 215.29,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4411,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 297127,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -38469,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 734,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 215.29,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4448,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 306890,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -28706,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 771,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 215.29,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3677,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 335596,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 215.29,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1083,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 579884,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 244288,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -2594,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 4999,
"down_payment": 24745,
"effective_price": 494901,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 213.14,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 186,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 887,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4123,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 226206,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 290543,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 470156,
"monthly_mi": 235,
"monthly_pi": 2816,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3051,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 441362
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 499900,
"effective_price": 499900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 215.29,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 187,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 896,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1083,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 514897,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 579884,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 99980,
"effective_price": 499900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 215.29,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 187,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 896,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3677,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 270609,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 335596,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 399920,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2594,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2594,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 375428
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 24995,
"effective_price": 499900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 215.29,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 187,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 896,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4448,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 241903,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 306890,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 474905,
"monthly_mi": 237,
"monthly_pi": 3128,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3365,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 446555
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 17496,
"effective_price": 499900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 215.29,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 187,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 896,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4411,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 232140,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 297127,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 490846,
"monthly_mi": 225,
"monthly_pi": 3102,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3327,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 459485
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 499900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 215.29,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 187,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 896,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4359,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 211535,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 276522,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 499900,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3276,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3276,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 469802
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 499900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 215.29,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 187,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 896,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4277,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 206645,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 271632,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 510648,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3194,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3194,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 477469
}
}
},
"id": "8c93ca8c91f5",
"incentive_types": [
"builder_concession",
"closing_costs",
"title_policy_survey"
],
"negotiability_score": 65,
"original_price": 499900,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 499900,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: builder concession language, closing-cost concession language, title policy or survey language.",
"sqft": 2322,
"subdivision": "Bella Charca Ph X",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "1807 Dorian Drive",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 61.49,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 29.52,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "700 Arrowhead Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "700-arrowhead-drive-salado",
"price": 447000,
"price_per_sqft": 179.81,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2486,
"sqft_delta": 6,
"subdivision": "",
"year_built": 1994
},
{
"address": "225 Villars Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "225-villars-drive-salado",
"price": 514000,
"price_per_sqft": 208.27,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2468,
"sqft_delta": -12,
"subdivision": "Salado Sanctuary Ph 1a",
"year_built": 2023
},
{
"address": "1110 Northcross Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "1110-northcross-drive-salado",
"price": 627500,
"price_per_sqft": 251.0,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2500,
"sqft_delta": 20,
"subdivision": "Mill Crk Spgs Ph Ix",
"year_built": 2022
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 700 Arrowhead Drive, 225 Villars Drive, 1110 Northcross Drive, this new-construction card is $61/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 208.27,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 269.76,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Sandor Homes",
"city": "Salado",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 51,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 269.76,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5724,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 363516,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -85602,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 803,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 269.76,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5833,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 370061,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -79057,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 912,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 267.06,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5518,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 388825,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -60293,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 597,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 269.76,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5903,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 397636,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -51482,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 982,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 269.76,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5953,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 410700,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -38418,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 1032,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 269.76,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4921,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 449118,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 269.76,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1449,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 776040,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 326922,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -3472,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 6690,
"down_payment": 33116,
"effective_price": 662310,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 267.06,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 248,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1187,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5518,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 302724,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 388825,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 629194,
"monthly_mi": 315,
"monthly_pi": 3768,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4083,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 590661
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 669000,
"effective_price": 669000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 269.76,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 251,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1199,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1449,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 689070,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 776040,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 133800,
"effective_price": 669000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 269.76,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 251,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1199,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4921,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 362148,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 449118,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 535200,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3471,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3471,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 502423
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 33450,
"effective_price": 669000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 269.76,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 251,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1199,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5953,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 323730,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 410700,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 635550,
"monthly_mi": 318,
"monthly_pi": 4186,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4504,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 597610
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 23415,
"effective_price": 669000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 269.76,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 251,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1199,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5903,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 310666,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 397636,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 656883,
"monthly_mi": 301,
"monthly_pi": 4152,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4453,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 614914
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 669000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 269.76,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 251,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1199,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5833,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 283091,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 370061,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 669000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 4384,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4384,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 628720
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 669000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 269.76,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 251,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1199,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5724,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 276546,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 363516,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 683384,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 4275,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4275,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 638981
}
}
},
"id": "fe024c3ea98b",
"incentive_types": [
"closing_costs",
"preferred_lender",
"rate_buydown"
],
"negotiability_score": 65,
"original_price": 669000,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 669000,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: closing-cost concession language, preferred-lender requirement, rate buydown language.",
"sqft": 2480,
"subdivision": "Mill Creek Meadows",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "3705 Southern Catapla Drive",
"apr": "5.775%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 22.06,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 14.65,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "308 Live Oak Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "308-live-oak-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 335000,
"price_per_sqft": 180.89,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1852,
"sqft_delta": -2,
"subdivision": "Highland Oaks Estates Sec",
"year_built": 1973
},
{
"address": "220 W Mockingbird Ln",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "220-w-mockingbird-ln-harker-heights",
"price": 235000,
"price_per_sqft": 126.96,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1851,
"sqft_delta": -3,
"subdivision": "",
"year_built": 1975
},
{
"address": "1711 Lynx Circle",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1711-lynx-circle-harker-heights",
"price": 280000,
"price_per_sqft": 150.54,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1860,
"sqft_delta": 6,
"subdivision": "Country Trails Add 6th Ph",
"year_built": 1993
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 308 Live Oak Drive, 220 W Mockingbird Ln, 1711 Lynx Circle, this new-construction card is $22/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 150.54,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 172.6,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Killeen",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 49,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.6,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2738,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 173879,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -40946,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 384,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.6,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2790,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 177010,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -37815,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 436,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 170.87,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2639,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 185985,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -28840,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 285,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.6,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2823,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 190200,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -24625,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 469,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.6,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2847,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 196449,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -18376,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 493,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.6,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2354,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 214825,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.6,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 693,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 371200,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 156375,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1661,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 3200,
"down_payment": 15840,
"effective_price": 316800,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 170.87,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 119,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 568,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2639,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 144801,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 185985,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 300960,
"monthly_mi": 150,
"monthly_pi": 1802,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1953,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 282528
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 320000,
"effective_price": 320000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.6,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 120,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 573,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 693,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 329600,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 371200,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 64000,
"effective_price": 320000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.6,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 120,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 573,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2354,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 173225,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 214825,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 256000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1660,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1660,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 240322
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 16000,
"effective_price": 320000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.6,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 120,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 573,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2847,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 154849,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 196449,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 304000,
"monthly_mi": 152,
"monthly_pi": 2002,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2154,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 285852
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 11200,
"effective_price": 320000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.6,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 120,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 573,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2823,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 148600,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 190200,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 314204,
"monthly_mi": 144,
"monthly_pi": 1986,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2130,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 294129
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 320000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.6,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 120,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 573,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2790,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 135410,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 177010,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 320000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2097,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2097,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 300733
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 320000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.6,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 120,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 573,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2738,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 132279,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 173879,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 326880,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2045,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2045,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 305641
}
}
},
"id": "17bf43da8648",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"preferred_lender"
],
"negotiability_score": 64,
"original_price": 315115,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 320000,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": "4.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, preferred-lender requirement.",
"sqft": 1854,
"subdivision": "Preserve at Thousand Oaks",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "7801 Platinum Drive",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 57.28,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 39.92,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "907 Reynard Circle",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "907-reynard-circle-harker-heights",
"price": 198800,
"price_per_sqft": 109.65,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1813,
"sqft_delta": 0,
"subdivision": "Foxx Fire Meadow Add Amd",
"year_built": 1992
},
{
"address": "2209 Creek Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "2209-creek-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 260000,
"price_per_sqft": 143.49,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1812,
"sqft_delta": -1,
"subdivision": "Skipcha Mountain Estates Ph",
"year_built": 1993
},
{
"address": "1916 Stonehenge Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1916-stonehenge-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 280000,
"price_per_sqft": 155.04,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1806,
"sqft_delta": -7,
"subdivision": "Knights Ridge Ph One Sectio",
"year_built": 2004
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 907 Reynard Circle, 2209 Creek Drive, 1916 Stonehenge Drive, this new-construction card is $57/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 143.49,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 200.77,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Lagan Construction",
"city": "Killeen",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 75,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 200.77,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3114,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 197788,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -46575,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 437,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 200.77,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3174,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 201349,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -43014,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 497,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 198.76,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3002,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 211558,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -32805,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 325,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 200.77,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3212,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 216352,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -28011,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 535,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 200.77,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3239,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 223460,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -20903,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 562,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 200.77,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2677,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 244363,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 200.77,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 789,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 422240,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 177877,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1888,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 3640,
"down_payment": 18018,
"effective_price": 360360,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 198.76,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 135,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 646,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3002,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 164711,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 211558,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 342342,
"monthly_mi": 171,
"monthly_pi": 2050,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2221,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 25900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 321376
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 364000,
"effective_price": 364000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 200.77,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 136,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 652,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 789,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 374920,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 422240,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 25900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 72800,
"effective_price": 364000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 200.77,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 136,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 652,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2677,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 197043,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 244363,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 291200,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1889,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1889,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 25900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 273366
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 18200,
"effective_price": 364000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 200.77,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 136,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 652,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3239,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 176140,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 223460,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 345800,
"monthly_mi": 173,
"monthly_pi": 2277,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2450,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 25900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 325157
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 12740,
"effective_price": 364000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 200.77,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 136,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 652,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3212,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 169032,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 216352,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 357407,
"monthly_mi": 164,
"monthly_pi": 2259,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2423,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 25900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 334572
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 364000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 200.77,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 136,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 652,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3174,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 154029,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 201349,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 364000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2385,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2385,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 25900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 342084
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 364000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 200.77,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 136,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 652,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3114,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 150468,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 197788,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 371826,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2326,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2326,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 25900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 347667
}
}
},
"id": "d70874f05069",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"price_reduction"
],
"negotiability_score": 64,
"original_price": 389900,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 364000,
"price_cut": 25900,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, price reduction.",
"sqft": 1813,
"subdivision": "Heritage Oaks Ph 5 & 6",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "2912 Wolf Ridge Lane",
"apr": "5.691%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 5.41,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 3.35,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "8915 Sky Crest Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "8915-sky-crest-drive-temple",
"price": 129000,
"price_per_sqft": 77.85,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-14-2026-mls-templebelton.csv",
"sqft": 1657,
"sqft_delta": 0,
"subdivision": "Lake Pointe Terrace Ph I",
"year_built": 2020
},
{
"address": "412 Dandridge Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "412-dandridge-drive-temple",
"price": 289900,
"price_per_sqft": 175.06,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1656,
"sqft_delta": -1,
"subdivision": "Wyndham Hill",
"year_built": 2013
},
{
"address": "3512 Oglala Trail",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "3512-oglala-trail-temple",
"price": 268000,
"price_per_sqft": 161.54,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1659,
"sqft_delta": 2,
"subdivision": "Prairie Rdg Ph 2",
"year_built": 2022
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 8915 Sky Crest Drive, 412 Dandridge Drive, 3512 Oglala Trail, this new-construction card is $5/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 161.54,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 166.95,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Temple",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 49,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.95,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2367,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 150319,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -35397,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 332,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.95,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2412,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 153025,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -32691,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 377,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 165.28,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2282,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 160785,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -24931,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 247,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.95,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2441,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 164428,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -21288,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 406,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.95,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2462,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 169830,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -15886,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 427,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.95,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2035,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 185716,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.95,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 599,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 320902,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 135186,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1436,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 2766,
"down_payment": 13694,
"effective_price": 273874,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 165.28,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 103,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 491,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2282,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 125181,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 160785,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 260180,
"monthly_mi": 130,
"monthly_pi": 1558,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1688,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 244246
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 276640,
"effective_price": 276640,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.95,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 104,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 496,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 599,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 284939,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 320902,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 55328,
"effective_price": 276640,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.95,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 104,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 496,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2035,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 149753,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 185716,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 221312,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1435,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1435,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 207758
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 13832,
"effective_price": 276640,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.95,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 104,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 496,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2462,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 133867,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 169830,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 262808,
"monthly_mi": 131,
"monthly_pi": 1731,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1862,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 247119
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 9682,
"effective_price": 276640,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.95,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 104,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 496,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2441,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 128464,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 164428,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 271629,
"monthly_mi": 124,
"monthly_pi": 1717,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1841,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 254275
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 276640,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.95,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 104,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 496,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2412,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 117062,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 153025,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 276640,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1813,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1813,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 259984
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 276640,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.95,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 104,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 496,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2367,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 114355,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 150319,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 282588,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1768,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1768,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 264227
}
}
},
"id": "f3d50f98bb1d",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"preferred_lender"
],
"negotiability_score": 64,
"original_price": 276640,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 276640,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": "4.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, preferred-lender requirement.",
"sqft": 1657,
"subdivision": "Ridge at Knob Creek",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "1110 College Avenue",
"apr": "6.23%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": -38.45,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": -21.06,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "1503 E Calhoun Avenue",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1503-e-calhoun-avenue-temple",
"price": 184900,
"price_per_sqft": 157.23,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1176,
"sqft_delta": 2,
"subdivision": "Highland Terrace Annex Ph I",
"year_built": 1999
},
{
"address": "1607 Ridgeway Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1607-ridgeway-drive-temple",
"price": 214000,
"price_per_sqft": 182.59,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1172,
"sqft_delta": -2,
"subdivision": "Oak Hills Sec Two Ph Tw",
"year_built": 1988
},
{
"address": "1319 N 12th Street",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1319-n-12th-street-temple",
"price": 215000,
"price_per_sqft": 183.45,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1172,
"sqft_delta": -2,
"subdivision": "Patterson Add Ph One",
"year_built": 1996
}
],
"favorable": true,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 1503 E Calhoun Avenue, 1607 Ridgeway Drive, 1319 N 12th Street, this new-construction card is $38/sqft cheaper on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 182.59,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 144.14,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Troy",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 4,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 144.14,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1448,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 91948,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -21653,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 203,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 144.14,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1475,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 93604,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -19997,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 230,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 142.7,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1396,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 98350,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -15251,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 151,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 144.14,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1493,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 100579,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -13022,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 248,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 144.14,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1506,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 103883,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -9718,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 261,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 144.14,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1245,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 113601,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 144.14,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 367,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 196293,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 82692,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -878,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 1692,
"down_payment": 8376,
"effective_price": 167526,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 142.7,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 63,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 300,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1396,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 76572,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 98350,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 159150,
"monthly_mi": 80,
"monthly_pi": 953,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1033,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 34725,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 149403
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 169218,
"effective_price": 169218,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 144.14,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 63,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 303,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 367,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 174295,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 196293,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 34725,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 33844,
"effective_price": 169218,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 144.14,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 63,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 303,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1245,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 91602,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 113601,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 135374,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 878,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 878,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 34725,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 127084
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 8461,
"effective_price": 169218,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 144.14,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 63,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 303,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1506,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 81885,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 103883,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 160757,
"monthly_mi": 80,
"monthly_pi": 1059,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1139,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 34725,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 151160
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 5923,
"effective_price": 169218,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 144.14,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 63,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 303,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1493,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 78580,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 100579,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 166153,
"monthly_mi": 76,
"monthly_pi": 1050,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1126,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 34725,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 155537
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 169218,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 144.14,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 63,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 303,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1475,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 71606,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 93604,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 169218,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1109,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1109,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 34725,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 159030
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 169218,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 144.14,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 63,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 303,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1448,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 69950,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 91948,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 172856,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1081,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1081,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 34725,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 161625
}
}
},
"id": "3dcffa2c8537",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"preferred_lender",
"price_reduction",
"rate_buydown"
],
"negotiability_score": 64,
"original_price": 203943,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 169218,
"price_cut": 34725,
"rate": "2.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, preferred-lender requirement, price reduction, rate buydown language.",
"sqft": 1174,
"subdivision": "College Park",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "8905 Chalk Maple Drive",
"apr": "5.775%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 33.98,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 21.7,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "604 Totem Trail",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "604-totem-trail-harker-heights",
"price": 248000,
"price_per_sqft": 163.91,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1513,
"sqft_delta": 44,
"subdivision": "Skipcha Mountain Estates Ph",
"year_built": 1995
},
{
"address": "1100 Chablis Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1100-chablis-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 220000,
"price_per_sqft": 143.51,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1533,
"sqft_delta": 64,
"subdivision": "The Vineyard",
"year_built": 1994
},
{
"address": "304 Blackfoot Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "304-blackfoot-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 219900,
"price_per_sqft": 156.62,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1404,
"sqft_delta": -65,
"subdivision": "Skipcha Mountain Estates Ph",
"year_built": 1988
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 604 Totem Trail, 1100 Chablis Drive, 304 Blackfoot Drive, this new-construction card is $34/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 156.62,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 190.6,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": null,
"city": "Killeen",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 47,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 190.6,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2396,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 152139,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -35826,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 337,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 190.6,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2441,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 154878,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -33087,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 382,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 188.69,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2309,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 162731,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -25234,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 250,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 190.6,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2470,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 166419,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -21546,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 411,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 190.6,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2491,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 171886,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -16079,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 432,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 190.6,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2059,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 187965,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 190.6,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 607,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 324788,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 136823,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1452,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 2800,
"down_payment": 13860,
"effective_price": 277190,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 188.69,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 104,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 497,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2309,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 126696,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 162731,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 263330,
"monthly_mi": 132,
"monthly_pi": 1577,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1709,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 247203
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 279990,
"effective_price": 279990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 190.6,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 105,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 502,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 607,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 288390,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 324788,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 55998,
"effective_price": 279990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 190.6,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 105,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 502,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2059,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 151566,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 187965,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 223992,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1453,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1453,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 210274
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 14000,
"effective_price": 279990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 190.6,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 105,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 502,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2491,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 135488,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 171886,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 265990,
"monthly_mi": 133,
"monthly_pi": 1752,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1885,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 250112
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 9800,
"effective_price": 279990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 190.6,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 105,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 502,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2470,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 130020,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 166419,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 274919,
"monthly_mi": 126,
"monthly_pi": 1738,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1864,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 257354
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 279990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 190.6,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 105,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 502,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2441,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 118479,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 154878,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 279990,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1835,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1835,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 263132
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 279990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 190.6,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 105,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 502,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2396,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 115740,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 152139,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 286010,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1789,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1789,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 267427
}
}
},
"id": "15d5a42e65d9",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"preferred_lender"
],
"negotiability_score": 63,
"original_price": 274490,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 279990,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": "4.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, preferred-lender requirement.",
"sqft": 1469,
"subdivision": "Preserve at Thousand Oaks",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "610 Campus Street",
"apr": "6.23%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": -20.76,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": -11.37,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "1503 E Calhoun Avenue",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1503-e-calhoun-avenue-temple",
"price": 184900,
"price_per_sqft": 157.23,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1176,
"sqft_delta": 2,
"subdivision": "Highland Terrace Annex Ph I",
"year_built": 1999
},
{
"address": "1607 Ridgeway Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1607-ridgeway-drive-temple",
"price": 214000,
"price_per_sqft": 182.59,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1172,
"sqft_delta": -2,
"subdivision": "Oak Hills Sec Two Ph Tw",
"year_built": 1988
},
{
"address": "1319 N 12th Street",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1319-n-12th-street-temple",
"price": 215000,
"price_per_sqft": 183.45,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1172,
"sqft_delta": -2,
"subdivision": "Patterson Add Ph One",
"year_built": 1996
}
],
"favorable": true,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 1503 E Calhoun Avenue, 1607 Ridgeway Drive, 1319 N 12th Street, this new-construction card is $21/sqft cheaper on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 182.59,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 161.83,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Troy",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 47,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 161.83,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1626,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 103235,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -24310,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 229,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 161.83,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1657,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 105094,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -22451,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 260,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 160.21,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1567,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 110423,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -17122,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 170,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 161.83,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1676,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 112925,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -14620,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 279,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 161.83,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1691,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 116635,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -10910,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 294,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 161.83,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1397,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 127545,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 161.83,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 412,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 220388,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 92843,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -985,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 1900,
"down_payment": 9404,
"effective_price": 188090,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 160.21,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 71,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 337,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1567,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 85971,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 110423,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 178686,
"monthly_mi": 89,
"monthly_pi": 1070,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1160,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 167742
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 189990,
"effective_price": 189990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 161.83,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 71,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 340,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 412,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 195690,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 220388,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 37998,
"effective_price": 189990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 161.83,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 71,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 340,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1397,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 102847,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 127545,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 151992,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 986,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 986,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 142684
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 9500,
"effective_price": 189990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 161.83,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 71,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 340,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1691,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 91937,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 116635,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 180490,
"monthly_mi": 90,
"monthly_pi": 1189,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1279,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 169716
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 6650,
"effective_price": 189990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 161.83,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 71,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 340,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1676,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 88226,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 112925,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 186549,
"monthly_mi": 86,
"monthly_pi": 1179,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1265,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 174630
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 189990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 161.83,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 71,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 340,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1657,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 80395,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 105094,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 189990,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1245,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1245,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 178551
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 189990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 161.83,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 71,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 340,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1626,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 78537,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 103235,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 194075,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1214,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1214,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 181465
}
}
},
"id": "2bc9103be400",
"incentive_types": [
"closing_costs",
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"preferred_lender"
],
"negotiability_score": 63,
"original_price": 179990,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 189990,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": "4.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: closing-cost concession language, limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, preferred-lender requirement.",
"sqft": 1174,
"subdivision": "College Park",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "715 Liberty Park Drive",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 3.32,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 2.03,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "11 E AZTEC Lane",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "11-e-aztec-lane-belton",
"price": 320000,
"price_per_sqft": 163.18,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1961,
"sqft_delta": 12,
"subdivision": "Morgans Point Resort Sec 5",
"year_built": 2015
},
{
"address": "3632 North Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "3632-north-drive-belton",
"price": 459900,
"price_per_sqft": 237.43,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1937,
"sqft_delta": -12,
"subdivision": "Pine Terrace Sub",
"year_built": 1996
},
{
"address": "3172 Auction Barn Road",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "3172-auction-barn-road-belton",
"price": 290000,
"price_per_sqft": 147.81,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1962,
"sqft_delta": 13,
"subdivision": "Rolling Acres Sec I",
"year_built": 1986
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 11 E AZTEC Lane, 3632 North Drive, 3172 Auction Barn Road, this new-construction card is $3/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 163.18,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 166.5,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Nirmaan Builders LLC",
"city": "Belton",
"closing_credit": 10000,
"dom": 48,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.5,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2776,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 166624,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -41522,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 389,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.5,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2829,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 169799,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -38347,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 442,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.5,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2863,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 183174,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -24972,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 476,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.5,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2704,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 183985,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -24161,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 317,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.5,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2888,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 189511,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -18635,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 501,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.5,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2387,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 208146,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.5,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 703,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 366720,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 158574,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1684,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 16225,
"effective_price": 324500,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.5,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 122,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 581,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2704,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 141800,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 183985,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 308275,
"monthly_mi": 154,
"monthly_pi": 1846,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2000,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 5400,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 289395
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 324500,
"effective_price": 324500,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.5,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 122,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 581,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 703,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 324535,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 366720,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 5400,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 64900,
"effective_price": 324500,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.5,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 122,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 581,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2387,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 165961,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 208146,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 259600,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1684,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1684,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 5400,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 243701
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 16225,
"effective_price": 324500,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.5,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 122,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 581,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2888,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 147326,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 189511,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 308275,
"monthly_mi": 154,
"monthly_pi": 2030,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2184,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 5400,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 289872
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 11358,
"effective_price": 324500,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.5,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 122,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 581,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2863,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 140989,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 183174,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 318622,
"monthly_mi": 146,
"monthly_pi": 2014,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2160,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 5400,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 298266
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 324500,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.5,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 122,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 581,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2829,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 127614,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 169799,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 324500,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2126,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2126,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 5400,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 304962
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 324500,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.5,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 122,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 581,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2776,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 124439,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 166624,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 331477,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2073,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2073,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 5400,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 309939
}
}
},
"id": "896138123a5f",
"incentive_types": [
"preferred_lender",
"price_reduction"
],
"negotiability_score": 60,
"original_price": 339900,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 334500,
"price_cut": 5400,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: preferred-lender requirement, price reduction.",
"sqft": 1949,
"subdivision": "Liberty Park",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "1102 Nacogdoches Drive",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": -6.28,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": -3.96,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "9107 Sky Crest Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "9107-sky-crest-drive-temple",
"price": 274900,
"price_per_sqft": 158.44,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1735,
"sqft_delta": 0,
"subdivision": "Lake Pointe Terrace Ph I",
"year_built": 2020
},
{
"address": "827 Kacie Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "827-kacie-drive-temple",
"price": 268000,
"price_per_sqft": 154.56,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1734,
"sqft_delta": -1,
"subdivision": "Canyon Ridge Ph III",
"year_built": 2017
},
{
"address": "16035 Brazos Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "16035-brazos-drive-temple",
"price": 354500,
"price_per_sqft": 204.44,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1734,
"sqft_delta": -1,
"subdivision": "Tanglewood",
"year_built": 2017
}
],
"favorable": true,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 9107 Sky Crest Drive, 827 Kacie Drive, 16035 Brazos Drive, this new-construction card is $6/sqft cheaper on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 158.44,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 152.16,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Central Hacienda",
"city": "Temple",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 63,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 152.16,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2259,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 143450,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -33780,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 317,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 152.16,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2302,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 146033,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -31197,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 360,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 150.64,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2177,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 153438,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -23792,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 235,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 152.16,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2329,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 156915,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -20315,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 387,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 152.16,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2349,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 162070,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -15160,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 407,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 152.16,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1942,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 177230,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 152.16,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 572,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 306240,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 129010,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1370,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 2640,
"down_payment": 13068,
"effective_price": 261360,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 150.64,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 98,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 468,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2177,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 119461,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 153438,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 248292,
"monthly_mi": 124,
"monthly_pi": 1487,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1611,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 15000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 233086
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 264000,
"effective_price": 264000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 152.16,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 99,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 473,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 572,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 271920,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 306240,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 15000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 52800,
"effective_price": 264000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 152.16,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 99,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 473,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1942,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 142910,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 177230,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 211200,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1370,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1370,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 15000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 198265
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 13200,
"effective_price": 264000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 152.16,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 99,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 473,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2349,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 127750,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 162070,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 250800,
"monthly_mi": 125,
"monthly_pi": 1652,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1777,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 15000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 235828
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 9240,
"effective_price": 264000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 152.16,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 99,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 473,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2329,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 122595,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 156915,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 259218,
"monthly_mi": 119,
"monthly_pi": 1638,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1757,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 15000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 242657
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 264000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 152.16,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 99,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 473,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2302,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 111713,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 146033,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 264000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1730,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1730,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 15000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 248105
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 264000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 152.16,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 99,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 473,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2259,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 109130,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 143450,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 269676,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1687,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1687,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 15000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 252154
}
}
},
"id": "01057bf8e65b",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"price_reduction"
],
"negotiability_score": 60,
"original_price": 279000,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 264000,
"price_cut": 15000,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, price reduction.",
"sqft": 1735,
"subdivision": "County View Add",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "5809 Whippoorwill Road",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 88.07,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 65.83,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "2701 Wren Circle",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "2701-wren-circle-temple",
"price": 320000,
"price_per_sqft": 133.78,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2392,
"sqft_delta": 3,
"subdivision": "Oakwoods 1st",
"year_built": 1970
},
{
"address": "1205 Larkspur Lane",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "1205-larkspur-lane-temple",
"price": 519000,
"price_per_sqft": 217.7,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2384,
"sqft_delta": -5,
"subdivision": "Wildflower Country Club Pt O",
"year_built": 1999
},
{
"address": "3605 Buffalo Trail",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "3605-buffalo-trail-temple",
"price": 256750,
"price_per_sqft": 107.16,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-14-2026-mls-templebelton.csv",
"sqft": 2396,
"sqft_delta": 7,
"subdivision": "Western Hills",
"year_built": 1983
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 2701 Wren Circle, 1205 Larkspur Lane, 3605 Buffalo Trail, this new-construction card is $88/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 133.78,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 221.85,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Hodges Eagle Ridge Builders",
"city": "Temple",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 32,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 221.85,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4535,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 287987,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -67816,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 637,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 221.85,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4621,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 293172,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -62631,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 723,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 219.63,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4371,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 308037,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -47766,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 473,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 221.85,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4676,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 315018,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -40785,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 778,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 221.85,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4716,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 325368,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -30435,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 818,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 221.85,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3898,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 355803,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 221.85,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1148,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 614800,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 258997,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -2750,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 5300,
"down_payment": 26235,
"effective_price": 524700,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 219.63,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 197,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 940,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4371,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 239826,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 308037,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 498465,
"monthly_mi": 249,
"monthly_pi": 2985,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3235,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 7900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 467938
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 530000,
"effective_price": 530000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 221.85,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 199,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 950,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1148,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 545900,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 614800,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 7900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 106000,
"effective_price": 530000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 221.85,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 199,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 950,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3898,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 286903,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 355803,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 424000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2750,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2750,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 7900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 398033
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 26500,
"effective_price": 530000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 221.85,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 199,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 950,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4716,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 256468,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 325368,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 503500,
"monthly_mi": 252,
"monthly_pi": 3316,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3568,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 7900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 473443
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 18550,
"effective_price": 530000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 221.85,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 199,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 950,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4676,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 246118,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 315018,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 520400,
"monthly_mi": 239,
"monthly_pi": 3289,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3528,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 7900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 487152
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 530000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 221.85,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 199,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 950,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4621,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 224272,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 293172,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 530000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3473,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3473,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 7900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 498089
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 530000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 221.85,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 199,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 950,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4535,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 219087,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 287987,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 541395,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3386,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3386,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 7900,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 506218
}
}
},
"id": "52a4bf0b7b7d",
"incentive_types": [
"builder_concession",
"closing_costs",
"price_reduction",
"title_policy_survey"
],
"negotiability_score": 60,
"original_price": 537900,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 530000,
"price_cut": 7900,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: builder concession language, closing-cost concession language, price reduction, title policy or survey language.",
"sqft": 2389,
"subdivision": "Hartrick Crossing",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "8911 Chalk Maple Drive",
"apr": "5.775%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 17.61,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 11.7,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "308 Live Oak Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "308-live-oak-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 335000,
"price_per_sqft": 180.89,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1852,
"sqft_delta": -2,
"subdivision": "Highland Oaks Estates Sec",
"year_built": 1973
},
{
"address": "220 W Mockingbird Ln",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "220-w-mockingbird-ln-harker-heights",
"price": 235000,
"price_per_sqft": 126.96,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1851,
"sqft_delta": -3,
"subdivision": "",
"year_built": 1975
},
{
"address": "1711 Lynx Circle",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1711-lynx-circle-harker-heights",
"price": 280000,
"price_per_sqft": 150.54,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1860,
"sqft_delta": 6,
"subdivision": "Country Trails Add 6th Ph",
"year_built": 1993
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 308 Live Oak Drive, 220 W Mockingbird Ln, 1711 Lynx Circle, this new-construction card is $18/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 150.54,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 168.15,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Killeen",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 4,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 168.15,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2667,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 169400,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -39891,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 374,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 168.15,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2718,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 172450,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -36841,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 425,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.47,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2571,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 181193,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -28098,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 278,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 168.15,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2751,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 185300,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -23991,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 458,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 168.15,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2774,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 191388,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -17903,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 481,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 168.15,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2293,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 209291,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 168.15,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 675,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 361638,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 152347,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1618,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 3118,
"down_payment": 15432,
"effective_price": 308639,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 166.47,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 116,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 553,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2571,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 141070,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 181193,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 293207,
"monthly_mi": 147,
"monthly_pi": 1756,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1903,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 2000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 275250
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 311757,
"effective_price": 311757,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 168.15,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 117,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 559,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 675,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 321110,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 361638,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 2000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 62351,
"effective_price": 311757,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 168.15,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 117,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 559,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2293,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 168763,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 209291,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 249406,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1618,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1618,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 2000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 234131
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 15588,
"effective_price": 311757,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 168.15,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 117,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 559,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2774,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 150860,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 191388,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 296169,
"monthly_mi": 148,
"monthly_pi": 1951,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2099,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 2000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 278489
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 10911,
"effective_price": 311757,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 168.15,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 117,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 559,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2751,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 144772,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 185300,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 306110,
"monthly_mi": 140,
"monthly_pi": 1935,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2075,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 2000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 286553
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 311757,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 168.15,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 117,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 559,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2718,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 131922,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 172450,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 311757,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2043,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2043,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 2000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 292986
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 311757,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 168.15,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 117,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 559,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2667,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 128872,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 169400,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 318460,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1992,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1992,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 2000,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 297768
}
}
},
"id": "182cad0b1286",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"price_reduction"
],
"negotiability_score": 59,
"original_price": 313757,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 311757,
"price_cut": 2000,
"rate": "4.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, price reduction.",
"sqft": 1854,
"subdivision": "Preserve at Thousand Oaks",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "1804 Gigante Drive",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 30.53,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 19.76,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "604 Totem Trail",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "604-totem-trail-harker-heights",
"price": 248000,
"price_per_sqft": 163.91,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1513,
"sqft_delta": 8,
"subdivision": "Skipcha Mountain Estates Ph",
"year_built": 1995
},
{
"address": "1100 Chablis Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1100-chablis-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 220000,
"price_per_sqft": 143.51,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1533,
"sqft_delta": 28,
"subdivision": "The Vineyard",
"year_built": 1994
},
{
"address": "2010 Shadow Ridge Road",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "2010-shadow-ridge-road-harker-heights",
"price": 238500,
"price_per_sqft": 154.47,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1544,
"sqft_delta": 39,
"subdivision": "Whitten Place",
"year_built": 1993
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 604 Totem Trail, 1100 Chablis Drive, 2010 Shadow Ridge Road, this new-construction card is $31/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 154.47,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 185.0,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Summit Valor Homes",
"city": "Killeen",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 103,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.0,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2382,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 151289,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -35625,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 334,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.0,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2428,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 154012,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -32902,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 380,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 183.15,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2296,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 161822,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -25092,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 248,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.0,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2457,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 165489,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -21425,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 409,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.0,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2478,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 170926,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -15988,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 430,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.0,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2048,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 186914,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.0,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 603,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 322973,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 136059,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1445,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 2784,
"down_payment": 13782,
"effective_price": 275641,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 183.15,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 103,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 494,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2296,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 125988,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 161822,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 261859,
"monthly_mi": 131,
"monthly_pi": 1568,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1699,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 245822
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 278425,
"effective_price": 278425,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.0,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 104,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 499,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 603,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 286778,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 322973,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 55685,
"effective_price": 278425,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.0,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 104,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 499,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2048,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 150719,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 186914,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 222740,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1445,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1445,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 209099
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 13921,
"effective_price": 278425,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.0,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 104,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 499,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2478,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 134730,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 170926,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 264504,
"monthly_mi": 132,
"monthly_pi": 1742,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1874,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 248714
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 9745,
"effective_price": 278425,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.0,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 104,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 499,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2457,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 129293,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 165489,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 273382,
"monthly_mi": 125,
"monthly_pi": 1728,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1853,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 255916
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 278425,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.0,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 104,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 499,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2428,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 117817,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 154012,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 278425,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1824,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1824,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 261661
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 278425,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.0,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 104,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 499,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2382,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 115093,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 151289,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 284411,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1779,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1779,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 265932
}
}
},
"id": "e47b4324b661",
"incentive_types": [
"builder_concession",
"closing_costs"
],
"negotiability_score": 58,
"original_price": 278425,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 278425,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: builder concession language, closing-cost concession language.",
"sqft": 1505,
"subdivision": "Lakeview Park Sub",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "1417 Fossil Trail",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": -11.35,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": -6.62,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "5700 Redfish Court",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "5700-redfish-court-belton",
"price": 350000,
"price_per_sqft": 171.48,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2041,
"sqft_delta": -4,
"subdivision": "Three Creeks",
"year_built": 2022
},
{
"address": "166 Mountain Rose Road",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "166-mountain-rose-road-belton",
"price": 425000,
"price_per_sqft": 209.26,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2031,
"sqft_delta": -14,
"subdivision": "High Crest Ph II",
"year_built": 2017
},
{
"address": "4601 Abergavenny Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "4601-abergavenny-drive-belton",
"price": 310000,
"price_per_sqft": 150.49,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2060,
"sqft_delta": 15,
"subdivision": "Three Creeks Ph I",
"year_built": 2015
}
],
"favorable": true,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 5700 Redfish Court, 166 Mountain Rose Road, 4601 Abergavenny Drive, this new-construction card is $11/sqft cheaper on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 171.48,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 160.13,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": null,
"city": "Belton",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 313,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 160.13,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2802,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 177941,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -41902,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 393,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 160.13,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2855,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 181145,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -38698,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 446,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 158.53,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2701,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 190329,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -29514,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 292,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 160.13,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2889,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 194643,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -25200,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 480,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 160.13,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2914,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 201038,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -18805,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 505,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 160.13,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2409,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 219843,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 160.13,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 710,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 379871,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 160028,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1699,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 3275,
"down_payment": 16210,
"effective_price": 324200,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 158.53,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 122,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 581,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2701,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 148183,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 190329,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 307990,
"monthly_mi": 154,
"monthly_pi": 1845,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1999,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 289128
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 327475,
"effective_price": 327475,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 160.13,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 123,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 587,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 710,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 337299,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 379871,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 65495,
"effective_price": 327475,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 160.13,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 123,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 587,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2409,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 177271,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 219843,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 261980,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1699,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1699,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 245936
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 16374,
"effective_price": 327475,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 160.13,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 123,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 587,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2914,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 158466,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 201038,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 311101,
"monthly_mi": 156,
"monthly_pi": 2049,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2204,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 292529
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 11462,
"effective_price": 327475,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 160.13,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 123,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 587,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2889,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 152071,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 194643,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 321544,
"monthly_mi": 147,
"monthly_pi": 2032,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2180,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 301000
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 327475,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 160.13,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 123,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 587,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2855,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 138573,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 181145,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 327475,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2146,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2146,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 307758
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 327475,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 160.13,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 123,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 587,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2802,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 135369,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 177941,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 334516,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2092,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2092,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 312781
}
}
},
"id": "88265df6d2be",
"incentive_types": [
"preferred_lender"
],
"negotiability_score": 57,
"original_price": 327475,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 327475,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: preferred-lender requirement.",
"sqft": 2045,
"subdivision": "Hubbard Branch Subd.",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "3703 Southern Catalpa Drive",
"apr": "6.23%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 40.9,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 26.42,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "1602 Indian Trail",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1602-indian-trail-harker-heights",
"price": 165000,
"price_per_sqft": 122.04,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1352,
"sqft_delta": -8,
"subdivision": "Comanche Land 1st Unit",
"year_built": 1982
},
{
"address": "4214 Broken Arrow Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "4214-broken-arrow-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 239700,
"price_per_sqft": 174.71,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1372,
"sqft_delta": 12,
"subdivision": "Broken Arrow Lake Estates Sec",
"year_built": 1977
},
{
"address": "1102 Chablis Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1102-chablis-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 214900,
"price_per_sqft": 154.83,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1388,
"sqft_delta": 28,
"subdivision": "The Vineyard",
"year_built": 1994
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 1602 Indian Trail, 4214 Broken Arrow Drive, 1102 Chablis Drive, this new-construction card is $41/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 154.83,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 195.73,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Killeen",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 28,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 195.73,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2278,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 144640,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -34061,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 320,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 195.73,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2321,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 147244,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -31457,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 363,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 193.77,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2196,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 154710,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -23991,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 238,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 195.73,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2349,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 158216,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -20485,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 391,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 195.73,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2369,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 163415,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -15286,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 411,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 195.73,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1958,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 178701,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 195.73,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 577,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 308780,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 130079,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1381,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 2662,
"down_payment": 13176,
"effective_price": 263528,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 193.77,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 99,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 472,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2196,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 120452,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 154710,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 250352,
"monthly_mi": 125,
"monthly_pi": 1499,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1625,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 235019
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 266190,
"effective_price": 266190,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 195.73,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 100,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 477,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 577,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 274176,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 308780,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 53238,
"effective_price": 266190,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 195.73,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 100,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 477,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1958,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 144096,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 178701,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 212952,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1381,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1381,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 199910
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 13310,
"effective_price": 266190,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 195.73,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 100,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 477,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2369,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 128810,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 163415,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 252880,
"monthly_mi": 126,
"monthly_pi": 1665,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1792,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 237784
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 9317,
"effective_price": 266190,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 195.73,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 100,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 477,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2349,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 123612,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 158216,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 261369,
"monthly_mi": 120,
"monthly_pi": 1652,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1772,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 244670
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 266190,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 195.73,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 100,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 477,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2321,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 112640,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 147244,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 266190,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1744,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1744,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 250163
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 266190,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 195.73,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 100,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 477,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2278,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 110036,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 144640,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 271913,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1701,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1701,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 254246
}
}
},
"id": "e167031939e1",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"preferred_lender",
"rate_buydown"
],
"negotiability_score": 57,
"original_price": 266190,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 266190,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": "2.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, preferred-lender requirement, rate buydown language.",
"sqft": 1360,
"subdivision": "Preserve at Thousand Oaks",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "6781 Kings Mill Drive",
"apr": "5.691%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 82.12,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 45.88,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "707 Eagle View Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "707-eagle-view-drive-salado",
"price": 449500,
"price_per_sqft": 172.69,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2603,
"sqft_delta": -16,
"subdivision": "Eagle Heights",
"year_built": 2022
},
{
"address": "930 Inka Road",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "930-inka-road-salado",
"price": 665900,
"price_per_sqft": 255.92,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2602,
"sqft_delta": -17,
"subdivision": "Overlook/Salado",
"year_built": 2023
},
{
"address": "1431 King Ranch Road",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "1431-king-ranch-road-salado",
"price": 465000,
"price_per_sqft": 178.98,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2598,
"sqft_delta": -21,
"subdivision": "Flint Ridge Estates",
"year_built": 2022
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 707 Eagle View Drive, 930 Inka Road, 1431 King Ranch Road, this new-construction card is $82/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 178.98,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 261.1,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Salado",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 29,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 261.1,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5851,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 371566,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -87498,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 821,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 261.1,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5962,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 378256,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -80808,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 932,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 258.49,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5640,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 397435,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -61629,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 610,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 261.1,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6033,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 406442,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -52622,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 1003,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 261.1,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6085,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 419795,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -39269,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 1055,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 261.1,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5030,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 459064,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 261.1,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1482,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 793225,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 334161,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -3548,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 6838,
"down_payment": 33849,
"effective_price": 676977,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 258.49,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 254,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1213,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5640,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 309428,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 397435,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 643128,
"monthly_mi": 322,
"monthly_pi": 3852,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4173,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 603741
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 683815,
"effective_price": 683815,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 261.1,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 256,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1225,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1482,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 704329,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 793225,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 136763,
"effective_price": 683815,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 261.1,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 256,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1225,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5030,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 370168,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 459064,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 547052,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3548,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3548,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 513549
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 34191,
"effective_price": 683815,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 261.1,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 256,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1225,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6085,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 330899,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 419795,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 649624,
"monthly_mi": 325,
"monthly_pi": 4278,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4603,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 610844
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 23934,
"effective_price": 683815,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 261.1,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 256,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1225,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6033,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 317546,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 406442,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 671429,
"monthly_mi": 308,
"monthly_pi": 4244,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4552,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 628532
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 683815,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 261.1,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 256,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1225,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5962,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 289360,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 378256,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 683815,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 4481,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4481,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 642643
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 683815,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 261.1,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 256,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1225,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5851,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 282670,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 371566,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 698517,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 4369,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4369,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 653131
}
}
},
"id": "4cba6e45984c",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"preferred_lender"
],
"negotiability_score": 57,
"original_price": 683815,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 683815,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": "4.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, preferred-lender requirement.",
"sqft": 2619,
"subdivision": "King Oaks",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "1209 Peppermint Drive",
"apr": "5.691%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 42.36,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 29.39,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "4413 Lone Star Trail",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "4413-lone-star-trail-temple",
"price": 197000,
"price_per_sqft": 144.11,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1367,
"sqft_delta": -1,
"subdivision": "Canyon Creek Ph IV",
"year_built": 1986
},
{
"address": "1121 Spring Terrace Loop",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "1121-spring-terrace-loop-temple",
"price": 250000,
"price_per_sqft": 182.48,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1370,
"sqft_delta": 2,
"subdivision": "Westfield Development",
"year_built": 2020
},
{
"address": "1719 S 39th Street",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "1719-s-39th-street-temple",
"price": 165000,
"price_per_sqft": 120.35,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1371,
"sqft_delta": 3,
"subdivision": "Dubose Add Blks 1-7",
"year_built": 1954
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 4413 Lone Star Trail, 1121 Spring Terrace Loop, 1719 S 39th Street, this new-construction card is $42/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 144.11,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 186.47,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Temple",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 29,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 186.47,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2183,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 138609,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -32640,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 307,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 186.47,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2224,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 141104,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -30145,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 348,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 184.6,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2104,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 148259,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -22990,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 228,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 186.47,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2251,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 151619,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -19630,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 375,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 186.47,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2270,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 156600,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -14649,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 394,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 186.47,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1876,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 171249,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 186.47,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 553,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 295904,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 124655,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1323,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 2551,
"down_payment": 12627,
"effective_price": 252539,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 184.6,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 95,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 452,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2104,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 115429,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 148259,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 239912,
"monthly_mi": 120,
"monthly_pi": 1437,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1557,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 225219
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 255090,
"effective_price": 255090,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 186.47,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 96,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 457,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 553,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 262743,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 295904,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 51018,
"effective_price": 255090,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 186.47,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 96,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 457,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1876,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 138087,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 171249,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 204072,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1324,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1324,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 191574
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 12754,
"effective_price": 255090,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 186.47,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 96,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 457,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2270,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 123439,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 156600,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 242336,
"monthly_mi": 121,
"monthly_pi": 1596,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1717,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 227869
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 8928,
"effective_price": 255090,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 186.47,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 96,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 457,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2251,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 118457,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 151619,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 250470,
"monthly_mi": 115,
"monthly_pi": 1583,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1698,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 234467
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 255090,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 186.47,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 96,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 457,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2224,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 107943,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 141104,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 255090,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1672,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1672,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 239731
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 255090,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 186.47,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 96,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 457,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2183,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 105447,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 138609,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 260574,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1630,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1630,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 243644
}
}
},
"id": "e4b5affb9002",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"preferred_lender"
],
"negotiability_score": 57,
"original_price": 255090,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 255090,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": "4.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, preferred-lender requirement.",
"sqft": 1368,
"subdivision": "Oak Ridge",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "1218 Cilantro Road",
"apr": "5.691%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 44.77,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 31.07,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "4413 Lone Star Trail",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "4413-lone-star-trail-temple",
"price": 197000,
"price_per_sqft": 144.11,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1367,
"sqft_delta": -1,
"subdivision": "Canyon Creek Ph IV",
"year_built": 1986
},
{
"address": "1121 Spring Terrace Loop",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "1121-spring-terrace-loop-temple",
"price": 250000,
"price_per_sqft": 182.48,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1370,
"sqft_delta": 2,
"subdivision": "Westfield Development",
"year_built": 2020
},
{
"address": "1719 S 39th Street",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "1719-s-39th-street-temple",
"price": 165000,
"price_per_sqft": 120.35,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1371,
"sqft_delta": 3,
"subdivision": "Dubose Add Blks 1-7",
"year_built": 1954
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 4413 Lone Star Trail, 1121 Spring Terrace Loop, 1719 S 39th Street, this new-construction card is $45/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 144.11,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 188.88,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Temple",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 29,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 188.88,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2211,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 140402,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -33062,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 310,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 188.88,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2253,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 142930,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -30534,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 352,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 186.99,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2131,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 150177,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -23287,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 230,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 188.88,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2280,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 153580,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -19884,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 379,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 188.88,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2299,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 158626,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -14838,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 398,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 188.88,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1901,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 173464,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 188.88,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 560,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 299732,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 126268,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1341,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 2584,
"down_payment": 12790,
"effective_price": 255806,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 186.99,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 96,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 458,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2131,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 116922,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 150177,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 243016,
"monthly_mi": 122,
"monthly_pi": 1455,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1577,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 228133
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 258390,
"effective_price": 258390,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 188.88,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 97,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 463,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 560,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 266142,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 299732,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 51678,
"effective_price": 258390,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 188.88,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 97,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 463,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1901,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 139874,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 173464,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 206712,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1341,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1341,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 194052
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 12920,
"effective_price": 258390,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 188.88,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 97,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 463,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2299,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 125035,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 158626,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 245470,
"monthly_mi": 123,
"monthly_pi": 1617,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1739,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 230817
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 9044,
"effective_price": 258390,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 188.88,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 97,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 463,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2280,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 119990,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 153580,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 253710,
"monthly_mi": 116,
"monthly_pi": 1604,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1720,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 237500
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 258390,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 188.88,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 97,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 463,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2253,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 109339,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 142930,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 258390,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1693,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1693,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 242833
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 258390,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 188.88,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 97,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 463,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2211,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 106811,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 140402,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 263945,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1651,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1651,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 246796
}
}
},
"id": "b54a16ae1831",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"preferred_lender"
],
"negotiability_score": 57,
"original_price": 258390,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 258390,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": "4.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, preferred-lender requirement.",
"sqft": 1368,
"subdivision": "Oak Ridge",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "8805 Ponderosa Pine Road",
"apr": "5.691%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 33.8,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 20.86,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "7405 Buffalo Grass Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "7405-buffalo-grass-drive-temple",
"price": 247000,
"price_per_sqft": 181.48,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1361,
"sqft_delta": 1,
"subdivision": "Villages/Westfield Ph II",
"year_built": 2020
},
{
"address": "4714 Buckskin Trail",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "4714-buckskin-trail-temple",
"price": 220000,
"price_per_sqft": 162.0,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1358,
"sqft_delta": -2,
"subdivision": "Stratford Place Ph I",
"year_built": 1989
},
{
"address": "4413 Lone Star Trail",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "4413-lone-star-trail-temple",
"price": 197000,
"price_per_sqft": 144.11,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1367,
"sqft_delta": 7,
"subdivision": "Canyon Creek Ph IV",
"year_built": 1986
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 7405 Buffalo Grass Drive, 4714 Buckskin Trail, 4413 Lone Star Trail, this new-construction card is $34/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 162.0,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 195.8,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Temple",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 29,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 195.8,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2278,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 144695,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -34073,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 319,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 195.8,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2322,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 147300,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -31468,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 363,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 193.84,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2196,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 154768,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -24000,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 237,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 195.8,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2349,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 158276,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -20492,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 390,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 195.8,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2370,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 163476,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -15292,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 411,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 195.8,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1959,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 178768,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 195.8,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 577,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 308896,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 130128,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1382,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 2663,
"down_payment": 13181,
"effective_price": 263627,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 193.84,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 99,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 472,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2196,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 120497,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 154768,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 250446,
"monthly_mi": 125,
"monthly_pi": 1500,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1625,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 235108
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 266290,
"effective_price": 266290,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 195.8,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 100,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 477,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 577,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 274279,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 308896,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 53258,
"effective_price": 266290,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 195.8,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 100,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 477,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1959,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 144150,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 178768,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 213032,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1382,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1382,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 199985
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 13314,
"effective_price": 266290,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 195.8,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 100,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 477,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2370,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 128858,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 163476,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 252976,
"monthly_mi": 126,
"monthly_pi": 1666,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1793,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 237874
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 9320,
"effective_price": 266290,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 195.8,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 100,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 477,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2349,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 123658,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 158276,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 261467,
"monthly_mi": 120,
"monthly_pi": 1653,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1772,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 244762
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 266290,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 195.8,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 100,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 477,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2322,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 112682,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 147300,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 266290,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1745,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1745,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 250257
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 266290,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 195.8,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 100,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 477,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2278,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 110077,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 144695,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 272015,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1701,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1701,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 254341
}
}
},
"id": "93b74e8006b5",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"preferred_lender"
],
"negotiability_score": 57,
"original_price": 266290,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 266290,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": "4.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, preferred-lender requirement.",
"sqft": 1360,
"subdivision": "Mesa Ridge",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "1213 Peppermint Drive",
"apr": "5.691%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 1.25,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 0.77,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "8915 Sky Crest Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "8915-sky-crest-drive-temple",
"price": 129000,
"price_per_sqft": 77.85,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-14-2026-mls-templebelton.csv",
"sqft": 1657,
"sqft_delta": 0,
"subdivision": "Lake Pointe Terrace Ph I",
"year_built": 2020
},
{
"address": "412 Dandridge Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "412-dandridge-drive-temple",
"price": 289900,
"price_per_sqft": 175.06,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1656,
"sqft_delta": -1,
"subdivision": "Wyndham Hill",
"year_built": 2013
},
{
"address": "3512 Oglala Trail",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "3512-oglala-trail-temple",
"price": 268000,
"price_per_sqft": 161.54,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1659,
"sqft_delta": 2,
"subdivision": "Prairie Rdg Ph 2",
"year_built": 2022
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 8915 Sky Crest Drive, 412 Dandridge Drive, 3512 Oglala Trail, this new-construction card is $1/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 161.54,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 162.79,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Temple",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 29,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 162.79,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2308,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 146572,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -34515,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 324,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 162.79,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2352,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 149211,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -31876,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 368,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 161.16,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2225,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 156777,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -24310,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 241,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 162.79,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2380,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 160329,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -20758,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 396,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 162.79,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2400,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 165597,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -15490,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 416,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 162.79,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1984,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 181087,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 162.79,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 584,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 312904,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 131817,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1400,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 2697,
"down_payment": 13352,
"effective_price": 267048,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 161.16,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 100,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 478,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2225,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 122061,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 156777,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 253696,
"monthly_mi": 127,
"monthly_pi": 1519,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1646,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 238159
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 269745,
"effective_price": 269745,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 162.79,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 101,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 483,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 584,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 277837,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 312904,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 53949,
"effective_price": 269745,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 162.79,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 101,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 483,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1984,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 146020,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 181087,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 215796,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1400,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1400,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 202580
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 13487,
"effective_price": 269745,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 162.79,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 101,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 483,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2400,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 130530,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 165597,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 256258,
"monthly_mi": 128,
"monthly_pi": 1688,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1816,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 240960
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 9441,
"effective_price": 269745,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 162.79,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 101,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 483,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2380,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 125262,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 160329,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 264859,
"monthly_mi": 121,
"monthly_pi": 1674,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1795,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 247937
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 269745,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 162.79,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 101,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 483,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2352,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 114144,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 149211,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 269745,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1768,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1768,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 253504
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 269745,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 162.79,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 101,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 483,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2308,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 111505,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 146572,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 275545,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1724,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1724,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 257641
}
}
},
"id": "a810781b7a7a",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"preferred_lender"
],
"negotiability_score": 57,
"original_price": 269745,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 269745,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": "4.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, preferred-lender requirement.",
"sqft": 1657,
"subdivision": "Oak Ridge",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "8813 Ponderosa Pine Road",
"apr": "5.691%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 14.62,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 9.05,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "8915 Sky Crest Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "8915-sky-crest-drive-temple",
"price": 129000,
"price_per_sqft": 77.85,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-14-2026-mls-templebelton.csv",
"sqft": 1657,
"sqft_delta": 0,
"subdivision": "Lake Pointe Terrace Ph I",
"year_built": 2020
},
{
"address": "412 Dandridge Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "412-dandridge-drive-temple",
"price": 289900,
"price_per_sqft": 175.06,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1656,
"sqft_delta": -1,
"subdivision": "Wyndham Hill",
"year_built": 2013
},
{
"address": "3512 Oglala Trail",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "3512-oglala-trail-temple",
"price": 268000,
"price_per_sqft": 161.54,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1659,
"sqft_delta": 2,
"subdivision": "Prairie Rdg Ph 2",
"year_built": 2022
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 8915 Sky Crest Drive, 412 Dandridge Drive, 3512 Oglala Trail, this new-construction card is $15/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 161.54,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 176.16,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Temple",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 29,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.16,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2497,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 158605,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -37349,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 350,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.16,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2545,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 161461,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -34493,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 398,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.39,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2408,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 169647,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -26307,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 261,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.16,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2575,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 173492,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -22462,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 428,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.16,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2597,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 179192,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -16762,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 450,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.16,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2147,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 195954,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.16,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 632,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 338592,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 142638,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1515,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 2919,
"down_payment": 14449,
"effective_price": 288971,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.39,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 108,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 518,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2408,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 132081,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 169647,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 274522,
"monthly_mi": 137,
"monthly_pi": 1644,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1781,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 257710
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 291890,
"effective_price": 291890,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.16,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 109,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 523,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 632,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 300647,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 338592,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 58378,
"effective_price": 291890,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.16,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 109,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 523,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2147,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 158008,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 195954,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 233512,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1515,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1515,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 219211
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 14594,
"effective_price": 291890,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.16,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 109,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 523,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2597,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 141246,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 179192,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 277296,
"monthly_mi": 139,
"monthly_pi": 1826,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1965,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 260742
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 10216,
"effective_price": 291890,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.16,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 109,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 523,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2575,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 135546,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 173492,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 286603,
"monthly_mi": 131,
"monthly_pi": 1812,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1943,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 268292
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 291890,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.16,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 109,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 523,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2545,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 123515,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 161461,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 291890,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1913,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1913,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 274316
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 291890,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.16,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 109,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 523,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2497,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 120659,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 158605,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 298166,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1865,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1865,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 278793
}
}
},
"id": "ee3bbd5bede6",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"preferred_lender"
],
"negotiability_score": 57,
"original_price": 291890,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 291890,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": "4.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, preferred-lender requirement.",
"sqft": 1657,
"subdivision": "Mesa Ridge",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "1210 Cilantro Road",
"apr": "5.691%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 21.75,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 15.09,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "7204 Rickey Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "7204-rickey-drive-temple",
"price": 260000,
"price_per_sqft": 139.34,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1866,
"sqft_delta": 3,
"subdivision": "Waco Road West Sub",
"year_built": 2005
},
{
"address": "313 Ruggles Loop",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "313-ruggles-loop-temple",
"price": 269000,
"price_per_sqft": 144.16,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1866,
"sqft_delta": 3,
"subdivision": "Bellaire North Sec 6",
"year_built": 1976
},
{
"address": "815 Cross Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "815-cross-drive-temple",
"price": 325000,
"price_per_sqft": 174.17,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1866,
"sqft_delta": 3,
"subdivision": "Wyndham Hill Additio",
"year_built": 2018
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 7204 Rickey Drive, 313 Ruggles Loop, 815 Cross Drive, this new-construction card is $22/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 144.16,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 165.91,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Temple",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 29,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 165.91,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2645,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 167954,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -39550,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 371,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 165.91,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2695,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 170978,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -36526,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 421,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.25,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2549,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 179647,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -27857,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 275,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 165.91,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2727,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 183718,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -23786,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 453,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 165.91,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2750,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 189754,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -17750,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 476,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 165.91,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2274,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 207504,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 165.91,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 670,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 358550,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 151046,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1604,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 3091,
"down_payment": 15300,
"effective_price": 306004,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.25,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 115,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 548,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2549,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 139866,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 179647,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 290704,
"monthly_mi": 145,
"monthly_pi": 1741,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1886,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 272900
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 309095,
"effective_price": 309095,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 165.91,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 116,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 554,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 670,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 318368,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 358550,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 61819,
"effective_price": 309095,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 165.91,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 116,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 554,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2274,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 167321,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 207504,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 247276,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1604,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1604,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 232132
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 15455,
"effective_price": 309095,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 165.91,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 116,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 554,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2750,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 149572,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 189754,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 293640,
"monthly_mi": 147,
"monthly_pi": 1934,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2081,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 276111
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 10818,
"effective_price": 309095,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 165.91,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 116,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 554,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2727,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 143536,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 183718,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 303497,
"monthly_mi": 139,
"monthly_pi": 1918,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2057,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 284106
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 309095,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 165.91,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 116,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 554,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2695,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 130795,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 170978,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 309095,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2025,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2025,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 290485
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 309095,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 165.91,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 116,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 554,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2645,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 127771,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 167954,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 315741,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1975,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1975,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 295226
}
}
},
"id": "88c690f9c03c",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"preferred_lender"
],
"negotiability_score": 57,
"original_price": 309095,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 309095,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": "4.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, preferred-lender requirement.",
"sqft": 1863,
"subdivision": "Oak Ridge",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "6115 Whippoorwill Road",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 87.57,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 62.64,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "252 Bainbridge Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "252-bainbridge-drive-temple",
"price": 320000,
"price_per_sqft": 124.27,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2575,
"sqft_delta": -2,
"subdivision": "Alta Vista Ph III",
"year_built": 2020
},
{
"address": "4512 Sunflower Lane",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "4512-sunflower-lane-temple",
"price": 399900,
"price_per_sqft": 154.64,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2586,
"sqft_delta": 9,
"subdivision": "Wildflower Country Club Ph",
"year_built": 1994
},
{
"address": "7821 Montclair Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "7821-montclair-drive-temple",
"price": 358000,
"price_per_sqft": 139.79,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2561,
"sqft_delta": -16,
"subdivision": "North Gate Ph III",
"year_built": 2019
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 252 Bainbridge Drive, 4512 Sunflower Lane, 7821 Montclair Drive, this new-construction card is $88/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 139.79,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 227.36,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Hodges Eagle Ridge Builders",
"city": "Temple",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 67,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 227.36,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5013,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 318362,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -74969,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 703,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 227.36,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5109,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 324094,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -69237,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 799,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 225.08,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4832,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 340527,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -52804,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 522,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 227.36,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5169,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 348244,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -45087,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 859,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 227.36,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5214,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 359685,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -33646,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 904,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 227.36,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4310,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 393331,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 227.36,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1269,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 679644,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 286313,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -3041,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 5859,
"down_payment": 29002,
"effective_price": 580041,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 225.08,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 218,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1039,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4832,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 265121,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 340527,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 551039,
"monthly_mi": 276,
"monthly_pi": 3300,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3576,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 517292
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 585900,
"effective_price": 585900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 227.36,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 220,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1050,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1269,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 603477,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 679644,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 117180,
"effective_price": 585900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 227.36,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 220,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1050,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4310,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 317164,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 393331,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 468720,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3040,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3040,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 440014
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 29295,
"effective_price": 585900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 227.36,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 220,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1050,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5214,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 283518,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 359685,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 556605,
"monthly_mi": 278,
"monthly_pi": 3666,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3944,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 523377
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 20507,
"effective_price": 585900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 227.36,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 220,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1050,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5169,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 272077,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 348244,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 575288,
"monthly_mi": 264,
"monthly_pi": 3636,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3900,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 538533
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 585900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 227.36,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 220,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1050,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5109,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 247927,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 324094,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 585900,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3839,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3839,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 550624
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 585900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 227.36,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 220,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1050,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5013,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 242195,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 318362,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 598497,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3744,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3744,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 559610
}
}
},
"id": "3d7a8839ec2d",
"incentive_types": [
"builder_concession",
"closing_costs",
"title_policy_survey"
],
"negotiability_score": 57,
"original_price": 585900,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 585900,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: builder concession language, closing-cost concession language, title policy or survey language.",
"sqft": 2577,
"subdivision": "Hartrick Crossing",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "2038 Grey Fox Drive",
"apr": "6.23%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 48.62,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 29.13,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "521 Weeping Willow Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "521-weeping-willow-drive-temple",
"price": 339900,
"price_per_sqft": 113.38,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2998,
"sqft_delta": -2,
"subdivision": "Windmill Farms Ph One",
"year_built": 2006
},
{
"address": "2901 Olympia Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "2901-olympia-drive-temple",
"price": 499900,
"price_per_sqft": 166.91,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2995,
"sqft_delta": -5,
"subdivision": "Cliffs Of Canyon Creek Ph I",
"year_built": 1983
},
{
"address": "119 Chattanooga Court",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "119-chattanooga-court-belton",
"price": 695000,
"price_per_sqft": 231.13,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 3007,
"sqft_delta": 7,
"subdivision": "Tennessee Valley Estate",
"year_built": 2019
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 521 Weeping Willow Drive, 2901 Olympia Drive, 119 Chattanooga Court, this new-construction card is $49/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 166.91,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 215.53,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Nolanville",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 25,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 215.53,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5532,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 351344,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -82735,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 776,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 215.53,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5638,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 357669,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -76410,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 882,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 213.38,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5333,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 375805,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -58274,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 577,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 215.53,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5705,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 384321,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -49758,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 949,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 215.53,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5754,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 396948,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -37131,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 998,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 215.53,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4756,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 434079,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 215.53,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1401,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 750054,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 315975,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -3355,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 6466,
"down_payment": 32007,
"effective_price": 640132,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 213.38,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 240,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1147,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5333,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 292587,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 375805,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 608125,
"monthly_mi": 304,
"monthly_pi": 3642,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3946,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 570882
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 646598,
"effective_price": 646598,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 215.53,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 242,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1158,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1401,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 665996,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 750054,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 129320,
"effective_price": 646598,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 215.53,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 242,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1158,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4756,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 350021,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 434079,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 517278,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3355,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3355,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 485599
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 32330,
"effective_price": 646598,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 215.53,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 242,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1158,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5754,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 312890,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 396948,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 614268,
"monthly_mi": 307,
"monthly_pi": 4046,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4353,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 577598
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 22631,
"effective_price": 646598,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 215.53,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 242,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1158,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5705,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 300263,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 384321,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 634886,
"monthly_mi": 291,
"monthly_pi": 4013,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4304,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 594323
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 646598,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 215.53,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 242,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1158,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5638,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 273612,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 357669,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 646598,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 4237,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4237,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 607667
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 646598,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 215.53,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 242,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1158,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5532,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 267286,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 351344,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 660500,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 4131,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4131,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 617584
}
}
},
"id": "ef1bd3047ca5",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"preferred_lender",
"rate_buydown"
],
"negotiability_score": 56,
"original_price": 646598,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 646598,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": "2.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, preferred-lender requirement, rate buydown language.",
"sqft": 3000,
"subdivision": "Bella Charca Phase 11",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "2235 Iron Branch Road",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 28.1,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 12.71,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "3901 Midway Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "3901-midway-drive-temple",
"price": 420000,
"price_per_sqft": 136.23,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-14-2026-mls-templebelton.csv",
"sqft": 3083,
"sqft_delta": 13,
"subdivision": "Southern Oaks",
"year_built": 1948
},
{
"address": "5304 Sunflower Lane",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "5304-sunflower-lane-temple",
"price": 690000,
"price_per_sqft": 225.71,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 3057,
"sqft_delta": -13,
"subdivision": "Wildflower Country Club Ph",
"year_built": 2014
},
{
"address": "705 Haymarket Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "705-haymarket-drive-temple",
"price": 675000,
"price_per_sqft": 221.09,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 3053,
"sqft_delta": -17,
"subdivision": "Hartrick Valley Estates",
"year_built": 2018
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 3901 Midway Drive, 5304 Sunflower Lane, 705 Haymarket Drive, this new-construction card is $28/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 221.09,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 249.19,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Hodges Eagle Ridge Builders",
"city": "Temple",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 60,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 249.19,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6546,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 415680,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -97885,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 919,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 249.19,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6670,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 423164,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -90401,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 1043,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 246.69,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6310,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 444620,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -68945,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 683,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 249.19,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6750,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 454696,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -58869,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 1123,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 249.19,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6807,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 469635,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -43930,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 1180,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 249.19,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5627,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 513565,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 249.19,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1658,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 887400,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 373835,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -3969,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 7650,
"down_payment": 37868,
"effective_price": 757350,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 246.69,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 284,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1357,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6310,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 346165,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 444620,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 719482,
"monthly_mi": 360,
"monthly_pi": 4309,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4669,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 675419
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 765000,
"effective_price": 765000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 249.19,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 287,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1371,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1658,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 787950,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 887400,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 153000,
"effective_price": 765000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 249.19,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 287,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1371,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5627,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 414115,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 513565,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 612000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3969,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3969,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 574519
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 38250,
"effective_price": 765000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 249.19,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 287,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1371,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6807,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 370185,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 469635,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 726750,
"monthly_mi": 363,
"monthly_pi": 4786,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 5150,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 683365
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 26775,
"effective_price": 765000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 249.19,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 287,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1371,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6750,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 355246,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 454696,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 751144,
"monthly_mi": 344,
"monthly_pi": 4748,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 5092,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 703153
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 765000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 249.19,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 287,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1371,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6670,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 323714,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 423164,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 765000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 5013,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 5013,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 718940
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 765000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 249.19,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 287,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1371,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6546,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 316230,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 415680,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 781448,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 4888,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4888,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 730674
}
}
},
"id": "b1af91cb4fa0",
"incentive_types": [
"builder_concession",
"closing_costs",
"title_policy_survey"
],
"negotiability_score": 55,
"original_price": 765000,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 765000,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: builder concession language, closing-cost concession language, title policy or survey language.",
"sqft": 3070,
"subdivision": "Fryers Bend",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "1313 Lone Pine Way",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 31.02,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 23.29,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "1602 Indian Trail",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1602-indian-trail-harker-heights",
"price": 165000,
"price_per_sqft": 122.04,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1352,
"sqft_delta": 13,
"subdivision": "Comanche Land 1st Unit",
"year_built": 1982
},
{
"address": "3908 Lakecliff Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "3908-lakecliff-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 174900,
"price_per_sqft": 133.21,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1313,
"sqft_delta": -26,
"subdivision": "Cherokee Lane",
"year_built": 1996
},
{
"address": "4214 Broken Arrow Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "4214-broken-arrow-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 239700,
"price_per_sqft": 174.71,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1372,
"sqft_delta": 33,
"subdivision": "Broken Arrow Lake Estates Sec",
"year_built": 1977
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 1602 Indian Trail, 3908 Lakecliff Drive, 4214 Broken Arrow Drive, this new-construction card is $31/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 133.21,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 164.23,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": null,
"city": "Killeen",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 75,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.23,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1882,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 119488,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -28137,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 265,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.23,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1917,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 121639,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -25986,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 300,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 162.58,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1814,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 127806,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -19819,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 197,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.23,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1940,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 130703,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -16922,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 323,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.23,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1957,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 134997,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -12628,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 340,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.23,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1617,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 147625,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.23,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 476,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 255084,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 107459,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1141,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 2199,
"down_payment": 10885,
"effective_price": 217701,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 162.58,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 82,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 390,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1814,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 99505,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 127806,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 206816,
"monthly_mi": 103,
"monthly_pi": 1239,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1342,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 194150
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 219900,
"effective_price": 219900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.23,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 82,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 394,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 476,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 226497,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 255084,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 43980,
"effective_price": 219900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.23,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 82,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 394,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1617,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 119038,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 147625,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 175920,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1141,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1141,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 165146
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 10995,
"effective_price": 219900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.23,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 82,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 394,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1957,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 106410,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 134997,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 208905,
"monthly_mi": 104,
"monthly_pi": 1376,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1480,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 196434
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 7697,
"effective_price": 219900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.23,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 82,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 394,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1940,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 102116,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 130703,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 215917,
"monthly_mi": 99,
"monthly_pi": 1365,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1464,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 202122
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 219900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.23,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 82,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 394,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1917,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 93052,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 121639,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 219900,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1441,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1441,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 206660
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 219900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 164.23,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 82,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 394,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1882,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 90901,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 119488,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 224628,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1405,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1405,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 210033
}
}
},
"id": "6aa98189724a",
"incentive_types": [
"lender_credit",
"preferred_lender"
],
"negotiability_score": 54,
"original_price": 219900,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 219900,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: lender-credit language, preferred-lender requirement.",
"sqft": 1339,
"subdivision": "",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "3715 Southern Catapala Drive",
"apr": "5.691%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 32.26,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 19.87,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "1705 Lynx Circle",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1705-lynx-circle-harker-heights",
"price": 269900,
"price_per_sqft": 162.39,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1662,
"sqft_delta": 5,
"subdivision": "Country Trails Add 6th Ph",
"year_built": 1992
},
{
"address": "2006 Longmeadow Road",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "2006-longmeadow-road-harker-heights",
"price": 314900,
"price_per_sqft": 191.31,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1646,
"sqft_delta": -11,
"subdivision": "Whitten Place",
"year_built": 1988
},
{
"address": "1706 Lynx Circle",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1706-lynx-circle-harker-heights",
"price": 255000,
"price_per_sqft": 155.39,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1641,
"sqft_delta": -16,
"subdivision": "Country Trails Add 6th Ph",
"year_built": 1987
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 1705 Lynx Circle, 2006 Longmeadow Road, 1706 Lynx Circle, this new-construction card is $32/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 162.39,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 194.65,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Killeen",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 19,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 194.65,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2760,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 175254,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -41269,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 388,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 194.65,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2812,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 178409,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -38114,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 440,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 192.7,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2660,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 187456,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -29067,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 288,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 194.65,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2846,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 191703,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -24820,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 474,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 194.65,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2870,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 198002,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -18521,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 498,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 194.65,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2372,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 216523,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 194.65,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 699,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 374135,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 157612,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1673,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 3225,
"down_payment": 15965,
"effective_price": 319305,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 192.7,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 120,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 572,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2660,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 145946,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 187456,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 303340,
"monthly_mi": 152,
"monthly_pi": 1817,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1968,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 284762
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 322530,
"effective_price": 322530,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 194.65,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 121,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 578,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 699,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 332206,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 374135,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 64506,
"effective_price": 322530,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 194.65,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 121,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 578,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2372,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 174594,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 216523,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 258024,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1674,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1674,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 242222
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 16126,
"effective_price": 322530,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 194.65,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 121,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 578,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2870,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 156073,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 198002,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 306404,
"monthly_mi": 153,
"monthly_pi": 2018,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2171,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 288112
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 11289,
"effective_price": 322530,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 194.65,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 121,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 578,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2846,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 149774,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 191703,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 316688,
"monthly_mi": 145,
"monthly_pi": 2002,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2147,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 296455
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 322530,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 194.65,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 121,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 578,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2812,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 136480,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 178409,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 322530,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2113,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2113,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 303111
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 322530,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 194.65,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 121,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 578,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2760,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 133325,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 175254,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 329464,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2061,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2061,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 308058
}
}
},
"id": "b85eef7b5774",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"preferred_lender"
],
"negotiability_score": 54,
"original_price": 322530,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 322530,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": "4.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, preferred-lender requirement.",
"sqft": 1657,
"subdivision": "Preserve at Thousand Oaks",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "8809 Ponderosa Pine Road",
"apr": "5.691%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 21.43,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 12.59,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "2001 S 9th Street",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "2001-s-9th-street-temple",
"price": 146000,
"price_per_sqft": 99.39,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-14-2026-mls-templebelton.csv",
"sqft": 1469,
"sqft_delta": 0,
"subdivision": "Hollywood Add",
"year_built": 1952
},
{
"address": "828 Starlight Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "828-starlight-drive-temple",
"price": 249828,
"price_per_sqft": 170.18,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-14-2026-mls-templebelton.csv",
"sqft": 1468,
"sqft_delta": -1,
"subdivision": "Windmill Farms Ph II",
"year_built": 2011
},
{
"address": "5918 Blackstone Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "5918-blackstone-drive-temple",
"price": 279000,
"price_per_sqft": 189.8,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1470,
"sqft_delta": 1,
"subdivision": "Wyndham Hill Additio",
"year_built": 2018
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 2001 S 9th Street, 828 Starlight Drive, 5918 Blackstone Drive, this new-construction card is $21/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 170.18,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 191.61,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Temple",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 19,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 191.61,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2408,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 152943,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -36015,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 338,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 191.61,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2454,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 155697,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -33261,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 384,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 189.69,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2322,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 163591,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -25367,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 252,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 191.61,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2483,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 167298,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -21660,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 413,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 191.61,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2505,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 172795,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -16163,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 435,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 191.61,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2070,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 188958,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 191.61,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 610,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 326505,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 137547,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1460,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 2815,
"down_payment": 13933,
"effective_price": 278655,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 189.69,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 104,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 499,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2322,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 127366,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 163591,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 264722,
"monthly_mi": 132,
"monthly_pi": 1585,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1718,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 248510
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 281470,
"effective_price": 281470,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 191.61,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 106,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 504,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 610,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 289914,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 326505,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 56294,
"effective_price": 281470,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 191.61,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 106,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 504,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2070,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 152367,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 188958,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 225176,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1460,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1460,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 211386
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 14074,
"effective_price": 281470,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 191.61,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 106,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 504,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2505,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 136204,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 172795,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 267396,
"monthly_mi": 134,
"monthly_pi": 1761,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1895,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 251434
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 9851,
"effective_price": 281470,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 191.61,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 106,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 504,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2483,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 130707,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 167298,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 276372,
"monthly_mi": 127,
"monthly_pi": 1747,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1874,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 258714
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 281470,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 191.61,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 106,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 504,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2454,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 119106,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 155697,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 281470,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1844,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1844,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 264523
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 281470,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 191.61,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 106,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 504,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2408,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 116352,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 152943,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 287522,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1798,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1798,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 268840
}
}
},
"id": "6509d79da1b6",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"preferred_lender"
],
"negotiability_score": 54,
"original_price": 281470,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 281470,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": "4.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, preferred-lender requirement.",
"sqft": 1469,
"subdivision": "Mesa Ridge",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "1915 Bear Grass Ridge",
"apr": "5.691%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 9.0,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 5.37,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "1223 Kiskadee Branch Branch",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "1223-kiskadee-branch-branch-temple",
"price": 299000,
"price_per_sqft": 179.58,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1665,
"sqft_delta": -1,
"subdivision": "Lake Pointe",
"year_built": 2018
},
{
"address": "10409 Orion Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "10409-orion-drive-temple",
"price": 263000,
"price_per_sqft": 158.05,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-0-500.csv",
"sqft": 1664,
"sqft_delta": -2,
"subdivision": "Windmill Farms Ph III",
"year_built": 2011
},
{
"address": "7909 McCulloch Road",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "7909-mcculloch-road-temple",
"price": 279000,
"price_per_sqft": 167.67,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-14-2026-mls-templebelton.csv",
"sqft": 1664,
"sqft_delta": -2,
"subdivision": "Pea Rdg Ph 1",
"year_built": 2020
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 1223 Kiskadee Branch Branch, 10409 Orion Drive, 7909 McCulloch Road, this new-construction card is $9/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 167.67,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 176.67,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Temple",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 19,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.67,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2518,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 159936,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -37662,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 353,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.67,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2566,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 162816,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -34782,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 401,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.91,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2428,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 171072,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -26526,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 263,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.67,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2597,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 174948,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -22650,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 432,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.67,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2619,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 180696,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -16902,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 454,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.67,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2165,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 197598,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.67,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 638,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 341434,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 143836,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1527,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 2943,
"down_payment": 14570,
"effective_price": 291397,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.91,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 109,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 522,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2428,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 133190,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 171072,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 276827,
"monthly_mi": 138,
"monthly_pi": 1658,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1796,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 259873
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 294340,
"effective_price": 294340,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.67,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 110,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 527,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 638,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 303170,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 341434,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 58868,
"effective_price": 294340,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.67,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 110,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 527,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2165,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 159334,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 197598,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 235472,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1527,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1527,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 221051
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 14717,
"effective_price": 294340,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.67,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 110,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 527,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2619,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 142432,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 180696,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 279623,
"monthly_mi": 140,
"monthly_pi": 1842,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1981,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 262930
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 10302,
"effective_price": 294340,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.67,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 110,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 527,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2597,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 136684,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 174948,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 289009,
"monthly_mi": 132,
"monthly_pi": 1827,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1959,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 270544
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 294340,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.67,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 110,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 527,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2566,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 124552,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 162816,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 294340,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1929,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1929,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 276618
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 294340,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.67,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 110,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 527,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2518,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 121672,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 159936,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 300668,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1881,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1881,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 281133
}
}
},
"id": "25683703ca12",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"preferred_lender"
],
"negotiability_score": 54,
"original_price": 294340,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 294340,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": "4.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, preferred-lender requirement.",
"sqft": 1666,
"subdivision": "Ridge at Knob Creek",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "2216 Iron Branch Road",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 128.7,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 92.23,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "4012 Creekview Trail",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "4012-creekview-trail-temple",
"price": 424900,
"price_per_sqft": 139.54,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 3045,
"sqft_delta": 7,
"subdivision": "WOODBRIDGE CREEK PHASE III",
"year_built": 2004
},
{
"address": "705 Haymarket Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "705-haymarket-drive-temple",
"price": 675000,
"price_per_sqft": 221.09,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 3053,
"sqft_delta": 15,
"subdivision": "Hartrick Valley Estates",
"year_built": 2018
},
{
"address": "4310 Antelope Trl",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "4310-antelope-trl-temple",
"price": 373000,
"price_per_sqft": 123.55,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 3019,
"sqft_delta": -19,
"subdivision": "Western Hills",
"year_built": 1984
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 4012 Creekview Trail, 705 Haymarket Drive, 4310 Antelope Trl, this new-construction card is $129/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 139.54,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 268.24,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Hodges Eagle Ridge Builders",
"city": "Temple",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 56,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 268.24,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6972,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 442794,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -104270,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 978,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 268.24,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 7105,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 450766,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -96298,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 1111,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 265.55,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6721,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 473622,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -73442,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 727,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 268.24,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 7190,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 484355,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -62709,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 1196,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 268.24,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 7251,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 500269,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -46795,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 1257,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 268.24,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5994,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 547064,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 268.24,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1766,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 945284,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 398220,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -4228,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 8149,
"down_payment": 40338,
"effective_price": 806751,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 265.55,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 303,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1445,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6721,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 368745,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 473622,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 766413,
"monthly_mi": 383,
"monthly_pi": 4590,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4973,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 719476
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 814900,
"effective_price": 814900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 268.24,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 306,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1460,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1766,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 839347,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 945284,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 162980,
"effective_price": 814900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 268.24,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 306,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1460,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5994,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 441127,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 547064,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 651920,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 4228,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4228,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 611995
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 40745,
"effective_price": 814900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 268.24,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 306,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1460,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 7251,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 394332,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 500269,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 774155,
"monthly_mi": 387,
"monthly_pi": 5099,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 5486,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 727940
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 28522,
"effective_price": 814900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 268.24,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 306,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1460,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 7190,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 378418,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 484355,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 800140,
"monthly_mi": 367,
"monthly_pi": 5057,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 5424,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 749019
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 814900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 268.24,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 306,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1460,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 7105,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 344829,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 450766,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 814900,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 5340,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 5340,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 765836
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 814900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 268.24,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 306,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1460,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6972,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 336857,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 442794,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 832420,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 5207,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 5207,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 778334
}
}
},
"id": "1763028fcc1d",
"incentive_types": [
"builder_concession",
"closing_costs",
"title_policy_survey"
],
"negotiability_score": 53,
"original_price": 814900,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 814900,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: builder concession language, closing-cost concession language, title policy or survey language.",
"sqft": 3038,
"subdivision": "Fryers Bend",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "3303 Goblin Drive",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 17.96,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 11.56,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "903 Cliffside Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "903-cliffside-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 250000,
"price_per_sqft": 159.24,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1570,
"sqft_delta": -24,
"subdivision": "Tanglewood North Second Unit",
"year_built": 1979
},
{
"address": "1703 Quarry Trail",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1703-quarry-trail-harker-heights",
"price": 212500,
"price_per_sqft": 136.92,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1552,
"sqft_delta": -42,
"subdivision": "Fawn Valley Rep Blks 1-2",
"year_built": 1995
},
{
"address": "1706 Lynx Circle",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1706-lynx-circle-harker-heights",
"price": 255000,
"price_per_sqft": 155.39,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1641,
"sqft_delta": 47,
"subdivision": "Country Trails Add 6th Ph",
"year_built": 1987
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 903 Cliffside Drive, 1703 Quarry Trail, 1706 Lynx Circle, this new-construction card is $18/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 155.39,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 173.35,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": null,
"city": "Killeen",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 332,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 173.35,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2364,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 150142,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -35356,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 332,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 173.35,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2409,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 152845,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -32653,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 377,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 171.61,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2279,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 160595,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -24903,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 247,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 173.35,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2438,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 164234,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -21264,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 406,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 173.35,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2459,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 169630,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -15868,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 427,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 173.35,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2032,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 185498,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 173.35,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 599,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 320525,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 135027,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1433,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 2763,
"down_payment": 13678,
"effective_price": 273552,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 171.61,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 103,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 490,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2279,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 125034,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 160595,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 259874,
"monthly_mi": 130,
"monthly_pi": 1556,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1686,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 243959
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 276315,
"effective_price": 276315,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 173.35,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 104,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 495,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 599,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 284604,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 320525,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 55263,
"effective_price": 276315,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 173.35,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 104,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 495,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2032,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 149577,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 185498,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 221052,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1434,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1434,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 207514
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 13816,
"effective_price": 276315,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 173.35,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 104,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 495,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2459,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 133709,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 169630,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 262499,
"monthly_mi": 131,
"monthly_pi": 1729,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1860,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 246829
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 9671,
"effective_price": 276315,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 173.35,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 104,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 495,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2438,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 128313,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 164234,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 271310,
"monthly_mi": 124,
"monthly_pi": 1715,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1839,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 253976
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 276315,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 173.35,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 104,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 495,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2409,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 116924,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 152845,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 276315,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1811,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1811,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 259678
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 276315,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 173.35,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 104,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 495,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2364,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 114221,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 150142,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 282256,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1766,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1766,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 263916
}
}
},
"id": "7bd524bb2809",
"incentive_types": [
"closing_costs"
],
"negotiability_score": 52,
"original_price": 275315,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 276315,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: closing-cost concession language.",
"sqft": 1594,
"subdivision": "GOODNIGHT RANCH",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "5063 Fence Line Trail",
"apr": "6.23%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 74.55,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 51.58,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "2612 Laguna Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "2612-laguna-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 300000,
"price_per_sqft": 134.41,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 2232,
"sqft_delta": 2,
"subdivision": "Skipcha Mt. Est",
"year_built": 2009
},
{
"address": "821 Kendra Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "821-kendra-drive-temple",
"price": 322000,
"price_per_sqft": 144.52,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2228,
"sqft_delta": -2,
"subdivision": "Canyon Ridge Ph III",
"year_built": 2017
},
{
"address": "2631 Cedar Glen Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "2631-cedar-glen-drive-belton",
"price": 380000,
"price_per_sqft": 170.56,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2228,
"sqft_delta": -2,
"subdivision": "Hubbard Branch Add Ph",
"year_built": 2021
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 2612 Laguna Drive, 821 Kendra Drive, 2631 Cedar Glen Drive, this new-construction card is $75/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 144.52,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 219.07,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Nolanville",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 13,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 219.07,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4180,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 265458,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -62510,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 587,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 219.07,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4260,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 270237,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -57731,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 667,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 216.88,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4029,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 283940,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -44028,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 436,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 219.07,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4310,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 290374,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -37594,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 717,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 219.07,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4347,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 299914,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -28054,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 754,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 219.07,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3593,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 327968,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 219.07,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1058,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 566703,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 238735,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -2535,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 4885,
"down_payment": 24183,
"effective_price": 483652,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 216.88,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 181,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 867,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4029,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 221065,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 283940,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 459469,
"monthly_mi": 230,
"monthly_pi": 2752,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2982,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 431330
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 488537,
"effective_price": 488537,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 219.07,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 183,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 875,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1058,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 503193,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 566703,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 97707,
"effective_price": 488537,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 219.07,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 183,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 875,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3593,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 264458,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 327968,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 390830,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2535,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2535,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 366894
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 24427,
"effective_price": 488537,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 219.07,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 183,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 875,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4347,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 236404,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 299914,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 464110,
"monthly_mi": 232,
"monthly_pi": 3057,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3289,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 436404
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 17099,
"effective_price": 488537,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 219.07,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 183,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 875,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4310,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 226864,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 290374,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 479688,
"monthly_mi": 220,
"monthly_pi": 3032,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3252,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 449041
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 488537,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 219.07,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 183,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 875,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4260,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 206727,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 270237,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 488537,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3201,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3201,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 459123
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 488537,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 219.07,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 183,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 875,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4180,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 201948,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 265458,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 499041,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3122,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3122,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 466616
}
}
},
"id": "cff101c280bc",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"preferred_lender"
],
"negotiability_score": 52,
"original_price": 468890,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 488537,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": "4.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, preferred-lender requirement.",
"sqft": 2230,
"subdivision": "Bella Charca Phase 12",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "8618 Glade Drive",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 31.63,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 19.14,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "1230 Fawn Lily Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "1230-fawn-lily-drive-temple",
"price": 245000,
"price_per_sqft": 140.08,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-0-500.csv",
"sqft": 1749,
"sqft_delta": 2,
"subdivision": "Lake Pointe Ph Ii-A1",
"year_built": 2014
},
{
"address": "1404 Rolling Brook Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "1404-rolling-brook-drive-temple",
"price": 299000,
"price_per_sqft": 170.95,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1749,
"sqft_delta": 2,
"subdivision": "Hills/Westwood Ph Xi",
"year_built": 2021
},
{
"address": "501 Dandridge Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "501-dandridge-drive-temple",
"price": 289900,
"price_per_sqft": 165.28,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1754,
"sqft_delta": 7,
"subdivision": "Wyndham Hill Add Ph IV",
"year_built": 2016
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 1230 Fawn Lily Drive, 1404 Rolling Brook Drive, 501 Dandridge Drive, this new-construction card is $32/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 165.28,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 196.91,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Sandor Construction",
"city": "Temple",
"closing_credit": 15000,
"dom": 125,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 196.91,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2943,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 176600,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -44017,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 413,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 196.91,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2999,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 179966,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -40651,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 469,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 196.91,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3035,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 194145,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -26472,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 505,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 196.91,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2866,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 195004,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -25613,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 336,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 196.91,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3061,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 200862,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -19755,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 531,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 196.91,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2530,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 220617,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 196.91,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 745,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 388720,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 168103,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1785,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 17200,
"effective_price": 344000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 196.91,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 129,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 616,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2866,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 150284,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 195004,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 326800,
"monthly_mi": 163,
"monthly_pi": 1957,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2121,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 306786
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 344000,
"effective_price": 344000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 196.91,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 129,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 616,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 745,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 344000,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 388720,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 68800,
"effective_price": 344000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 196.91,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 129,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 616,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2530,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 175897,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 220617,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 275200,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1785,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1785,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 258346
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 17200,
"effective_price": 344000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 196.91,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 129,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 616,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3061,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 156142,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 200862,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 326800,
"monthly_mi": 163,
"monthly_pi": 2152,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2316,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 307291
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 12040,
"effective_price": 344000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 196.91,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 129,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 616,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3035,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 149425,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 194145,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 337769,
"monthly_mi": 155,
"monthly_pi": 2135,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2290,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 316189
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 344000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 196.91,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 129,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 616,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2999,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 135246,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 179966,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 344000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2254,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2254,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 323288
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 344000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 196.91,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 129,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 616,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2943,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 131880,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 176600,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 351396,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2198,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2198,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 328564
}
}
},
"id": "e27acf058d2e",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings"
],
"negotiability_score": 52,
"original_price": 359000,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 359000,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language.",
"sqft": 1747,
"subdivision": "Mesa Rdg Ph II",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "8523 Glade Drive",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 30.28,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 20.57,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "20 W Nugent Avenue",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "20-w-nugent-avenue-temple",
"price": 285900,
"price_per_sqft": 147.22,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1942,
"sqft_delta": 4,
"subdivision": "",
"year_built": 1942
},
{
"address": "2520 Nolan Creek Street",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "2520-nolan-creek-street-temple",
"price": 294800,
"price_per_sqft": 152.59,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1932,
"sqft_delta": -6,
"subdivision": "The Meadows At Creekside Ph",
"year_built": 2015
},
{
"address": "1203 Emerald Gate Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "1203-emerald-gate-drive-temple",
"price": 265000,
"price_per_sqft": 137.31,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1930,
"sqft_delta": -8,
"subdivision": "Lake Pointe Ph Ii-A1",
"year_built": 2015
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 20 W Nugent Avenue, 2520 Nolan Creek Street, 1203 Emerald Gate Drive, this new-construction card is $30/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 147.22,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 177.5,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Sandor Homes",
"city": "Temple",
"closing_credit": 15000,
"dom": 125,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 177.5,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2943,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 176600,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -44017,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 413,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 177.5,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2999,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 179966,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -40651,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 469,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 177.5,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3035,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 194145,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -26472,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 505,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 177.5,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2866,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 195004,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -25613,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 336,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 177.5,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3061,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 200862,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -19755,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 531,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 177.5,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2530,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 220617,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 177.5,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 745,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 388720,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 168103,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1785,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 17200,
"effective_price": 344000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 177.5,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 129,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 616,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2866,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 150284,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 195004,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 326800,
"monthly_mi": 163,
"monthly_pi": 1957,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2121,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 306786
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 344000,
"effective_price": 344000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 177.5,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 129,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 616,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 745,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 344000,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 388720,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 68800,
"effective_price": 344000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 177.5,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 129,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 616,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2530,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 175897,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 220617,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 275200,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1785,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1785,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 258346
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 17200,
"effective_price": 344000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 177.5,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 129,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 616,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3061,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 156142,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 200862,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 326800,
"monthly_mi": 163,
"monthly_pi": 2152,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2316,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 307291
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 12040,
"effective_price": 344000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 177.5,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 129,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 616,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3035,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 149425,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 194145,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 337769,
"monthly_mi": 155,
"monthly_pi": 2135,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2290,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 316189
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 344000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 177.5,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 129,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 616,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2999,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 135246,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 179966,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 344000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2254,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2254,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 323288
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 344000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 177.5,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 129,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 616,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2943,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 131880,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 176600,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 351396,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2198,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2198,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 328564
}
}
},
"id": "19340f82191c",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings"
],
"negotiability_score": 52,
"original_price": 359000,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 359000,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language.",
"sqft": 1938,
"subdivision": "",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "2017 Clear Sky Court",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": -7.61,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": -4.41,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "101 Metheglin Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "101-metheglin-drive-temple",
"price": 545000,
"price_per_sqft": 218.09,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2499,
"sqft_delta": -10,
"subdivision": "North Lake Estates",
"year_built": 2021
},
{
"address": "2307 Misty Morning Lane",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "2307-misty-morning-lane-temple",
"price": 435000,
"price_per_sqft": 172.62,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-14-2026-mls-templebelton.csv",
"sqft": 2520,
"sqft_delta": 11,
"subdivision": "Deerfield Estates Ph Three",
"year_built": 2006
},
{
"address": "902 N 1st Street",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "902-n-1st-street-temple",
"price": 100000,
"price_per_sqft": 39.65,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-0-500.csv",
"sqft": 2522,
"sqft_delta": 13,
"subdivision": "Dienst & Gardenhire",
"year_built": 1915
}
],
"favorable": true,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 101 Metheglin Drive, 2307 Misty Morning Lane, 902 N 1st Street, this new-construction card is $8/sqft cheaper on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 172.62,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 165.01,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Sandor Homes",
"city": "Temple",
"closing_credit": 15000,
"dom": 125,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 165.01,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3542,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 212536,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -52973,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 497,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 165.01,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3610,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 216586,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -48923,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 565,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 165.01,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3653,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 233651,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -31858,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 608,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 165.01,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3449,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 234685,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -30824,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 404,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 165.01,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3684,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 241735,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -23774,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 639,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 165.01,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3045,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 265509,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 165.01,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 897,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 467820,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 202311,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -2148,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 20700,
"effective_price": 414000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 165.01,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 155,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 742,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3449,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 180865,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 234685,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 393300,
"monthly_mi": 197,
"monthly_pi": 2356,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2552,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 369213
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 414000,
"effective_price": 414000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 165.01,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 155,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 742,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 897,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 414000,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 467820,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 82800,
"effective_price": 414000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 165.01,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 155,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 742,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3045,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 211689,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 265509,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 331200,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2148,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2148,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 310916
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 20700,
"effective_price": 414000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 165.01,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 155,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 742,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3684,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 187915,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 241735,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 393300,
"monthly_mi": 197,
"monthly_pi": 2590,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2787,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 369821
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 14490,
"effective_price": 414000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 165.01,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 155,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 742,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3653,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 179831,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 233651,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 406501,
"monthly_mi": 186,
"monthly_pi": 2569,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2756,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 380530
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 414000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 165.01,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 155,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 742,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3610,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 162766,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 216586,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 414000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2713,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2713,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 389074
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 414000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 165.01,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 155,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 742,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3542,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 158716,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 212536,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 422901,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2645,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2645,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 395423
}
}
},
"id": "c7d391e46ef7",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings"
],
"negotiability_score": 52,
"original_price": 429000,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 429000,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language.",
"sqft": 2509,
"subdivision": "Mesa Rdg Ph II",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "8610 Glade Drive",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": -3.63,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": -2.1,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "101 Metheglin Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "101-metheglin-drive-temple",
"price": 545000,
"price_per_sqft": 218.09,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2499,
"sqft_delta": -10,
"subdivision": "North Lake Estates",
"year_built": 2021
},
{
"address": "2307 Misty Morning Lane",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "2307-misty-morning-lane-temple",
"price": 435000,
"price_per_sqft": 172.62,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-14-2026-mls-templebelton.csv",
"sqft": 2520,
"sqft_delta": 11,
"subdivision": "Deerfield Estates Ph Three",
"year_built": 2006
},
{
"address": "902 N 1st Street",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "902-n-1st-street-temple",
"price": 100000,
"price_per_sqft": 39.65,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-0-500.csv",
"sqft": 2522,
"sqft_delta": 13,
"subdivision": "Dienst & Gardenhire",
"year_built": 1915
}
],
"favorable": true,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 101 Metheglin Drive, 2307 Misty Morning Lane, 902 N 1st Street, this new-construction card is $4/sqft cheaper on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 172.62,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 168.99,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Sandor Homes",
"city": "Temple",
"closing_credit": 15000,
"dom": 120,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 168.99,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3628,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 217670,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -54253,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 509,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 168.99,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3697,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 221818,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -50105,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 578,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 168.99,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3741,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 239294,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -32629,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 622,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 168.99,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3532,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 240354,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -31569,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 413,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 168.99,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3773,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 247574,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -24349,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 654,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 168.99,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3119,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 271923,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 168.99,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 919,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 479120,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 207197,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -2200,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 21200,
"effective_price": 424000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 168.99,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 159,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 760,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3532,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 185234,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 240354,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 402800,
"monthly_mi": 201,
"monthly_pi": 2412,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2614,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 378131
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 424000,
"effective_price": 424000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 168.99,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 159,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 760,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 919,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 424000,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 479120,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 84800,
"effective_price": 424000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 168.99,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 159,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 760,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3119,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 216803,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 271923,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 339200,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2200,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2200,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 318426
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 21200,
"effective_price": 424000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 168.99,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 159,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 760,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3773,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 192454,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 247574,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 402800,
"monthly_mi": 201,
"monthly_pi": 2653,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2854,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 378754
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 14840,
"effective_price": 424000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 168.99,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 159,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 760,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3741,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 184174,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 239294,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 416320,
"monthly_mi": 191,
"monthly_pi": 2631,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2822,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 389722
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 424000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 168.99,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 159,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 760,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3697,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 166698,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 221818,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 424000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2778,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2778,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 398471
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 424000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 168.99,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 159,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 760,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3628,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 162550,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 217670,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 433116,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2709,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2709,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 404975
}
}
},
"id": "215636bcf944",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings"
],
"negotiability_score": 52,
"original_price": 439000,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 439000,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language.",
"sqft": 2509,
"subdivision": "Mesa Ridge",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "9003 Chalk Maple Drive",
"apr": "6.293%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 14.9,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 9.18,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "1705 Lynx Circle",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1705-lynx-circle-harker-heights",
"price": 269900,
"price_per_sqft": 162.39,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1662,
"sqft_delta": -4,
"subdivision": "Country Trails Add 6th Ph",
"year_built": 1992
},
{
"address": "712 End O Trail",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "712-end-o-trail-harker-heights",
"price": 268000,
"price_per_sqft": 159.9,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1676,
"sqft_delta": 10,
"subdivision": "Sun Meadows Ph One",
"year_built": 1986
},
{
"address": "2006 Longmeadow Road",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "2006-longmeadow-road-harker-heights",
"price": 314900,
"price_per_sqft": 191.31,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1646,
"sqft_delta": -20,
"subdivision": "Whitten Place",
"year_built": 1988
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 1705 Lynx Circle, 712 End O Trail, 2006 Longmeadow Road, this new-construction card is $15/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 162.39,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 177.29,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Killeen",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 56,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 177.29,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2527,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 160494,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -37794,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 354,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 177.29,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2575,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 163384,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -34904,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 402,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 175.52,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2436,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 171668,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -26620,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 263,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 177.29,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2606,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 175558,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -22730,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 433,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 177.29,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2628,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 181326,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -16962,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 455,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 177.29,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2173,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 198288,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 177.29,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 640,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 342626,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 144338,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1533,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 2954,
"down_payment": 14621,
"effective_price": 292413,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 175.52,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 110,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 524,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2436,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 133654,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 171668,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 277792,
"monthly_mi": 139,
"monthly_pi": 1664,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1803,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 260780
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 295367,
"effective_price": 295367,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 177.29,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 111,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 529,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 640,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 304228,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 342626,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 59073,
"effective_price": 295367,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 177.29,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 111,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 529,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2173,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 159890,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 198288,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 236294,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1533,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1533,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 221822
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 14768,
"effective_price": 295367,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 177.29,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 111,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 529,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2628,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 142929,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 181326,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 280599,
"monthly_mi": 140,
"monthly_pi": 1848,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1988,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 263848
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 10338,
"effective_price": 295367,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 177.29,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 111,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 529,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2606,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 137161,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 175558,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 290017,
"monthly_mi": 133,
"monthly_pi": 1833,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1966,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 271488
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 295367,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 177.29,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 111,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 529,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2575,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 124986,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 163384,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 295367,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1935,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1935,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 277583
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 295367,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 177.29,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 111,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 529,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2527,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 122097,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 160494,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 301717,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1887,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1887,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 282114
}
}
},
"id": "b55c8ac87dc3",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate"
],
"negotiability_score": 50,
"original_price": 295367,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 295367,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": "5.49%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive.",
"sqft": 1666,
"subdivision": "Preserve at Thousand Oaks",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "1224 Madyson Lane",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 2.6,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 1.13,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "312 Ow Lowrey",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "312-ow-lowrey-salado",
"price": 394500,
"price_per_sqft": 229.09,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1722,
"sqft_delta": -4,
"subdivision": "Mill Creek Courtyard Village",
"year_built": 2002
},
{
"address": "10223 Southshore Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "10223-southshore-drive-salado",
"price": 419000,
"price_per_sqft": 236.72,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1770,
"sqft_delta": 44,
"subdivision": "Southshore Sub",
"year_built": 2005
},
{
"address": "1008 Mill Creek Lane",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "1008-mill-creek-lane-salado",
"price": 399000,
"price_per_sqft": 224.16,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1780,
"sqft_delta": 54,
"subdivision": "Mill Creek Sec 2",
"year_built": 1978
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 312 Ow Lowrey, 10223 Southshore Drive, 1008 Mill Creek Lane, this new-construction card is $3/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 229.09,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 231.69,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "White River Homes",
"city": "Salado",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 63,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 231.69,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3422,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 217295,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -51169,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 481,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 231.69,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3487,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 221207,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -47257,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 546,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 229.37,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3298,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 232423,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -36041,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 357,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 231.69,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3528,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 237690,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -30774,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 587,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 231.69,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3558,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 245499,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -22965,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 617,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 231.69,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2941,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 268464,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 231.69,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 866,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 463884,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 195420,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -2075,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 3999,
"down_payment": 19795,
"effective_price": 395901,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 229.37,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 148,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 709,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3298,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 180956,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 232423,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 376106,
"monthly_mi": 188,
"monthly_pi": 2253,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2441,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 353072
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 399900,
"effective_price": 399900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 231.69,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 150,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 716,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 866,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 411897,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 463884,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 79980,
"effective_price": 399900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 231.69,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 150,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 716,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2941,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 216477,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 268464,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 319920,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2075,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2075,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 300327
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 19995,
"effective_price": 399900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 231.69,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 150,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 716,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3558,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 193512,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 245499,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 379905,
"monthly_mi": 190,
"monthly_pi": 2502,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2692,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 357226
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 13997,
"effective_price": 399900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 231.69,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 150,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 716,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3528,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 185703,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 237690,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 392657,
"monthly_mi": 180,
"monthly_pi": 2482,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2662,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 367570
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 399900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 231.69,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 150,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 716,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3487,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 169220,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 221207,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 399900,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2620,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2620,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 375822
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 399900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 231.69,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 150,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 716,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3422,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 165308,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 217295,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 408498,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2555,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2555,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 381956
}
}
},
"id": "a7222ed2def7",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"preferred_lender"
],
"negotiability_score": 50,
"original_price": 399900,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 399900,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, preferred-lender requirement.",
"sqft": 1726,
"subdivision": "Drakes Lndg Ph 2 Amending Plat",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "1212 Madyson Lane",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 7.96,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 3.55,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "1008 Mill Creek Lane",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "1008-mill-creek-lane-salado",
"price": 399000,
"price_per_sqft": 224.16,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1780,
"sqft_delta": -29,
"subdivision": "Mill Creek Sec 2",
"year_built": 1978
},
{
"address": "401 Salado Plaza Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "401-salado-plaza-drive-salado",
"price": 200000,
"price_per_sqft": 108.64,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1841,
"sqft_delta": 32,
"subdivision": "",
"year_built": 1980
},
{
"address": "10223 Southshore Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "10223-southshore-drive-salado",
"price": 419000,
"price_per_sqft": 236.72,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1770,
"sqft_delta": -39,
"subdivision": "Southshore Sub",
"year_built": 2005
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 1008 Mill Creek Lane, 401 Salado Plaza Drive, 10223 Southshore Drive, this new-construction card is $8/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 224.16,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 232.12,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "White River Homes",
"city": "Salado",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 63,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 232.12,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3593,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 228162,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -53728,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 504,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 232.12,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3661,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 232270,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -49620,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 572,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 229.8,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3463,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 244047,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -37843,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 374,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 232.12,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3705,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 249578,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -32312,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 616,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 232.12,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3736,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 257777,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -24113,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 647,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 232.12,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3089,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 281890,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 232.12,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 910,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 487084,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 205194,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -2179,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 4199,
"down_payment": 20785,
"effective_price": 415701,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 229.8,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 156,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 745,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3463,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 190006,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 244047,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 394916,
"monthly_mi": 197,
"monthly_pi": 2365,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2563,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 370730
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 419900,
"effective_price": 419900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 232.12,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 157,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 752,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 910,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 432497,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 487084,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 83980,
"effective_price": 419900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 232.12,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 157,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 752,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3089,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 227303,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 281890,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 335920,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2179,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2179,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 315347
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 20995,
"effective_price": 419900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 232.12,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 157,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 752,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3736,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 203190,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 257777,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 398905,
"monthly_mi": 199,
"monthly_pi": 2627,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2827,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 375092
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 14697,
"effective_price": 419900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 232.12,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 157,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 752,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3705,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 194991,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 249578,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 412295,
"monthly_mi": 189,
"monthly_pi": 2606,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2795,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 385953
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 419900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 232.12,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 157,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 752,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3661,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 177683,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 232270,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 419900,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2751,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2751,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 394618
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 419900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 232.12,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 157,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 752,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3593,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 173575,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 228162,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 428928,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2683,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2683,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 401059
}
}
},
"id": "b64db05e3bf0",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"preferred_lender"
],
"negotiability_score": 50,
"original_price": 419900,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 419900,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, preferred-lender requirement.",
"sqft": 1809,
"subdivision": "Drakes Lndg Ph 2 Amending Plat",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "9009 Chalk Maple Drive",
"apr": "6.293%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 35.94,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 22.95,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "604 Totem Trail",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "604-totem-trail-harker-heights",
"price": 248000,
"price_per_sqft": 163.91,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1513,
"sqft_delta": 44,
"subdivision": "Skipcha Mountain Estates Ph",
"year_built": 1995
},
{
"address": "1100 Chablis Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1100-chablis-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 220000,
"price_per_sqft": 143.51,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1533,
"sqft_delta": 64,
"subdivision": "The Vineyard",
"year_built": 1994
},
{
"address": "304 Blackfoot Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "304-blackfoot-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 219900,
"price_per_sqft": 156.62,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1404,
"sqft_delta": -65,
"subdivision": "Skipcha Mountain Estates Ph",
"year_built": 1988
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 604 Totem Trail, 1100 Chablis Drive, 304 Blackfoot Drive, this new-construction card is $36/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 156.62,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 192.56,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Killeen",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 53,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 192.56,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2420,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 153702,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -36194,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 339,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 192.56,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2466,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 156469,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -33427,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 385,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 190.63,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2333,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 164402,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -25494,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 252,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 192.56,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2496,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 168128,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -21768,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 415,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 192.56,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2517,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 173652,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -16244,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 436,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 192.56,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2081,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 189896,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 192.56,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 613,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 328125,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 138229,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1468,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 2829,
"down_payment": 14002,
"effective_price": 280037,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 190.63,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 105,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 502,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2333,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 127997,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 164402,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 266035,
"monthly_mi": 133,
"monthly_pi": 1593,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1726,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 249742
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 282866,
"effective_price": 282866,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 192.56,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 106,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 507,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 613,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 291352,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 328125,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 56573,
"effective_price": 282866,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 192.56,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 106,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 507,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2081,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 153123,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 189896,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 226293,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1468,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1468,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 212434
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 14143,
"effective_price": 282866,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 192.56,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 106,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 507,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2517,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 136879,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 173652,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 268723,
"monthly_mi": 134,
"monthly_pi": 1770,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1904,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 252681
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 9900,
"effective_price": 282866,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 192.56,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 106,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 507,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2496,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 131356,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 168128,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 277743,
"monthly_mi": 127,
"monthly_pi": 1756,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1883,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 259998
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 282866,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 192.56,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 106,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 507,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2466,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 119696,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 156469,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 282866,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1854,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1854,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 265835
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 282866,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 192.56,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 106,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 507,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2420,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 116929,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 153702,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 288948,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1807,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1807,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 270173
}
}
},
"id": "034766078d87",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate"
],
"negotiability_score": 49,
"original_price": 280966,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 282866,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": "5.49%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive.",
"sqft": 1469,
"subdivision": "Preserve at Thousand Oaks",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "8910 Chalk Maple Drive",
"apr": "5.775%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 25.7,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 17.07,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "308 Live Oak Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "308-live-oak-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 335000,
"price_per_sqft": 180.89,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1852,
"sqft_delta": -2,
"subdivision": "Highland Oaks Estates Sec",
"year_built": 1973
},
{
"address": "220 W Mockingbird Ln",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "220-w-mockingbird-ln-harker-heights",
"price": 235000,
"price_per_sqft": 126.96,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1851,
"sqft_delta": -3,
"subdivision": "",
"year_built": 1975
},
{
"address": "1711 Lynx Circle",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1711-lynx-circle-harker-heights",
"price": 280000,
"price_per_sqft": 150.54,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1860,
"sqft_delta": 6,
"subdivision": "Country Trails Add 6th Ph",
"year_built": 1993
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 308 Live Oak Drive, 220 W Mockingbird Ln, 1711 Lynx Circle, this new-construction card is $26/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 150.54,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 176.24,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Killeen",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 5,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.24,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2796,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 177550,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -41809,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 393,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.24,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2849,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 180746,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -38613,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 446,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.48,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2695,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 189910,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -29449,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 292,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.24,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2883,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 194215,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -25144,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 480,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.24,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2908,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 200596,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -18763,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 505,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.24,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2403,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 219359,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.24,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 708,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 379036,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 159677,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1695,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 3268,
"down_payment": 16174,
"effective_price": 323487,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.48,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 121,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 580,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2695,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 147857,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 189910,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 307313,
"monthly_mi": 154,
"monthly_pi": 1841,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1994,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 288492
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 326755,
"effective_price": 326755,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.24,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 123,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 585,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 708,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 336558,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 379036,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 65351,
"effective_price": 326755,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.24,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 123,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 585,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2403,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 176881,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 219359,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 261404,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1695,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1695,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 245395
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 16338,
"effective_price": 326755,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.24,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 123,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 585,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2908,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 158117,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 200596,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 310417,
"monthly_mi": 155,
"monthly_pi": 2044,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2200,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 291886
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 11436,
"effective_price": 326755,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.24,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 123,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 585,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2883,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 151736,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 194215,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 320837,
"monthly_mi": 147,
"monthly_pi": 2028,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2175,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 300338
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 326755,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.24,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 123,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 585,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2849,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 138268,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 180746,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 326755,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2141,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2141,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 307081
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 326755,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 176.24,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 123,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 585,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2796,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 135072,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 177550,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 333780,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2088,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2088,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 312093
}
}
},
"id": "a4e3b8601eb4",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"preferred_lender"
],
"negotiability_score": 49,
"original_price": 326755,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 326755,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": "4.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, preferred-lender requirement.",
"sqft": 1854,
"subdivision": "Preserve at Thousand Oaks",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "622 Campus Street",
"apr": "6.23%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": -20.76,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": -11.37,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "1503 E Calhoun Avenue",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1503-e-calhoun-avenue-temple",
"price": 184900,
"price_per_sqft": 157.23,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1176,
"sqft_delta": 2,
"subdivision": "Highland Terrace Annex Ph I",
"year_built": 1999
},
{
"address": "1607 Ridgeway Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1607-ridgeway-drive-temple",
"price": 214000,
"price_per_sqft": 182.59,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1172,
"sqft_delta": -2,
"subdivision": "Oak Hills Sec Two Ph Tw",
"year_built": 1988
},
{
"address": "1319 N 12th Street",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1319-n-12th-street-temple",
"price": 215000,
"price_per_sqft": 183.45,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1172,
"sqft_delta": -2,
"subdivision": "Patterson Add Ph One",
"year_built": 1996
}
],
"favorable": true,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 1503 E Calhoun Avenue, 1607 Ridgeway Drive, 1319 N 12th Street, this new-construction card is $21/sqft cheaper on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 182.59,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 161.83,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Troy",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 4,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 161.83,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1626,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 103235,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -24310,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 229,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 161.83,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1657,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 105094,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -22451,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 260,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 160.21,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1567,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 110423,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -17122,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 170,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 161.83,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1676,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 112925,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -14620,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 279,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 161.83,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1691,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 116635,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -10910,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 294,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 161.83,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1397,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 127545,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 161.83,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 412,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 220388,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 92843,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -985,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 1900,
"down_payment": 9404,
"effective_price": 188090,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 160.21,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 71,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 337,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1567,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 85971,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 110423,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 178686,
"monthly_mi": 89,
"monthly_pi": 1070,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1160,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 167742
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 189990,
"effective_price": 189990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 161.83,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 71,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 340,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 412,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 195690,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 220388,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 37998,
"effective_price": 189990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 161.83,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 71,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 340,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1397,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 102847,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 127545,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 151992,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 986,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 986,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 142684
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 9500,
"effective_price": 189990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 161.83,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 71,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 340,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1691,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 91937,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 116635,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 180490,
"monthly_mi": 90,
"monthly_pi": 1189,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1279,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 169716
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 6650,
"effective_price": 189990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 161.83,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 71,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 340,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1676,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 88226,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 112925,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 186549,
"monthly_mi": 86,
"monthly_pi": 1179,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1265,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 174630
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 189990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 161.83,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 71,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 340,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1657,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 80395,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 105094,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 189990,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1245,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1245,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 178551
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 189990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 161.83,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 71,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 340,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1626,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 78537,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 103235,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 194075,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1214,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1214,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 181465
}
}
},
"id": "c96e3f657cc0",
"incentive_types": [
"closing_costs",
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate",
"preferred_lender"
],
"negotiability_score": 49,
"original_price": 189990,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 189990,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": "4.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: closing-cost concession language, limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive, preferred-lender requirement.",
"sqft": 1174,
"subdivision": "College Park",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "312 Mitchell Street",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": -7.54,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": -3.64,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "3115 Pitchfork Circle",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "3115-pitchfork-circle-belton",
"price": 278500,
"price_per_sqft": 173.2,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1608,
"sqft_delta": 6,
"subdivision": "Dawson Ranch Sec I Ph I",
"year_built": 2006
},
{
"address": "1961 Fm 1670",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "1961-fm-1670-belton",
"price": 565000,
"price_per_sqft": 354.01,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1596,
"sqft_delta": -6,
"subdivision": "O T Tilley Add",
"year_built": 1984
},
{
"address": "2255 Shirley Loop",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "2255-shirley-loop-belton",
"price": 330000,
"price_per_sqft": 207.29,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1592,
"sqft_delta": -10,
"subdivision": "Village Of Armstrong Add",
"year_built": 2007
}
],
"favorable": true,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 3115 Pitchfork Circle, 1961 Fm 1670, 2255 Shirley Loop, this new-construction card is $8/sqft cheaper on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 207.29,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 199.75,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Joel Duran Homes",
"city": "Belton",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 95,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 199.75,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2738,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 173879,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -40946,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 384,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 199.75,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2790,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 177010,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -37815,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 436,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 197.75,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2639,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 185985,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -28840,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 285,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 199.75,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2823,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 190200,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -24625,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 469,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 199.75,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2847,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 196449,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -18376,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 493,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 199.75,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2354,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 214825,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 199.75,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 693,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 371200,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 156375,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1661,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 3200,
"down_payment": 15840,
"effective_price": 316800,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 197.75,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 119,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 568,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2639,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 144801,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 185985,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 300960,
"monthly_mi": 150,
"monthly_pi": 1802,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1953,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 282528
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 320000,
"effective_price": 320000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 199.75,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 120,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 573,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 693,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 329600,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 371200,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 64000,
"effective_price": 320000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 199.75,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 120,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 573,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2354,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 173225,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 214825,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 256000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1660,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1660,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 240322
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 16000,
"effective_price": 320000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 199.75,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 120,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 573,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2847,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 154849,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 196449,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 304000,
"monthly_mi": 152,
"monthly_pi": 2002,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2154,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 285852
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 11200,
"effective_price": 320000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 199.75,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 120,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 573,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2823,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 148600,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 190200,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 314204,
"monthly_mi": 144,
"monthly_pi": 1986,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2130,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 294129
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 320000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 199.75,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 120,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 573,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2790,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 135410,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 177010,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 320000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2097,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2097,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 300733
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 320000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 199.75,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 120,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 573,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2738,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 132279,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 173879,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 326880,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2045,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2045,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 305641
}
}
},
"id": "59f895a9e74a",
"incentive_types": [
"preferred_lender"
],
"negotiability_score": 48,
"original_price": 320000,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 320000,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: preferred-lender requirement.",
"sqft": 1602,
"subdivision": "W Y MCFARLAND",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "1010 High Plains Drive",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 39.55,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 23.83,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "3917 Walden Creek Crossing",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "3917-walden-creek-crossing-harker-heights",
"price": 420000,
"price_per_sqft": 165.94,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 2531,
"sqft_delta": 1,
"subdivision": "The Colony Ph Two",
"year_built": 2007
},
{
"address": "425 Woodland Point Road",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "425-woodland-point-road-belton",
"price": 349950,
"price_per_sqft": 138.7,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2523,
"sqft_delta": -7,
"subdivision": "Woodland Point",
"year_built": 1961
},
{
"address": "7143 Kc Ranch Court",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "7143-kc-ranch-court-temple",
"price": 519900,
"price_per_sqft": 206.06,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-14-2026-mls-templebelton.csv",
"sqft": 2523,
"sqft_delta": -7,
"subdivision": "Knob Crk Ranch",
"year_built": 2021
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 3917 Walden Creek Crossing, 425 Woodland Point Road, 7143 Kc Ranch Court, this new-construction card is $40/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 165.94,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 205.49,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Hodges Eagle Ridge Builders",
"city": "Nolanville",
"closing_credit": 10000,
"dom": 39,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 205.49,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4448,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 272799,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -66524,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 624,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 205.49,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4533,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 277886,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -61437,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 709,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 205.49,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4587,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 299315,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -40008,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 763,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 205.49,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4331,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 300614,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -38709,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 507,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 205.49,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4626,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 309468,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -29855,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 802,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 205.49,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3824,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 339323,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 205.49,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1126,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 593384,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 254061,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -2698,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 25995,
"effective_price": 519900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 205.49,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 195,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 931,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4331,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 233027,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 300614,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 493905,
"monthly_mi": 247,
"monthly_pi": 2958,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3205,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 463657
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 519900,
"effective_price": 519900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 205.49,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 195,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 931,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1126,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 525797,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 593384,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 103980,
"effective_price": 519900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 205.49,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 195,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 931,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3824,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 271736,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 339323,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 415920,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2698,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2698,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 390448
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 25995,
"effective_price": 519900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 205.49,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 195,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 931,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4626,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 241881,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 309468,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 493905,
"monthly_mi": 247,
"monthly_pi": 3253,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3500,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 464420
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 18196,
"effective_price": 519900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 205.49,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 195,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 931,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4587,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 231728,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 299315,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 510483,
"monthly_mi": 234,
"monthly_pi": 3227,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3461,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 477868
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 519900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 205.49,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 195,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 931,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4533,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 210299,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 277886,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 519900,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3407,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3407,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 488597
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 10000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 519900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 205.49,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 195,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 931,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4448,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 205212,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 272799,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 531078,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3322,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3322,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 496571
}
}
},
"id": "5aa86366c0a9",
"incentive_types": [
"builder_concession",
"closing_costs",
"title_policy_survey"
],
"negotiability_score": 48,
"original_price": 529900,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 529900,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: builder concession language, closing-cost concession language, title policy or survey language.",
"sqft": 2530,
"subdivision": "Bella Charca Ph X",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "1331 Rylee Lane",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 9.97,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 4.66,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "8099 Fm 2484",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "8099-fm-2484-salado",
"price": 389900,
"price_per_sqft": 188.27,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2071,
"sqft_delta": -15,
"subdivision": "Salado Spgs Estates Sec",
"year_built": 1999
},
{
"address": "2068 Pirtle Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "2068-pirtle-drive-salado",
"price": 449900,
"price_per_sqft": 214.14,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2101,
"sqft_delta": 15,
"subdivision": "Salado Lakeview Fka Cedar Kno",
"year_built": 2012
},
{
"address": "3110 Saint Luke Street",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "3110-saint-luke-street-salado",
"price": 495000,
"price_per_sqft": 244.57,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2024,
"sqft_delta": -62,
"subdivision": "Chick Add Ph Vii",
"year_built": 2017
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 8099 Fm 2484, 2068 Pirtle Drive, 3110 Saint Luke Street, this new-construction card is $10/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 214.14,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 224.11,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": null,
"city": "Salado",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 106,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 224.11,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4000,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 254027,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -59818,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 561,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 224.11,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4076,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 258600,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -55245,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 637,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 221.87,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3856,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 271712,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -42133,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 417,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 224.11,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4125,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 277870,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -35975,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 686,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 224.11,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4160,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 286999,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -26846,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 721,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 224.11,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3439,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 313845,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 224.11,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1013,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 542300,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 228455,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -2426,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 4675,
"down_payment": 23141,
"effective_price": 462825,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 221.87,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 174,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 829,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3856,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 211545,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 271712,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 439684,
"monthly_mi": 220,
"monthly_pi": 2633,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2853,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 412756
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 467500,
"effective_price": 467500,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 224.11,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 175,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 838,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1013,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 481525,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 542300,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 93500,
"effective_price": 467500,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 224.11,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 175,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 838,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3439,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 253070,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 313845,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 374000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2426,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2426,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 351095
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 23375,
"effective_price": 467500,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 224.11,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 175,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 838,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4160,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 226224,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 286999,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 444125,
"monthly_mi": 222,
"monthly_pi": 2925,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3147,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 417612
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 16363,
"effective_price": 467500,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 224.11,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 175,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 838,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4125,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 217095,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 277870,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 459032,
"monthly_mi": 210,
"monthly_pi": 2901,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3112,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 429705
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 467500,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 224.11,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 175,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 838,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4076,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 197825,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 258600,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 467500,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3063,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3063,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 439352
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 467500,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 224.11,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 175,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 838,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4000,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 193252,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 254027,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 477551,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2987,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2987,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 446523
}
}
},
"id": "800870463e04",
"incentive_types": [
"lender_credit"
],
"negotiability_score": 47,
"original_price": 467500,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 467500,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: lender-credit language.",
"sqft": 2086,
"subdivision": "Drakes Landing Phase II",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "1986 Rosson Street",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 4.05,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 2.38,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "2115 Jefferson Court",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "2115-jefferson-court-belton",
"price": 257000,
"price_per_sqft": 152.43,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1686,
"sqft_delta": 0,
"subdivision": "Liberty Valley Ph II",
"year_built": 2013
},
{
"address": "4 Sobrante Road",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "4-sobrante-road-belton",
"price": 374000,
"price_per_sqft": 221.83,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1686,
"sqft_delta": 0,
"subdivision": "Holly Oaks Landing",
"year_built": 2005
},
{
"address": "812 Glenstone Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "812-glenstone-drive-temple",
"price": 287000,
"price_per_sqft": 170.33,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1685,
"sqft_delta": -1,
"subdivision": "Wyndham Hill Add Ph V",
"year_built": 2017
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 2115 Jefferson Court, 4 Sobrante Road, 812 Glenstone Drive, this new-construction card is $4/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 170.33,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 174.38,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Sandor Homes",
"city": "Nolanville",
"closing_credit": 15000,
"dom": 98,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.38,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2516,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 150932,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -37618,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 353,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.38,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2563,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 153808,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -34742,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 400,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.38,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2594,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 165926,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -22624,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 431,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.38,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2449,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 166660,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -21890,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 286,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.38,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2616,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 171667,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -16883,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 453,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.38,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2163,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 188550,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.38,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 637,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 332220,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 143670,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1526,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 14700,
"effective_price": 294000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.38,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 110,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 527,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2449,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 128440,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 166660,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 279300,
"monthly_mi": 140,
"monthly_pi": 1673,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1812,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 262195
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 294000,
"effective_price": 294000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.38,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 110,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 527,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 637,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 294000,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 332220,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 58800,
"effective_price": 294000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.38,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 110,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 527,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2163,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 150330,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 188550,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 235200,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1526,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1526,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 220796
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 14700,
"effective_price": 294000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.38,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 110,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 527,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2616,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 133447,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 171667,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 279300,
"monthly_mi": 140,
"monthly_pi": 1839,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1979,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 262627
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 10290,
"effective_price": 294000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.38,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 110,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 527,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2594,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 127706,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 165926,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 288675,
"monthly_mi": 132,
"monthly_pi": 1825,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1957,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 270231
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 294000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.38,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 110,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 527,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2563,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 115588,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 153808,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 294000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1926,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1926,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 276299
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 15000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 294000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.38,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 110,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 527,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2516,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 112712,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 150932,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 300321,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1879,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1879,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 280808
}
}
},
"id": "d623dda0340a",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings"
],
"negotiability_score": 44,
"original_price": 309000,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 309000,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language.",
"sqft": 1686,
"subdivision": "Warriors Legacy Ph 2-B",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "3711 Southern Catapla Drive",
"apr": "5.775%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 25.34,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 16.83,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "308 Live Oak Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "308-live-oak-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 335000,
"price_per_sqft": 180.89,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1852,
"sqft_delta": -2,
"subdivision": "Highland Oaks Estates Sec",
"year_built": 1973
},
{
"address": "220 W Mockingbird Ln",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "220-w-mockingbird-ln-harker-heights",
"price": 235000,
"price_per_sqft": 126.96,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1851,
"sqft_delta": -3,
"subdivision": "",
"year_built": 1975
},
{
"address": "1711 Lynx Circle",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1711-lynx-circle-harker-heights",
"price": 280000,
"price_per_sqft": 150.54,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1860,
"sqft_delta": 6,
"subdivision": "Country Trails Add 6th Ph",
"year_built": 1993
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 308 Live Oak Drive, 220 W Mockingbird Ln, 1711 Lynx Circle, this new-construction card is $25/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 150.54,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 175.88,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Killeen",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 33,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 175.88,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2790,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 177188,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -41725,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 391,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 175.88,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2843,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 180378,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -38535,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 444,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.13,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2690,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 189524,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -29389,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 291,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 175.88,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2877,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 193819,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -25094,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 478,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 175.88,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2902,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 200187,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -18726,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 503,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 175.88,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2399,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 218913,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 175.88,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 707,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 378264,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 159351,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1692,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 3261,
"down_payment": 16141,
"effective_price": 322829,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 174.13,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 121,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 578,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2690,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 147556,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 189524,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 306688,
"monthly_mi": 153,
"monthly_pi": 1837,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1990,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 287905
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 326090,
"effective_price": 326090,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 175.88,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 122,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 584,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 707,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 335873,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 378264,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 65218,
"effective_price": 326090,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 175.88,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 122,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 584,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2399,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 176521,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 218913,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 260872,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1692,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1692,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 244895
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 16304,
"effective_price": 326090,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 175.88,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 122,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 584,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2902,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 157796,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 200187,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 309786,
"monthly_mi": 155,
"monthly_pi": 2040,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2195,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 291292
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 11413,
"effective_price": 326090,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 175.88,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 122,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 584,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2877,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 151428,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 193819,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 320184,
"monthly_mi": 147,
"monthly_pi": 2024,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2171,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 299727
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 326090,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 175.88,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 122,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 584,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2843,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 137987,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 180378,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 326090,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2137,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2137,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 306456
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 326090,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 175.88,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 122,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 584,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2790,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 134797,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 177188,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 333101,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2084,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2084,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 311458
}
}
},
"id": "2ed4e2899606",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate"
],
"negotiability_score": 43,
"original_price": 320690,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 326090,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": "4.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive.",
"sqft": 1854,
"subdivision": "Preserve at Thousand Oaks",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "1982 Rosson Street",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 25.34,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 17.18,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "3632 North Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "3632-north-drive-belton",
"price": 459900,
"price_per_sqft": 237.43,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1937,
"sqft_delta": -1,
"subdivision": "Pine Terrace Sub",
"year_built": 1996
},
{
"address": "20 W Nugent Avenue",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "20-w-nugent-avenue-temple",
"price": 285900,
"price_per_sqft": 147.22,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1942,
"sqft_delta": 4,
"subdivision": "",
"year_built": 1942
},
{
"address": "2611 Settlers Oak Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "2611-settlers-oak-drive-belton",
"price": 285000,
"price_per_sqft": 147.52,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1932,
"sqft_delta": -6,
"subdivision": "Hubbard Branch Add Ph",
"year_built": 2021
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 3632 North Drive, 20 W Nugent Avenue, 2611 Settlers Oak Drive, this new-construction card is $25/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 147.52,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 172.86,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Sandor Homes",
"city": "Nolanville",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 39,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.86,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2866,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 182030,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -42865,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 402,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.86,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2921,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 185307,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -39588,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 457,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 171.13,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2763,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 194703,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -30192,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 299,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.86,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2956,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 199115,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -25780,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 492,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.86,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2981,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 205657,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -19238,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 517,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.86,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2464,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 224895,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.86,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 726,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 388600,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 163705,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1738,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 3350,
"down_payment": 16582,
"effective_price": 331650,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 171.13,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 124,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 594,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2763,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 151588,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 194703,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 315068,
"monthly_mi": 158,
"monthly_pi": 1887,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2044,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 295772
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 335000,
"effective_price": 335000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.86,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 126,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 600,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 726,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 345050,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 388600,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 67000,
"effective_price": 335000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.86,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 126,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 600,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2464,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 181345,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 224895,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 268000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1738,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1738,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 251587
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 16750,
"effective_price": 335000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.86,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 126,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 600,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2981,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 162107,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 205657,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 318250,
"monthly_mi": 159,
"monthly_pi": 2096,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2255,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 299251
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 11725,
"effective_price": 335000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.86,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 126,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 600,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2956,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 155565,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 199115,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 328932,
"monthly_mi": 151,
"monthly_pi": 2079,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2230,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 307917
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 335000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.86,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 126,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 600,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2921,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 141757,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 185307,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 335000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2195,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2195,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 314830
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 335000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.86,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 126,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 600,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2866,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 138480,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 182030,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 342202,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2140,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2140,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 319968
}
}
},
"id": "91c1ab9e36ec",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"preferred_lender"
],
"negotiability_score": 42,
"original_price": 335000,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 335000,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, preferred-lender requirement.",
"sqft": 1938,
"subdivision": "Warriors Legacy Ph 2-B",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "6916 Castlerock Drive",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 36.21,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 16.38,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "3901 Midway Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "3901-midway-drive-temple",
"price": 420000,
"price_per_sqft": 136.23,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-14-2026-mls-templebelton.csv",
"sqft": 3083,
"sqft_delta": 13,
"subdivision": "Southern Oaks",
"year_built": 1948
},
{
"address": "5304 Sunflower Lane",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "5304-sunflower-lane-temple",
"price": 690000,
"price_per_sqft": 225.71,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 3057,
"sqft_delta": -13,
"subdivision": "Wildflower Country Club Ph",
"year_built": 2014
},
{
"address": "705 Haymarket Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "705-haymarket-drive-temple",
"price": 675000,
"price_per_sqft": 221.09,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 3053,
"sqft_delta": -17,
"subdivision": "Hartrick Valley Estates",
"year_built": 2018
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 3901 Midway Drive, 5304 Sunflower Lane, 705 Haymarket Drive, this new-construction card is $36/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 221.09,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 257.3,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Hodges Eagle Ridge Builders",
"city": "Temple",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 17,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 257.3,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6759,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 429210,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -101071,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 949,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 257.3,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6887,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 436938,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -93343,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 1077,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 254.72,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6515,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 459092,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -71189,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 705,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 257.3,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6969,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 469496,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -60785,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 1159,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 257.3,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 7029,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 484921,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -45360,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 1219,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 257.3,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5810,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 530281,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 257.3,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1711,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 916284,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 386003,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -4099,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 7899,
"down_payment": 39100,
"effective_price": 782001,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 254.72,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 293,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1401,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6515,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 357432,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 459092,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 742901,
"monthly_mi": 371,
"monthly_pi": 4449,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4821,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 697404
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 789900,
"effective_price": 789900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 257.3,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 296,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1415,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1711,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 813597,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 916284,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 157980,
"effective_price": 789900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 257.3,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 296,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1415,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5810,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 427594,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 530281,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 631920,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 4099,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4099,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 593219
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 39495,
"effective_price": 789900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 257.3,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 296,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1415,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 7029,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 382234,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 484921,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 750405,
"monthly_mi": 375,
"monthly_pi": 4942,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 5317,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 705608
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 27647,
"effective_price": 789900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 257.3,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 296,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1415,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6969,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 366809,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 469496,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 775593,
"monthly_mi": 355,
"monthly_pi": 4902,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 5258,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 726040
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 789900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 257.3,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 296,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1415,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6887,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 334251,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 436938,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 789900,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 5176,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 5176,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 742341
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 789900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 257.3,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 296,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1415,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6759,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 326523,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 429210,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 806883,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 5047,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 5047,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 754456
}
}
},
"id": "bb5a6ac47636",
"incentive_types": [
"builder_concession",
"closing_costs",
"title_policy_survey"
],
"negotiability_score": 40,
"original_price": 789900,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 789900,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: builder concession language, closing-cost concession language, title policy or survey language.",
"sqft": 3070,
"subdivision": "Fryers Bend",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "2134 Iron Branch Road",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 37.07,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 16.77,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "5304 Sunflower Lane",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "5304-sunflower-lane-temple",
"price": 690000,
"price_per_sqft": 225.71,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 3057,
"sqft_delta": -7,
"subdivision": "Wildflower Country Club Ph",
"year_built": 2014
},
{
"address": "705 Haymarket Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "705-haymarket-drive-temple",
"price": 675000,
"price_per_sqft": 221.09,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 3053,
"sqft_delta": -11,
"subdivision": "Hartrick Valley Estates",
"year_built": 2018
},
{
"address": "3901 Midway Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "3901-midway-drive-temple",
"price": 420000,
"price_per_sqft": 136.23,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-14-2026-mls-templebelton.csv",
"sqft": 3083,
"sqft_delta": 19,
"subdivision": "Southern Oaks",
"year_built": 1948
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 5304 Sunflower Lane, 705 Haymarket Drive, 3901 Midway Drive, this new-construction card is $37/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 221.09,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 258.16,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Hodges Eagle Ridge Builders",
"city": "Temple",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 17,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 258.16,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6768,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 429808,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -101212,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 950,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 258.16,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6897,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 437546,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -93474,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 1079,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 255.58,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6524,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 459731,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -71289,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 706,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 258.16,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6979,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 470150,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -60870,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 1161,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 258.16,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 7039,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 485597,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -45423,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 1221,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 258.16,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5818,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 531020,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 258.16,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1714,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 917560,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 386540,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -4104,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 7910,
"down_payment": 39154,
"effective_price": 783090,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 255.58,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 294,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1403,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6524,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 357930,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 459731,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 743936,
"monthly_mi": 372,
"monthly_pi": 4455,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4827,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 698375
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 791000,
"effective_price": 791000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 258.16,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 297,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1417,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1714,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 814730,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 917560,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 158200,
"effective_price": 791000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 258.16,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 297,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1417,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5818,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 428190,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 531020,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 632800,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 4104,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4104,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 594045
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 39550,
"effective_price": 791000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 258.16,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 297,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1417,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 7039,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 382767,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 485597,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 751450,
"monthly_mi": 376,
"monthly_pi": 4949,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 5325,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 706591
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 27685,
"effective_price": 791000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 258.16,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 297,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1417,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6979,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 367320,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 470150,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 776673,
"monthly_mi": 356,
"monthly_pi": 4909,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 5265,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 727051
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 791000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 258.16,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 297,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1417,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6897,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 334716,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 437546,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 791000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 5183,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 5183,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 743375
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 791000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 258.16,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 297,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1417,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6768,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 326978,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 429808,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 808006,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 5054,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 5054,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 755507
}
}
},
"id": "cf3d8cf8ba00",
"incentive_types": [
"builder_concession",
"closing_costs",
"title_policy_survey"
],
"negotiability_score": 40,
"original_price": 791000,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 791000,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: builder concession language, closing-cost concession language, title policy or survey language.",
"sqft": 3064,
"subdivision": "Fryers Bend",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "1808 Gigante Drive",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 51.79,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 38.88,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "1602 Indian Trail",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1602-indian-trail-harker-heights",
"price": 165000,
"price_per_sqft": 122.04,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1352,
"sqft_delta": 2,
"subdivision": "Comanche Land 1st Unit",
"year_built": 1982
},
{
"address": "4214 Broken Arrow Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "4214-broken-arrow-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 239700,
"price_per_sqft": 174.71,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1372,
"sqft_delta": 22,
"subdivision": "Broken Arrow Lake Estates Sec",
"year_built": 1977
},
{
"address": "3908 Lakecliff Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "3908-lakecliff-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 174900,
"price_per_sqft": 133.21,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1313,
"sqft_delta": -37,
"subdivision": "Cherokee Lane",
"year_built": 1996
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 1602 Indian Trail, 4214 Broken Arrow Drive, 3908 Lakecliff Drive, this new-construction card is $52/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 133.21,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 185.0,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Summit Valor Homes",
"city": "Killeen",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 45,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.0,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2137,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 135707,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -31957,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 300,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.0,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2178,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 138151,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -29513,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 341,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 183.15,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2060,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 145155,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -22509,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 223,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.0,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2204,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 148445,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -19219,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 367,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.0,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2222,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 153322,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -14342,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 385,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.0,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1837,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 167664,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.0,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 541,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 289710,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 122046,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1296,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 2498,
"down_payment": 12363,
"effective_price": 247252,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 183.15,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 93,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 443,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2060,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 113012,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 145155,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 234889,
"monthly_mi": 117,
"monthly_pi": 1407,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1524,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 220504
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 249750,
"effective_price": 249750,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.0,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 94,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 447,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 541,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 257242,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 289710,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 49950,
"effective_price": 249750,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.0,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 94,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 447,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1837,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 135196,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 167664,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 199800,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1296,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1296,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 187564
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 12488,
"effective_price": 249750,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.0,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 94,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 447,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2222,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 120855,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 153322,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 237262,
"monthly_mi": 119,
"monthly_pi": 1563,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1681,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 223099
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 8741,
"effective_price": 249750,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.0,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 94,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 447,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2204,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 115977,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 148445,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 245226,
"monthly_mi": 112,
"monthly_pi": 1550,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1662,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 229559
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 249750,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.0,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 94,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 447,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2178,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 105683,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 138151,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 249750,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1637,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1637,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 234713
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 249750,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.0,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 94,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 447,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2137,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 103240,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 135707,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 255120,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1596,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1596,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 238543
}
}
},
"id": "eaa51b8e26af",
"incentive_types": [
"builder_concession",
"closing_costs"
],
"negotiability_score": 39,
"original_price": 249750,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 249750,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: builder concession language, closing-cost concession language.",
"sqft": 1350,
"subdivision": "Lakeview Park Sub",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "1218 Madyson Lane",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 6.89,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 3.01,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "312 Ow Lowrey",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "312-ow-lowrey-salado",
"price": 394500,
"price_per_sqft": 229.09,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1722,
"sqft_delta": -15,
"subdivision": "Mill Creek Courtyard Village",
"year_built": 2002
},
{
"address": "10223 Southshore Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "10223-southshore-drive-salado",
"price": 419000,
"price_per_sqft": 236.72,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1770,
"sqft_delta": 33,
"subdivision": "Southshore Sub",
"year_built": 2005
},
{
"address": "1008 Mill Creek Lane",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "1008-mill-creek-lane-salado",
"price": 399000,
"price_per_sqft": 224.16,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1780,
"sqft_delta": 43,
"subdivision": "Mill Creek Sec 2",
"year_built": 1978
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 312 Ow Lowrey, 10223 Southshore Drive, 1008 Mill Creek Lane, this new-construction card is $7/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 229.09,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 235.98,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": null,
"city": "Salado",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 31,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 235.98,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3507,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 222728,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -52449,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 492,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 235.98,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3574,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 226738,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -48439,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 559,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 233.62,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3381,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 238235,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -36942,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 366,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 235.98,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3617,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 243634,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -31543,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 602,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 235.98,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3647,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 251638,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -23539,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 632,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 235.98,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3015,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 275177,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 235.98,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 888,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 475484,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 200307,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -2127,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 4099,
"down_payment": 20290,
"effective_price": 405801,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 233.62,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 152,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 727,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3381,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 185481,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 238235,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 385511,
"monthly_mi": 193,
"monthly_pi": 2309,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2502,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 361901
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 409900,
"effective_price": 409900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 235.98,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 154,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 734,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 888,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 422197,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 475484,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 81980,
"effective_price": 409900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 235.98,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 154,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 734,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3015,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 221890,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 275177,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 327920,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2127,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2127,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 307837
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 20495,
"effective_price": 409900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 235.98,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 154,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 734,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3647,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 198351,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 251638,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 389405,
"monthly_mi": 195,
"monthly_pi": 2565,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2759,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 366159
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 14347,
"effective_price": 409900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 235.98,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 154,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 734,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3617,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 190347,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 243634,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 402476,
"monthly_mi": 184,
"monthly_pi": 2544,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2728,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 376761
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 409900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 235.98,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 154,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 734,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3574,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 173451,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 226738,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 409900,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2686,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2686,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 385220
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 409900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 235.98,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 154,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 734,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3507,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 169441,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 222728,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 418713,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2619,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2619,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 391507
}
}
},
"id": "237c9c705354",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"preferred_lender"
],
"negotiability_score": 39,
"original_price": 409900,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 409900,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, preferred-lender requirement.",
"sqft": 1737,
"subdivision": "Drakes Lndg Ph 2 Amending Plat",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "4106 Aguila Court",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 32.65,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 15.68,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "700 Arrowhead Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "700-arrowhead-drive-salado",
"price": 447000,
"price_per_sqft": 179.81,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2486,
"sqft_delta": -4,
"subdivision": "",
"year_built": 1994
},
{
"address": "1110 Northcross Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "1110-northcross-drive-salado",
"price": 627500,
"price_per_sqft": 251.0,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2500,
"sqft_delta": 10,
"subdivision": "Mill Crk Spgs Ph Ix",
"year_built": 2022
},
{
"address": "225 Villars Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "225-villars-drive-salado",
"price": 514000,
"price_per_sqft": 208.27,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2468,
"sqft_delta": -22,
"subdivision": "Salado Sanctuary Ph 1a",
"year_built": 2023
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 700 Arrowhead Drive, 1110 Northcross Drive, 225 Villars Drive, this new-construction card is $33/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 208.27,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 240.92,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": null,
"city": "Salado",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 23,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 240.92,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5133,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 325969,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -76760,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 720,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 240.92,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5231,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 331838,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -70891,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 818,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 238.51,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4948,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 348664,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -54065,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 535,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 240.92,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5293,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 356565,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -46164,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 880,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 240.92,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5338,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 368280,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -34449,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 925,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 240.92,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4413,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 402729,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 240.92,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1300,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 695884,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 293155,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -3113,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 5999,
"down_payment": 29695,
"effective_price": 593901,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 238.51,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 223,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1064,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4948,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 271456,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 348664,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 564206,
"monthly_mi": 282,
"monthly_pi": 3379,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3661,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 529652
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 599900,
"effective_price": 599900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 240.92,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 225,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1075,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1300,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 617897,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 695884,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 119980,
"effective_price": 599900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 240.92,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 225,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1075,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4413,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 324742,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 402729,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 479920,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3113,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3113,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 450528
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 29995,
"effective_price": 599900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 240.92,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 225,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1075,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5338,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 290293,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 368280,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 569905,
"monthly_mi": 285,
"monthly_pi": 3753,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4038,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 535883
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 20997,
"effective_price": 599900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 240.92,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 225,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1075,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5293,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 278578,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 356565,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 589034,
"monthly_mi": 270,
"monthly_pi": 3723,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3993,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 551401
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 599900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 240.92,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 225,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1075,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5231,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 253851,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 331838,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 599900,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3931,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3931,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 563781
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 599900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 240.92,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 225,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1075,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5133,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 247982,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 325969,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 612798,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3833,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3833,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 572982
}
}
},
"id": "b6877673e9cb",
"incentive_types": [
"closing_costs",
"rate_buydown"
],
"negotiability_score": 39,
"original_price": 599900,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 599900,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: closing-cost concession language, rate buydown language.",
"sqft": 2490,
"subdivision": "Eagle Ranch",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "1224 Rylee Lane",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 10.58,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 4.62,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "10223 Southshore Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "10223-southshore-drive-salado",
"price": 419000,
"price_per_sqft": 236.72,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1770,
"sqft_delta": 18,
"subdivision": "Southshore Sub",
"year_built": 2005
},
{
"address": "1008 Mill Creek Lane",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "1008-mill-creek-lane-salado",
"price": 399000,
"price_per_sqft": 224.16,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1780,
"sqft_delta": 28,
"subdivision": "Mill Creek Sec 2",
"year_built": 1978
},
{
"address": "312 Ow Lowrey",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "312-ow-lowrey-salado",
"price": 394500,
"price_per_sqft": 229.09,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1722,
"sqft_delta": -30,
"subdivision": "Mill Creek Courtyard Village",
"year_built": 2002
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 10223 Southshore Drive, 1008 Mill Creek Lane, 312 Ow Lowrey, this new-construction card is $11/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 229.09,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 239.67,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": null,
"city": "Salado",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 18,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 239.67,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3593,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 228162,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -53728,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 504,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 239.67,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3661,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 232270,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -49620,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 572,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 237.27,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3463,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 244047,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -37843,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 374,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 239.67,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3705,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 249578,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -32312,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 616,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 239.67,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3736,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 257777,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -24113,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 647,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 239.67,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3089,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 281890,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 239.67,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 910,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 487084,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 205194,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -2179,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 4199,
"down_payment": 20785,
"effective_price": 415701,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 237.27,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 156,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 745,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3463,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 190006,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 244047,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 394916,
"monthly_mi": 197,
"monthly_pi": 2365,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2563,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 370730
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 419900,
"effective_price": 419900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 239.67,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 157,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 752,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 910,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 432497,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 487084,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 83980,
"effective_price": 419900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 239.67,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 157,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 752,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3089,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 227303,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 281890,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 335920,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2179,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2179,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 315347
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 20995,
"effective_price": 419900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 239.67,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 157,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 752,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3736,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 203190,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 257777,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 398905,
"monthly_mi": 199,
"monthly_pi": 2627,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2827,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 375092
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 14697,
"effective_price": 419900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 239.67,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 157,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 752,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3705,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 194991,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 249578,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 412295,
"monthly_mi": 189,
"monthly_pi": 2606,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2795,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 385953
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 419900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 239.67,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 157,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 752,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3661,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 177683,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 232270,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 419900,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2751,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2751,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 394618
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 419900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 239.67,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 157,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 752,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3593,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 173575,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 228162,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 428928,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2683,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2683,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 401059
}
}
},
"id": "e6e3bbff89e1",
"incentive_types": [
"closing_costs",
"rate_buydown"
],
"negotiability_score": 38,
"original_price": 419900,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 419900,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: closing-cost concession language, rate buydown language.",
"sqft": 1752,
"subdivision": "Drakes Lndg Ph II",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "1230 Madyson Lane",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 12.0,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 5.6,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "2068 Pirtle Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "2068-pirtle-drive-salado",
"price": 449900,
"price_per_sqft": 214.14,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2101,
"sqft_delta": 1,
"subdivision": "Salado Lakeview Fka Cedar Kno",
"year_built": 2012
},
{
"address": "8099 Fm 2484",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "8099-fm-2484-salado",
"price": 389900,
"price_per_sqft": 188.27,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2071,
"sqft_delta": -29,
"subdivision": "Salado Spgs Estates Sec",
"year_built": 1999
},
{
"address": "11010 La Paloma Loop",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "11010-la-paloma-loop-salado",
"price": 584000,
"price_per_sqft": 270.87,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2156,
"sqft_delta": 56,
"subdivision": "La Paloma Sub",
"year_built": 2014
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 2068 Pirtle Drive, 8099 Fm 2484, 11010 La Paloma Loop, this new-construction card is $12/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 214.14,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 226.14,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "White River Homes",
"city": "Salado",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 27,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 226.14,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4063,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 258048,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -60765,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 570,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 226.14,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4141,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 262694,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -56119,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 648,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 223.88,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3917,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 276013,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -42800,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 424,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 226.14,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4190,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 282268,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -36545,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 697,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 226.14,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4226,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 291542,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -27271,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 733,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 226.14,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3493,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 318813,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 226.14,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1029,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 550884,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 232071,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -2464,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 4749,
"down_payment": 23508,
"effective_price": 470151,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 223.88,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 176,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 842,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3917,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 214894,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 276013,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 446643,
"monthly_mi": 223,
"monthly_pi": 2675,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2898,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 419290
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 474900,
"effective_price": 474900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 226.14,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 178,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 851,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1029,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 489147,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 550884,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 94980,
"effective_price": 474900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 226.14,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 178,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 851,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3493,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 257076,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 318813,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 379920,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2464,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2464,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 356653
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 23745,
"effective_price": 474900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 226.14,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 178,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 851,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4226,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 229805,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 291542,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 451155,
"monthly_mi": 226,
"monthly_pi": 2971,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3197,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 424222
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 16622,
"effective_price": 474900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 226.14,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 178,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 851,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4190,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 220531,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 282268,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 466298,
"monthly_mi": 214,
"monthly_pi": 2947,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3161,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 436506
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 474900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 226.14,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 178,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 851,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4141,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 200957,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 262694,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 474900,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3112,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3112,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 446307
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 474900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 226.14,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 178,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 851,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4063,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 196311,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 258048,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 485110,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3034,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3034,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 453591
}
}
},
"id": "467bb560a82d",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"preferred_lender"
],
"negotiability_score": 38,
"original_price": 474900,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 474900,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, preferred-lender requirement.",
"sqft": 2100,
"subdivision": "Drakes Lndg Ph II",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "3816 Oglala Trail",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 38.38,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 22.8,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "4612 Canyon Ridge",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "4612-canyon-ridge-temple",
"price": 225000,
"price_per_sqft": 170.84,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1317,
"sqft_delta": 1,
"subdivision": "Canyon Ridge Ph I",
"year_built": 2011
},
{
"address": "2305 Birdcreek Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "2305-birdcreek-drive-temple",
"price": 210000,
"price_per_sqft": 159.21,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-0-500.csv",
"sqft": 1319,
"sqft_delta": 3,
"subdivision": "Elmwood",
"year_built": 1962
},
{
"address": "612 Pecos Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "612-pecos-drive-temple",
"price": 222000,
"price_per_sqft": 168.31,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1319,
"sqft_delta": 3,
"subdivision": "Western Hills 8th Ext",
"year_built": 1987
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 4612 Canyon Ridge, 2305 Birdcreek Drive, 612 Pecos Drive, this new-construction card is $38/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 168.31,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 206.69,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Jerry Wright Homes",
"city": "Temple",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 65,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 206.69,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2327,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 147797,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -34804,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 326,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 206.69,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2372,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 150458,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -32143,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 371,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 204.62,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2243,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 158087,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -24514,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 242,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 206.69,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2400,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 161670,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -20931,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 399,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 206.69,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2420,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 166981,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -15620,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 419,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 206.69,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2001,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 182601,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 206.69,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 589,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 315520,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 132919,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1412,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 2720,
"down_payment": 13464,
"effective_price": 269280,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 204.62,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 101,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 482,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2243,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 123081,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 158087,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 255816,
"monthly_mi": 128,
"monthly_pi": 1532,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1660,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 240149
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 272000,
"effective_price": 272000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 206.69,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 102,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 487,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 589,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 280160,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 315520,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 54400,
"effective_price": 272000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 206.69,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 102,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 487,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2001,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 147241,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 182601,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 217600,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1411,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1411,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 204274
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 13600,
"effective_price": 272000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 206.69,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 102,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 487,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2420,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 131621,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 166981,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 258400,
"monthly_mi": 129,
"monthly_pi": 1702,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1831,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 242974
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 9520,
"effective_price": 272000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 206.69,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 102,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 487,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2400,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 126310,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 161670,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 267073,
"monthly_mi": 122,
"monthly_pi": 1688,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1810,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 250010
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 272000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 206.69,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 102,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 487,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2372,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 115098,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 150458,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 272000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1782,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1782,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 255623
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 272000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 206.69,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 102,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 487,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2327,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 112437,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 147797,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 277848,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1738,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1738,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 259795
}
}
},
"id": "3d01628d8a46",
"incentive_types": [
"preferred_lender"
],
"negotiability_score": 38,
"original_price": 272000,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 272000,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: preferred-lender requirement.",
"sqft": 1316,
"subdivision": "Prairie Rdg Ph III",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "9001 Chalk Maple Drive",
"apr": "5.775%",
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 33.7,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 21.52,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "604 Totem Trail",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "604-totem-trail-harker-heights",
"price": 248000,
"price_per_sqft": 163.91,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1513,
"sqft_delta": 44,
"subdivision": "Skipcha Mountain Estates Ph",
"year_built": 1995
},
{
"address": "1100 Chablis Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1100-chablis-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 220000,
"price_per_sqft": 143.51,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1533,
"sqft_delta": 64,
"subdivision": "The Vineyard",
"year_built": 1994
},
{
"address": "304 Blackfoot Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "304-blackfoot-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 219900,
"price_per_sqft": 156.62,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1404,
"sqft_delta": -65,
"subdivision": "Skipcha Mountain Estates Ph",
"year_built": 1988
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 604 Totem Trail, 1100 Chablis Drive, 304 Blackfoot Drive, this new-construction card is $34/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 156.62,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 190.32,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Killeen",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 16,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 190.32,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2392,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 151912,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -35773,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 336,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 190.32,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2438,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 154647,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -33038,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 382,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 188.41,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2306,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 162488,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -25197,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 250,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 190.32,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2467,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 166171,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -21514,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 411,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 190.32,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2488,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 171630,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -16055,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 432,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 190.32,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2056,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 187685,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 190.32,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 606,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 324305,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 136620,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1450,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 2796,
"down_payment": 13839,
"effective_price": 276777,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 188.41,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 104,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 496,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2306,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 126507,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 162488,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 262938,
"monthly_mi": 131,
"monthly_pi": 1575,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1706,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 246835
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 279573,
"effective_price": 279573,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 190.32,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 105,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 501,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 606,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 287960,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 324305,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 55915,
"effective_price": 279573,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 190.32,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 105,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 501,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2056,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 151340,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 187685,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 223658,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1451,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1451,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 209961
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 13979,
"effective_price": 279573,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 190.32,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 105,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 501,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2488,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 135286,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 171630,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 265594,
"monthly_mi": 133,
"monthly_pi": 1749,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1882,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 249739
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 9785,
"effective_price": 279573,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 190.32,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 105,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 501,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2467,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 129826,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 166171,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 274509,
"monthly_mi": 126,
"monthly_pi": 1735,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1861,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 256971
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 279573,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 190.32,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 105,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 501,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2438,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 118303,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 154647,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 279573,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1832,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1832,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 262740
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 279573,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 190.32,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 105,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 501,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2392,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 115568,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 151912,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 285584,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1786,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1786,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 267028
}
}
},
"id": "a0455d3625fb",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"fixed_rate"
],
"negotiability_score": 37,
"original_price": 279573,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 279573,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": "4.99%",
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, fixed-rate incentive.",
"sqft": 1469,
"subdivision": "Preserve at Thousand Oaks",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "4112 Agulia Ct.",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": -16.54,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": -6.59,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "1110 Northcross Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "1110-northcross-drive-salado",
"price": 627500,
"price_per_sqft": 251.0,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2500,
"sqft_delta": -16,
"subdivision": "Mill Crk Spgs Ph Ix",
"year_built": 2022
},
{
"address": "700 Arrowhead Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "700-arrowhead-drive-salado",
"price": 447000,
"price_per_sqft": 179.81,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2486,
"sqft_delta": -30,
"subdivision": "",
"year_built": 1994
},
{
"address": "8538 Spring Creek Loop",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "8538-spring-creek-loop-salado",
"price": 669900,
"price_per_sqft": 261.88,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2558,
"sqft_delta": 42,
"subdivision": "Spring Crk",
"year_built": 2022
}
],
"favorable": true,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 1110 Northcross Drive, 700 Arrowhead Drive, 8538 Spring Creek Loop, this new-construction card is $17/sqft cheaper on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 251.0,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 234.46,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": null,
"city": "Salado",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 15,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 234.46,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5047,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 320535,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -75481,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 708,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 234.46,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5143,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 326306,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -69710,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 804,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 232.11,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4865,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 342852,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -53164,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 526,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 234.46,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5205,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 350621,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -45395,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 866,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 234.46,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5249,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 362141,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -33875,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 910,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 234.46,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4339,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 396016,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 234.46,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1278,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 684284,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 288268,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -3061,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 5899,
"down_payment": 29200,
"effective_price": 584001,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 232.11,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 219,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1046,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4865,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 266931,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 342852,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 554801,
"monthly_mi": 277,
"monthly_pi": 3323,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3600,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 520823
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 589900,
"effective_price": 589900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 234.46,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 221,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1057,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1278,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 607597,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 684284,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 117980,
"effective_price": 589900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 234.46,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 221,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1057,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4339,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 319329,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 396016,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 471920,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3061,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3061,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 443018
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 29495,
"effective_price": 589900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 234.46,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 221,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1057,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5249,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 285454,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 362141,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 560405,
"monthly_mi": 280,
"monthly_pi": 3691,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3971,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 526950
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 20647,
"effective_price": 589900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 234.46,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 221,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1057,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5205,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 273934,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 350621,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 579215,
"monthly_mi": 265,
"monthly_pi": 3661,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3927,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 542209
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 589900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 234.46,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 221,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1057,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5143,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 249619,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 326306,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 589900,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3865,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3865,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 554383
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 589900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 234.46,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 221,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1057,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 5047,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 243848,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 320535,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 602583,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3769,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3769,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 563430
}
}
},
"id": "8b17e3b6b371",
"incentive_types": [
"closing_costs",
"rate_buydown"
],
"negotiability_score": 37,
"original_price": 589900,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 589900,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: closing-cost concession language, rate buydown language.",
"sqft": 2516,
"subdivision": "Eagle Ranch",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "1206 Rylee Lane",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 8.28,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 3.61,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "10223 Southshore Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "10223-southshore-drive-salado",
"price": 419000,
"price_per_sqft": 236.72,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1770,
"sqft_delta": 1,
"subdivision": "Southshore Sub",
"year_built": 2005
},
{
"address": "1008 Mill Creek Lane",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "1008-mill-creek-lane-salado",
"price": 399000,
"price_per_sqft": 224.16,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1780,
"sqft_delta": 11,
"subdivision": "Mill Creek Sec 2",
"year_built": 1978
},
{
"address": "312 Ow Lowrey",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "312-ow-lowrey-salado",
"price": 394500,
"price_per_sqft": 229.09,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1722,
"sqft_delta": -47,
"subdivision": "Mill Creek Courtyard Village",
"year_built": 2002
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 10223 Southshore Drive, 1008 Mill Creek Lane, 312 Ow Lowrey, this new-construction card is $8/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 229.09,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 237.37,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": null,
"city": "Salado",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 18,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 237.37,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3593,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 228162,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -53728,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 504,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 237.37,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3661,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 232270,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -49620,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 572,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 234.99,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3463,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 244047,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -37843,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 374,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 237.37,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3705,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 249578,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -32312,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 616,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 237.37,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3736,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 257777,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -24113,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 647,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 237.37,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3089,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 281890,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 237.37,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 910,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 487084,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 205194,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -2179,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 4199,
"down_payment": 20785,
"effective_price": 415701,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 234.99,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 156,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 745,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3463,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 190006,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 244047,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 394916,
"monthly_mi": 197,
"monthly_pi": 2365,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2563,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 370730
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 419900,
"effective_price": 419900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 237.37,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 157,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 752,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 910,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 432497,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 487084,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 83980,
"effective_price": 419900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 237.37,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 157,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 752,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3089,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 227303,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 281890,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 335920,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2179,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2179,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 315347
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 20995,
"effective_price": 419900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 237.37,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 157,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 752,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3736,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 203190,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 257777,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 398905,
"monthly_mi": 199,
"monthly_pi": 2627,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2827,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 375092
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 14697,
"effective_price": 419900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 237.37,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 157,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 752,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3705,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 194991,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 249578,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 412295,
"monthly_mi": 189,
"monthly_pi": 2606,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2795,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 385953
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 419900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 237.37,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 157,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 752,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3661,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 177683,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 232270,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 419900,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2751,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2751,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 394618
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 419900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 237.37,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 157,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 752,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3593,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 173575,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 228162,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 428928,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2683,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2683,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 401059
}
}
},
"id": "d367969a9f94",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"preferred_lender"
],
"negotiability_score": 35,
"original_price": 419900,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 419900,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, preferred-lender requirement.",
"sqft": 1769,
"subdivision": "Drakes Lndg Ph II",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "1230 Rylee Lane",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 8.79,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 3.92,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "401 Salado Plaza Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "401-salado-plaza-drive-salado",
"price": 200000,
"price_per_sqft": 108.64,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1841,
"sqft_delta": 17,
"subdivision": "",
"year_built": 1980
},
{
"address": "1008 Mill Creek Lane",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "1008-mill-creek-lane-salado",
"price": 399000,
"price_per_sqft": 224.16,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1780,
"sqft_delta": -44,
"subdivision": "Mill Creek Sec 2",
"year_built": 1978
},
{
"address": "10223 Southshore Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "10223-southshore-drive-salado",
"price": 419000,
"price_per_sqft": 236.72,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1770,
"sqft_delta": -54,
"subdivision": "Southshore Sub",
"year_built": 2005
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 401 Salado Plaza Drive, 1008 Mill Creek Lane, 10223 Southshore Drive, this new-construction card is $9/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 224.16,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 232.95,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": null,
"city": "Salado",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 18,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 232.95,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3636,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 230879,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -54368,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 511,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 232.95,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3705,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 235036,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -50211,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 580,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 230.62,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3505,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 246953,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -38294,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 380,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 232.95,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3749,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 252549,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -32698,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 624,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 232.95,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3781,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 260847,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -24400,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 656,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 232.95,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3125,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 285247,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 232.95,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 921,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 492884,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 207637,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -2204,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 4249,
"down_payment": 21033,
"effective_price": 420651,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 230.62,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 158,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 754,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3505,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 192268,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 246953,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 399618,
"monthly_mi": 200,
"monthly_pi": 2393,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2593,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 375145
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 424900,
"effective_price": 424900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 232.95,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 159,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 761,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 921,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 437647,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 492884,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 84980,
"effective_price": 424900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 232.95,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 159,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 761,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3125,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 230010,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 285247,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 339920,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2205,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2205,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 319102
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 21245,
"effective_price": 424900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 232.95,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 159,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 761,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3781,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 205610,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 260847,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 403655,
"monthly_mi": 202,
"monthly_pi": 2658,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2860,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 379558
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 14872,
"effective_price": 424900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 232.95,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 159,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 761,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3749,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 197312,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 252549,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 417204,
"monthly_mi": 191,
"monthly_pi": 2637,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2828,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 390549
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 424900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 232.95,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 159,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 761,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3705,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 179799,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 235036,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 424900,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2784,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2784,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 399317
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 424900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 232.95,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 159,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 761,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3636,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 175642,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 230879,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 434035,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2715,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2715,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 405834
}
}
},
"id": "a01dcb0921c5",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"preferred_lender"
],
"negotiability_score": 35,
"original_price": 424900,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 424900,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, preferred-lender requirement.",
"sqft": 1824,
"subdivision": "Drakes Lndg Ph 2 Amending Plat",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "1412 Fossil Trail",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 8.81,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 5.74,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "3172 Auction Barn Road",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "3172-auction-barn-road-belton",
"price": 290000,
"price_per_sqft": 147.81,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1962,
"sqft_delta": -9,
"subdivision": "Rolling Acres Sec I",
"year_built": 1986
},
{
"address": "11 E AZTEC Lane",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "11-e-aztec-lane-belton",
"price": 320000,
"price_per_sqft": 163.18,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1961,
"sqft_delta": -10,
"subdivision": "Morgans Point Resort Sec 5",
"year_built": 2015
},
{
"address": "717 Liberty Valley Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "717-liberty-valley-drive-belton",
"price": 305000,
"price_per_sqft": 153.58,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-0-500.csv",
"sqft": 1986,
"sqft_delta": 15,
"subdivision": "Liberty Valley IV",
"year_built": 2019
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 3172 Auction Barn Road, 11 E AZTEC Lane, 717 Liberty Valley Drive, this new-construction card is $9/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 153.58,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 162.39,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": null,
"city": "Belton",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 68,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 162.39,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2739,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 173915,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -40953,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 385,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 162.39,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2791,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 177046,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -37822,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 437,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 160.76,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2640,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 186022,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -28846,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 286,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 162.39,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2824,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 190238,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -24630,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 470,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 162.39,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2848,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 196489,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -18379,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 494,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 162.39,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2354,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 214868,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 162.39,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 693,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 371275,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 156407,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1661,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 3201,
"down_payment": 15843,
"effective_price": 316864,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 160.76,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 119,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 568,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2640,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 144830,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 186022,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 301021,
"monthly_mi": 151,
"monthly_pi": 1803,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1953,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 282585
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 320065,
"effective_price": 320065,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 162.39,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 120,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 573,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 693,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 329667,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 371275,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 64013,
"effective_price": 320065,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 162.39,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 120,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 573,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2354,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 173260,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 214868,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 256052,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1661,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1661,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 240371
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 16003,
"effective_price": 320065,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 162.39,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 120,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 573,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2848,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 154880,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 196489,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 304062,
"monthly_mi": 152,
"monthly_pi": 2003,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2155,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 285910
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 11202,
"effective_price": 320065,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 162.39,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 120,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 573,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2824,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 148630,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 190238,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 314268,
"monthly_mi": 144,
"monthly_pi": 1986,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2130,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 294189
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 320065,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 162.39,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 120,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 573,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2791,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 135437,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 177046,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 320065,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2097,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2097,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 300794
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 320065,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 162.39,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 120,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 573,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2739,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 132306,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 173915,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 326946,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2045,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2045,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 305703
}
}
},
"id": "6b6209db0a42",
"incentive_types": [
"closing_costs"
],
"negotiability_score": 34,
"original_price": 319465,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 320065,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: closing-cost concession language.",
"sqft": 1971,
"subdivision": "Hubbard Branch",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "3200 Privet Drive",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": -3.24,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": -2.15,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "1711 Lynx Circle",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1711-lynx-circle-harker-heights",
"price": 280000,
"price_per_sqft": 150.54,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1860,
"sqft_delta": 2,
"subdivision": "Country Trails Add 6th Ph",
"year_built": 1993
},
{
"address": "308 Live Oak Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "308-live-oak-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 335000,
"price_per_sqft": 180.89,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1852,
"sqft_delta": -6,
"subdivision": "Highland Oaks Estates Sec",
"year_built": 1973
},
{
"address": "220 W Mockingbird Ln",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "220-w-mockingbird-ln-harker-heights",
"price": 235000,
"price_per_sqft": 126.96,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 1851,
"sqft_delta": -7,
"subdivision": "",
"year_built": 1975
}
],
"favorable": true,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 1711 Lynx Circle, 308 Live Oak Drive, 220 W Mockingbird Ln, this new-construction card is $3/sqft cheaper on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 150.54,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 147.3,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": null,
"city": "Killeen",
"closing_credit": 17000,
"dom": 7,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 147.3,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2342,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 140505,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -35020,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 329,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 147.3,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2386,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 143182,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -32343,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 373,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 147.3,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2415,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 154463,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -21062,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 402,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 147.3,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2280,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 155147,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -20378,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 267,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 147.3,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2435,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 159808,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -15717,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 422,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 147.3,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2013,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 175525,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 147.3,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 593,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 309270,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 133745,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1420,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 17000,
"down_payment": 13684,
"effective_price": 273690,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 147.3,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 103,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 490,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2280,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 119567,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 155147,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 260006,
"monthly_mi": 130,
"monthly_pi": 1557,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1687,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 244082
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 17000,
"down_payment": 273690,
"effective_price": 273690,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 147.3,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 103,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 490,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 593,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 273690,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 309270,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 17000,
"down_payment": 54738,
"effective_price": 273690,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 147.3,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 103,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 490,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2013,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 139945,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 175525,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 218952,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1420,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1420,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 205543
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 17000,
"down_payment": 13684,
"effective_price": 273690,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 147.3,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 103,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 490,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2435,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 124228,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 159808,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 260006,
"monthly_mi": 130,
"monthly_pi": 1712,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1842,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 244484
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 17000,
"down_payment": 9579,
"effective_price": 273690,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 147.3,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 103,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 490,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2415,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 118884,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 154463,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 268733,
"monthly_mi": 123,
"monthly_pi": 1699,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1822,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 251563
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 17000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 273690,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 147.3,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 103,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 490,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2386,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 107603,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 143182,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 273690,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1793,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1793,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 257211
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 17000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 273690,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 147.3,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 103,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 490,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2342,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 104925,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 140505,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 279574,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1749,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1749,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 261409
}
}
},
"id": "03ef64f6cfc5",
"incentive_types": [
"closing_costs",
"rate_buydown"
],
"negotiability_score": 34,
"original_price": 290690,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 290690,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: closing-cost concession language, rate buydown language.",
"sqft": 1858,
"subdivision": "Goodnight Ranch",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "1306 Rylee Lane",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": -21.81,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": -9.13,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "8901 Brewer Lane",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "8901-brewer-lane-salado",
"price": 799500,
"price_per_sqft": 327.8,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2439,
"sqft_delta": 3,
"subdivision": "West Amity Estates Rep #1",
"year_built": 1996
},
{
"address": "200 Carriage House Road",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "200-carriage-house-road-salado",
"price": 585000,
"price_per_sqft": 238.97,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2448,
"sqft_delta": 12,
"subdivision": "The Carriage House Estates Of",
"year_built": 2000
},
{
"address": "5507 Hollow Loop",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "5507-hollow-loop-salado",
"price": 534400,
"price_per_sqft": 221.19,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2416,
"sqft_delta": -20,
"subdivision": "Hollow Ranch",
"year_built": 2021
}
],
"favorable": true,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 8901 Brewer Lane, 200 Carriage House Road, 5507 Hollow Loop, this new-construction card is $22/sqft cheaper on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 238.97,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 217.16,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Sandor Homes",
"city": "Salado",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 51,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 217.16,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4526,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 287444,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -67688,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 635,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 217.16,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4612,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 292619,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -62513,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 721,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 214.99,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4363,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 307456,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -47676,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 472,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 217.16,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4667,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 314424,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -40708,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 776,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 217.16,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4707,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 324754,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -30378,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 816,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 217.16,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3891,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 355132,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 217.16,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1146,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 613640,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 258508,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -2745,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 5290,
"down_payment": 26186,
"effective_price": 523710,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 214.99,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 196,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 938,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4363,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 239374,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 307456,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 497524,
"monthly_mi": 249,
"monthly_pi": 2980,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3228,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 467055
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 529000,
"effective_price": 529000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 217.16,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 198,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 948,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1146,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 544870,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 613640,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 105800,
"effective_price": 529000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 217.16,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 198,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 948,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3891,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 286362,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 355132,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 423200,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2745,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2745,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 397282
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 26450,
"effective_price": 529000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 217.16,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 198,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 948,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4707,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 255984,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 324754,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 502550,
"monthly_mi": 251,
"monthly_pi": 3310,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3561,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 472549
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 18515,
"effective_price": 529000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 217.16,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 198,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 948,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4667,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 245654,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 314424,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 519418,
"monthly_mi": 238,
"monthly_pi": 3283,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3521,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 486233
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 529000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 217.16,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 198,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 948,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4612,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 223849,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 292619,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 529000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3466,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3466,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 497150
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 529000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 217.16,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 198,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 948,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4526,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 218674,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 287444,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 540374,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3380,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3380,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 505263
}
}
},
"id": "3620ea2e9c3e",
"incentive_types": [
"preferred_lender"
],
"negotiability_score": 34,
"original_price": 529000,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 529000,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: preferred-lender requirement.",
"sqft": 2436,
"subdivision": "Drakes Lndg Ph II",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "1998 Rosson Street",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 25.34,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 17.18,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "3632 North Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "3632-north-drive-belton",
"price": 459900,
"price_per_sqft": 237.43,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1937,
"sqft_delta": -1,
"subdivision": "Pine Terrace Sub",
"year_built": 1996
},
{
"address": "20 W Nugent Avenue",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "20-w-nugent-avenue-temple",
"price": 285900,
"price_per_sqft": 147.22,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1942,
"sqft_delta": 4,
"subdivision": "",
"year_built": 1942
},
{
"address": "2611 Settlers Oak Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "2611-settlers-oak-drive-belton",
"price": 285000,
"price_per_sqft": 147.52,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1932,
"sqft_delta": -6,
"subdivision": "Hubbard Branch Add Ph",
"year_built": 2021
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 3632 North Drive, 20 W Nugent Avenue, 2611 Settlers Oak Drive, this new-construction card is $25/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 147.52,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 172.86,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Sandor Homes",
"city": "Nolanville",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 9,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.86,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2866,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 182030,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -42865,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 402,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.86,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2921,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 185307,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -39588,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 457,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 171.13,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2763,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 194703,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -30192,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 299,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.86,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2956,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 199115,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -25780,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 492,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.86,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2981,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 205657,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -19238,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 517,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.86,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2464,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 224895,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.86,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 726,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 388600,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 163705,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1738,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 3350,
"down_payment": 16582,
"effective_price": 331650,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 171.13,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 124,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 594,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2763,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 151588,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 194703,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 315068,
"monthly_mi": 158,
"monthly_pi": 1887,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2044,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 295772
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 335000,
"effective_price": 335000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.86,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 126,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 600,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 726,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 345050,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 388600,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 67000,
"effective_price": 335000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.86,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 126,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 600,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2464,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 181345,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 224895,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 268000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1738,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1738,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 251587
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 16750,
"effective_price": 335000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.86,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 126,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 600,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2981,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 162107,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 205657,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 318250,
"monthly_mi": 159,
"monthly_pi": 2096,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2255,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 299251
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 11725,
"effective_price": 335000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.86,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 126,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 600,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2956,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 155565,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 199115,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 328932,
"monthly_mi": 151,
"monthly_pi": 2079,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2230,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 307917
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 335000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.86,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 126,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 600,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2921,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 141757,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 185307,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 335000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2195,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2195,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 314830
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 335000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 172.86,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 126,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 600,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2866,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 138480,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 182030,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 342202,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2140,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2140,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 319968
}
}
},
"id": "09d8ca866a2d",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"preferred_lender"
],
"negotiability_score": 32,
"original_price": 335000,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 335000,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, preferred-lender requirement.",
"sqft": 1938,
"subdivision": "Warriors Legacy Ph 2-B",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "3107 Atascosa Drive",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 83.15,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 80.96,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "212 W Killen Lane",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "212-w-killen-lane-temple",
"price": 145000,
"price_per_sqft": 93.25,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-0-500.csv",
"sqft": 1555,
"sqft_delta": 0,
"subdivision": "Bellaire North Sec 2",
"year_built": 1966
},
{
"address": "425 Weeping Willow Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "425-weeping-willow-drive-temple",
"price": 265000,
"price_per_sqft": 170.42,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-14-2026-mls-templebelton.csv",
"sqft": 1555,
"sqft_delta": 0,
"subdivision": "Windmill Farms Ph One",
"year_built": 2007
},
{
"address": "419 King Circle",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "419-king-circle-temple",
"price": 159999,
"price_per_sqft": 102.7,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1558,
"sqft_delta": 3,
"subdivision": "Jackson Park Manor",
"year_built": 1952
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 212 W Killen Lane, 425 Weeping Willow Drive, 419 King Circle, this new-construction card is $83/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 102.7,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 185.85,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Jubilee Homes",
"city": "Temple",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 60,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.85,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2473,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 157035,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -36979,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 347,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.85,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2520,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 159862,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -34152,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 394,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 183.99,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2384,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 167968,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -26046,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 258,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.85,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2550,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 171774,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -22240,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 424,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.85,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2572,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 177418,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -16596,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 446,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.85,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2126,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 194014,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.85,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 626,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 335240,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 141226,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1500,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 2890,
"down_payment": 14306,
"effective_price": 286110,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 183.99,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 107,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 513,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2384,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 130773,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 167968,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 271804,
"monthly_mi": 136,
"monthly_pi": 1628,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1764,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 255158
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 289000,
"effective_price": 289000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.85,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 108,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 518,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 626,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 297670,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 335240,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 57800,
"effective_price": 289000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.85,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 108,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 518,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2126,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 156444,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 194014,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 231200,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1500,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1500,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 217041
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 14450,
"effective_price": 289000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.85,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 108,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 518,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2572,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 139848,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 177418,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 274550,
"monthly_mi": 137,
"monthly_pi": 1808,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1945,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 258160
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 10115,
"effective_price": 289000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.85,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 108,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 518,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2550,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 134204,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 171774,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 283765,
"monthly_mi": 130,
"monthly_pi": 1794,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1924,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 265636
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 289000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.85,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 108,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 518,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2520,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 122292,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 159862,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 289000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1894,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1894,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 271600
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 289000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.85,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 108,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 518,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2473,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 119465,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 157035,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 295214,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1847,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1847,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 276032
}
}
},
"id": "f9ae74930275",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings"
],
"negotiability_score": 32,
"original_price": 289000,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 289000,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language.",
"sqft": 1555,
"subdivision": "County View",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "1312 Rylee Lane",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": -0.07,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": -0.03,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "11010 La Paloma Loop",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "11010-la-paloma-loop-salado",
"price": 584000,
"price_per_sqft": 270.87,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2156,
"sqft_delta": -8,
"subdivision": "La Paloma Sub",
"year_built": 2014
},
{
"address": "1601 Guess Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "1601-guess-drive-salado",
"price": 500000,
"price_per_sqft": 226.04,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2212,
"sqft_delta": 48,
"subdivision": "Chisholm Trail Ph 1",
"year_built": 1996
},
{
"address": "5513 Hollow Loop",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "5513-hollow-loop-salado",
"price": 475000,
"price_per_sqft": 214.64,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2213,
"sqft_delta": 49,
"subdivision": "Hollow Ranch",
"year_built": 2021
}
],
"favorable": true,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 11010 La Paloma Loop, 1601 Guess Drive, 5513 Hollow Loop, this new-construction card is $0/sqft cheaper on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 226.04,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 225.97,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Sandor Homes",
"city": "Salado",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 43,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 225.97,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4184,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 265709,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -62570,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 587,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 225.97,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4264,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 270493,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -57786,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 667,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 223.71,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4033,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 284208,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -44071,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 436,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 225.97,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4314,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 290649,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -37630,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 717,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 225.97,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4351,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 300198,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -28081,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 754,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 225.97,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3597,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 328279,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 225.97,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1060,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 567240,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 238961,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -2537,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 4890,
"down_payment": 24206,
"effective_price": 484110,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 223.71,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 182,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 867,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4033,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 221274,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 284208,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 459904,
"monthly_mi": 230,
"monthly_pi": 2754,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2984,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 431739
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 489000,
"effective_price": 489000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 225.97,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 183,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 876,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1060,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 503670,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 567240,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 97800,
"effective_price": 489000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 225.97,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 183,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 876,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3597,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 264709,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 328279,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 391200,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2537,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2537,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 367242
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 24450,
"effective_price": 489000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 225.97,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 183,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 876,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4351,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 236628,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 300198,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 464550,
"monthly_mi": 232,
"monthly_pi": 3060,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3292,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 436818
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 17115,
"effective_price": 489000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 225.97,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 183,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 876,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4314,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 227079,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 290649,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 480143,
"monthly_mi": 220,
"monthly_pi": 3035,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3255,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 449467
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 489000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 225.97,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 183,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 876,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4264,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 206923,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 270493,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 489000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3204,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3204,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 459558
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 489000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 225.97,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 183,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 876,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4184,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 202139,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 265709,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 499514,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3124,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3124,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 467058
}
}
},
"id": "54ba59901016",
"incentive_types": [
"preferred_lender"
],
"negotiability_score": 31,
"original_price": 489000,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 489000,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: preferred-lender requirement.",
"sqft": 2164,
"subdivision": "Drakes Lndg Ph 2",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "1218 Rylee Lane",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 14.38,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 6.72,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "2068 Pirtle Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "2068-pirtle-drive-salado",
"price": 449900,
"price_per_sqft": 214.14,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2101,
"sqft_delta": 1,
"subdivision": "Salado Lakeview Fka Cedar Kno",
"year_built": 2012
},
{
"address": "8099 Fm 2484",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "8099-fm-2484-salado",
"price": 389900,
"price_per_sqft": 188.27,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2071,
"sqft_delta": -29,
"subdivision": "Salado Spgs Estates Sec",
"year_built": 1999
},
{
"address": "11010 La Paloma Loop",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "11010-la-paloma-loop-salado",
"price": 584000,
"price_per_sqft": 270.87,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2156,
"sqft_delta": 56,
"subdivision": "La Paloma Sub",
"year_built": 2014
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 2068 Pirtle Drive, 8099 Fm 2484, 11010 La Paloma Loop, this new-construction card is $14/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 214.14,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 228.52,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": null,
"city": "Salado",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 1,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 228.52,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4106,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 260764,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -61406,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 576,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 228.52,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4184,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 265459,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -56711,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 654,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 226.24,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3958,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 278919,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -43251,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 428,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 228.52,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4234,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 285240,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -36930,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 704,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 228.52,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4270,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 294612,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -27558,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 740,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 228.52,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3530,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 322170,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 228.52,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1040,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 556684,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 234514,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -2490,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 4799,
"down_payment": 23755,
"effective_price": 475101,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 226.24,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 178,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 851,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3958,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 217156,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 278919,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 451346,
"monthly_mi": 226,
"monthly_pi": 2703,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2929,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 423704
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 479900,
"effective_price": 479900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 228.52,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 180,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 860,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1040,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 494297,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 556684,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 95980,
"effective_price": 479900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 228.52,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 180,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 860,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3530,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 259783,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 322170,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 383920,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2490,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2490,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 360408
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 23995,
"effective_price": 479900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 228.52,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 180,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 860,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4270,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 232225,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 294612,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 455905,
"monthly_mi": 228,
"monthly_pi": 3003,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3231,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 428689
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 16796,
"effective_price": 479900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 228.52,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 180,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 860,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4234,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 222853,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 285240,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 471208,
"monthly_mi": 216,
"monthly_pi": 2978,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3194,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 441102
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 479900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 228.52,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 180,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 860,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4184,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 203072,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 265459,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 479900,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3145,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3145,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 451006
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 479900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 228.52,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 180,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 860,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4106,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 198377,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 260764,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 490218,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3066,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3066,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 458366
}
}
},
"id": "dbccd14edf0c",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings",
"preferred_lender"
],
"negotiability_score": 29,
"original_price": 479900,
"preferred_lender_required": true,
"price": 479900,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language, preferred-lender requirement.",
"sqft": 2100,
"subdivision": "Drakes Lndg Ph II",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "3111 Atascosa Drive",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 27.38,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 17.27,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "4013 Valley View Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "4013-valley-view-drive-temple",
"price": 240000,
"price_per_sqft": 149.35,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1607,
"sqft_delta": 4,
"subdivision": "Trailwood",
"year_built": 1977
},
{
"address": "3002 Clevelander Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "3002-clevelander-drive-temple",
"price": 254900,
"price_per_sqft": 158.52,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1608,
"sqft_delta": 5,
"subdivision": "South Pointe Ph I",
"year_built": 2019
},
{
"address": "909 W Park Avenue",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "909-w-park-avenue-temple",
"price": 270000,
"price_per_sqft": 167.91,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1608,
"sqft_delta": 5,
"subdivision": "L Moore",
"year_built": 1954
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 4013 Valley View Drive, 3002 Clevelander Drive, 909 W Park Avenue, this new-construction card is $27/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 158.52,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 185.9,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": null,
"city": "Temple",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 50,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.9,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2550,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 161925,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -38130,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 358,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.9,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2598,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 164840,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -35215,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 406,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 184.04,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2458,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 173198,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -26857,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 266,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.9,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2629,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 177123,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -22932,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 437,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.9,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2652,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 182943,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -17112,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 460,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.9,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2192,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 200055,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.9,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 646,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 345680,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 145625,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -1546,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 2980,
"down_payment": 14751,
"effective_price": 295020,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 184.04,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 111,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 529,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2458,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 134846,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 173198,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 280269,
"monthly_mi": 140,
"monthly_pi": 1679,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1819,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 263105
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 298000,
"effective_price": 298000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.9,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 112,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 534,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 646,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 306940,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 345680,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 59600,
"effective_price": 298000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.9,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 112,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 534,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2192,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 161315,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 200055,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 238400,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1546,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1546,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 223800
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 14900,
"effective_price": 298000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.9,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 112,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 534,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2652,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 144203,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 182943,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 283100,
"monthly_mi": 142,
"monthly_pi": 1864,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2006,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 266200
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 10430,
"effective_price": 298000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.9,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 112,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 534,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2629,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 138383,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 177123,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 292602,
"monthly_mi": 134,
"monthly_pi": 1849,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1984,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 273908
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 298000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.9,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 112,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 534,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2598,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 126100,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 164840,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 298000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1953,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1953,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 280058
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 298000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 185.9,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 112,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 534,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2550,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 123185,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 161925,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 304407,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 1904,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 1904,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 284628
}
}
},
"id": "1c1e8062c766",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings"
],
"negotiability_score": 28,
"original_price": 298000,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 298000,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language.",
"sqft": 1603,
"subdivision": "County View Add",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "15019 Planeview Drive",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": -14.2,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": -6.28,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "11010 La Paloma Loop",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "11010-la-paloma-loop-salado",
"price": 584000,
"price_per_sqft": 270.87,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2156,
"sqft_delta": -15,
"subdivision": "La Paloma Sub",
"year_built": 2014
},
{
"address": "1601 Guess Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "1601-guess-drive-salado",
"price": 500000,
"price_per_sqft": 226.04,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2212,
"sqft_delta": 41,
"subdivision": "Chisholm Trail Ph 1",
"year_built": 1996
},
{
"address": "5513 Hollow Loop",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "5513-hollow-loop-salado",
"price": 475000,
"price_per_sqft": 214.64,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2213,
"sqft_delta": 42,
"subdivision": "Hollow Ranch",
"year_built": 2021
}
],
"favorable": true,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 11010 La Paloma Loop, 1601 Guess Drive, 5513 Hollow Loop, this new-construction card is $14/sqft cheaper on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 226.04,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 211.84,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": null,
"city": "Salado",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 5,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 211.84,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3935,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 249897,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -58846,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 552,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 211.84,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4010,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 254396,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -54347,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 627,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 209.72,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3793,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 267295,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -41448,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 410,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 211.84,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4058,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 273352,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -35391,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 675,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 211.84,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4092,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 282334,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -26409,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 709,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 211.84,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3383,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 308743,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 211.84,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 996,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 533484,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 224741,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -2387,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 4599,
"down_payment": 22765,
"effective_price": 455301,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 209.72,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 171,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 816,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3793,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 208106,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 267295,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 432536,
"monthly_mi": 216,
"monthly_pi": 2590,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2807,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 406046
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 459900,
"effective_price": 459900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 211.84,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 172,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 824,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 996,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 473697,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 533484,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 91980,
"effective_price": 459900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 211.84,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 172,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 824,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3383,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 248956,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 308743,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 367920,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2386,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2386,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 345388
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 22995,
"effective_price": 459900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 211.84,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 172,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 824,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4092,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 222547,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 282334,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 436905,
"monthly_mi": 218,
"monthly_pi": 2877,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3096,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 410823
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 16097,
"effective_price": 459900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 211.84,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 172,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 824,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4058,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 213565,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 273352,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 451570,
"monthly_mi": 207,
"monthly_pi": 2854,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3061,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 422719
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 459900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 211.84,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 172,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 824,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4010,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 194609,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 254396,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 459900,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3014,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3014,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 432210
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 459900,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 211.84,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 172,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 824,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3935,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 190110,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 249897,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 469788,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2939,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2939,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 439264
}
}
},
"id": "ee87cd986f8a",
"incentive_types": [
"rate_buydown"
],
"negotiability_score": 21,
"original_price": 459900,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 459900,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: rate buydown language.",
"sqft": 2171,
"subdivision": "Friedrich Estates",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "15938 Brazos Drive",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 53.33,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 32.78,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "7312 Abalone Way",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "7312-abalone-way-temple",
"price": 305000,
"price_per_sqft": 162.67,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1875,
"sqft_delta": 0,
"subdivision": "Hills Of Westwood Ph Ix",
"year_built": 2018
},
{
"address": "8710 Surrey Court",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "8710-surrey-court-temple",
"price": 310000,
"price_per_sqft": 165.33,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1875,
"sqft_delta": 0,
"subdivision": "Carriage House Village Ph I",
"year_built": 2005
},
{
"address": "4001 Trailwood Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Temple",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "4001-trailwood-drive-temple",
"price": 250000,
"price_per_sqft": 133.19,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 1877,
"sqft_delta": 2,
"subdivision": "Trailwood",
"year_built": 1981
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 7312 Abalone Way, 8710 Surrey Court, 4001 Trailwood Drive, this new-construction card is $53/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 162.67,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 216.0,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": null,
"city": "Temple",
"closing_credit": 20000,
"dom": 18,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 216.0,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3465,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 207916,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -51821,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 486,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 216.0,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3531,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 211878,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -47859,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 552,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 216.0,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3573,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 228571,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -31166,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 594,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 216.0,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3374,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 229583,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -30154,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 395,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 216.0,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3604,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 236480,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -23257,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 625,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 216.0,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2979,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 259737,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 216.0,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 878,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 457650,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 197913,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -2101,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 20000,
"down_payment": 20250,
"effective_price": 405000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 216.0,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 152,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 726,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3374,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 176933,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 229583,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 384750,
"monthly_mi": 192,
"monthly_pi": 2304,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2497,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 361187
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 20000,
"down_payment": 405000,
"effective_price": 405000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 216.0,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 152,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 726,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 878,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 405000,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 457650,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 20000,
"down_payment": 81000,
"effective_price": 405000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 216.0,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 152,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 726,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 2979,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 207087,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 259737,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 324000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2101,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2101,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 304157
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 20000,
"down_payment": 20250,
"effective_price": 405000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 216.0,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 152,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 726,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3604,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 183830,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 236480,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 384750,
"monthly_mi": 192,
"monthly_pi": 2534,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2726,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 361782
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 20000,
"down_payment": 14175,
"effective_price": 405000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 216.0,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 152,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 726,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3573,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 175921,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 228571,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 397664,
"monthly_mi": 182,
"monthly_pi": 2514,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2696,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 372258
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 20000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 405000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 216.0,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 152,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 726,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3531,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 159228,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 211878,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 405000,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2654,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2654,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 380615
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 20000,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 405000,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 216.0,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 152,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 726,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3465,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 155266,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 207916,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 413708,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2588,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2588,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 386827
}
}
},
"id": "2ce316cad086",
"incentive_types": [
"closing_costs"
],
"negotiability_score": 18,
"original_price": 425000,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 425000,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: closing-cost concession language.",
"sqft": 1875,
"subdivision": "Tanglewood",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2025
},
{
"address": "6649 King Oaks Boulevard",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 17.28,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 7.6,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "8841 Brewer Lane",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "8841-brewer-lane-salado",
"price": 1200000,
"price_per_sqft": 360.04,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 3333,
"sqft_delta": -9,
"subdivision": "",
"year_built": 2000
},
{
"address": "8219 Collins Creek Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "8219-collins-creek-drive-salado",
"price": 750000,
"price_per_sqft": 227.34,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 3299,
"sqft_delta": -43,
"subdivision": "Spring Crk",
"year_built": 2019
},
{
"address": "2422 Smith Bluff Road",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Salado",
"city_relation": "same_city",
"id": "2422-smith-bluff-road-salado",
"price": 575000,
"price_per_sqft": 176.6,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 3256,
"sqft_delta": -86,
"subdivision": "Mill Creek Sec 14",
"year_built": 1986
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 8841 Brewer Lane, 8219 Collins Creek Drive, 2422 Smith Bluff Road, this new-construction card is $17/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 227.34,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 244.62,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Salado",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 12,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 244.62,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6995,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 444210,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -104604,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 982,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 244.62,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 7128,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 452208,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -96606,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 1115,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 242.17,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6743,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 475137,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -73677,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 730,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 244.62,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 7213,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 485904,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -62910,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 1200,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 244.62,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 7274,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 501869,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -46945,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 1261,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 244.62,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6013,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 548814,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 244.62,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1771,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 948307,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 399493,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -4242,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 8175,
"down_payment": 40467,
"effective_price": 809331,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 242.17,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 303,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1450,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6743,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 369924,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 475137,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 768864,
"monthly_mi": 384,
"monthly_pi": 4605,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4989,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 721777
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 817506,
"effective_price": 817506,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 244.62,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 307,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1465,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1771,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 842031,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 948307,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 163501,
"effective_price": 817506,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 244.62,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 307,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1465,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6013,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 442538,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 548814,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 654005,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 4242,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 4242,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 613952
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 40875,
"effective_price": 817506,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 244.62,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 307,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1465,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 7274,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 395593,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 501869,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 776631,
"monthly_mi": 388,
"monthly_pi": 5115,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 5503,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 730268
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 28613,
"effective_price": 817506,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 244.62,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 307,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1465,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 7213,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 379628,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 485904,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 802699,
"monthly_mi": 368,
"monthly_pi": 5074,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 5442,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 751414
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 817506,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 244.62,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 307,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1465,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 7128,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 345932,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 452208,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 817506,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 5357,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 5357,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 768285
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 817506,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 244.62,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 307,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 1465,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 6995,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 337935,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 444210,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 835082,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 5223,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 5223,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 780824
}
}
},
"id": "1f8c15fc2bf1",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings"
],
"negotiability_score": 16,
"original_price": 817506,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 817506,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language.",
"sqft": 3342,
"subdivision": "King Oaks",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "3070 Bella Vita Drive",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 82.05,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 59.64,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "1808 N Beal Street",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1808-n-beal-street-belton",
"price": 299900,
"price_per_sqft": 129.38,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2318,
"sqft_delta": -4,
"subdivision": "Oakdale",
"year_built": 1967
},
{
"address": "713 Bighorn Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "713-bighorn-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 320000,
"price_per_sqft": 137.58,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 2326,
"sqft_delta": 4,
"subdivision": "Skipcha Mountain Estates Ph",
"year_built": 2005
},
{
"address": "4405 Pawnee Trail",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "4405-pawnee-trail-harker-heights",
"price": 330000,
"price_per_sqft": 142.36,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 2318,
"sqft_delta": -4,
"subdivision": "Broken Arrow Lake Estates Sec",
"year_built": 1971
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 1808 N Beal Street, 713 Bighorn Drive, 4405 Pawnee Trail, this new-construction card is $82/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 137.58,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 219.63,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Nolanville",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 11,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 219.63,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4364,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 277115,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -65255,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 613,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 219.63,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4447,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 282104,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -60266,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 696,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 217.44,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4206,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 296407,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -45963,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 455,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 219.63,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4500,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 303125,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -39245,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 749,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 219.63,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4538,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 313084,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -29286,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 787,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 219.63,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3751,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 342370,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 219.63,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1105,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 591588,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 249218,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -2646,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 5100,
"down_payment": 25244,
"effective_price": 504890,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 217.44,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 189,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 905,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4206,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 230772,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 296407,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 479646,
"monthly_mi": 240,
"monthly_pi": 2873,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3112,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 450271
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 509990,
"effective_price": 509990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 219.63,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 191,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 914,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1105,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 525290,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 591588,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 101998,
"effective_price": 509990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 219.63,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 191,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 914,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3751,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 276071,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 342370,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 407992,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2646,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2646,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 383005
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 25500,
"effective_price": 509990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 219.63,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 191,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 914,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4538,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 246785,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 313084,
"initial_rate": 0.069,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.069,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"loan_amount": 484490,
"monthly_mi": 242,
"monthly_pi": 3191,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3433,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 455568
},
"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 17850,
"effective_price": 509990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 219.63,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 191,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 914,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4500,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 236826,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 303125,
"initial_rate": 0.065,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.065,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"loan_amount": 500753,
"monthly_mi": 230,
"monthly_pi": 3165,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3395,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 468760
},
"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 509990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 219.63,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 191,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 914,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4447,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 215805,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 282104,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 509990,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3342,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3342,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 479284
},
"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 509990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 219.63,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 191,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 914,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4364,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 210816,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 277115,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 520955,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 3259,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3259,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 487106
}
}
},
"id": "5d8a5da78483",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings"
],
"negotiability_score": 15,
"original_price": 509990,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 509990,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language.",
"sqft": 2322,
"subdivision": "Bella Charca",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
},
{
"address": "3065 Bella Vita Drive",
"apr": null,
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"arbitrage_delta_per_sqft": 90.67,
"arbitrage_delta_percent": 65.9,
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"comp_count": 3,
"comps": [
{
"address": "1808 N Beal Street",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Belton",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "1808-n-beal-street-belton",
"price": 299900,
"price_per_sqft": 129.38,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/temple-belton-salado-active-sold-0-550.csv",
"sqft": 2318,
"sqft_delta": -4,
"subdivision": "Oakdale",
"year_built": 1967
},
{
"address": "713 Bighorn Drive",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "713-bighorn-drive-harker-heights",
"price": 320000,
"price_per_sqft": 137.58,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 2326,
"sqft_delta": 4,
"subdivision": "Skipcha Mountain Estates Ph",
"year_built": 2005
},
{
"address": "4405 Pawnee Trail",
"bathrooms": null,
"bedrooms": null,
"city": "Harker Heights",
"city_relation": "adjacent_city",
"id": "4405-pawnee-trail-harker-heights",
"price": 330000,
"price_per_sqft": 142.36,
"source": "/Users/taylordasch_1/market-monitor/05-08-26-update.csv",
"sqft": 2318,
"sqft_delta": -4,
"subdivision": "Broken Arrow Lake Estates Sec",
"year_built": 1971
}
],
"favorable": false,
"honest_writeup": "Compared with 1808 N Beal Street, 713 Bighorn Drive, 4405 Pawnee Trail, this new-construction card is $91/sqft more expensive on an effective conventional_20 basis. Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"median_resale_price_per_sqft": 137.58,
"new_effective_price_per_sqft": 228.25,
"scenario": "conventional_20",
"source": "local_csv_fallback",
"status": "matched"
},
"builder": "Flintrock Builders",
"city": "Nolanville",
"closing_credit": null,
"dom": 11,
"effective_pricing": {
"caveat": "Detected incentives must be verified with the builder before offer terms, rate locks, or lender comparisons are treated as final. MUD/PID/HOA dues, tax rate differences, insurance, lot premiums, and lender fees can change the real monthly comparison.",
"config_as_of": "2026-05-21",
"five_year_total_cost_comparison": {
"baseline_scenario": "conventional_20",
"comparison_note": "Comparison is a five-year cash-out estimate using configured rates, taxes, insurance, HOA/MUD/PID assumptions, mortgage insurance, and applicable upfront fees.",
"lowest_five_year_total_cost_scenario": "va_0",
"lowest_monthly_total_scenario": "cash",
"scenario_count": 7,
"scenarios": [
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 228.25,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4535,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 287982,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -67815,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 637,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 1,
"scenario": "va_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 228.25,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4621,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 293167,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -62630,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 723,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 2,
"scenario": "physician_0"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 225.96,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4371,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 308032,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -47765,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 473,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 3,
"scenario": "builder_captive"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 228.25,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4676,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 315012,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -40785,
"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 778,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 4,
"scenario": "fha_3_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 228.25,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4716,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 325362,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": -30435,
"label": "Conventional 5% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 818,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 5,
"scenario": "conventional_5"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 228.25,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3898,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 355797,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": 0,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 6,
"scenario": "conventional_20"
},
{
"effective_price_per_sqft": 228.25,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1148,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 614788,
"five_year_total_delta_vs_baseline": 258991,
"label": "Cash",
"monthly_total_delta_vs_baseline": -2750,
"rank_by_five_year_total_cost": 7,
"scenario": "cash"
}
]
},
"method_note": "Five-year total cost estimates include configured taxes, insurance, HOA, and MUD/PID adjustments; utilities, maintenance, and resale costs are not modeled.",
"rate_source_note": "Local config defaults; update before production buyer advice.",
"scenarios": {
"builder_captive": {
"detected_incentive_value": 5300,
"down_payment": 26234,
"effective_price": 524690,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 225.96,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 197,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 940,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4371,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 239822,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 308032,
"initial_rate": 0.0599,
"initial_rate_months": 24,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Builder-captive preferred lender",
"loan_amount": 498456,
"monthly_mi": 249,
"monthly_pi": 2985,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3235,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 467929
},
"cash": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 529990,
"effective_price": 529990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 228.25,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 199,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 950,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 1148,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 545890,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 614788,
"initial_rate": 0.0,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0,
"label": "Cash",
"loan_amount": 0,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 0,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 0,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 0
},
"conventional_20": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 105998,
"effective_price": 529990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 228.25,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 199,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 950,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 3898,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 286898,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 355797,
"initial_rate": 0.0675,
"initial_rate_months": 60,
"interest_rate": 0.0675,
"label": "Conventional 20% down",
"loan_amount": 423992,
"monthly_mi": 0,
"monthly_pi": 2750,
"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 2750,
"price_cut_already_reflected": 0,
"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 398025
},
"conventional_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 26500,
"effective_price": 529990,
"effective_price_per_sqft": 228.25,
"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 199,
"estimated_monthly_tax": 950,
"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4716,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 256463,
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"fha_3_5": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
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"label": "FHA 3.5% down",
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"physician_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
"down_payment": 0,
"effective_price": 529990,
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"estimated_monthly_hoa_mud_pid": 0,
"estimated_monthly_insurance": 199,
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"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4621,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 224268,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 293167,
"initial_rate": 0.0685,
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"interest_rate": 0.0685,
"label": "Physician loan 0% down",
"loan_amount": 529990,
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"monthly_pi_plus_mi": 3473,
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"va_0": {
"detected_incentive_value": 0,
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"effective_price": 529990,
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"estimated_monthly_total_with_ti_hoa": 4535,
"five_year_total_before_tax_insurance_hoa": 219083,
"five_year_total_cost_estimate": 287982,
"initial_rate": 0.064,
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"interest_rate": 0.064,
"label": "VA 0% down",
"loan_amount": 541385,
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"remaining_balance_after_5_years": 506209
}
}
},
"id": "dd1c03b4e081",
"incentive_types": [
"exclusive_savings"
],
"negotiability_score": 15,
"original_price": 529990,
"preferred_lender_required": false,
"price": 529990,
"price_cut": 0,
"rate": null,
"source_summary": "Detected from MLS export: limited incentive language.",
"sqft": 2322,
"subdivision": "Bella Charca",
"verification_status": "detected",
"year_built": 2026
}
],
"extensions": {
"arbitrage_analysis": {
"generated_at": "2026-05-29T11:47:03-05:00",
"resale_record_count": 1063,
"source": "local_csv_fallback"
},
"effective_pricing": {
"config_path": "/Users/taylordasch_1/clawdbot_common/builder-incentive-config.json",
"generated_at": "2026-05-29T11:47:02-05:00",
"scenario_count": 7
}
},
"generated_at": "2026-05-29T11:47:02-05:00",
"markets": [
{
"active_incentives": 13,
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},
{
"active_incentives": 3,
"city": "Harker Heights"
},
{
"active_incentives": 37,
"city": "Killeen"
},
{
"active_incentives": 30,
"city": "Nolanville"
},
{
"active_incentives": 26,
"city": "Salado"
},
{
"active_incentives": 56,
"city": "Temple"
},
{
"active_incentives": 7,
"city": "Troy"
}
],
"schema_version": 1,
"source": "new-construction-mls-data.csv",
"stale_after_hours": 48,
"stats": {
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"featured_builder": "Nirmaan Builders LLC",
"featured_city": "Belton",
"markets_tracked": 7
}
}